Big League Stew Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They do need opportunity though and AAA isn't really going to force anyone's hand.

But this team has bullpen spots to offer both to some proven strikeout help and to opportunity to young hard throwers.

AAA is actually ahead of where most of the Twins relief prospects are right now.

 

But your llatter point is key.  There are only limited spots in this pen if you stock it with guys like Fien, Abad, Tonkin, Nolasco, etc. and refuse to move them.

[TheLeviathan]

 

AAA is actually ahead of where most of the Twins relief prospects are right now.

 

But your llatter point is key.  There are only limited spots in this pen if you stock it with guys like Fien, Abad, Tonkin, Nolasco, etc. and refuse to move them.

 

My AAA point was more to the idea that being electric in the minors doesn't really work as a "force someone's hand" argument.  

[DaveW]

 

Tyler Clippard is 31, just lost 2.5 points on his K/9 and is almost strictly a FB/CH guy who's velocity is only 91 MPH. I wouldn't want to give him a two year deal, those are the kinds of guys I hope the Twins get rid of.

First off, Clippard is only ONE of SEVERAL RP we could have gotten on a reasonable 2-3 year deal.

 

In re to age: RP have a longer shelf life, and 31 isn't that old anyways.

 

He's not elite, but he is a damn fine RP still. His 8.1 k/9 last year actually would have placed him right behind Perkins and Mays strike out rate and would have put him ahead of Jepsen's. (Just food for thought)

 

Even with his "down" year last year he still put up a sub 3.00 ERA and is one season removed from a 10.5 k/9 2.18 ERA season. In fact the 4 years previous to last year he had a 9.8 k/9 which puts him way ahead of anything the Twins have tossed out other than Perkins over that span.

 

Seems like the perfect high floor, pretty nice ceiling type signing. Again, it would literally have cost the same amount they gave Pelfrey, and only a little bit more AAV then what they gave Fien and his 5.8 k/9 to come back. If the Twins signed him he instantly becomes either their 2nd, 3rd or 4th best guy in the pen hands down. All it would have cost is a tiny bit of money, and again there still would have been 3-4 open spots for the "rookies" and the dumpster diving signings TR did.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My AAA point was more to the idea that being electric in the minors doesn't really work as a "force someone's hand" argument.  

Sure.  Agreed.

[DaveW]

Once again, the Twins gave Mike Pelfrey a 2 year, 11 million dollar contract coming off a season in which he put up a 5.19 ERA in only 150 IP for them.

 

I fail to see how giving a guy like Lowe, or Clippard etc is somehow a more "risky" move that could hurt the franchise. Not only did Pelfrey continue to be "the suck" he took valuable starts away from the Mays and Duffey's of the world that probably cost this team the post season. Signing a Clippard, Lowe or similar literally does not prevent ANY of the Twins RP prospects from making the team.

 

It sorta gets to the point where you have to ask yourself:

1.Does TR even know what he is doing at this point in terms of a roster construction/bullpen construction?

2. Does TR even care?

3. Is TR too stubborn/resistant/slow to change?

 

I don't think the first two are correct, but number 3 looks spot on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not only did Pelfrey continue to be "the suck" he took valuable starts away from the Mays and Duffey's of the world that probably cost this team the post season.

I might quibble with the details of this example, but you are definitely correct that it is much easier to be flexible and adapt around a RP signing than a SP one.

[dgwills]

8 pages of comments? This is one of the most half assed articles I've ever read. It's really not possible to judge the offseason for any team yet, but this isn't much of an effort. It doesn't really have a lot to say about any of the moves or players involved. He just gave high ratings to the teams who got the marquee free agents. It's not like you can fault the Rays for not signing David Price or discount the 200 million dollar investment. 

This guys other articles are about selfie sticks and how Kyle Shwarber broke a windshield. You guys are better than this.

[nicksaviking]

 

By then it's 2017, you've wasted another year, and blown through half a dozen 40 man spots to find out you need to sign bullpen help for the coming year.

It doesn't work that way, Nick. Players need to be made to force their way onto the 25 man, it shouldn't be a tryout camp.

 

That's how it used to work, not anymore. Everyone was excited about "good" baseball last year but there were plenty of people saying the Twins would pay the price later for sticking with the veterans instead of letting the young guys play and develop. Well 2016 is the reckoning for those decisions. Personally, I think the young guys will be better than the scrap heap vets that they might otherwise fill those holes, but even if the young guys struggle early, it's still better for the long run.

