Ian Desmond

[Thrylos]

 

Pretty quiet on the Ian Desmond front. I know people love to love Escobar, but Desmond has a much better track record than Escobar. Maybe with the down year the Twins could get Desmond for 4/60? He put up 3.5 WAR per year 2012-2014, whereas Escobar has put up 2WAR once. I'm also concerned that Escobar will hit below 250 this year. Thoughts? Obviously a longshot. But the Twins aren't majorly improving at catcher...so improving another up-the-middle spot would be nice.

 

 

Cannot compare WAR of a starter who is on his prime with that of a part-time player who is just about to enter his prime.

 

Also, part of the reason that Escobar's WAR is low is that he played about half of his games at LF where both his bat and glove are way below the LF average.  Give Escobar the same innings at SS as Desmond, and I bet his WAR will be higher than Desmond's.

[Loosey]

 

If I was the GM

 

I'd sign him to play 3B and give him occasional starts at SS and 2B 

 

Then I'd trade Plouffe. 

 

If I didn't get Desmond... Oh Well. 

 

It would give the lineup more flexibility. Sano could get some starts at 3B when Desmond moves to 2B for example and then Dozier could get a game off every once in awhile. Arcia in the lineup etc. etc. 

 

As for the Lions share of SS Starts. I'm going with Escobar.

 

Desmond's hands turn into bricks on occasion. 

I didn't mean to write exactly what you wrote.  I just saw your comments after I typed essentially the same thing. . . . Great Minds. . . .

[James]

 

Cannot compare WAR of a starter who is on his prime with that of a part-time player who is just about to enter his prime.

 

Also, part of the reason that Escobar's WAR is low is that he played about half of his games at LF where both his bat and glove are way below the LF average.  Give Escobar the same innings at SS as Desmond, and I bet his WAR will be higher than Desmond's.

Thrylos, there you go, confusing the conversation with silly things like facts!  You should be ashamed!

 

I think it is pretty telling that Desmond hasn't signed yet and is being marketed as some sort of super utility player.  It would be nice to add him as a depth piece, but I don't think he'd be willing to sign in that capacity.  I'd rather just role with EE at SS.  Escobar is not going to be an all-star, but he's proved that he can handle the position and that he is more than solid when given regular at bats.  I'm hoping the Twins just stick to what they have with him for the season.    

[twinsnorth49]

 

At shortstop, his defensive runs saved in 2014 was -6 and 2 in 2015.  2.1 UZR in 2014  and 2.6 UZR in 2015.  

 

Overall, he had 1.5 WAR in 2015.  Almost a full run lower than 2014.  He's averaged a hair under 2 WAR in the last two years. 1-2 WAR is considered a role player.  He is not clearly a starting type player.  He is borderline starting player.  

 

Ian Desmond had an off year in 2015 for sure (or at least erratic), but was worth over 4 WAR in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

 

There is no reason we shouldn't look at all avenues to improve, even at shortstop.

Where did I say we shouldn't?

[Riverbrian]

 

I didn't mean to write exactly what you wrote.  I just saw your comments after I typed essentially the same thing. . . . Great Minds. . . .

 

I agree and i'm sure you agree with my agreement. 

 

Flexibility baby... The 2016 Twins have a chance of producing a roster of 25 guys who can all play and play well. 

 

I say go for it... A roster with no AAAA types would be fantastic. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Todd Frazier was both offensively and defensively a better player than Plouffe.  I think if the Twins got this return for Plouffe people on TD would be disappointed.  Don't expect to trade Plouffe for an above average starting pitcher or a future above average catcher.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/reds-sell-todd-frazier-for-low-upside-in-three-way-deal/

 

Frazier would look great on any roster. I'm a fan of his. 

 

But... looking at the current Twins context... The Guy I would pluck from the White Sox Roster is Brett Lawrie. 

 

He'd be perfect for the Twins. 

 

If Plouffe is playing 3B over Sano for defensive reasons and I assume that he is.

 

Let's get one of the 3 elite defensive 3B's and one of the 3 is Brett Lawrie. (Arenado and Machado are the other two). 

 

Lawrie also plays a nice 2B so he can slide over and give Dozier a breather on occasion and Sano can move to 3B from the OF on occasion. 

 

This will link Dozier into our Corner position logjam and Molitor will have options across the diamond. Molitor will be able to mix and match... play the hot bats... We will have decent options for any injury. 

