Somebody have an answer?

[stringer bell]

Here are the lines of four starting pitchers who have split time between Rochester and Minnesota:

 

Diamond Roch-- 34.2 IP 1.21 WHIP 7 BB 26 K 2.60 ERA

Minn-- 79.0 IP 1.18 WHIP 12 BB 45 K 2.62 ERA

 

Hendriks Roch-- 60.1 IP .85 WHIP 14 BB 48 K 1.79 ERA

Minn-- 38.1 IP 1.75 WHIP 10 BB 23 K 7.04 ERA

 

De Vries Roch-- 70.0 IP 1.21 WHIP 10 BB 50 K 4.37 ERA

Minn-- 30.0 IP 1.10 WHIP 8 BB 21 K 3.00 ERA

 

Walters Roch-- 42.1 IP 1.20 WHIP 8 BB 29 K 2.76 ERA

Minn-- 36.2 IP 1.53 WHIP 14 BB 23 K 5.40 ERA

 

Diamond has basically done just as well with the Twins as with the Red Wings. De Vries has done better with the Twins. Walters has better numbers with the Red Wings, and the difference for Hendriks is dramatic. He looks like a world beater at AAA and has been terrible as a major leaguer.

 

All four guys throw not much better than an average velocity fastball, have limited free passes and feature a mix without an outstanding pitch.

 

Why has AAA success carried over for Diamond, but not Hendriks? How has De Vries managed to put together a few good starts with the Twins?

 

I do realize the sample sizes are pretty small. Hendriks Rochester numbers and Diamond's Twins' numbers are fairly substantial. Walters' Twin numbers were skewed by a zero out multi-run outing in which he left with a disabling injury.

[Roaddog]

Thi sounds like cliche, but Diamond seems to have a knack for throwing the right pitch at the right time. He used his time in the minors to correct his flaws. Hendriks has yet to do that. Just what i see.

[Badsmerf]

Hendriks will be fine. They just need to leave him with the Twins and let him face teams like the A's.... He's faced BOS, LAA, DET, TB, TEX, MIL, PIT and CHW. Pretty tough teams to face as a young pitcher. I'm completely against the way the Twins have handled him this year. Unless there is something more to the story, I can see him getting frustrated about what he has to do in order to get a legit shot.

[Top Gun]

Hendriks can't pitch stats prove that.

[greengoblinrulz]

sometimes havin a major league defense behind ya makes a difference. Innings dont keep alive with '2 out hits' like they do in AAA (now last yr was different story)

[old nurse]

The statistic that is hard to find would be how well they keep hitters guessing. How deceptive is their delivery? Also how well are they at location. That is my opinion from when I listen to people talk. Blackburn was going high with to many pitches. Diamond keeps them low. The occasional high one actually works to fool a hitter.

[gunnarthor]

Diamond, De Vries and Walters have more experience than Hendriks in the upper levels (AA, AAA and MLB). Hendriks just needs reps, he'll be fine in the long run.

[Seth Stohs]

Diamond, De Vries and Walters have more experience than Hendriks in the upper levels (AA, AAA and MLB). Hendriks just needs reps, he'll be fine in the long run.

This. I just think that Hendriks needs some time. In fact, the successes shown by Walters and De Vries illustrates a couple of things:

 

1.) There is a fine line between AAA, AAAA and back of the rotation starter.

2.) Hendriks has, by far, the best stuff of those three, so he will be just fine once he figured "something" out.

2a.) He just needs to figure out what that "something" is.

 

I do think that Diamond can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation type. He's a level above the Walters and De Vries. Scott Baker had to go up and down several times as well his first year-plus, so he'll be fine.

[stringer bell]

Diamond, De Vries and Walters have more experience than Hendriks in the upper levels (AA, AAA and MLB). Hendriks just needs reps, he'll be fine in the long run.

According to what I can find, Hendriks has the lowest ERA and WHIP of any pitcher in the IL with more than 60 innings. His ERA in the American League is exceeded by only Blackburn and Marquis of those with over 30 innings. So basically, he is the best starter in the IL and the worst in the American League.

 

BTW, that is a sweet 130+ innings contributed by Blackburn, Marquis and Hendriks. 135.2 IP 197 H 46 BB 65 K and a WHIP of over 1.8

[Tuba]

Don't forget the human element. Some people thrive on the big stage, others are intimidated by it. I dunno if this is the case for those two, but stats alone can't tell the whole story.

[spideyo]

Hendricks is also the youngest of the bunch by a couple years, and he's only been in this country for what, 3 or 4 years? Yes, Australia is an English speaking country, but that doesn't mean there aren't cultural differences he's had to adjust to.

[jorgenswest]

The answer is simple. The sample size is too small and insignificant for study. The differences are meaningless.

 

With some more data you could look at K/PA and BB/PA, but the other numbers are not close to stable with so little data.

[notoriousgod71]

The answer is simple. The sample size is too small and insignificant for study. The differences are meaningless.

 

With some more data you could look at K/PA and BB/PA, but the other numbers are not close to stable with so little data.

This.

 

I don't think any of the four are MLB caliber starters, although Diamond has been making a habit of proving me wrong this season.

[Badsmerf]

You don't think Hendriks is an MLB caliber starter?

[Thrylos]

This. I just think that Hendriks needs some time. In fact, the successes shown by Walters and De Vries illustrates a couple of things:

 

1.) There is a fine line between AAA, AAAA and back of the rotation starter.

2.) Hendriks has, by far, the best stuff of those three, so he will be just fine once he figured "something" out.

2a.) He just needs to figure out what that "something" is.

 

I do think that Diamond can be a solid middle-of-the-rotation type. He's a level above the Walters and De Vries. Scott Baker had to go up and down several times as well his first year-plus, so he'll be fine.

