Big League Stew Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

[gunnarthor]

 

Yeah, except the 2015 DH numbers would look a whole lot better if Sano had been the DH all season. Before he was up, they had 0 home runs from the DH spot.

Honestly, I don't even remember who was the DH before July. Nunez? Hunter and Mauer sprinkled in?

Mostly Vargas.  

[gunnarthor]

 

You have pretty flawed reasoning here.  Sano was the DH entering this offseason... why does the Twins general DH production from last April - June matter in your equation?  Park isn't replacing Vargas' 3 months at DH, he is replacing Sano for 6 months at DH

We're looking at whether the 2016 team has upgraded over the 2015 team. The 2015 team (as a whole) didn't produce much out of the DH position.  I think what you and Levi are attempting to argue is that Sano would be a better DH and the Twins should leave him there and worry about other stuff.  That may be a valid point but it's not quite what this discussion is.  Park should be able to replicate and improve on the overall production we got from the DH position last year.  

 

Also, Sano was never going to be just the DH.  The team was pretty adamant about making him play in the field.  He's too young to become just a DH at this point.  Longterm, I still think he ends up at firstbase but he can hold down RF for a few years. 

[Vanimal46]

I just got an exclusive interview with Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore after reading this report...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aot3MyQJUOY

[alarp33]

 

We're looking at whether the 2016 team has upgraded over the 2015 team. The 2015 team (as a whole) didn't produce much out of the DH position.  I think what you and Levi are attempting to argue is that Sano would be a better DH and the Twins should leave him there and worry about other stuff.  That may be a valid point but it's not quite what this discussion is.  Park should be able to replicate and improve on the overall production we got from the DH position last year.  

 

Also, Sano was never going to be just the DH.  The team was pretty adamant about making him play in the field.  He's too young to become just a DH at this point.  Longterm, I still think he ends up at firstbase but he can hold down RF for a few years. 

 

We are talking about this offseason. You said specifically they upgraded at DH and RF. 

 

October 2015 ---> Present

 

DH: Sano ----> Park

RF: Hunter ----> Sano

 

One of those is an upgrade, the other is not

[bluechipper]

 

Yeah, except the 2015 DH numbers would look a whole lot better if Sano had been the DH all season. Before he was up, they had 0 home runs from the DH spot.

Honestly, I don't even remember who was the DH before July. Nunez? Hunter and Mauer sprinkled in?

A full season of Park at DH should hopefully be an improvement over nothing/half a season from Sano and a full season of Sano in RF instead of Torii will boost both position's production.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Actually, 44 according to fangraphs.  But that's beside the point.  That's steamer's projection.  As bluechipper noted, Twins DH's line was substantially below that - .759 OPS.  He should hit enough to be an upgrade.  Which is what my original post said.  I happen to think he'll be substantially better than the .759 line but we'll see.  

 

Fangraphs had not counted some of the misc. hitters mixed in, but 450 of the 550 at-bats (Vargas and Sano) were .807.  Assuming that Park basically replaces that it doesn't change my point.  He'll have to outproduce that stat line, not the cobbled numbers of Mauer, Nunez, and others.

[bird]

 

What should it be?

 

 

To clarify, I'm grading Cwik's pathetic work here. My own Twin's grade would probably be a C, although INCOMPLETE would be the appropriate grade at this point untll we know how Park, Murphy, and the pitching staff works out.

 

In my old job, if a stock analyst graded a stock and was more articulate about his grade than about his underlying assumptions, he was sent off to work for the competition pronto.

 

If Cwik said he believed Park was a poor move, great. He gets a C-. He instead said they "did nothing". A stupid and lazy and false statement. D-, you're fired.

[TheLeviathan]

 

We're looking at whether the 2016 team has upgraded over the 2015 team. The 2015 team (as a whole) didn't produce much out of the DH position.  I think what you and Levi are attempting to argue is that Sano would be a better DH and the Twins should leave him there and worry about other stuff.  That may be a valid point but it's not quite what this discussion is.  Park should be able to replicate and improve on the overall production we got from the DH position last year.  