 

Yeah... I would have made a trade for Lawrie as soon as Oakland put him on the block. He'd fit the Twins perfectly. 

 

It's not gonna happen... So Desmond in my mind becomes a possibility for that role. Of course Molitor will have to take on some Maddon characteristics to make it work.

 

I also doubt that Desmond will happen so

 

Go get me a CF to hold the spot until we are sure Buxton is ready.  

 

I would only trade Plouffe if a 3B/2B or SS type can be acquired. Then Plouffe can be moved for a bullpen piece maybe? Not a prospect... a living breathing bullpen piece that improves the bullpen. 

[jorgenswest]

At shortstop, his defensive runs saved in 2014 was -6 and 2 in 2015.  2.1 UZR in 2014  and 2.6 UZR in 2015.  

 

Overall, he had 1.5 WAR in 2015.  Almost a full run lower than 2014.  He's averaged a hair under 2 WAR in the last two years. 1-2 WAR is considered a role player.  He is not clearly a starting type player.  He is borderline starting player.  

 

Ian Desmond had an off year in 2015 for sure (or at least erratic), but was worth over 4 WAR in 2012, 2013 and 2014.

 

There is no reason we shouldn't look at all avenues to improve, even at shortstop.

Our understanding of WAR is very different. WAR is position based and as a LF Escobar is below replacement level. His WAR last year has a lot of LF time. I would only look at a player's WAR as a position split.

 

Over the last two years Escobar has played 163 games at SS (157 starts). As a SS he is credited with 4.8 fWAR valued at 37.3 million.

 

Desmond is credited with 5.6 fWAR over the last two years but he needed 309 games to get to that level. He wasn't close to Escobar's contribution while playing SS.

 

On a per game basis only Tulowitzki has been credited with more fWAR as a shortstop over the last two years. Lindor and Correa were also better in their single season of play last year.

[nicksaviking]

 

Our understanding of WAR is very different. WAR is position based and as a LF Escobar is below replacement level. His WAR last year has a lot of LF time. I would only look at a player's WAR as a position split.

Over the last two years Escobar has played 163 games at SS (157 starts). As a SS he is credited with 4.8 fWAR valued at 37.3 million.

Desmond is credited with 5.6 fWAR over the last two years but he needed 309 games to get to that level. He wasn't close to Escobar's contribution while playing SS.
 

 

Spot on, one guy is trending upward the other is trending downward.

 

I will fully accept the very reasonable possibilities that both guys had a couple of fluke years in the opposite directions, but there is no way I buy that the 30-year-old Desmond is going to be enough better than Escobar and his arbitration salary the next four years to justify spending $60M on him.

 

And honestly, this looks way, way too much like Stephen Drew to me. Four years of this guy? Please, please no; three years is too many.

[h2oface]

 

How many more times does Eduardo Escobar have to prove himself ??

 

This year, again, for sure........ and every year after that. 

[jimmer]

 

Where did I say we shouldn't?

Sorry, my post seemed to imply you said that, but I didn't mean it that way.  It was just a final statement is all.  Lots of people saying he's really good and no need to address that spot.

[jimmer]

 

Our understanding of WAR is very different. WAR is position based and as a LF Escobar is below replacement level. His WAR last year has a lot of LF time. I would only look at a player's WAR as a position split.

Over the last two years Escobar has played 163 games at SS (157 starts). As a SS he is credited with 4.8 fWAR valued at 37.3 million.

Desmond is credited with 5.6 fWAR over the last two years but he needed 309 games to get to that level. He wasn't close to Escobar's contribution while playing SS.

On a per game basis only Tulowitzki has been credited with more fWAR as a shortstop over the last two years. Lindor and Correa were also better in their single season of play last year.

All this would be a nice rebuttal if I had actually compared their last two years at shortstop; however, I didn't do that.

 

It's also a slippery slope to project WAR as a person's WAR can go up and down throughout a year.  One might assume that with more games Escobar's WAR would automatically go up.That's not how it works. If I remember correctly, Hunter had a WAR close to 2.0 halfway through last season and ended up with 0.5 WAR. I certainly remember it being around 1.7 at some point.

 

It's also convenient to see a guy with three straight years of WAR of 4.0 or higher, then see one clear off year of 1.6, and assume it's going to stay that way that low. That probably extends to Tulo as well.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Spot on, one guy is trending upward the other is trending downward.