 

Last year, nearly to a man the young players out performed the vets, and that wasn't isolated to the Twins. Young players were given the chance to play, and even though the standards set by the last couple decades said they "weren't ready" they ended up showing that they actually were. This is a young man's league now.  Unless the Twins are going to once again be at the tail end of baseball trends, they need to give the jobs to the young guys until they prove they can't cut it, because when the vets are given the job outright, it continues to be shown that it is very difficult for this team to replace them unless they are either injured, or flat out terrible.

[Riverbrian]

8 pages of comments? This is one of the most half assed articles I've ever read. It's really not possible to judge the offseason for any team yet, but this isn't much of an effort. It doesn't really have a lot to say about any of the moves or players involved. He just gave high ratings to the teams who got the marquee free agents. It's not like you can fault the Rays for not signing David Price or discount the 200 million dollar investment.

This guys other articles are about selfie sticks and how Kyle Shwarber broke a windshield. You guys are better than this.

I agree that the article itself is questionable but... No matter the starting point... I've enjoyed the 8 pages of discussion and hope we get to 12.

[DaveW]

 

I agree that the article itself is questionable but... No matter the starting point... I've enjoyed the 8 pages of discussion and hope we get to 9.

Yeah, it basically works as a "Hey how did you guys think the off-season went" sort of topic.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

8 pages of comments? This is one of the most half assed articles I've ever read. It's really not possible to judge the offseason for any team yet, but this isn't much of an effort. It doesn't really have a lot to say about any of the moves or players involved. He just gave high ratings to the teams who got the marquee free agents. It's not like you can fault the Rays for not signing David Price or discount the 200 million dollar investment. 

This guys other articles are about selfie sticks and how Kyle Shwarber broke a windshield. You guys are better than this.

I didn't even click through to the article, and I'm probably not alone.  As is the case with many forum threads here, we're discussing a general Twins related topic, not the work of a specific author.  Read the comments before you judge them.

[gunnarthor]

 

8 pages of comments? .... You guys are better than this.

Um, were you not here for the Joe Benson or Zach Jones threads?  

[dgwills]

 

I didn't even click through to the article, and I'm probably not alone.  As is the case with many forum threads here, we're discussing a general Twins related topic, not the work of a specific author.  Read the comments before you judge them.

I always read the comments. It was fairly clear that a lot of people didn't read the article. Tsk Tsk.

[USAFChief]

 

That's how it used to work, not anymore. Everyone was excited about "good" baseball last year but there were plenty of people saying the Twins would pay the price later for sticking with the veterans instead of letting the young guys play and develop. Well 2016 is the reckoning for those decisions. Personally, I think the young guys will be better than the scrap heap vets that they might otherwise fill those holes, but even if the young guys struggle early, it's still better for the long run.

 

Last year, nearly to a man the young players out performed the vets, and that wasn't isolated to the Twins. Young players were given the chance to play, and even though the standards set by the last couple decades said they "weren't ready" they ended up showing that they actually were. This is a young man's league now.  Unless the Twins are going to once again be at the tail end of baseball trends, they need to give the jobs to the young guys until they prove they can't cut it, because when the vets are given the job outright, it continues to be shown that it is very difficult for this team to replace them unless they are either injured, or flat out terrible.

Who were the Twins relievers who should have been up and contributing in 2015?

 

Meyer, maybe, after Sep 1st.  But veteren relievers didn't stand in the way of that.  Berrios, late in the year, although you'll get resistance from many here based on 40 man and/or innings limit theory.

 

Other than that, NONE of them were both healthy and performing at a level that earned them a chance at a 40 man spot and a 25 man spot.

 

Personally, before I put the 2016 season in the hands of pitchers who weren't ready to help in 2015, I let them perform at a level that at least reasonably demonstrates they can be successful immediately, or soon, after call up.  And again, personally, I'd be pleasantly surprised if as many as two of them earn a promotion in 2016, so adding a proven veteran performer or two wouldn't be very likely to stand in anyone's way.  If they do, that'd be a lot better problem than depending on them and finding out you don't have enough talent, rather than dealing with too much.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I always read the comments. It was fairly clear that a lot of people didn't read the article. Tsk Tsk.

Who cares about the article?  Are we not allowed to discuss things not contained or addressed in the article?

