Plouffe and the Mid Market Payroll

[TheLeviathan]

 

Keeping Plouffe at 3B is a little like if the Twins had kept Pierzynski and moved Mauer to RF for a couple years. The difference being Pierzynski, when all said and done, very likely will have ended up with a longer and better career than Plouffe's.

 

Free Sano! I'm not buying the line that he can never be a decent fielder at third, if given enough reps.

 

This.  Now Mauer had a better defensive pedigree coming up, but it's the same idea: Plouffe's time at third should be over.  He should be the one moving around if anyone.

[old nurse]

 

Pressly or Tonkin simply matching Stauffer's modest achievements on the mound would have been a win for the Twins because of their low salaries and team control.

When they promised him a chance to start in spring training, it became pretty clear to me that the Twins didn't have any grand plan in mind for Stauffer other than wanting another veteran arm around.

Correct, 1.7 million in baseball is a lot of money to throw away.  Evidently the Twins did not think from the previous 2 years of pitching that Tonkin or Pressly could match the modest achievements of Stauffer

[old nurse]

 

 

Stauffer was throwing 88 mph at the end of spring training and was getting shelled. Here are his game logs with velocity. Presley on the other hand didn't get a chance to show what he could do in spring training. But here are his logs showing he was throwing 94 mph. It doesn't take a genius to figure out something isn't right when a pitcher loses 5 mph on his fastball and is getting shelled. To me it was pretty clear he shouldn't have been handed the roll in that situation.

You're argument that Stauffer was a better pitcher when healthy might be true but that wasn't the situation the Twins found themselves in.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=6432&position=P&type=6&gds=&gde=&season=2015

http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=7005&position=P&type=11&gds=&gde=&season=2015

Yup, Stauffer should have never come north. The Twins do a lousy job of recognizing when a pitcher is injured and the player does not say anything. Stauffer isn't the first one, neither was Nolasco.  By his history of injuries the guy is a crapshoot. When healthy he is a spot starter/long relief/mop pitcher. What would you expect from a low budget signing?   JR Graham and one other young pitcher were going to be the inexperienced ones. Thompson got the other spot. When other pitchers got hurt, Pressly and Tonkin would be getting their chance. Stauffer, ironically was the one.

 

For a one year deal for a relief pitcher for the 2015 season, only Belisle, and Frasor had decent years. A couple were better than mediocre, but not by much.

[stringer bell]

IIRC, Pressly throws pretty hard. Stauffer never threw beyond low 90s. Stauffer was an over-30 veteran last year, Pressly is still relatively young. Not much in common for the two RH relief pitchers.

[DaveW]

This. Now Mauer had a better defensive pedigree coming up, but it's the same idea: Plouffe's time at third should be over. He should be the one moving around if anyone.

10000000x this

Sano will be fine at 3rd base, at least for a few years. At that point Mauer is likely gone (or reduced role) and you can move Sano to 1st base anyways worst case scenario.

AJ is the perfect example, we didn't need him and traded him for anything we could get: which was a hard throwing RP, a prospect who projected to be a 5th/6th starter, and a low level talented but injury prone Sp.....not a top 100 prospect amongst them IIRC.

 

how did that work out again?

 

edit: Wow, Bonser was #29 prospect in baseball at the time of the trade.

edit part 2: oops never mind, he was #29 the year before the trade.

[jokin]

 

Correct, 1.7 million in baseball is a lot of money to throw away.  Evidently the Twins did not think from the previous 2 years of pitching that Tonkin or Pressly could match the modest achievements of Stauffer

 

Actually, $1.7 M is peanuts in a 21st Century MLB payroll.

 

I would have thought that it was obvious to everyone that something was very wrong physically with Stauffer from the first time I saw him throw in ST. Not only did the velo never show even fleeting signs of recovery, but Stauffer looked utterly unable to fully utilize arm, shoulder and upper body movements and full extension in delivering MLB-level pitching.

 

Pressly OTOH, actually increased his velocity by 1-1.5 MPH over his previous 2 seasons (as a 26-year old should do). His strike-to-ball count ratio was 2:1 ( by contrast, Timmy's S-B count was 1:1.5). Only the Twins initial reluctance to roster him out of Spring Training, plus a bad BABIP and finally injury held Pressly back from having a very solid season.