 

I will fully accept the very reasonable possibilities that both guys had a couple of fluke years in the opposite directions, but there is no way I buy that the 30-year-old Desmond is going to be enough better than Escobar and his arbitration salary the next four years to justify spending $60M on him.

 

And honestly, this looks way, way too much like Stephen Drew to me. Four years of this guy? Please, please no; three years is too many.

 

Thank you. Saved me time.

 

The idea of signing Desmond, an inferior shortstop, to help the defense suggests a lack of research is difficult to understand.

 

Other than hitting and fielding Desmond may have something over the younger and better Escobar, but I'm not aware of what that might be.

 

What is it about Eduardo that people don't like?

Many teams would jump at the chance to improve their SS position by adding  EE to their team.

 

I really hope they don't get the chance to celebrate such an event.

[jimmer]

Did someone suggest Desmond would be a better defensive player? Or did some suggest he's a better overall player?

[old nurse]

One could argue that Desmond could be the better player if he hit like it he did in 2012. The aging curve for middle infielders would lead one to believe that is not going to happen.  Over the last 2 years I don't think you can find any overwhelming evidence that Desmond is a better defensive shortstop than Escobar.

[nicksaviking]

Did someone suggest Desmond would be a better defensive player? Or did some suggest he's a better overall player?

He doesn't appear to be better offensively either so it's hard to buy base running or "leadership" is going to put him over the top.

[jimmer]

 

He doesn't appear to be better offensively either so it's hard to buy base running or "leadership" is going to put him over the top.

based on one year.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

All this would be a nice rebuttal if I had actually compared their last two years at shortstop; however, I didn't do that.

 

It's also a slippery slope to project WAR as a person's WAR can go up and down throughout a year.  One might assume that with more games Escobar's WAR would automatically go up.That's not how it works. If I remember correctly, Hunter had a WAR close to 2.0 halfway through last season and ended up with 0.5 WAR. I certainly remember it being around 1.7 at some point.

 

It's also convenient to see a guy with three straight years of WAR of 4.0 or higher, then see one clear off year of 1.6, and assume it's going to stay that way that low. That probably extends to Tulo as well.

 

Using a 40-year-old on his last legs is probably not the best example here.

 

It's not definite that Escobar's WAR would increase with a full season at SS, but it's reasonable to expect it would.

[jimmer]

 

Using a 40-year-old on his last legs is probably not the best example here.

 

It's not definite that Escobar's WAR would increase with a full season at SS, but it's reasonable to expect it would.

WAR fluctuates up and down all season for every player in the game. I used an example many Twins fans would know (since he's a Twin) and some tracked, considering some were praising the signing of him mid-season using WAR as talking point.

[nicksaviking]

based on one year.

I might argue two. Desmond and Escobar were pretty close to a push in 2014 as well.

[nicksaviking]

WAR fluctuates up and down all season for every player in the game. I used an example many Twins fans would know (since he's a Twin) and some tracked, considering some were praising the signing of him mid-season using WAR as talking point.

Yes but you already know that you are already on the plus side of WAR just for showing up at SS and you have to be pretty awful to lose that advantage.

[Monkeypaws]

Nicksaviking and oldgoat, I am in agreement with you.

 

Desmond has been trending steadilly downward the last 4 years, BA going down each year (from .292 to .233), Ks going up each year(from 113 to 187), errors going up each year (from 15 to 27).

 

I dont give a rip for war when his basic stats are that easy to read. Dude is 3-4 years older than EE, and with his size is likely to be more challenged as a SS with each passing year.

 

Heck, even the HR and RBI were at four year lows last year.

 

I see no good reason to even consider this guy over Escobar.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

What is it about Eduardo that people don't like?

 

The only thing I can come up with is that he's struggling to wash away the "utility man" label in the eyes of some folks.

 

If Nick Gordon's first four MLB seasons produce OPS's of .537, .628, .721, and .754, I imagine everybody would be thrilled by such steady improvement and celebrating how we FINALLY found our SS of the future. But when Escobar puts up those numbers, we need to find an "upgrade" at his position. Weird.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

Still quiet on the Desmond front:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/rays-interested-ian-desmond.html

 

He might be down to looking at a 3 year deal at this point.

 

As someone pointed out above, this whole thing is reminiscent of Stephen Drew, but I think Desmond's track record is a bit better overall.

 

I wouldn't mind him at 3 years $42 million for potentially a 20/20 type player. ***If*** our prospects pan out and are ready in 2 years, I'd consider that a good problem to have.