Article: The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In KLAW's insider piece today, he says there is no true FA third baseman even available. None. Nada. Nil. I'd think that scarcity of resources is good for Plouffe's value....

Huh?  Freese isn't a "true" third baseman?  Positive UZR I'd be wary of that strict of a qualifier.  Positive UZR his last 2 seasons and 4 of his last 5, basically average DRS for 3 of his last 5 seasons too.

 

Juan Uribe is a older, but he has a 114 OPS+ and average or better third base defense the past three years too.

 

It's a thin market, for sure, but when the Brewers, Braves, Padres, and White Sox rank among the top teams with 3B needs, it doesn't necessarily mean the 3B available are going to see massive spikes in value (as evidenced by the Freese non-tender).

[markos]

 

In KLAW's insider piece today, he says there is no true FA third baseman even available. None. Nada. Nil. I'd think that scarcity of resources is good for Plouffe's value....

The demand side is the problem. Third-base is absolutely stacked right now, and 14 teams were able to get 3+ WAR production, and an additional 7 teams got 2+ WAR. So for the majority of teams, Plouffe represents basically a lateral move at best. For example, does it really make sense for the Padres to upgrade from a 2 WAR Solarte who is making peanuts to a 2.5 WAR Plouffe? And though Plouffe is cost-controlled, he isn't necessarily cheap - he will probably make ~$20M over the next two seasons in arbitration. 

 

It is unfortunate that right now the teams with 3B needs are either rebuilding, have a young or expensive incumbent, or are in the division. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

When Terry Ryan says Plouffe is a solid middle of the order bat, I think he means Brian Dozier. As someone said above, if Plouffe was a #7 hitter, he'd be good. There's no reason to go into 2016 with Plouffe hitting behind Sano when Rosario and Dozier are more capable of hitting behind Sano.

[gunnarthor]

 

Interesting -- do you have the link?  The Astros have Jed Lowrie under contract for 2 more seasons plus a third option year, all at very reasonable salaries (perhaps less than Plouffe's remaining arbitration awards).  Plus they have Luis Valbuena under control for another season, and the last 3 years he's been a 106 OPS+ bat with average defense at third base.  Not to mention a couple solid looking utility options in Gonzalez and Villar.  Plus two upper-minors 3B in their top ~10 prospects by Sickels.

 

Add in one of the best young starting 2B and SS combos in the league, I really can't see them seeking more MLB infielders unless it was a Donaldson-type opportunity.

 

By Sickels, Feliz was their #3 preseason prospect for 2015, quite possibly #1 by now, grade B+/B.

I know it's come up a couple times but here's the last place I saw it in the comment section - http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/3/9662808/identifying-interesting-offseason-targets-for-the-astros#comments

 

 

[gunnarthor]

OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

Red Sox -2.5 WAR

DBacks 0.5 WAR

Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

Angels 1.8 WAR

Astros 2.5 WAR

Nationals 3.0 WAR

 

Twins were listed at 3.6.  

 

[Loosey]

 

Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

 

I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is unfortunate that right now the teams with 3B needs are either rebuilding, have a young or expensive incumbent, or are in the division. 

Great point.  Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015

 

Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th.

 

Teams below 17th:

 

WSN
LAA
PHI
ATL
ARI
SDP
NYM
NYY
DET
CLE
CHW
MIL
BOS

 

Just not a lot of good matches in this group.  I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).

[nater79a]

For some reason I see Joe Crede of the White Sox (his healthy years) as a decent comparison to Trevor Plouffe.  Similar stats. So, I'm not sure is that's good or bad. 

[TNTwinsFan]

Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

 

I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

[markos]

 

OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

Red Sox -2.5 WAR

DBacks 0.5 WAR

Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

Angels 1.8 WAR

Astros 2.5 WAR

Nationals 3.0 WAR

 

Twins were listed at 3.6.  

