Article: Charting The Competition: Detroit Tigers

[Nick Nelson]

From 2011 through 2014, Detroit reigned over the AL Central, winning the division (and at least one postseason series) every year, with a lineup powered by Miguel Cabrera and a rotation led by Justin Verlander.

 

In 2015, the Tigers suddenly sunk to last place in the division, failing to overcome reduced contributions from their erstwhile superstars and receiving minimal production from role players.Looking back, it's kind of amazing a team that had Yoenis Cespedes AND David Price, along with Cabrera hitting at an MVP level, in the first half was in position to sell everything by the end of July in a wide open American League.

 

But that speaks to how badly things went off the rails elsewhere. Verlander missed the first 10 weeks and only sporadically looked like himself after returning. Outside of Price's sterling four months, the entire rotation was a mess around him. Cabrera missed a month with a calf injury. Victor Martinez, MVP runner-up a year earlier, hobbled around on a bad knee and posted career lows in batting average (.245) and OPS (.667).

 

In many ways, it's tempting to count the Tigers out. Cabrera and Verlander aren't getting any younger, and Detroit's organizational talent was ranked 30th out of 30 clubs by Baseball America last March.

 

However, their pipeline was reinfused quite a bit last summer by the Cespedes and Price trades. And whereas the Twins have taken a very passive approach this offseason, relying on their talented young core to keep improving and driving further progress, the Tigers have been proactive in reinforcing their aging roster.

 

The signing of Justin Upton this week to a six-year, $132.75 million contract is an enormous move. Upton is a premium athlete who will thrive offensively in Detroit's park and is only 28.

 

He drastically upgrades a Tigers lineup that will already be bringing back a healthy Cabrera and J.D. Martinez, who is coming off a 38-homer campaign.

 

Jordan Zimmermann, one of the best free agent starters on the market, was signed to join Verlander at the top of the rotation and the Tigers are hopeful that our old friend Mike Pelfrey can add a little more reliability at the bottom.

 

Meanwhile, the acquisition of All-Star closer Francisco Rodriguez from Milwaukee powers up the bullpen significantly.

 

Even coming off a 74-win season, the Tigers are undeniably a threat, and they could be downright dangerous if Verlander's late-season resurgence (2.30 ERA in his final 10 starts) carries over while a few younger guys emerge.

 

We'll see whether new general manager Al Avila's profound aggressiveness in the wake of a nosedive pays off.

 

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[bluechipper]

Looking at Detroit's roster, they look really talented, but I thought the same thing last year. And since last year, their big acquisitions are basically replacing David Price and Yoenis Cespedes with Jordan Zimmerman and Justin Upton, which is roughly even when you include the bullpen upgrades.

 

It should be an interesting year in the Central.

[old nurse]

Ztmmerman, Upton,  Iglesias,McCann and J D Martinez are what is young and good about the team.  Age and injuries determine the rest of the team. Holy crapshoot Batman.

[REPETE]

a healthy Verlander alone puts them at 500.  Let's hope Kate Upton can really screw up his head so he can't pitch.    

[Winston Smith]

Even if the Tigers moves fail it would be nice to have an owner that really wanted to win and not just worry about making money.

[Vanimal46]

Offense will most certainly not be a problem for the Tigers. Miggy Cabrera is creeping up there in age, but is still one of the most feared hitters in the league. Upton's a streaky hitter, but if both Cabrera and Upton are on fire at the same time, watch out... 

It all depends on their pitching. If that's figured out on their end, I don't see why they wouldn't be contenders until the end in the AL Central. 

[beckmt]

I agree with much of the above, however teams like this can get old in a hurry.  Bullpen is much better at the end, but little change above.  Zimmermann is not Price and rest of rotation is iffy.  What you get out of Verlander could be the determining of which end of the crapshoot they are on.   To get to be really dangerous might have had to spend another 20 - 30 million to upgrade the pitching.  This team has at most a 3 year window after which the desert beckons.

[Don Walcott]

Unfortunately, if the Tigers are competitive, they're also likely to add the best available pitcher on the market before the trade deadline.  And the Twins are highly unlikely to do that (or even try).

 

If Miggy stays healthy this season, he'll probably have another MVP season with the support from the Martinezes and Upton.

[Willihammer]

IMO the Tigers are among the top 3 worst run franchises in baseball. They can't construct a bullpen to save their souls. K-rod? He's 34, can't crack 90 mph barely. He is gonna get smoked in any playoff situation just like Nathan and Valverde and Dotel and Coke and all the other "proven" geezers before him. Relief pitching is a young man's game and the Tigers are going the wrong way, fast.