 

Also, Sano was never going to be just the DH.  The team was pretty adamant about making him play in the field.  He's too young to become just a DH at this point.  Longterm, I still think he ends up at firstbase but he can hold down RF for a few years. 

 

No, I'm arguing Park/Sano is not a clear upgrade over Sano/Hunter.  

 

And it's not.  Worse yet, you tried to count both positions as upgrades by fudging the argument to make it look like it's possible.  The real question is if that combo is an upgrade and that's far from clear.  I

[TheLeviathan]

 

I did like the Lowe deal comparatively to what other relievers received. But we're talking about the third guy in the bullpen (even if he's on par with Jepsen and Perkins, that's essentially how it play out) and Lowe would be a tremendous upgrade to Fien certainly, but this can't be the sort of missed opportunity that pushes the Twins offseason to an obvious and abysmal failure. 

 

My point is that what we'd have them actually do would in fact be incremental towards their success.

 

Who is arguing it dooms them to failure?  The argument is that missing out on that upgrade and doing nothing with a bullpen the team itself identified as a priority...probably means we don't need to get our pitchforks out about a D for the moves done or not done to help the team.  Probably has some merit.

[gunnarthor]

 

We are talking about this offseason. You said specifically they upgraded at DH and RF. 

 

October 2015 ---> Present

 

DH: Sano ----> Park

RF: Hunter ----> Sano

 

One of those is an upgrade, the other is not

Yeah, I think we're arguing semantics here.  Twins are better positioned at DH in 2016 than they were in 2015.  Twins are better positioned at RF than they were in 2015.  Those are true.  What is not true is that the Twins were going to use Sano as the 2016 DH - they said repeatedly that they weren't going to keep him out of the field.  

[bird]

 

Sano was the DH for a lot of last year. Park won't be an improvement there. And while Rf may improve offensively, it will go from bad to horrible defensively.

 

 

Okay, then RF. We upgraded RF. You assume offensively only. Others may prefer to wait and see.

 

Murphy is a starter and a two-way upgrade.

 

Sano improves the lineup and RF for a full season.

 

Park is an adequate replacement at DH for Sano.

 

Rosario proved himself, Arcia looks rejuvenated this spring, Buxton will have the light bulb go on like he has in the past, Mauer will be a tad better, we kept Plouffe instead of trading him for relief help as some had suggested....

 

Now, I have no clue if all of these things will come to pass, but I'd bet good money it's closer to reality than how you positioned your points about Rosario's low OPB, Park as a falloff at DH, Sano as a defensive bust, Murphy as nothing more than just another backup catcher....

[gunnarthor]

 

No, I'm arguing Park/Sano is not a clear upgrade over Sano/Hunter.  

 

The upgrades that the Twins made are from the 2016 season over the 2015 season.  We all know how you feel on the Sano to the OF move.  I don't care anymore.  But the central point - that the team has upgraded at 4 positions over last year is true. 

 

Maybe it's easier to put this way.  Question 1, last year, the Twins DH's put up a .759 OPS.  Do you think the 2016 Twins DH's (led mostly by Park) can best that number?  Last year, the Twins RFers put up a .239/.283/.400 line.  Do you think the 2016 Twins RFers (led mostly by Sano) can best that number?  If you said yes, it's an upgrade.  If you said no, it's not an upgrade.  If you said the Twins should keep Sano at DH, you are making up a new argument that is not what we are discussing.

[PseudoSABR]

 

 I'm arguing Park/Sano is not a clear upgrade over Sano/Hunter.  

Take out the word "clear" and I think we can resolve the disagreement.   I also think people, not necessarily you Levi*, are framing the discussion so the Twins look poor.  If the question is are Twins heading into 2016 likely to outproduce their 2015 production at RF and DH - then the answer is probably yes.  

 

*Though its probably not fair to not include non-Sano at-bats at DH if you're going to include Hunter in this equation.  That the Twins should improve by having a full season of Sano shouldn't hurt the evaluation of their offseason.

[Monkeypaws]

That article is crap, as is most of what comes out of Big League Stew.

