Article: Charting The Competition: Chicago White Sox

[Nick Nelson]

Last year, the White Sox went 76-86, finishing fourth in the AL Central with the league's lowest-scoring offense. Their offseason was pretty quiet, featuring the addition of third baseman Todd Frazier but little else of note.

 

With Jeff Samardzija departing as a free agent, it appeared that the Sox were poised for a rebuilding year of sorts, but this week USA Today picked them to come out on top of a tough division with 90 wins.These kinds of predictions are ultimately rather meaningless, and USA Today's 90-win guess isn't worth any more than FanGraphs projecting Chicago to win 81 or Bleacher Report pegging them in last place with 73 wins.

 

But the nod does serve as a reminder that some of us might be sleeping too much on a White Sox club that undeniably has a solid foundation in place, even after a relatively quiet offseason.

 

It all begins with Chris Sale. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball -- a true ace by every definition of the word -- and he was on top of his game last year, even if many of his teammates weren't. For the four straight season, Sale was an All-Star and top six Cy Young finisher. He led the American League in strikeouts (274), K/BB ratio (6.52) and FIP (2.73).

 

Entering his age 27 season, Sale is the primary reason that the White Sox cannot be ignored, but he's hardly the only one. The loss of Samardzija, whose career-worst season was a big part of Chicago's problems, should be more than offset by the continued development of electric young lefty Carlos Rodon and the reliable steadiness of Jose Quintana.

 

A number of arms will compete to join this fearsome trio of southpaws in the rotation, including the recently signed Mat Latos.

 

Of course, offense is the preeminent concern for a club that last year ranked last in the AL in runs, homers and OPS.

 

In that regard, the addition of Frazier through a blockbuster three-way trade back in December looms large. Chicago got a miserable .226/.277/.345 hitting line from the hot corner last year, and now upgrades massively by bringing aboard a two-time All Star who bashed 35 homers with the Reds in 2015.

 

Frazier joins a core at the middle of the lineup powered by the intimidating Jose Abreu, who quietly enjoyed a nice follow-up to his Rookie of the Year campaign, and the Sox also added Brett Lawrie to address their deficiency at second base. Adam Eaton is an underrated leadoff man and 24-year-old Avisail Garcia seems destined to turn a corner and become an impact guy one of these years.

 

Ultimately, however, improvement for the White Sox offense is very highly dependent on players like Garcia making a big leap. Last year Abreu was the only player on the roster to exceed 14 home runs or a .450 slugging percentage, and outside of Frazier the acquisitions to bolster this unit were modest in nature.

 

With one big offseason splash to add power to the lineup, and a lot of hope invested in internal solutions. Chicago's offseason plan looks quite similar to the one we've seen from the Twins, and it puts them on roughly the same plane of expectation heading into the season.