 

I think the Twins should have known what they had in him, and been unafraid to DL Stauffer and promote Pressly to the roster last April 1. (Even Molitor now admits what could have been, and what still might be for Press (from Rotowire)-

 

Pressly will enter spring training with a chance for a high-profile role in the Minnesota bullpen, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports. "I don't think people realize how well (Pressly) was throwing the ball before he got hurt (strained latissimus) last year, and now he's healthy," said manager Paul Molitor.

 

 

 

And I'm not even Ryan Pressly's biggest fan, but that was an easy call last spring.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

10000000x this
Sano will be fine at 3rd base, at least for a few years. At that point Mauer is likely gone (or reduced role) and you can move Sano to 1st base anyways worst case scenario.
AJ is the perfect example, we didn't need him and traded him for anything we could get: which was a hard throwing RP, a prospect who projected to be a 5th/6th starter, and a low level talented but injury prone Sp.....not a top 100 prospect amongst them IIRC.

how did that work out again?

edit: Wow, Bonser was #29 prospect in baseball at the time of the trade.
edit part 2: oops never mind, he was #29 the year before the trade.

 

Funny thing is that supposedly the Cubs had a better offer on the table (according to the 'experts' at least).

 

This was probably a good example of trading at surplus (and a valuable surplus at that) and both trading for need, accepting some risk, and trading for the future.  The Twins needed a closer, and Nathan looked like he might fit the bill.  Bonser was pretty much ready as a prospect, though he had lost some shine, and Liriano was a lottery ticket.  There's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but Ryan really did hit the jack pot on this one.  Now to be fair, this trade would never happen today. 

 

Back to Plouffe, I hope/suspect he's traded at some point.  I'm not against holding on to him a bit until Kepler, Buxton, and/or Arcia really force some things and Rosario shows how he belongs.  I think the OF will be hurt in the short term as there may be some struggles, and I don't see how it will be average defensively.  In the mean time, he is an insurance policy of sorts. He's a known quantity, above average, and while not a star, he's not bad either.  I don't think they get much for him even if he's traded at the deadline.  I personally hope for a couple of higher ceiling, non-40 man, A ball prospects as our system is currently top heavy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This was probably a good example of trading at surplus (and a valuable surplus at that) and both trading for need, accepting some risk, and trading for the future. The Twins needed a closer, and Nathan looked like he might fit the bill. Bonser was pretty much ready as a prospect, though he had lost some shine, and Liriano was a lottery ticket. There's no such thing as a pitching prospect, but Ryan really did hit the jack pot on this one. Now to be fair, this trade would never happen today.

 

 

Odds are no trade works out that well, but I don't think that trade couldn't happen now. 3 years of a 27 year old catcher with a career .301 AVG and 105 OPS+ could still fetch a lot, like a relief pitcher, a lotto ticket, and another minor piece.

 

The trades that don't happen anymore are more like 1 month of Dave Hollins for David Ortiz.

[terrydactyls]

Two things I would like to say.

 

1. One year ago, the Twins (both front office and fans) were hoping to remove themselves from the 90-loss level and maybe reach .500 baseball. One step they made to reach this "lofty" goal was to bring back Hunter. It was hoped he would make some contributions on the field, but his primary role was to mentor younger players. In my opinion, he fulfilled his contract. I think people get too caught up in the mystical 2015 playoff run and forget the Twins were not that good.

 

2. I've repeatedly read about Sano being an athleticly gifted young man. I have no reason to doubt this statement. Based on my 50 years of playing experience (little league up to and including over-50 leagues) playing 1st base, 3rd base, and the outfield (also a little shortstop but not enough to matter), I feel that 3rd base is the most physically demanding. If people think Sano is athletic enough to play 3rd base, then he should be able to handle right or left field. Remember, a far less athletic Harmon Killebrew played left field for the Twins and no one complained about that.

[howieramone2]

 

Two things I would like to say.

1. One year ago, the Twins (both front office and fans) were hoping to remove themselves from the 90-loss level and maybe reach .500 baseball. One step they made to reach this "lofty" goal was to bring back Hunter. It was hoped he would make some contributions on the field, but his primary role was to mentor younger players. In my opinion, he fulfilled his contract. I think people get too caught up in the mystical 2015 playoff run and forget the Twins were not that good.