[gunnarthor]

How about if instead of saying "upgraded", I said "better" at X positions.  Would that make it easier/less confusing?  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Take out the word "clear" and I think we can resolve the disagreement.   I also think people, not necessarily you Levi*, are framing the discussion so the Twins look poor.  If the question is are Twins heading into 2016 likely to outproduce their 2015 production at RF and DH - then the answer is probably yes.  

 

*Though its probably not fair to not include non-Sano at-bats at DH if you're going to include Hunter in this equation.  That the Twins should improve by having a full season of Sano shouldn't hurt the evaluation of their offseason.

 

I included Hunter because it was claimed we managed to upgrade from him.  I think Sano outproduces Hunter, what trade-off there is defensively I don't know.

 

It is not clear to me that Park out-produces Sano and the rest of the contigent that cycled through DH.  Especially since the team uses the DH position as a resting spot for guys.  

 

I would say we're not at a place where "probably" Park outproduces Vargas/Sano, because that's really what we're talking about.

[Boom Boom]

The upgrades that the Twins made are from the 2016 season over the 2015 season. We all know how you feel on the Sano to the OF move. I don't care anymore. But the central point - that the team has upgraded at 4 positions over last year is true.

 

They added some needed depth at catcher, I'll concede. Sano should hit better than Hunter. I'm not convinced that Park will not be awful, but whatever.

 

What was the fourth position they upgraded? It wasn't the bullpen, and it wasn't the rotation unless we're giving Santana credit for not being suspended in 2016.

[gunnarthor]

 

What was the fourth position they upgraded? It wasn't the bullpen, and it wasn't the rotation unless we're giving Santana credit for not being suspended in 2016.

Centerfield.  But, owing to earlier posts, how about I revamp and instead of saying "upgrade" I will simply say that the 2016 Twins CF will be better than the 2015 Twins CF.

[Boom Boom]

Centerfield. But, owing to earlier posts, how about I revamp and instead of saying "upgrade" I will simply say that the 2016 Twins CF will be better than the 2015 Twins CF.

Gonna have to disagree with you on that one. If Hicks was still on the team, there would be no rumblings about D.Santana getting the opening day job.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Who is arguing it dooms them to failure?  The argument is that missing out on that upgrade and doing nothing with a bullpen the team itself identified as a priority...probably means we don't need to get our pitchforks out about a D for the moves done or not done to help the team.  Probably has some merit.

The notion that the D is not underserved seems to suggest either Lowe (or the like) is the difference between a D- and a high grade, or the highest the grade the Twins could have received if they had taken advantage of such opportunities isn't high at all.  

 

For critics like Cwik there's a built in bias towards teams relying on player development (as opposed to player acquisition) to improve -- there's an unstated assumption that none of the big deals handed out won't turn out to be albatrosses that preclude the team using resources to address needs should they arise.   There's simply no effort to balance cost, risk against potential gains.   

 

Didn't the Padres and the Whitesox win the last offseason?  Everyone loves the Cubs offseason, but Heyward might be awful in centerfield, and Zobrist and Lackey could age very poorly.

[bird]

 

I'm tired of reading these kind of statements.  Even if you set out to address an area of need, you don't overpay to do it.  I'm glad the Twins stayed out of the inflated reliever market this offseason. 

 

 

I'm not glad they did. I would've loved to see a quality LHR, but I'm not all up in arms about it because I think there's a good possibility they have enough firepower in-house to keep the BP from being a deficiency. I was pissed last season about the BP a lot more than I am now, but maybe I'm smoking some bad stuff here. Smells good though.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I did like the Lowe deal comparatively to what other relievers received. But we're talking about the third guy in the bullpen (even if he's on par with Jepsen and Perkins, that's essentially how it play out) and Lowe would be a tremendous upgrade to Fien certainly, but this can't be the sort of missed opportunity that pushes the Twins offseason to an obvious and abysmal failure.

 

My point is that what we'd have them actually do would in fact be incremental towards their success.

I think adding a guy like Lowe is more than just incremental improvement over Fien, it gives us a legit chance at a dominant bullpen from day 1. Or a chance at a solid pen even if we had to take out May. That's not trivial. Maybe not a D-, although if they really think Lowe at 2/11 (to a division rival) was too steep a price to pay, they might earn most of that D- right there.