The main 3B filter on Fangraphs combines the total stats for everyone who played at 3B. So in the Twins' case, the 3.6 WAR is spread over the 830+ PAs that Plouffe and Nunez had last year, even though most of Nunez's PAs were at SS. If you use the 3B Split instead, it tallies the stats for the players only when playing 3B. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=39&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

 

[dougkoebernick]

 

Hey, WE are overrating Plouffe, not the Twins, and certainly not the rest of the league.   WE are the ones who think Plouffe can bring a decent return.  

 

 

Exactly. I haven't heard anyone from the Twins say that he has X value.

[dougkoebernick]

Plouffe to Right Field

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK, so I now think Plouffe gets moved.  Going by team fWAR for third base (not a great stat), the teams below us at 3B last year that might be considered contenders (ie guys who might want Plouffe for two years) are:

Red Sox -2.5 WAR

DBacks 0.5 WAR

Yankees, Padres, Cleveland at 1.2 WAR

Angels 1.8 WAR

Astros 2.5 WAR

Nationals 3.0 WAR

 

Twins were listed at 3.6.  

Careful, that fWAR list is actually the total stats of the players that qualify as 3B for that team, not just the stats of each team's starting 3B.  Notice the Twins have 842 PA, and the Red Sox only 563, the Diamondbacks 1228.  See my B-Ref link above for a more accurate look.

 

Still, with your list, while in theory these teams could benefit from Plouffe, few of them are likely to seek him.

 

Red Sox -- Sandoval under contract, Holt and Shaw as potential internal replacements
DBacks -- Jake Lamb had better WAR/PA than Plouffe (all of their negative 3B WAR comes from Yasmany Tomas)
Yankees -- Headley doesn't profile much different than Plouffe

Padres -- given the position full-time, Solarte might not be much different than Plouffe

Cleveland -- did pick up Chris Johnson late in the season, also Urshella was their #7 preseason prospect

Angels -- declined QO for Freese who isn't much different than Plouffe
Astros -- Valbuena/Lowrie produced close to Plouffe
Nationals -- Escobar produced close to Plouffe

 

Your best bet is probably Cleveland, who is in our division -- they'll probably prefer to sign Freese or Uribe or deal for a Valbuena/Lowrie type before they give us good value for Plouffe.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The main 3B filter on Fangraphs combines the total stats for everyone who played at 3B. So in the Twins' case, the 3.6 WAR is spread over the 830+ PAs that Plouffe and Nunez had last year, even though most of Nunez's PAs were at SS. If you use the 3B Split instead, it tallies the stats for the players only when playing 3B. 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2015&month=39&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Thanks, I figured there was a way to do that at Fangraphs!

[Willihammer]

Interesting thread. I still see no rush to move Plouffe. All it would take is another 60 day DL stint by one Joe Mauer and we'd be short a bat. Having said that, if Park pans out then that would lessen the blow.

Edited November 9, 2015 by Willihammer

[gunnarthor]

The Twins could certainly start the season with a lineup that looks something like this - 

 

CF Hicks

2B Dozier

1B Mauer

RF Sano

DH Park
3B Plouffe

LF Rosario

C Suzuki

SS Escobar

 

And make moves in season just as well.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I know it's come up a couple times but here's the last place I saw it in the comment section - http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/3/9662808/identifying-interesting-offseason-targets-for-the-astros#comments

I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here.  

 

Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe

 

Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.

Edited November 9, 2015 by spycake

[Loosey]

 

Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

I would prefer Arcia as well, however, I don't think any team will trade for him knowing the Twins current situation at OF and DH.  He has to make the 25 man roster otherwise he is out of options and will be on waivers.  So unless they really really want him they can wait to see if he even makes the Twins roster which could be a stretch at this point given the current log jam at his spots.

[gunnarthor]

 

I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here.  

 

Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion:

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe

 

Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.

I saw it on at least one other Astros blog but I have no idea which one, sorry.  

 

I do think Plouffe is an upgrade for them (over the last two years, Plouffe has amassed more WAR than Lowrie and Valbuena combined) and they also have a problem at first base although they should probably give Singleton another shot.  

[Tom Froemming]

I really like Bethancourt as a potential long-term solution at catcher. I know Atlanta is down on his handling of the staff and game calling, but those are Kurt Suzuki's strengths, so pairing them together for 2016 could result in some further development in those areas.

