Dodgers interested in Willingham

[cr9617]

God, this would be terrible. Do people generally have a bad feeling about the Twins all the way through 2014? This guy is on pace to hit more homers than anybody in Twins memory (are we talking Killebrew here?) and trading him is seen as a remotely good idea!? Do you people know what kind of drop that means for the Twins lineup? Do you have ANY idea? Say goodbye until 2016 at the earliest.

This team could lose 90-95 games with or without the Hammer. It's all about pitching...

[Guest USAFChief]

The AJ trade says otherwise....

the AJ trade wasn't an example of JR trading prospects for a player in his prime.

[chopper0080]

God, this would be terrible. Do people generally have a bad feeling about the Twins all the way through 2014? This guy is on pace to hit more homers than anybody in Twins memory (are we talking Killebrew here?) and trading him is seen as a remotely good idea!? Do you people know what kind of drop that means for the Twins lineup? Do you have ANY idea? Say goodbye until 2016 at the earliest.

This is my point. I can't in good concious say Willingham is untradeable, but he would have to bring a huge return for us to unload him in my opinion. I would say it should take multiple pitching prospects, at least one being a top prospect. I'm not sure if a team would be willing to part with a package like that (though it is a possibility as the market for power bats is limited), and if not, that is fine by me. My point is Willingham is extremely valuable to this team and brings power to our lineup which we don't have without him. Trust me, if you think our pitching is lacking, try finding a power bat that is close to the majors. Benson was the closest that I could find and then he went into the tank, and the only other one would be Arcia.

[chopper0080]

This team could lose 90-95 games with or without the Hammer. It's all about pitching...

As TK loves to say, "you have to hit it to win it." I agree pitching is very important, but having power in your lineup gives your starting pitching much needed wiggle room. Scott Diamond is not a great pitcher, but with Willingham in our lineup, he can arguably win 15 games. The problem with our pitching isn't that it is bad, it is that it's bad throughout our system.

[nicksaviking]

As TK loves to say, "you have to hit it to win it." I agree pitching is very important, but having power in your lineup gives your starting pitching much needed wiggle room. Scott Diamond is not a great pitcher, but with Willingham in our lineup, he can arguably win 15 games. The problem with our pitching isn't that it is bad, it is that it's bad throughout our system.

Than how do the Twins fix that other than trading star players? They don't draft or develop pitchers well and they are unwilling to hand out contracts +4 years for arms. I don't want to trade Willingham but if top arms are being offered, the Twins need to do it. No other player will bring back a package even close to what he could.

 

It would be terrible to lose Willingham but does anyone really see this team competing in the next two years? What's the point of keeping a guy durning three consecutive losing seasons? This team is going to lose no matter how potent the offense is if they can't get top of the rotation arms, and fans come out to the park depending on wins and losses, not because of the left-fielder. Some of the Twins worst attendance figures were during the terrible mid to late 1990's seasons despite having possibly the most beloved MN athlete ever, Kirby Puckett, perennial All-Star Chuck Knoblauch and hometown hero Paul Molitor.

 

People were upset the Twins traded Chuck Knoblauch, but in retrospect it was a great move. Does anyone really care that the Knoblauch era didn't last two more years?

[strumdatjag]

The Twins are in a position where anyone is expendable (except Mauer, because of the "local-boy" public relations disaster). Those expendables include an aging outifielder like Willingham. Of course, the price has to be reasonable. Otherwise, his homerun power is worth keeping. The Twins future is an outfield with speed with Ben Revere in left (where his weak arm is less of a liability). Between Garcia, Hicks and Benson (and Span if he isn't traded), the Twins are well-stocked for this kind of outfield. The Twins now have power from the right side - his name is Trevor Plouffe, and it looks like Hicks might develop some power from both sides of the plate.

[StormJH1]

I know Aaron Gleeman is all over trading him, and I can't argue with many of the reasons in favor of trading him. We are the worst team in the AL, and Willingham is an aging veteran in his mid-30's, whose value will never be higher.

 

But I still don't know if I can do it. There are other factors at play here. This team down about 4,500 fans per game over last year, but as bad as they've been, I don't even want to think about where they'd be if we didn't have the Hammer. So what message does dumping him for a couple mid-level prospects send to the fans, and what happens then? He's having the type of season Thome had in 2010, except he's actually MORE valuable than Thome was that year because he can play every day and (kind of) take up a position in the field. He's the right handed power hitter Twins fans have coveted for YEARS, and the significance of that is only lost because the team is so damned awful.