[gunnarthor]

 

Gonna have to disagree with you on that one. If Hicks was still on the team, there would be no rumblings about D.Santana getting the opening day job.

Hicks didn't make the team out of ST last year.  I'm not sure how CF will shake out in April - although I expect Buxton will get it - but over the entire year, I think CF will be better than last year.  

[bird]

 

And one ok year from a rotation doesn't mean it will stay that way. See 2010 to 2011 with the same guys in the rotation.

  

 

with no backup, unlike 2016

 

[PseudoSABR]

 

I included Hunter because it was claimed we managed to upgrade from him.  I think Sano outproduces Hunter, what trade-off there is defensively I don't know.

 

It is not clear to me that Park out-produces Sano and the rest of the contigent that cycled through DH.  Especially since the team uses the DH position as a resting spot for guys.  

 

I would say we're not at a place where "probably" Park outproduces Vargas/Sano, because that's really what we're talking about.

Even that frames it unfairly.  If Park merely reproduces the 2015 DH production, the move is a net win if Sano plays Hunter-esque defense in RF.

 

Sano probably wasn't going to play at DH regardless of the Park signing.  Retaining Plouffe and adding Parks allows the Twins to not rely on Vargas and Arcia, which is probably a good thing, and they are there to provide depth if Parks doesn't work out. 

 

 

[PseudoSABR]

 

although if they really think Lowe at 2/11 (to a division rival) was too steep a price to pay, they might earn most of that D- right there.

That's probably an oversimplification of what actually happened.   We don't know Lowe's reasons for choosing Detroit, and we don't the Twins evaluation of Lowe.  Lowe was a bargain compared to what many other similar and worse relievers received, so it's a bit unfair to judge the Twins against that. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's probably an oversimplification of what actually happened. We don't know Lowe's reasons for choosing Detroit, and we don't the Twins evaluation of Lowe. Lowe was a bargain compared to what many other similar and worse relievers received, so it's a bit unfair to judge the Twins against that.

Lowe seemed pretty eager to sign, and I don't think he has a connection to Detroit. He isn't even likely to be their closer. The Twins showed absolutely no inclination to sign him, or any of Bastardo, Clippard, or Kelley at similar rates.

 

Had they made a competitive offer to Lowe, I am pretty certain we would have heard about it somehow.

[TheLeviathan]

Even that frames it unfairly.  If Park merely reproduces the 2015 DH production, the move is a net win if Sano plays Hunter-esque defense in RF.

 

Sano probably wasn't going to play at DH regardless of the Park signing.  Retaining Plouffe and adding Parks allows the Twins to not rely on Vargas and Arcia, which is probably a good thing, and they are there to provide depth if Parks doesn't work out.

 

The decision to move Sano from DH is entirely up to the Twins. No one forced them.

 

Park is not going to get 550+ at bats at DH. The position isn't used like that by this team. More likely he is asked to give the 450 or so Vargas and Sano did and the other hundred are Mauer, Nunez, Plouffe, etc.

 

So the fair frame is Park vs. Sano/Vargas and that isn't even close to a clear case.

[bluechipper]

 

Gonna have to disagree with you on that one. If Hicks was still on the team, there would be no rumblings about D.Santana getting the opening day job.

Assuming Byron Buxton gets the job, I'm sure he can outproduce the .243/.296/.360 (.656) that Twins CFers put up last year (btw I know he was part of those numbers). Danny Santana could probably outproduce that too.

[nicksaviking]

 

Lowe seemed pretty eager to sign, and I don't think he has a connection to Detroit. He isn't even likely to be their closer. The Twins showed absolutely no inclination to sign him, or any of Bastardo, Clippard, or Kelley at similar rates.

Had they made a competitive offer to Lowe, I am pretty certain we would have heard about it somehow.

 

Lowe was the only free agent reliever that had me wistful both before the deal and after. However if the Twins truly give everyone a fair and just shot at winning bullpen spots, Chargois, Burdi, et. al. could all be that upgrade over Fien.

 

Not saying the Twins WILL give everyone a fair shot as their vet-loving history suggests they won't, but the inaction of the offseason certainly indicates that the team at least thinks they are going in with an open mind.