 

~~~

This is the third installment in our series examining the offseasons and outlooks for AL Central opponents. Check out the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.

 

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[beckmt]

Major White Sox issue was fielding and the number of extra outs the opponents got(not so much from errors, but lack of range).  Do not see big upgrade in this area, probably is better, but not to average or above.  Also bullpen in front of Robertson, is not that good and may be worse that the Twins.  Could be either side of 81-81 depending on bullpen and hittine.  Starting pitching does win and Chicago has it.

[gunnarthor]

Sale's good and Rodon will be good but ... man, that's a tough roster to get excited about.  I would think they are more likely to win 71 than 90.  I wouldn't be surprised if they looked at moving Abreu at some point this season.  

[Riverbrian]

Strong starting pitching and improved defense.

 

I refuse to look past them.

[dbminn]

White Sox roster still has a lot of holes: Cabrera, LaRoche, whoever they put at shortstop, back end of the rotation, front end of the bullpen.

 

I'll take the Twins moving forward without a second thought. The depth and upside of their system is far superior to both the Sox and the Tigers. The only problem is, it may be 2017 before we see the difference.

[gunnarthor]

 

Strong starting pitching and improved defense.

I refuse to look past them.

I will say that Jose Quintana might be the most underrated good pitcher in baseball.  Something about soft tossing 90 mph lefties gets people to underrate them.  But he's really good.

[Vanimal46]

I'm with RiverBrian. As Twins fans, I don't think there's a team in this division that can be overlooked. From a pitching standpoint, the White Sox seem to have the upper hand over the Twins in at least 3 spots, possibly 4 if Latos finds his way again. This division is tough to predict. You can make cases for any team to finish in 1st place, and just as many cases for any team to finish in last place. 

[Vanimal46]

 

White Sox roster still has a lot of holes: Cabrera, LaRoche, whoever they put at shortstop, back end of the rotation, front end of the bullpen.

 

I'll take the Twins moving forward without a second thought. The depth and upside of their system is far superior to both the Sox and the Tigers. The only problem is, it may be 2017 before we see the difference.

From a long term perspective I agree, the Twins have the depth and upside over the Sox and Tigers. What the Sox and Tigers have over the Twins is a larger payroll. The Sox have both Danks and LaRoche's horrific contracts coming off the books next year, $40 million total with their other expiring contracts. Who knows if they make a splash in FA or choose to sell/rebuild beginning next season. 
 

EDIT: Math isn't my strong suit anymore.... 

Edited February 16, 2016 by Vanimal46

[TheLeviathan]

I think sitting here and talking about "going forward" is intentionally moving the goalposts.  We're charting them for 2016 and, at least on paper, they have a stronger roster.  

 

But that's arguably been the case a lot and the performance on the field doesn't match up.  

[gunnarthor]

 

I think sitting here and talking about "going forward" is intentionally moving the goalposts.  We're charting them for 2016 and, at least on paper, they have a stronger roster.  

 

I'm not sure that's even true, though.  I think the Twins have the advantage at most positions now.  Although some of that is based on projection since we don't know how some of our young guys will do this  year.  But I'd rather have Park at DH than LaRoche.  I like Dozier and Plouffe over Lawrie and Frazier. Escobar over Saldino. I like our OF of Rosario/Buxton/Sano a lot more than their OF.  They have an advantage at first base but even catcher might be a draw. 

 

They certainly have a better front of the rotation.  

[dbminn]

 

We're charting them for 2016 and, at least on paper, they have a stronger roster.  

 

 

 

The Twins will have a better record than the White Sox in 2016. How much better will depend on the performance of the youngsters.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I'm not sure that's even true, though.  I think the Twins have the advantage at most positions now.  Although some of that is based on projection since we don't know how some of our young guys will do this  year.  But I'd rather have Park at DH than LaRoche.  I like Dozier and Plouffe over Lawrie and Frazier. Escobar over Saldino. I like our OF of Rosario/Buxton/Sano a lot more than their OF.  They have an advantage at first base but even catcher might be a draw. 

 

They certainly have a better front of the rotation.  

 

Simply checking off who has a better player isn't fair analysis though.  Tom Brady is better than both Andy Dalton and Johnny Manziel, but the difference isn't the same.  The White Sox rotation is significantly ahead.  And it's a known quantity.  I would probably agree about 2B/3B and the OF, but the margin isn't significantly in the Twins' favor.  At least not until Buxton steps up.  

 

Is Park better than Laroche?  I'm not ready to say that.  Abreu is miles better than Mauer.   I also like their bullpen, in general, better than ours.  

 