 

So I know when you have a terrible team with needs all over the place that you're supposed to sell vets like him for prospects, but I'm afraid to do that. I'm afraid of the message it sends to free agents (much like the reputation the A's and Rays have about turning over players), and afraid that we'll spend another decade chasing a bat like this, even if he can only play at a high level for another 1 or 2 seasons.

 

I'm still planning on going to games, and the fans that do show up need something to watch. Unlike Mauer, you don't need sabermetrics to explain the the impact Willingham has had on dozens of games this year, you know it when you see it.

[Yoshii]

Loney sucks.

[StormJH1]

Than how do the Twins fix that other than trading star players? They don't draft or develop pitchers well and they are unwilling to hand out contracts +4 years for arms. I don't want to trade Willingham but if top arms are being offered, the Twins need to do it. No other player will bring back a package even close to what he could.

 

It would be terrible to lose Willingham but does anyone really see this team competing in the next two years? What's the point of keeping a guy durning three consecutive losing seasons? This team is going to lose no matter how potent the offense is if they can't get top of the rotation arms, and fans come out to the park depending on wins and losses, not because of the left-fielder. Some of the Twins worst attendance figures were during the terrible mid to late 1990's seasons despite having possibly the most beloved MN athlete ever, Kirby Puckett, perennial All-Star Chuck Knoblauch and hometown hero Paul Molitor.

 

People were upset the Twins traded Chuck Knoblauch, but in retrospect it was a great move. Does anyone really care that the Knoblauch era didn't last two more years?

Interesting argument, but not entirely accurate. Yes, the Twins attendance figures were bad in the mid-90's, but they still had Puckett in '95 and Molitor did play until '98, but he was 41 years old by that point. They had the worst attendance in the AL in '98, '99, and 2000, and those were teams "led" by such stars as Ron Coomer and Matt Lawton. Then the whole contraction scare happened, the team got significantly better, and the Torii Hunter, etc. group of players came into power. Same terrible Dome, better on-field results and attendance.

 

So, yeah, there were star players to come see in the mid-90's, and the fans still didn't show because the team was bad. But it can get worse. When you delete the recognizable faces from an already bad team, I really do believe it keeps the casual fan away. Similar to what happened to the T-Wolves between KG's departure and the emergence of Kevin Love.

 

No, I'm not saying Willingham is necessarily a big ticket item who can sell seats on his own, but if he's not one of the guys in that conversation, who is? Mauer, obviously, has served that role for years...and then? Morneau has question marks about his future and we'll see if Span is even here in a few weeks.

[chopper0080]

Than how do the Twins fix that other than trading star players? They don't draft or develop pitchers well and they are unwilling to hand out contracts +4 years for arms. I don't want to trade Willingham but if top arms are being offered, the Twins need to do it. No other player will bring back a package even close to what he could.

 

It would be terrible to lose Willingham but does anyone really see this team competing in the next two years? What's the point of keeping a guy durning three consecutive losing seasons? This team is going to lose no matter how potent the offense is if they can't get top of the rotation arms, and fans come out to the park depending on wins and losses, not because of the left-fielder. Some of the Twins worst attendance figures were during the terrible mid to late 1990's seasons despite having possibly the most beloved MN athlete ever, Kirby Puckett, perennial All-Star Chuck Knoblauch and hometown hero Paul Molitor.

 

People were upset the Twins traded Chuck Knoblauch, but in retrospect it was a great move. Does anyone really care that the Knoblauch era didn't last two more years?

I'm not saying Willingham is untradeable, but I do think the Twins should make sure they get a tremendous offer in order to unload him.

[TheLeviathan]

Willingham's age and track record of injury are pretty compelling reasons to pull a trigger on a good offer.

[beckmt]

The A's are at .500 with the worst batting average and OB percentage in the American league, why because they can pitch. You can make do with less hitting if your staff can hold the opposition to 4 runs a game.

Fans come out to see a ballclub that has a chance, without pitching the Twins do not have a chance. The Twins offense is not good enough at the bottom of the lineup to score the 850- 900 runs in a year to compete without pitching

Twins have to improve both the starting pitching and the lower part of the lineup to make it back to the top.