2. I've repeatedly read about Sano being an athleticly gifted young man. I have no reason to doubt this statement. Based on my 50 years of playing experience (little league up to and including over-50 leagues) playing 1st base, 3rd base, and the outfield (also a little shortstop but not enough to matter), I feel that 3rd base is the most physically demanding. If people think Sano is athletic enough to play 3rd base, then he should be able to handle right or left field. Remember, a far less athletic Harmon Killebrew played left field for the Twins and no one complained about that.

Bingo!

[alarp33]

 

Two things I would like to say.

1. One year ago, the Twins (both front office and fans) were hoping to remove themselves from the 90-loss level and maybe reach .500 baseball. One step they made to reach this "lofty" goal was to bring back Hunter. It was hoped he would make some contributions on the field, but his primary role was to mentor younger players. In my opinion, he fulfilled his contract. I think people get too caught up in the mystical 2015 playoff run and forget the Twins were not that good.

2. I've repeatedly read about Sano being an athleticly gifted young man. I have no reason to doubt this statement. Based on my 50 years of playing experience (little league up to and including over-50 leagues) playing 1st base, 3rd base, and the outfield (also a little shortstop but not enough to matter), I feel that 3rd base is the most physically demanding. If people think Sano is athletic enough to play 3rd base, then he should be able to handle right or left field. Remember, a far less athletic Harmon Killebrew played left field for the Twins and no one complained about that.

 

The greatest trick Terry Ryan ever pulled was making people believe a Mentor was $10.5 million. Maybe, just MAYBE the Twins exceeded expectations because they stayed healthy, had extreme cluster luck, Sano carried the offense at times in 2nd half, etc.  

 

I don't think there's many people who believe Sano is physically incapable of playing outfield.  They believe that moving your top hitting prospect to the OF to keep an avg at best veteran around, eventually blocking Kepler, etc. isn't the wisest course of action.  

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

It isn't just about "can Sano play the outfield?"  

 

It's also about where he plays and how that best fits the upcoming talent.  Sano playing third gives us the possibility of a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler Outfield of Awesomeness.  It also opens up the DH spot for Park or someone else - meaning the positions easiest to fill with good bats are still available (RF and DH) and one of the harder spots (3B) is manned by a beast.

 

This is a very real possibility once we can shed Plouffe for something of value:

 

Buxton-Mauer-Dozier-Sano-Arcia/Park/Some other Dude-Kepler-Rosario-Murphy-Escobar

 

Long term it is monumentally stupid to continue with the plan we're rolling into 2016 with.  I just hope the shift to the future comes sooner rather than later.

[drjim]

 

Actually, $1.7 M is peanuts in a 21st Century MLB payroll.

 

I would have thought that it was obvious to everyone that something was very wrong physically with Stauffer from the first time I saw him throw in ST. Not only did the velo never show even fleeting signs of recovery, but Stauffer looked utterly unable to fully utilize arm, shoulder and upper body movements and full extension in delivering MLB-level pitching.

 

Pressly OTOH, actually increased his velocity by 1-1.5 MPH over his previous 2 seasons (as a 26-year old should do). His strike-to-ball count ratio was 2:1 ( by contrast, Timmy's S-B count was 1:1.5). Only the Twins initial reluctance to roster him out of Spring Training, plus a bad BABIP and finally injury held Pressly back from having a very solid season.

 

I think the Twins should have known what they had in him, and been unafraid to DL Stauffer and promote Pressly to the roster last April 1. (Even Molitor now admits what could have been, and what still might be for Press (from Rotowire)-

 

 

And I'm not even Ryan Pressly's biggest fan, but that was an easy call last spring.

 

If you don't count the fact he got hit and then injured, Pressly had a great year!

 

I'm actually relatively high on him, I expect a pretty good season, rendering a lot of the consternation about relievers moot.

[drjim]

 

The greatest trick Terry Ryan ever pulled was making people believe a Mentor was $10.5 million. Maybe, just MAYBE the Twins exceeded expectations because they stayed healthy, had extreme cluster luck, Sano carried the offense at times in 2nd half, etc.  