[howieramone2]

 

I wouldn't give the Twins high grades, mostly for the nonsensical nature of the moves and non-moves this offseason, but this line kind of contradicts itself AND his grade:

 

"The club's inactivity makes some sense considering the team is built on youngsters and prospects, but that rotation is still a big weakness."

 

So if the plan was to not make big moves because using the young players "makes some sense", was the default grade a D-? And also, why can't the "youngsters and prospects" be used to improve the rotation too?

I didn't see any nonsensical moves. Can you provide examples?

[alarp33]

 

I didn't see any nonsensical moves. Can you provide examples?

 

Umm, signing a DH when they had 3-4 of them in the system?

[mazeville]

I'm no fan of the Twins' offseason, but D- is harsh. And there's little argument other than the generic, "did little to improve ..."

 

The Park signing is a good one -- an aggressive move for a potentially impact right-handed bat. No, nobody knows how that bat will translate. But that's true for all such moves for foreign players.

 

They went and got Murphy, upgrading at catcher. No, he's not a potential all star. But he's a potential starter. And that's more than they've had. And remember the Twins traded from an area of strength in dealing Hicks -- team is literally overrun with outfielders.

 

They didn't do much to address their bullpen. I get that. But honestly, they should get a C grade, maybe a C- grade.

 

Whatever. 

[howieramone2]

 

I find it funny that some people are trying to credit the Twins for "not paying inflated prices on RP" even those though prices are an extremely manageable 5-6 million a year for 2-3 years. Meanwhile last year the Twins had Mike Pelfrey on a similar contract and paid 10+ million to a replacement level RF "veteran"

 

The reality is, there is nothing that prevented the Twins from signing a Clippard type, not money, not better internal options, not bigger holes to fill. It was just a failure all around, Ryan and co had it in there mind that they would not give any legit RP more than one year, and their strategy failed terribly.

Dave, the season hasn't started yet.

[dgwills]

 

Who cares about the article?  Are we not allowed to discuss things not contained or addressed in the article?

You're good. It's just a joke. Like the article in question.

[howieramone2]

 

I have no problem with some of those deals (like Fien and Nunez), but this helps put the FA reliever salaries in context.  Duensing got $2.7 mil last year coming off a pretty weak performance (3.3 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 in 2014).  We gave up prospects for the right to sign Jepsen at 1 year, $5.3 mil.

 

There is no way that a 2 year, ~$12 mil deal for a reliever coming off the season/postseason of Lowe, or the track record of Clippard (at least 1.2 bWAR in 6 of the last 7 seasons), is "inflated" or evidence of the market "blowing up".  That's fair market value, and low in absolute terms compared to other positions, so it's an easy low risk way for teams with suspect bullpens to potentially improve quickly.  Would have thought that group included the Twins with the way the 2015 season unfolded and our public statements about the bullpen being a priority, but here we are.

We gave up pie in the sky. Truly a great move.

[howieramone2]

 

Umm, signing a DH when they had 3-4 of them in the system?

Depth and competition is a good thing. Arcia and Vargas disappointed last season. Should TR have gambled the season by counting on them again? Remember, it only cost us money right?

[gunnarthor]

 

Umm, signing a DH when they had 3-4 of them in the system?

I'm not sure the Twins would be better off relying on Arcia or Vargas, for instance.  They both had chances and neither has really done well.  Arcia was a highly regarded prospect but he was just horrible last year, even at AAA.  I think the Twins would be foolish to rely on him for this year.  They can certainly hope he bounces back but making that your plan seems iffy.

 

Vargas was never a high prospect, is kinda old and really not a lot of reasons to think he can hit at the ML level.  

 

The only other real DH option they would have had was keep Sano at DH and let someone else figure into RF. I suspect that's what many people expected if they knew Plouffe was going to stay.  I don't have a problem with the Twins keeping Sano away from full-time DH at this point and if he's not going to be the DH, then the other options weren't really appealing.  

[alarp33]

 

I'm not sure the Twins would be better off relying on Arcia or Vargas, for instance.  They both had chances and neither has really done well.  Arcia was a highly regarded prospect but he was just horrible last year, even at AAA.  I think the Twins would be foolish to rely on him for this year.  They can certainly hope he bounces back but making that your plan seems iffy.

 

Vargas was never a high prospect, is kinda old and really not a lot of reasons to think he can hit at the ML level.  