Agree 100% and the difference between Diamond 2012 from Diamond 2011 supports that argument. Diamond 2011 was not ready. Hendriks 2012 is not. He is in a good place with a good pitching coach. He will do fine.

[stringer bell]

Agree 100% and the difference between Diamond 2012 from Diamond 2011 supports that argument. Diamond 2011 was not ready. Hendriks 2012 is not. He is in a good place with a good pitching coach. He will do fine.

Diamond wasn't very good in the majors in '11, but he wasn't very good at Rochester, either. Hendriks has great numbers at Rochester, while not giving the Twins a chance in almost all of his starts in Minny. Perhaps next month Liam will get his third chance this year (after a Liriano trade?). Maybe he will take advantage of the opportunity as Diamond has.

[nicksaviking]

Hendriks has the ability to strikeout guys in the minors but at the MLB level his stuff won't translate to the same strikeout success. The other pitchers have always known they were not strikeout pitchers and have already adapted their approace and pitched accordingly at both the minor leagues and major league levels.

 

I suspect the Twins believe that Anthony Slama also has this issue which is why they are always so hesitant to call on him when healthy.

[Badsmerf]

Hendriks has the ability to strikeout guys in the minors but at the MLB level his stuff won't translate to the same strikeout success. The other pitchers have always known they were not strikeout pitchers and have already adapted their approace and pitched accordingly at both the minor leagues and major league levels.

 

I suspect the Twins believe that Anthony Slama also has this issue which is why they are always so hesitant to call on him when healthy.

False. Hendriks has pitched against 8 teams, 7 of which are playoff contenders and the other is MIL who has a great offense. This is not an accurate picture of the kind of pitcher he is. He will get strikeouts. Strikeout rates and minor league success will translate to each level above, it is just usually a little less. There is some kind of ratio that has the projected values based on minor league success. Not the rule, but a good estimate. Slama has had a grand total of 7 IP with the Twins, talk about jumping to conclusions? You did get it right comparing the two though. They both haven't had enough continued playing time to evaluate.

[beckmt]

Maybe the answer is the pitching coach. Is it time to fire Rick Anderson and promote Bobby Cueller?

[nicksaviking]

False. Hendriks has pitched against 8 teams, 7 of which are playoff contenders and the other is MIL who has a great offense. This is not an accurate picture of the kind of pitcher he is. He will get strikeouts. Strikeout rates and minor league success will translate to each level above, it is just usually a little less. There is some kind of ratio that has the projected values based on minor league success. Not the rule, but a good estimate. Slama has had a grand total of 7 IP with the Twins, talk about jumping to conclusions? You did get it right comparing the two though. They both haven't had enough continued playing time to evaluate.

I've never heard anyone speculate that Hendriks will be a strikeout pitcher in the majors, like most Twins pitchers, his control is his biggest asset. Perhaps I could have elaborated more on Slama, but I suspect the club does not believe he will be able to strike MLBer's out with his 92 MPH fastball like he does in the minors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I've never heard anyone speculate that Hendriks will be a strikeout pitcher in the majors, like most Twins pitchers, his control is his biggest asset. Perhaps I could have elaborated more on Slama, but I suspect the club does not believe he will be able to strike MLBer's out with his 92 MPH fastball like he does in the minors.

I don't think anyone here is claiming he will be a strikeout pitcher, are they? I've seen more "he won't be Nick Blackburn" than "he's the next Johan". If Hendriks works out, I see him being a poor man's Scott Baker, whatever that means. A notch or two below Baker in the K department... Not unlike Brad Radke, I suppose (though I cringe every time a Twins fan uses a Radke comp).

[notoriousgod71]

You don't think Hendriks is an MLB caliber starter?

Not in the sense that he's a guy I would want to run out there. I'm sure he'll get his fair amount of starts but we've done the same for dozens of non-major league caliber starters.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hendricks strikes me as a #3 type guy when he figures things out. He'll get enough Ks to have a fairly effective career, so long as he keeps the walk rate down. That isn't a bad pitcher to have in the rotation. But it most definitely shouldn't be the prize.

[chopper0080]

I start to wonder if he is tipping his pitches somehow which is the reason the players in the majors tee off on him and those in the minors do not.

 

Other than that, it is probably just inexperience.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Not in the sense that he's a guy I would want to run out there. I'm sure he'll get his fair amount of starts but we've done the same for dozens of non-major league caliber starters.

You're really underselling the kid. He's still only 22/23 and has dominated every level of the minors. He's more than rotation fluff.

[Falcon25]

Hendriks can't pitch stats prove that.

What stats are you looking at? I suppose no one commented on your post because of the total lack of substance or was it a sarcastic comment expressed incorrectly or maybe you just can't interpret stats!

[Mike Sixel]

I see Hendriks as a 4/5 long term. Good enough to let his team win around half of his starts, give or take depending on the year. Those guys have value. Better than Blackburn, not as good as Baker/Radke.

[DaveW]

Mike Trout can't hit, the stats prove this

/Angels Fan 2011

[Brock Beauchamp]

I see Hendriks as a 4/5 long term. Good enough to let his team win around half of his starts, give or take depending on the year. Those guys have value. Better than Blackburn, not as good as Baker/Radke.

Hendriks is 23 years old, has a 2.64 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, and 8.1 K/9 history in the minors.

 

That's not a #5 pitcher. I'd hesitate to call him even a #4 and I've never been a Hendriks fan. While he may settle in as a #4, he could easily be a #3 pitcher in the bigs.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed, he could, but #3 pitchers (year after year) are pretty rare, really. It is possible, but not likely, that any pitcher becomes that in the majors, let alone a guy that wasn't in any top 100 list at the beginning of the year.....(I think that is right). To me, that ranking is about probability, not upside.