 

There might be a year or two where Verlander, Upton, Zimmerman and Cabrera and JD Martinez can keep them around 2nd place but that is a best case scenario IMO. Too many injury and decline possibilities on the roster with no youth ready to step up. They have really screwed themselves there. I'd put the over under at 74 wins again. Same as last year.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Willihammer

[gunnarthor]

I'm pretty much ready to write them off.  Their pitching was horrible last year and Zimmerman is a pretty overrated NL pitcher.  Upton is a good slugger but he isn't enough.  I think they'll finish last in the Central again.

[Circus Boy]

 

a healthy Verlander alone puts them at 500.  Let's hope Kate Upton can really screw up his head so he can't pitch.    

 

You mean Justin Upton, no?

[Seth Stohs]

 

You mean Justin Upton, no?

 

Nope, he doesn't.

[Nick Nelson]

[Vanimal46]

Can Bark come out of the woodwork to photoshop my face on Verlander's body? 

That is all. 

[nicksaviking]

That rotation is becoming very underwhelming. It used to be a group of fireballers that would make the batters walk back to the bench with bat in hand a dozen times a game. Adding Norris, Zimmerman and Pelfrey promises those days are gone. Verlander's 95-97 MPH heater is gone and because of this, his once killer changeup is also done and rarely used last year.

 

Cabrera had a history of playing hurt and still playing well. That ended last year as he finally missed significant time due to injury. He's still a great hitter but his power is fading, we've been saying he's a time bomb for years, one of these years it's going to be true.

 

I think they're trying to patch a sinking ship. Good for them, they haven't given up, but it looks to me like they are just drawing out the inevitable.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

If healthy, their lineup is better than ours. Their top 4 SP's are better than ours. Their BP is improved, and ours is not great anyway. 

 

We do have a lot more average replacements though. 

[gocgo]

 

a healthy Verlander alone puts them at 500.  Let's hope Kate Upton can really screw up his head so he can't pitch.    

I know that she's the reason I can't pitch.

[bird]

The Justin Upton signing is an obvious and desperate attempt to temporarily cycle up into contention one last time before the bills start to come in. It might just work. But after 2016, they seem fairly destined for a sustained period of obscurity. The farm system outside of Norris, Fullmer and possibly one other guy is barren. They'll have years of contract obligations with almost nothing to show for it, and they've moved just about every prospect they have now.

 

And the Upton signing is not going to be enough unless everything gels for them, most importantly Verlander and Sanchez. It's at least a possibility that Arcia and/or Park give the Twins about what Upton gives the Tigers, let alone a full year of Sano and a MLB-ready Buxton. Counting on productive starts from Norris, Fullmer and that one other guy is no better than counting on Berrios, Duffey and May to bolster the Twins rotation in 2016.

[lwarring]

The Tigers seem like the poster child for why a GM wouldn't just throw money at the problem when trying to improve a club. It seems the owner decided to go 'all in' a few years ago and then continued to spend even when the formula didn't work.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

IMO the Tigers are among the top 3 worst run franchises in baseball. They can't construct a bullpen to save their souls. K-rod? He's 34, can't crack 90 mph barely. He is gonna get smoked in any playoff situation just like Nathan and Valverde and Dotel and Coke and all the other "proven" geezers before him. Relief pitching is a young man's game and the Tigers are going the wrong way, fast.

They've definitely had bullpen issues, but I like their pen moves this winter.  K-Rod keeps getting the job done, Mark Lowe was a nice signing, and Justin Wilson had a very strong season for the Yankees.  K-Rod and Lowe are the only 30+ year olds in their pen, and even they're only 33 and 34 and coming off very strong seasons.  Lowe even pitched pretty well in the playoffs last year for Toronto.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Tigers seem like the poster child for why a GM wouldn't just throw money at the problem when trying to improve a club. It seems the owner decided to go 'all in' a few years ago and then continued to spend even when the formula didn't work.

The Tigers had four straight first place finishes before last season.  I'm not sure one season is enough to show that "the formula didn't work".

 

What exactly would be the better approach?  They've got too many good players to just blow it up or do nothing, so why not try to add a few more pieces?  Especially in an offseason when your first round pick is protected.  They have a very good chance to be in the mix for the division race, which is kinda the whole point, isn't it?  Blowing it up or doing nothing hurt those chances, and doesn't exactly offer a clear path to a better team in the future either.

[big dog]

If healthy, they'll be good.  But they are old, and at least a few key pieces are going to miss significant parts of the season with injuries.  That's what I said last year, and it's even more likely to be true this year.

[Pardon My Dinger]

They're going to be pretty bad. All due respect to Miggy, but this is pretty much the same bunch of used-up old codgers from last year. Then you consider that their LF out of the gate last year was Cespedes, and Upton doesn't look so hot anymore. Then, you try to imagine a universe where Zimmerman is anywhere remotely close to David Price's calibur, and all of a sudden, it's not looking good for the kitties.

[Blake]

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/70087564/v249094283

 

Because no Tiger thread is complete without this video.