 

I don't think there's many people who believe Sano is physically incapable of playing outfield.  They believe that moving your top hitting prospect to the OF to keep an avg at best veteran around, eventually blocking Kepler, etc. isn't the wisest course of action.  

 

And maybe Hunter had an impact on the team that is not completely captured by WAR. If his teammates say something, maybe it is actually true.

 

It seems Hunter gave the time what they needed, when they needed it, for as long as they needed it. And it was great for everyone that he rode off into the sunset.

[howieramone2]

 

The greatest trick Terry Ryan ever pulled was making people believe a Mentor was $10.5 million. Maybe, just MAYBE the Twins exceeded expectations because they stayed healthy, had extreme cluster luck, Sano carried the offense at times in 2nd half, etc.  

 

I don't think there's many people who believe Sano is physically incapable of playing outfield.  They believe that moving your top hitting prospect to the OF to keep an avg at best veteran around, eventually blocking Kepler, etc. isn't the wisest course of action.  

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

[drjim]

 

It isn't just about "can Sano play the outfield?"  

 

It's also about where he plays and how that best fits the upcoming talent.  Sano playing third gives us the possibility of a Rosario-Buxton-Kepler Outfield of Awesomeness.  It also opens up the DH spot for Park or someone else - meaning the positions easiest to fill with good bats are still available (RF and DH) and one of the harder spots (3B) is manned by a beast.

 

This is a very real possibility once we can shed Plouffe for something of value:

 

Buxton-Mauer-Dozier-Sano-Arcia/Park/Some other Dude-Kepler-Rosario-Murphy-Escobar

 

Long term it is monumentally stupid to continue with the plan we're rolling into 2016 with.  I just hope the shift to the future comes sooner rather than later.

 

I just don't see how a season or two in the OF makes it impossible for Sano to move back to 3B or 1B. There is enough talent coming up that flexibility is a good thing, and let the players sort it out.

 

Perfectly acceptable way to start the season, and has the benefit of keeping as many good bats in the lineup as possible.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I just don't see how a season or two in the OF makes it impossible for Sano to move back to 3B or 1B. There is enough talent coming up that flexibility is a good thing, and let the players sort it out.

 

Perfectly acceptable way to start the season, and has the benefit of keeping as many good bats in the lineup as possible.

 

It'd be better to let Sano develop defensively.  I'm sure he can switch back and return to where he is now.  But I'd much rather let him advance as a defender (like Plouffe did) with time at the position rather than sending him to learn something new in the name of a player whose time here is rapidly coming to an end.

[Mike Sixel]

 

And maybe Hunter had an impact on the team that is not completely captured by WAR. If his teammates say something, maybe it is actually true.

 

It seems Hunter gave the time what they needed, when they needed it, for as long as they needed it. And it was great for everyone that he rode off into the sunset.

 

Which players did Hunter make better? Will they still be that good this year, or worse? I don't the answer to either. But unless someone can say "he made Rosario much better than he otherwise would have been, or Sano or Buxton"....who was he mentoring? Mauer? Suzuki? Dozier? Escobar? Plouffe? Hughes? Perkins? Ervin Santana? I could keep listing the veterans on this roster.....but the point is, there weren't many young players even on the roster for him to mentor, were there?

 

Does anyone think that Sano would have hit worse if Hunter wasn't there? If so, Hunter was worth about 20-30MM? Right?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This.  Now Mauer had a better defensive pedigree coming up, but it's the same idea: Plouffe's time at third should be over.  He should be the one moving around if anyone.

I can't really buy into this line of thought. The Twins' goal is to win as many ballgames as possible in 2016.

 

Trevor Plouffe gains much of his value from the defensive side of the game. Sano is a question mark but we can surely agree he will be a downgrade from Plouffe.

 

So you have two options: play one guy out of position and hide him somewhere damage will be minimized or play two guys out of position and sacrifice defense at multiple locations.

 

In a perfect world, Plouffe would have been traded and we wouldn't have this conversation... But that didn't happen so it makes sense to maximize your defensive alignment as much as possible and that means Plouffe plays more time at third.

 

If it was my decision, Sano would start at third one or twice a week and as the season progressed, he'd steadily get more time at the hot corner. If he can handle the position, you look into trading Plouffe for a piece you need at the deadline. If he can't handle the position, Plouffe stays at third the majority of the time and you revaluate next November.