 

In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%).

[James Richter]

 

Well, with the Park posting Vargas may have become suddenly available as the Left Handed Bat, + Plouffe and Nolasco.  Maybe Polanco as well?  There are 3 of their needs right there for Shields, Kimbrel and Norris?  I would say unlikely but on the track to getting there.

 

I also wonder how active San Diego will be in the trade market this year after last years cupboard emptying resulting not very good results.

I think they'll be active if it can help them open some payroll flexibility.

 

I like the package you're building here. They might prefer a lefty bat who could man their spacious CF, though - Rosario? He'd get a ton of triples there. As for the lefty starter, either Milone or Rogers should be on the table. Maybe throw in one of the upside bullpen guys, too. A 5 or 6 for 3 trade built around cost-controlled, MLB-ready players could net the Twins Shields, Norris, and Benoit (if not Kimbrel).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I saw it on at least one other Astros blog but I have no idea which one, sorry.  

 

I do think Plouffe is an upgrade for them (over the last two years, Plouffe has amassed more WAR than Lowrie and Valbuena combined) and they also have a problem at first base although they should probably give Singleton another shot.  

Note that you also commented on that same poster's suggestion back in June, in case that is what you were thinking of.

 

Plouffe does't beat them by raw fWAR -- Lowrie and Valbuena combined for 7, versus Plouffe's 6.1.  Plouffe does beat them in bWAR, although Lowrie logged most of his innings at short and DRS didn't care for his defense there.

 

Of course, Plouffe has a WAR per PA advantage, but it's slight (roughly half a win over a full season) and almost all due to defense, further muddied by some positional differences (Valbuena and Lowrie haven't had anywhere near Plouffe's ample opportunity to become a competent defensive third baseman).  Valbuena actually has more Rbat than Plouffe, in fewer PA the last two seasons.

 

As you say, they have issues at first, probably in the outfield and catcher too, and most teams have some kind of issues on their pitching staff.  I would be shocked if a speculative half-win defensive upgrade at third base would be any kind of priority for them.  Which is probably why I can't find any such suggestion anywhere, except by one commenter at one site.

[gunnarthor]

I'm also not syaing that there's any real interest in Plouffe from the Astros (or even if there's real interest in trading him from MN).  But it's something I saw from an Astros team themed website.  Would a trade make sense?  I have no idea.  But it's out there and not created by Twins-fans so I thought I'd throw it out there.  

 

I'm sure the other place I saw it was a different Astros blog, not their SBNation site (although it came up there a couple times, as well).  

[by jiminy]

 

Article from the San Diego Union regarding what San Diego is looking for and who might be on the trading block in order for them to accomplish it, including Shields, Kimbrel. Benoit, and Norris.  Any deal the Twins would make that included Shields would have to include Nolasco so it ends up a net 3 year 40 million investment but a blockbuster that included Shields, Kimbrel and Norris would get me excited for next year.  San Diego is looking for left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, a shortstop, and a third baseman.

 

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/nov/07/padres-hot-stove-offseason-preview/

 

Thanks for the link!

 

I'm not usually into speculating about trades, because they almost never happen as envisioned, but I am completely buying that San Diego is an intriguing match. They stretched their payroll to stock up on veterans and bombed. It's hard to imagine they wouldn't love the chance to shed some of that salary. And an ace pitcher, a catcher, a reliever are exactly what the Twins need.

 

The fact that they are overpaid works in our favor here. The Twins have been sitting on a cash cow for years, stockpiling cash from their subsidized stadium. They are now good enough where it makes sense to spend some money. The playoffs are in reach. Shields, Norris, and Kimbrel or Benoit could be difference makers. And the Twins have more prospects than they have room on the field for. A motivated trading partner, eager to shed salary at the very positions we're welling to spend to improve, might be just the ticket. Their GM is if nothing else a bold trader (that's how they got into this mess). Why not?

 

The post above says they need a shortstop. Maybe Polanco? Or sell high on Escobar?

 

They could use a third baseman, and the Twins are itching to move Plouffe to open a slot for Sano.