[alarp33]

 

They're going to be pretty bad. All due respect to Miggy, but this is pretty much the same bunch of used-up old codgers from last year. Then you consider that their LF out of the gate last year was Cespedes, and Upton doesn't look so hot anymore. Then, you try to imagine a universe where Zimmerman is anywhere remotely close to David Price's calibur, and all of a sudden, it's not looking good for the kitties.

 

The bullpen should be much better.  Yes, they don't get 20 starts from Price like they got last year, they also won't get 31 starts from Alfredo Simon, 27 from the combo of Shane Greene + Kyle Lobstein.  A top 3 of Verlander, Zimmerman, Norris could be very very good, with Michael Fulmer likely giving them innings at some point.  

 

Vegas has them at 12/1 to Win the AL Pennant, tied with KC + Cleveland for best odds from the Central.  I think that's more than fair. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Then you consider that their LF out of the gate last year was Cespedes, and Upton doesn't look so hot anymore.

Cespedes, career OPS+: 122

Upton, career OPS+: 121

 

If your point was that Upton merely offsets the loss of Cespedes, Upton doesn't offset Cespedes and leave them as a 74 win team.  When they dealt Cespedes last year, they were still 50-52, about 5 full wins ahead of where they actually finished.

 

 

Then, you try to imagine a universe where Zimmerman is anywhere remotely close to David Price's calibur, and all of a sudden, it's not looking good for the kitties.

 

David Price, career ERA+: 126

Jordan Zimmermann, career ERA+: 118

 

I'd say that's remotely close.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Further expanding on my above post, the Tigers were 50-52, 3.5 games out of the second wild card, a 79.5 win full season pace when they traded Price, Cespedes, and Soria at the deadline.  Given that they've replaced those 3 with Zimmermann, Upton, and K-Rod, not to mention a few other moves (Lowe, Wilson, Salty, Maybin), 79-80 wins is probably a better "baseline" to use for judging their 2015 performance going forward.

 

Furthermore, they lost Cabrera for a month and a half on July 3, at which point they were 40-39, only 1.5 games out of the postseason.  They didn't get much of anything from Verlander until August either.

 

Obviously they could lose Cabrera again, etc., but the point is, they were fully in the mix in the middle of 2015 even with a lot of dreadful performances, injuries, etc.  Given their present roster, I see no reason they shouldn't project to fully be in the mix again for 2016-2017, which seems a lot better plan for them than whatever alternatives have been suggested here (rebuilding? standing pat and saving cash?).

 

They obviously don't project to be a 90+ win team, but few teams ever do, and I'm not sure that's the most meaningful goal or target.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Unlike Nick, I'm bearish on the Tigers, just as I was bearish on them in January of last year.

 

Could they be decent? Sure, they certainly have the talent... But man, it's going to not only require a few 30-something guys to rebound, it's going to require a few more 30-something guys to sustain last year's performance level.

 

I think that's a stretch. While they made a few good acquisitions this offseason, is it enough to offset the combined 7.5-ish WAR they lost in Cespedes and Price? I'm... Skeptical, to put it mildly.

 

I don't think the Tigers are a terrible team (sub-70 wins) but I think they'll struggle to reach 75 wins unless everything goes right... And, like I said earlier, expecting everything to go right on a team full of 30-somethings is a tall order.

[Mike Sixel]

What will the Twins' record be if not everything goes right?

 

Like, Sano has a slump, and is terrible in the OF, Park can't hit MLB pitching, and Santana is terrible in CF and Buxton doesn't hit in AAA?

 

All of the analysis here is "everything will go wrong for this club, so they'll suck". That's true of every team.

 

As for what they should have done this offseason......why not try to win one more year? Those contracts are not super tradeable, so they have those guys. should they have just sat there, and done nothing?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What will the Twins' record be if not everything goes right?

 

Like, Sano has a slump, and is terrible in the OF, Park can't hit MLB pitching, and Santana is terrible in CF and Buxton doesn't hit in AAA?

 

All of the analysis here is "everything will go wrong for this club, so they'll suck". That's true of every team.

 

As for what they should have done this offseason......why not try to win one more year? Those contracts are not super tradeable, so they have those guys. should they have just sat there, and done nothing?

I didn't say "everything will go wrong", I said "it's unlikely everything will go right when you're banking on that many 30-somethings".

 

If performance is neutral for both teams, I expect the Twins to be a handful of wins better than the Tigers (let's say 3-4 wins) because they're relying on a bunch of mid-20s players to improve, not a bunch of mid-30s players to bounce back or sustain past performance. Things "not going right" for the Twins could mean Sano still posts an .800 OPS and Buxton gets a bunch of OF time and they stall out in the 78-80 win range. Things "not going right" for the Tigers could mean they repeat last year's 74 win total.

 

Over the course of a season, having guys like Berrios/Kepler/Burdi/Meyer as fall-back options can make a huge difference, just as Duffey made a huge difference in 2015.