So, yeah, I'd say on paper where they have an advantage it is much more stark than anywhere we have one.  But some advancement by young guys could change that.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins will have a better record than the White Sox in 2016. How much better will depend on the performance of the youngsters.

 

I disagree we are guaranteed to be better.  We are depending on a lot of young players and anyone that tells you they can predict their production with any certainty is lying.  This could be an adjustment year for us, or we may just hit the ground running.

 

But let's not pretend that the two biggest advantages between these teams favor the Sox.  Their rotation and 1B production is much better than ours. 

[gunnarthor]

 

Simply checking off who has a better player isn't fair analysis though.  Tom Brady is better than both Andy Dalton and Johnny Manziel, but the difference isn't the same.  The White Sox rotation is significantly ahead.  And it's a known quantity.  I would probably agree about 2B/3B and the OF, but the margin isn't significantly in the Twins' favor.  At least not until Buxton steps up.  

 

Is Park better than Laroche?  I'm not ready to say that.  Abreu is miles better than Mauer.   I also like their bullpen, in general, better than ours.  

 

So, yeah, I'd say on paper where they have an advantage it is much more stark than anywhere we have one.  But some advancement by young guys could change that.

Well sure, this is just back of the napkin stuff but generally, I think our lineup is better and deeper than theirs - substantially so, actually.  I like their front of the rotation more.   Bullpens could go either way.  But I think we're past a point where we can say they have the better roster "on paper."  I just don't think they do.  

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well sure, this is just back of the napkin stuff but generally, I think our lineup is better and deeper than theirs - substantially so, actually.  I like their front of the rotation more.   Bullpens could go either way.  But I think we're past a point where we can say they have the better roster "on paper."  I just don't think they do.  

 

I disagree, but largely that's because I don't know what to expect out of ours more than theirs.  So some of this is obviously guesswork as it always is.

[alarp33]

 

I'm not sure that's even true, though.  I think the Twins have the advantage at most positions now.  Although some of that is based on projection since we don't know how some of our young guys will do this  year.  But I'd rather have Park at DH than LaRoche.  I like Dozier and Plouffe over Lawrie and Frazier. Escobar over Saldino. I like our OF of Rosario/Buxton/Sano a lot more than their OF.  They have an advantage at first base but even catcher might be a draw. 

 

They certainly have a better front of the rotation.  

 

It looks a little different when you don't combine OF into 1 position, and 2b+3B into one.... 

 

C- Draw/ Lean White Sox

1B - White Sox

2B- Twins

SS- Twins

3B- White Sox

LF- White Sox (Cabrera over Rosario)

CF- White Sox (I think Buxton is going to breakout this year, but Eaton is proven)

RF- Twins

DH - Who knows

 

I should note, I'd take the Twins lineup... but I'm not sure about the clear cut advantage you think they have.  

Edited February 16, 2016 by alarp33

[bird]

 

 

 

  Abreu is miles better than Mauer.   

 

That may be crystal clear to you, but for Mauer, the lines are blurred.

[bluechipper]

It looks a little different when you don't combine OF into 1 position, and 2b+3B into one.... 

 

C- Draw/ Lean White Sox

1B - White Sox

2B- Twins

SS- Twins

3B- White Sox

LF- White Sox (Cabrera over Rosario)

CF- White Sox (I think Buxton is going to breakout this year, but Eaton is proven)

RF- Twins

DH - Who knows

 

I should note, I'd take the Twins lineup... but I'm not sure about the clear cut advantage you think they have.

I'll take Rosario's speed and arm over Melky Cabrera, as they were about even offensively last year. And if the Twins primary DH can't muster a 78 ops+ this year, then something's gone horribly wrong.

[bluechipper]

I disagree we are guaranteed to be better.  We are depending on a lot of young players and anyone that tells you they can predict their production with any certainty is lying.  This could be an adjustment year for us, or we may just hit the ground running.

 

But let's not pretend that the two biggest advantages between these teams favor the Sox.  Their rotation and 1B production is much better than ours.

The Twins 4/5 of Duffy and Milone/Berrios help close the gap some between the two rotations, especially if the Sox plan on their 4/5 being Latos and Erik Johnson. And hopefully the Twins can keep on crushing Chris Sale.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'll take Rosario's speed and arm over Melky Cabrera, as they were about even offensively last year. And if the Twins primary DH can't muster a 78 ops+ this year, then something's gone horribly wrong.

I'd probably take our pair too, but projecting 2016 involves a lot more than looking at 2015 stats.  Cabrera and LaRoche are both just a year removed from ~125 OPS+ seasons.

[alarp33]

 