 

The Twins have a ton of young outfielders. I'd start with Rosario. On the one hand, he's a proven performer, not just a prospect. On the other hand, his plate discipline and walk rate are low, so we may be seeing his ceiling. I like him, but I'm more intrigued by Kepler and Buxton.

 

If they are excited about Arcia or Vargas, those guys are going to have a hard time finding playing time, especially now that they have park. Clear the logjam.

 

I know that won't do it, and we'll have to part with some people it hurts to lose, too. But you don't have to give as much talent if you're also offering salary relief. Kimbrel and Shields may be worth their salaries, barely, but the odds are they're not. So we're not talking a huge dip into our talent pool unless they pick up some salary.

 

I would hope the Twins would pay all the salary and keep the best prospects. They can afford it. That stadium cost them almost nothing, once you add up that they are paying their small portion of the stadium costs from the naming rights -- meaning they are paying almost nothing at all!  (Why did we give them naming rights???)  But the deal was, we give you a ton of money, and you give us a good team. So do it.  And build it with money, not by mortgaging the future and trading away young talent for old.  We've waited long enough.  Shell out the money, take their overpriced stars off their hands, and win now!

[Shane Wahl]

A real question is how much Plouffe, Polanco, Vargas, and Stewart could bring back in a trade. Trading Plouffe straight up is going to be worth a good MR type.

[Rosterman]

Gleeman writes some interesting words on Plouffe. 

 

My own thoughts, again: the Twins are at a diosadvantage if it seems they HAVE to trade Plouffe. You can keep his bat in the lineup, but do you play him or Sano in the outfield. Where does that put Hicks eventually (fourth outfielder?). Or Hicks is tradebait. Of course, are we sure Rosario is the outfielder we want out there for the next 3-5 years? We also have Kepler and probably Walker coming up, and Arcia needing sometime to see if you can increase his trade value (or cause a decision to be made to keep him fulltime). Is Plouffe expensive at $8 milliuon in 2016 and potentially $11 million in 2017? Would you sign him for three years and $30 million (with an option) and would that make him more or less tradable? Come 2018, he might be a bargain at $10 million a year. But do you see him becoming a regualr fixture in any outfield once his days at third disappear (shades of Michael Cuddyer).

 

If the Twins sign the Korean guy, they suddenly have players that have no room on the ark. Arcia, Vargas and perhaps Plouffe. They also would have to make decisions on Kepler and Walker...better to trade or keep. Throw Hicks in the mix. Six guys, in which half of them DON'T need to be around next season (assuming you sign the first base guy). And we are still stuck with Mauer, who can't catch...sigh!

 

[jsteve96]

Maybe Arcia instead? I'd rather keep a switch hitting masher as a bench bat/DH/1B type over Arcia and his inability to play in the OF when we have about 4 quality OFs either on the roster or knocking on the door.

Not a chance I keep Vargas a 1B/DH over Arcia OF/DH. Arcia is a year younger and has already had a 20 homer season.

[jsteve96]

The Twins are gonna have major problems this offseason...

position players that are for sure gonna be on 25: Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Sano, Park, Suzuki, Rosario, Hicks, Plouffe... Bench Back up catcher then 3 question marks.. Will need 1IF 1OF and 1 bench bat Choosing 3 of these names: Santana, Nunez, Arcia, Vargas, Pinto.. I'd probably Take Nunez, Arcia and Vargas to start the year but maybe would go Santana over Vargas to be IF/OF help with speed.... This Spring training is gonna be HUGE for Those 5.

[d-mac]

I would prefer they deal Plouffe for a quality catcher this offseason. If they need to throw in a prospect like Polanco to get it done, so be it. But I will not be happy if Plouffe is traded for bullpen parts or another #3 starter. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Interesting thread. I still see no rush to move Plouffe. All it would take is another 60 day DL stint by one Joe Mauer and we'd be short a bat. Having said that, if Park pans out then that would lessen the blow.

 

The rush is that he's gone after next year.  His ideal value is right now, any decision after this offseason and you're slashing his value.