2016 Starting Rotation

[Lonestar]

As of now the Twins have 8 candidates for the starting rotation in 2016.   They are (alphabetically) Berrios, Duffey, Gibson, Hughes, May, Milone, Nolasco, and Santana.

Your assignment is to rank them so as to have the best rotation to win in 2016. 

This is not about who should be in the bullpen or how to dispose of certain candidates.  Simply about identifying the best rotation to win in 2016.  Explain.

You can have a second ranking if you think the Twins should use 2016 to set up long term success.

[Don Walcott]

Santana, Gibson, May, Duffey, Berrios.

 

Obviously, that leaves a lot of money on the bench.  But I think these 5 are the most talented starters we have, and in a perfect world, that would be our starting rotation on Opening Day.  If Hughes is the 2014 Hughes again, he'd replace Duffey.

[nytwinsfan]

All stats from 2015 unless otherwise stated.

 

1. Berrios (expectations + gut feeling)

2. Duffey (3.24 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.83 SIERA)

3. May (3.35 FIP as starter, 3.96 xFIP as starter, 3.53 SIERA (starter & reliever))

4. Gibson (3.96 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 4.12 SIERA)

5. Santana (4.17 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA)

6. Nolasco (3.51 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 4.10 SIERA, injury concerns, small sample from last year, if not 100% healthy, move him to 8).

7. Hughes (4.70 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 4.39 SIERA, have to consider 2014 performance/upside to put ahead of Milone, but if not 100% healthy, I'd switch with Milone)

8. Milone (4.30 FIP, 4.22xFIP, 4.39 SIERA)

 

The crazy thing is how much Nolasco has underperformed his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, not just last year, but the last two years. If he's healthy, give him a shot to start. That is not how I went into this exercise, but after looking at the numbers, I think it is worth trying (IF he is 100% healthy).

 

The last four are all pretty close. Depending on the health of Hughes and Nolasco, I could see any of the four being the fifth starter. While I would absolutely have the first four in the rotation (well, I'd wait until May or June for Berrios b/c of service time), I think, b/c the last four are otherwise pretty close, Hughes and Santana might actually do better in the bullpen, where their fastballs could possibly play up. Milone might end up being the fifth starter then, especially if Nolasoco is hurt. I just don't think Milone should be the fifth starter as a replacement for May.

 

[Brandon]

1.  Hughes

2.  Santana

3.  Gibson

4.  May

5.  Nolasco/ Millone

 

I think this would be the best because it gives us the most available depth in case of emergency thus keeping the rotation a constant average.

 

In regards to Nolasco he did pitch solid last year in between injuries and he is pitching for his career at this point if he plans on signing another contract he needs to rebound vs I doubt anyone would claim him if we took him off the 40 man and assigned him to AAA. 

 

Also since we already have the costs on the books it may as well go towards keeping the other pitchers costs down a little longer. 

 

I prefer May in the rotation to give him the opportunity over duffey out the gate.  (I would like to see the Twins sign someone like Stammen to make this a more realistic possibility)

[amjgt]

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

Duffey

Milone

 

With Berrios ready to jump from AAA because of injury or performance issues

[Halsey Hall]

Santana

Duffey

Gibson

Milone

Hughes

 

That's with no spring training injuries or PED violations.  If one goes down, Nolasco steps in, if two go down May steps in.

 

Berrios joins in May. 

[drjim]

 

Hughes
Santana
Gibson
Duffey
Milone

With Berrios ready to jump from AAA because of injury or performance issues

 

This is my list too, though the top three might be in a slightly different order.

 

I think in general people are way too optimistic about the ability of young pitchers to make it through a full season in the rotation. I'm very high on Berrios, but he still needs to limit his innings. And I want to see Duffey do it for 3 months before I'm fully convinced. I have no problem keeping Nolasco around as long man and ready to move in for one more try.

 

I would also be supportive of trying to move Milone for a reliever and signing one of the guys out there available on a 2 year deal.

[DocBauer]

All healthy, no moving someone to the bullpen, just the best starting 5 to open the year?

 

Hughes

Santana

Gibson

May

Duffey

 

Berrios at some point.

[ashbury]

Gibson

Duffey

Hughes

Santana

Milone

 

This was approximately the rotation used in September when they were trying for a playoff slot. Nothing has changed since September.