 

The only other real DH option they would have had was keep Sano at DH and let someone else figure into RF. I suspect that's what many people expected if they knew Plouffe was going to stay.  I don't have a problem with the Twins keeping Sano away from full-time DH at this point and if he's not going to be the DH, then the other options weren't really appealing.  

 

I'm not a Vargas guy either. 

 

Your last paragraph is why I wrote what I wrote.  Signing Park may work out fine in the long run, but I think its more than fair to call the 1 off season signing of a DH, nonsensical, when they had Sano there.  The move to RF screams desperation and poor planning to me.  I'm sticking in the camp that they signed Park with the full intentions of trading Plouffe, only to realize they weren't going to get anything for him, and panicking.  

 

I don't want Sano to be a full time DH either, but leaving him there, letting him and Plouffe split 3b+Dh, or trading Plouffe, signing a RF or rolling with Arcia for a month or two until Kepler is ready, would have made more "sense" to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

We gave up pie in the sky. Truly a great move.

Context can be your friend. We're not debating whether the Jepsen trade was good or not, in fact most of us liked it just the same as you. But Jepsen isn't here for free, his total cost to the Twins is very comparable to what other teams are committing to Lowe, Clippard, etc.

 

You tend to miss that context, though, when you bold and "respond" to one sentence in a longer post.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Depth and competition is a good thing. Arcia and Vargas disappointed last season. Should TR have gambled the season by counting on them again? Remember, it only cost us money right?

Also perhaps the opportunity cost of signing a reliever, given a limit on financial resources.

 

Also, we already had depth and competition at DH and the corner OF spots. Remember how buried Arcia and Vargas were in 2015? We didn't need to sign Park to compete with them or make them depth pieces.

 

Our bullpen disappointed last season, arguably more than Arcia and Vargas as Sano, Rosario, and Hunter effectively replaced them. Why no emphasis on a similar "depth and competition" acquisition in the bullpen? Sounds like Abad is all but guaranteed a job, that is some great depth and competition there...

 

You could have signed both Lowe AND Bastardo for the same amount of money we committed for Park. And much more clearly added "depth and competition" to this club.

[nicksaviking]

 

Depth and competition is a good thing. Arcia and Vargas disappointed last season. Should TR have gambled the season by counting on them again? Remember, it only cost us money right?

 

I like Park, and I'm glad to have him, but he wasn't a fit and still isn't. Other players should have been removed if they were going to make room for Park. Arcia and Vargas are only part of the redundancy, Sano, Plouffe and Mauer are part of it too, and now so is Carlos Quentin.

[PseudoSABR]

 

.You could have signed both Lowe AND Bastardo for the same amount of money we committed for Park. And much more clearly added "depth and competition" to this club.

Bleh.  1) You're including the signing bonus to make that work and ignoring the team control of the players.  2)  Bastardo and Lowe combined for 112 innings last year.  3) It would have been a mistake to count on (yet again) Arcia/Vargas.   

 

Can we all just stop using the word "clearly."  These are opinions, not facts.

[Boom Boom]

It would have made more sense to me to go scrap-heap for a DH if a DH was what the Twins were looking for. Somebody to compete with Arcia and Vargas (or Sano for that matter).

 

Then go after some big-time reliever with the money they didn't commit to Park.

[bluechipper]

 

Who were the Twins relievers who should have been up and contributing in 2015?

 

Meyer, maybe, after Sep 1st.  But veteren relievers didn't stand in the way of that.  Berrios, late in the year, although you'll get resistance from many here based on 40 man and/or innings limit theory.

 

Other than that, NONE of them were both healthy and performing at a level that earned them a chance at a 40 man spot and a 25 man spot.

 

Personally, before I put the 2016 season in the hands of pitchers who weren't ready to help in 2015, I let them perform at a level that at least reasonably demonstrates they can be successful immediately, or soon, after call up.  And again, personally, I'd be pleasantly surprised if as many as two of them earn a promotion in 2016, so adding a proven veteran performer or two wouldn't be very likely to stand in anyone's way.  If they do, that'd be a lot better problem than depending on them and finding out you don't have enough talent, rather than dealing with too much.

They weren't ready last year, but they were also pitching in their first full pro season (Burdi and Reed) or coming back from injury (Chargois), and Alex Meyer was doing pretty well out of the bullpen. All except for Chargois were just listed in Keith Law's top 10 releif prospects, and I'm sure they'll get the chance to pitch for the Twins this year, and maybe Melotakis too.