I'll take Rosario's speed and arm over Melky Cabrera, as they were about even offensively last year. And if the Twins primary DH can't muster a 78 ops+ this year, then something's gone horribly wrong.

 

Like the other poster said, I'm not ranking who I would have rather had in 2015.  I'm not sold on Rosario's bat, hope I am wrong. 

 

Also, what was the Twins DH OPS+ Pre-Sano (Sano is not the DH anymore)? Park may hit 25-30 Home Runs, he also may not make the roster out of Spring and have a tough adjustment. 

[bluechipper]

Like the other poster said, I'm not ranking who I would have rather had in 2015.  I'm not sold on Rosario's bat, hope I am wrong. 

 

Also, what was the Twins DH OPS+ Pre-Sano (Sano is not the DH anymore)? Park may hit 25-30 Home Runs, he also may not make the roster out of Spring and have a tough adjustment.

 

Rosario's fielding and upside still give him the edge for me over Melky. Laroche is going to have to have a huge bounceback just to be playable. I'll take my chances with Arcia/Park.

[PseudoSABR]

Something that's been overlooked and will play out significantly is the Twins have way better depth both in the rotation and on the field to deal with injury, failure, and regression.   

[tobi0040]

I think this is a team we freak out about every year, then they go out and underwhelm.

 

I am not predicting them to be a top two team in the central.  If they proved me wrong I would not be shocked, but I am done freaking out about them until they prove it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Who's freaking out?  Fangraphs projects the White Sox at 81 wins right now, and the Twins at 78 but with 2-3 top 30 prospects breaking in.  That's about as even as you can get.  Heck, our whole division is about as even as you can get.  And that pretty much mirrors the more pessimistic comments here so far.

 

EDIT: PECOTA has the Indians at 92 wins.  That seems like the closest thing to a fan/projection freak out in the AL Central right now.

Edited February 16, 2016 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Something that's been overlooked and will play out significantly is the Twins have way better depth both in the rotation and on the field to deal with injury, failure, and regression.   

Doesn't seem that overlooked, the words depth/deep have already been mentioned a few times in this thread, in reference to a Twins advantage over the White Sox.

 

That said, we also shouldn't overrate the advantage of depth.  The Twins had better rotation depth in 2015 too, but their rotation performance still trailed that of the White Sox.  Just one of Sale, Quintana, or perhaps even Rodon pitching up to expectations probably neutralizes any wins gained by depth there, that's the power of star level talent.

 

Position players are a different story, with Sano in the fold, the Twins might very well match the White Sox for plus talent on that side of the ball.
 

It's a pretty close match, which should make things interesting!

[tobi0040]

 

Who's freaking out?  Fangraphs projects the White Sox at 81 wins right now, and the Twins at 78 but with 2-3 top 30 prospects breaking in.  That's about as even as you can get.  Heck, our whole division is about as even as you can get.  And that pretty much mirrors the more pessimistic comments here so far.

 

EDIT: PECOTA has the Indians at 92 wins.  That seems like the closest thing to a fan/projection freak out in the AL Central right now.

 

USA Today I suppose.  It was a comment more aimed at the last few offseasons I guess.  I am sure some were losing it when they traded for Frazier.  But they were going to run away with the division when they got The Shark.  LaRoche.  Melky.  Robertson.  Abreau.  Dunn, etc.

 

For a team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2008, they have won a lot of the off-seasons the last few years.

Edited February 16, 2016 by tobi0040

[Riverbrian]

I'm a Brian Dozier Fan but I'd rather have the Frazier/Lawrie combo over Plouffe/Dozier.

 

The Twins top the White Sox in youth, depth and SS. Everything else is a push or a clear (on paper) White Sox advantage.

 

I've often thought... If the White Sox fix their defense... look out.

 

Frazier and Lawrie and Saldano firms up the infield nicely.

 

If they get Fowler for the OF. Bullpen become their only weakness.

 

I refuse to look past them

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

USA Today I suppose.  It was a comment more aimed at the last few offseasons I guess.  I am sure some were losing it when they traded for Frazier.  But they were going to run away with the division when they got The Shark.  LaRoche.  Melky.  Robertson.  Abreau.  Dunn, etc.

Hmmm... I don't read USA Today.  I haven't gotten that impression.  I've heard about the White Sox having a good offseason before, but more just about improving their team, not "running away with the division."

[tobi0040]

 

I'm a Brian Dozier Fan but I'd rather have the Frazier/Lawrie combo over Plouffe/Dozier.

 

In 2014, our two had a WAR edge of 9.1 to 7.  Last year it was 5.9 to 4.9 in favor of the Sox combo.

 

The issue is Sano at 3B may approach the WAR of Frazier and Lawrie.  I just hope his defense doesn't negate a chunk of his WAR like Jose Abreu.  Where a 7 WAR bat is a 5 WAR player