 

[Thrylos]

What they will do:

Santana

Hughes

Gibson
Nolasco

Milone

 

What they should do:

 

Meyer

May

Gibson

Berrios

Duffey/Rogers

 

(I like Hughes as their closer)

[Twodogs]

1. Hughes

2. Gibson

3. Santana

4. Nolasco

5. Milone

 

May and Duffy ready to step in and take over when injury happens, but those two will stay put once they move in.  If the Twins move them into the rotation then keep them there, don't yank them back out.  First injury out of the gate may be Santana, we will see if the PED's have been holding his arm together for the last few years, then it may be Hughes if he hasn't recovered from what appeared to be some sort of dead arm last year.  I have a feeling that Nolasco will be healthy this year.

 

Berrios starts in the minors

[jorgenswest]

The Twins strength is that they have 8 guys are better than replacement. None of them (other than maybe Berrios) projects to be a major league average starter though.

 

They will likely have seven guys who start at least 10 games next year. Their depth will be an asset. If they decide to trade away that asset, they need to get a real asset in return. There is no reason to move a guy for the purpose of clearing space.

 

There is nothing in the long term data that separates these pitchers. Let them battle it out in the spring. Spring numbers won't mean anything but the skilled eyes of the coaching staff has to be able to discern the best 5.

[Twodogs]

 

The Twins strength is that they have 8 guys are better than replacement. None of them (other than maybe Berrios) projects to be a major league average starter though.

They will likely have seven guys who start at least 10 games next year. Their depth will be an asset. If they decide to trade away that asset, they need to get a real asset in return. There is no reason to move a guy for the purpose of clearing space.

There is nothing in the long term data that separates these pitchers. Let them battle it out in the spring. Spring numbers won't mean anything but the skilled eyes of the coaching staff has to be able to discern the best 5.

Replacement means average, so then don't all of them project to at least be average??  Unless you meant that Berrios projects to be above average and all of the rest are just average.  Maybe I miss read. 

 

I think you are right though that the Twins strength is that if someone gets hurt they shouldn't be struggling to find another pitcher, they already have one to take over and that is important in a long season.

[jorgenswest]

Replacement means average, so then don't all of them project to at least be average??  Unless you meant that Berrios projects to be above average and all of the rest are just average.  Maybe I miss read. 

 

I think you are right though that the Twins strength is that if someone gets hurt they shouldn't be struggling to find another pitcher, they already have one to take over and that is important in a long season.

A replacement level player is one who requires no marginal resources to acquire. A replacement level performace last year would be that of Despaigne from the Padres. He had 0 WAR with a FIP of 4.77 and ERA of 5.80 in 125 innings. All Twin pitchers project significantly better than replacement. They will not need to turn to a replacement level pitcher with their depth.

[Twodogs]

got it.  I personally don't really think they can get much for any of their pitchers which is probably why they should just keep them.  They will all perform adequately, not great, but good enough to throw 6 innings per start usually.

 

[Shaitan]

Between hot/cold streaks and injuries this is a good problem to have, provided they can keep 1-2 swingmen ready to go 5 innings when needed.

[Jham]

1 Santana

2 Gibson if his k's keep improving. ..

 

3 Hughes (Saw him outduel kuechel lady year after injury. He really liked like he learned to pitch)

 

4 Duffey Too good last year not to be in there with a good spring.

 

5 Millone

 

May looked like a duck taking to water in the pen. No one seems to dispute he's better suited for relief, just that he may be more valuable as a starter. If he can continue to be dominant, I'd find room for him. Nolasco probably won't be healthy, but if he is and pitches well, we'll simply point out that Pelfrey went to the pen, then had a great year as a starter. Berrios needs to be in AAA because of service time and the likelihood that he won't be an immediate upgrade in April.

[Kwak]

September's rotation is likely their best.  Santana,  Duffey, Hughes, Gibson, and Milone.  Most likely, Nolasco is slated for 2-3 starts instead of one of the above  five for the purpose of rangefinding.

[Oxtung]

Santana

May

Berrios

Duffey

Gibson

Milone

Hughes

Nolasco

 

That's my preference top to bottom but with quite a few caveats. First, how does Duffey's curve look in spring training? If it's as good as last year he starts in the rotation if not he goes to the bullpen where I think he could be dominant. Is Gibson looking like the 4 or the 8 K/9 pitcher from last season. The former and he shouldn't be near the rotation; the later and he could be in for a nice season. I'm assuming much of Santana's struggles were due to playing catch up after the suspension. Berrios is our only chance for a top of the rotation starter. As such he needs a chance to show what he can do. If it doesn't work out you can always send him down to AAA at some point. With Nolasco, Hughes and Milone you're getting a number 3-5 pitcher and that is fine but they won't put you over the top either. Let them fill out the rotation as dictated by the players with more potential.