We need to trade anyone on this team (except Mauer who is untradeable) to improve orgainization pitching depth. That will put the onus on Terry Ryan and the scouts to find the correct prospects, but the Twins cannot live with the starting pitching we have now. Only by bringing in a lot of prospect(upper level) will the Twins be able to become relevant again.

[drjim]

Terry Ryan has never once traded a package of minor league prospects for an in his prime player. Never. Not one time. Why do you think he would do that now? Every player on this roster is available, Ryan said that on the radio yesterday, and he's right. This team lost 99 games last year, and will likely lose around 90 this year. There is almost no help in AAA that looks likely to be successful (though it is possible Hendriks can be a 4/5 starter). They have to do something, something out of character. I'd bet they are more likely to sign FA(s), than to trade what few prospects they have.

Different financial reality for the team at this point than last time Ryan was GM. It wouldn't make sense to do a trade like that now, mostly because a losing team should be hoarding prospects instead of trading them, and none of the Twins prospects have enough value to get a worthwhile player at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Different financial reality for the team at this point than last time Ryan was GM. It wouldn't make sense to do a trade like that now, mostly because a losing team should be hoarding prospects instead of trading them, and none of the Twins prospects have enough value to get a worthwhile player at this point.

Yeah. In the early/mid 2000s, it was understandable why JR didn't trade prospects. He needed those guys, as he could barely keep the team together given those payrolls. Now, the team is bad so it doesn't make sense to trade prospects for an entirely different reason.

[kab21]

Willingham's age and track record of injury are pretty compelling reasons to pull a trigger on a good offer.

Agreed. I'm skeptical of 33 yr old breakouts. combine that with his injury history and he is a prime sell high.

[diehardtwinsfan]

not exactly sure I'd call him a break out. He isn't hitting .300, and he's always had power. His type of power translates better to TF than it did to Oakland... that's about it.

[Badsmerf]

not exactly sure I'd call him a break out. He isn't hitting .300, and he's always had power. His type of power translates better to TF than it did to Oakland... that's about it.

How many HR in TF wouldn't have gone out in Oak?

[DaveW]

not exactly sure I'd call him a break out. He isn't hitting .300, and he's always had power. His type of power translates better to TF than it did to Oakland... that's about it.

He is 8th in the league in OPS ahead of guys like Bautista, Dunn, Konerko, Fielder and Beltre and immediately behind Miggy. How is this not a break out season?

 

If anything his .268 batting average indicates that this season is not a fluke, and that there is no reason not to think that he can't keep this up moving forward as long as he stays healthy.

[kab21]

not exactly sure I'd call him a break out. He isn't hitting .300, and he's always had power. His type of power translates better to TF than it did to Oakland... that's about it.

He has a career .847 OPS and a career high .863. this year he has a .943 OPS. He's always been a good hitter (when healthy) but he isn't this good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He has a career .847 OPS and a career high .863. this year he has a .943 OPS. He's always been a good hitter (when healthy) but he isn't this good.

Oddly enough, his road numbers are right in line with his career averages. It's his TF numbers that are skewing his line above the norm. Not sure what that means, just thought it was strange.

[TheLeviathan]

It is strange, but this park plays perfectly to him, far better than Oakland.

 

I'm still worried we're going to pause pulling this trigger and we'll see 300 ABs-a-year Hammer return and we'll have missed the boat on his best value.

[DPJ]

I'm still worried we're going to pause pulling this trigger and we'll see 300 ABs-a-year Hammer return and we'll have missed the boat on his best value.

 

Now that's the Twins way, selling incredibly low!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Even if Willingham has a bad second half (incredibly unlikely given his current play), his trade value will still be high this offseason. If the Twins feel the need to move him, they'll certainly be able to do so at that point and it won't look nearly as bad to the fanbase or incoming free agents.

[DPJ]

Even if Willingham has a bad second half (incredibly unlikely given his current play), his trade value will still be high this offseason. If the Twins feel the need to move him, they'll certainly be able to do so at that point and it won't look nearly as bad to the fanbase or incoming free agents.

What difference is there in trading him now and trading him in 6 months at the Winter Meetings?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What difference is there in trading him now and trading him in 6 months at the Winter Meetings?

Your potential trade market is a lot bigger in the winter meetings than it is at the trade deadline. It's already going to be a lot of work to trade Span, Liriano, and Capps and make sure you get fair market value (or better) for them. Adding another high profile player like Willingham might confuse the situation, making potential trade targets waffle between Willingham and Span.