 

The Mauer comp isn't a good one. Mauer wasn't only expected to be a better offensive weapon than Pierzynski, at only 21 years old he was already much better defensively. Putting Mauer behind the dish wasn't a sacrifice, it was a win-win move and was obvious from day one.

[jimmer]

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

this team is completely rebuilt? Don't see that. Also, when you look at how much rebuilding has been done, is it all due to him and was it all done just since he has been back?

[TheLeviathan]

As I said earlier Brock, the problem was the decision made months ago to keep Plouffe.  The market has yielded little fruit for those trading 3B, but I think it's clear from Ryan's comments that it was never even entertained.

 

As of today we need to play Plouffe and that causes issues.  I'm hoping Plouffe's existence on the roster isn't for much longer.  He's a fine player, but not one worth shuffling people around to keep in the lineup.

[alarp33]

 

Actually, the greatest trick TR ever pulled was completely rebuilding a mid-market team in less than 4 years.

 

Sarcasm?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sarcasm?

 

Valid question, but no.  

[DaveW]

 

 The Twins' goal is to win as many ballgames as possible in 2016.

 

The lack of fixing the pen and all the other holes/question marks (OF/CF) makes me honestly question if this is the Twins sincere "goal" for 2016

 

 

[alarp33]

 

Valid question, but no.  

 

Huh. The Twins are projected to finish last in the AL Central, and any glimmer of hope they have centers around guys like Sano, Kepler, Gibson, Dozier etc... I assumed on a board like this most people would know Bill Smith signed/drafted them.  

 

But TR did do a great job drafting the top ranked player in the 2012 draft at #2.  

[DaveW]

The real thing people need to look at is the following:

Is the team better off with Plouffe at 3rd and Sano in LF

or with Sano at 3rd and either:

1. Rejuvenated Arica in LF

2. Kepler in LF

3. FA signing (earlier) for LF

or

4. Trade for a corner OF

 

I think the team is best off with Sano at 3rd (I think he will be league average defensively) and a big bat in the corner OF (NTM Sano is going to struggle defensively in the OF)

 

If it were up to me, I would trade Plouffe for (A solid RP and a couple far away but high upside prospects)

And then I would trade/buy low on Jay Bruce and have him play LF. You should be able to snag him from Cinci for not a whole lot, and if he plays well, then you have him on his player option for 2017.

Almost as importantly it gives the Twins another nice left handed bat.

 

 

[alarp33]

 

I think Levi meant that the person who said TR rebuilt this team in less than four years wasn't meaning it sarcastically. the poster actually believes it. Wasn't sarcasm, it was homerism

 

Yeah that's what I meant in my reply - was speaking to original poster who made that preposterous statement. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

As I said earlier Brock, the problem was the decision made months ago to keep Plouffe. The market has yielded little fruit for those trading 3B, but I think it's clear from Ryan's comments that it was never even entertained.

 

As of today we need to play Plouffe and that causes issues. I'm hoping Plouffe's existence on the roster isn't for much longer. He's a fine player, but not one worth shuffling people around to keep in the lineup.

I'd argue signing Park caused the biggest issue but "tomato, tomahto".

 

In the end, I suspect it will work out. Redundancy isn't the worst thing in the world but it'd be a hell of a lot better if that redundancy didn't revolve around 3B/1B/DH.

[alarp33]

 

I'd argue signing Park caused the biggest issue but "tomato, tomahto".

In the end, I suspect it will work out. Redundancy isn't the worst thing in the world but it'd be a hell of a lot better if that redundancy didn't revolve around 3B/1B/DH.

 

Park was signed with the idea that Plouffe would be traded, I refuse to believe whatever the Twins say to the contrary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Park was signed with the idea that Plouffe would be traded, I refuse to believe whatever the Twins say to the contrary.

I suspect that was the case. It's unfortunate the market bottomed out on 3B this offseason.

 

But Levi has a point... Ryan never wavered from the "I'm not trading Trevor" line... But Ryan often says stuff like that so I don't put much stock in his quotes. He plays it extremely close to the vest.

 

Flip a coin, IMO. It's possible Ryan was feinting, it's possible he never had plans to trade Plouffe.