 

If a clear-cut trade comes through that is a blockbuster for the Twins, you do it. But JR already has enough on his plate, I don't see the point in piling on even more guys when the market for outfielders is already limited.

[TheLeviathan]

Your potential trade market is a lot bigger in the winter meetings than it is at the trade deadline.

It's hokey and I don't like it....but the expanded wild-card spot has greatly increased the number of teams in the hunt for the postseason. I'm not sure there will be a "lot bigger" market in the winter as there is right now. (Ryan said much the same thing on the radio Sunday) I think the expanded slots and the changes in compensation may have expanded the trade deadline market much more than in years past.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's hokey and I don't like it....but the expanded wild-card spot has greatly increased the number of teams in the hunt for the postseason. I'm not sure there will be a "lot bigger" market in the winter as there is right now. (Ryan said much the same thing on the radio Sunday) I think the expanded slots and the changes in compensation may have expanded the trade deadline market much more than in years past.

Maybe not. It's hard to say for sure but the Twins already have an outfielder on the market. I don't see the point in confusing the situation by trading an immensely popular player under team control when Span is more expendable and already on the market.

 

Besides, a full season of Willingham is going to be worth more than the partial season he has put up thus far. Also, by holding off trading both guys in July, the Twins allow themselves to better gauge the Benson/Hicks/Arcia situation going into 2013. If more than one of them plays themselves onto the team, then Willingham is also expendable and if he keeps this up all season (or at least does well all season), his value going into 2013 will be extremely high.

 

I fail to see why the Twins need to rush into trading the entire team in the next two weeks. I understand that we as fans get prospect-hungry but I think some people around here need to step back and take a deep breath. Trade Span, Liriano, Capps and then see how the rest of the season plays out with both the newly acquired prospects and the guys already in the organization, then re-evaluate. There is no need to start trading willy-nilly just for the sake of trading willy-nilly.

[TheLeviathan]

Besides, a full season of Willingham is going to be worth more than the partial season he has put up thus far.

See this is where we disagree. I'm not sure how long Willingham continues to stay healthy. His last 5-6 seasons have all struggled to reach 500 ABs, sometimes less than 400. As he ages that isn't likely to get better and presents the real risk that this partial season will be the most valuable.

 

Imagine if he gets injured in August - that winter value drops dramatically. And that isn't wild speculation, his track record suggest an injury is only a matter of time. This is prime sell-high time. That isn't to say we go out of our way to get rid of him, but don't turn down a good deal if it's presented.

[Brock Beauchamp]

See this is where we disagree. I'm not sure how long Willingham continues to stay healthy. His last 5-6 seasons have all struggled to reach 500 ABs, sometimes less than 400. As he ages that isn't likely to get better and presents the real risk that this partial season will be the most valuable.

 

Imagine if he gets injured in August - that winter value drops dramatically. And that isn't wild speculation, his track record suggest an injury is only a matter of time. This is prime sell-high time. That isn't to say we go out of our way to get rid of him, but don't turn down a good deal if it's presented.

I don't think we're really disagreeing here. Willingham may get hurt, yes. On the other hand, if he doesn't get hurt, he just put up a full season of All-Star quality ABs. He's rolling right now and an injury is far from a certainty.

 

I'm not against JR listening to offers. What I'd prefer he not do is aggressively shop Willingham. Span is much more easily replaced by the Twins, they already have the guy on the roster. I'd like to see JR push Span hard and move him out for a pitching prospect. It's already going to be hard to get fair market value for two above average players in Span and Liriano. I don't see the point in adding a third player to the list when the Twins still don't know what they have in their minor league OF prospects. Wait until the offseason and re-evaluate the team once you've had a few months to soak in what Benson/Hicks/Arcia are doing, how Gibson is shaking out, and what your trade prospects from July look like in the organization.

 

Change too many pieces at once and there's a good chance you leave the organization weaker than it could have been had you waited to see how things played out for a few months. There are only 2 1/2 months left to the season. If the Twins want to move Willingham later, that option will always be there (with a slight risk/reward loss/gain involved).

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure I aggressively shop either of them - but reports from a couple people in town are that Willingham is considered the best trade piece on the team right now. I entertain offers for that and I don't hesitate to pull the trigger out of concern for public relations, future free agents, or anything else if the offer is right.