Going for it

[USAFChief]

http://nypost.com/2015/10/23/inside-the-frenzied-cespedes-trade-that-launched-mets-into-contenders/

 

Interesting, on several levels.

[Thrylos]

Can you imagine any of similar type information to be extracted out of the Twins' front office?

 

[nicksaviking]

Chief, what on earth are could you getting at?

[Winston Smith]

We are lucky Terry will always do whatever it takes to improve the Twins.

 

What if: Cole Hamels  goes 7-1 after the trade deadline and Pelfrey was 1-5. Terry has never made that kind of trade and we have no idea if he even asked what it may have taken but where would the Twins have ended up? Plus they now would have a top of the rotation guy for the next 3 years.

[Kwak]

 

We are lucky Terry will always do whatever it takes to improve the Twins.

 

What if: Cole Hamels  goes 7-1 after the trade deadline and Pelfrey was 1-5. Terry has never made that kind of trade and we have no idea if he even asked what it may have taken but where would the Twins have ended up? Plus they now would have a top of the rotation guy for the next 3 years.

But with the money they saved by not making  any trade similar to Hamels, the will build a swell, new bar out in the Center Field Bleachers!  Got to think long-term--that bar will be there long after all of the players are gone!

[TheLeviathan]

I generally think "going for it" is less effective than people believe, but this year it certainly worked for these two teams.

[twinsnorth49]

I generally think "going for it" is less effective than people believe, but this year it certainly worked for these two teams.

And not so much the Jays, can't work for everyone.

[Thrylos]

 

I generally think "going for it" is less effective than people believe, but this year it certainly worked for these two teams.

 

2?

 

Mets, Royals, Jays, Astros, Pirates, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs all made significant to major moves during the deadline time and made the post-season.  From the teams that made the post-season only the Yankees stayed put.

[TheLeviathan]

 

2?

 

Mets, Royals, Jays, Astros, Pirates, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs all made significant to major moves during the deadline time and made the post-season.  From the teams that made the post-season only the Yankees stayed put.

 

You're seriously going to put the Pirates, Cubs, and Angels in that bunch?

 

I mean, beyond the point that these teams didn't make "major" moves - at least one of them didn't even make the postseason.  Some were even worse after their trades.

[Monkeypaws]

No way was this the year for the Twins to go all in. Smoke and mirrors will only get you so far: too many holes, not enough top talent in its prime.

 

We exit the season on a pretty high note, with lots of good young players, and some nice veterans to shepherd them along. 

 

If the kids take the next step, and the pen can be beefed up, this will be a different conversation next year.

[nicksaviking]

I was not for "going for it" this year. Sorry to be a pessimist but we're talking about a hypothetical playoff run with a rotation led by Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. It just wasn't in the cards this year.

 

I don't disagree one bit that they should have gotten big time trade deadline deals done last time they were competitive though. And I don't disagree with those that think Ryan's history of not getting the players to put the team over the hump in the past isn't likely to change now.

[Thrylos]

 

You're seriously going to put the Pirates, Cubs, and Angels in that bunch?

 

I mean, beyond the point that these teams didn't make "major" moves - at least one of them didn't even make the postseason.  Some were even worse after their trades.

 

ok.  The Angels did not make the post-season.

And I said significant to major.

 

Aramis Ramirez, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ  and Joakim Soria (Pirates) are nothing?  I'd take them all to the Twins at the deadline.

 

The Cubs got Dan Haren and Tommy Hunter.  Pretty significant. I'd take both to the Twins at the deadline...

[kab21]

Are you calling Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts nothing?  The moves you listed were about as significant.  And for the most part they involved completely irrelevant prospects.  Going for it means that part of the future was sold.

 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Are you calling Kevin Jepsen and Neal Cotts nothing?  The moves you listed were about as significant.  And for the most part they involved completely irrelevant prospects.  Going for it means that part of the future was sold.

 

Neal Cotts: 5.99 FIP,  1.390 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.80 K/BB (replacement level or below - yes I am calling that one nothing)

Kevin Jepsen: 2.56 FIP, 0.893 WHIP, 8.0 K/9,  3.57 K/BB  (thumbs up)

 

JA Happ (SP) : 2.19 FIP, 1.026 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 5.31 K/BB (rather have that or Milone? or Pelfrey?)

Joakim Soria: 1.93 FIP, 1.163 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (better than Jepsen)

Joe Blanton:  2.11 FIP, 1.019 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB (better than Jepsen)

 

And no need to compare to Jepsen.  Compare to Perkins, and Tonkin and Fien and Cotts and O'Rourke and whomever the Twins were trotting (other than Jepsen and May) in their pen after the deadline.

 

One above average arm and a replacement level arm does not cut it (and apparently it did not.)

[TheLeviathan]

You completely destroy my willingness to take your point seriously when you think acquiring Jepsen is less than Dan Haren.

 

It's clear you just wanted to make as long a list as you could and completely overlooked the details of what you were doing.  By your list, we should start calling him Trader Terry for his "going for it" deadline.

[USAFChief]

I was not for "going for it" this year. Sorry to be a pessimist but we're talking about a hypothetical playoff run with a rotation led by Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. It just wasn't in the cards this year.

I don't disagree one bit that they should have gotten big time trade deadline deals done last time they were competitive though. And I don't disagree with those that think Ryan's history of not getting the players to put the team over the hump in the past isn't likely to change now.

Good post.

 

I do think the Twins would have had a better shot at a WC had Ryan made a serious attempt at improving the club. Hamels, for example, Wouldn't have required blowing up the farm ststem and wouldn't have been all about 2015. Hamels, Gibson, Duffey wouldn't have ended up significantly worse than what KC rode to the WS. Add Berrios to the pen, and that might be a couple wins.

 

Anyway, I just thought it was an interesting read.

[twinsnorth49]

2?

 

Mets, Royals, Jays, Astros, Pirates, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs all made significant to major moves during the deadline time and made the post-season. From the teams that made the post-season only the Yankees stayed put.

Wait, aren't you the win the World Series or bust guy?

 

Or does that only apply to TR and the Twins?

[biggentleben]

In-season moves for each playoff team and their respective bWAR:

 

Toronto - 4.5 bWAR added

Price - 2.4

Tulowitzki - 1.4

Revere - 0.6

Hawkins - 0.1

Lowe - 0.0

 

Yankees - 0.3 bWAR added

Ackley - 0.3

 

Royals - 0.8 bWAR added

Zobrist - 1.2

Cueto - 0.2

Butera - (-0.2)

Gomes - (-0.4)

 

Rangers - 2.8 bWAR added

Hamels - 1.7

Diekman - 0.9

Napoli - 0.4

Venable (-0.1)

Stubbs (-0.1)

 

Astros - 1.0 bWAR added

Fiers - 1.0

Gomez - 0.7

Kazmir - 0.0

Perez - (-0.7)

 

Mets - 3.6 bWAR added

Cespedes - 2.3

Uribe - 0.8

Reed - 0.6

Johnson - 0.3

Clippard - 0.2

Young - 0.1

O'Flaherty (-0.7)

 

Cardinals - 1.0 bWAR added

Cishek 0.4

Broxton 0.4

Moss - 0.2

 

Pirates - 3.3 bWAR added

Happ - 1.9

Blanton - 0.8

Soria - 0.7

Morse - 0.2

Ishikawa - (-0.1)

Ramirez - (-0.2)

 

Cubs - 0.8 bWAR added

Richard - 0.4

Cahill - 0.3

Haren - 0.2

Jackson - 0.2

Rodney - 0.2

Medina - (-0.1)

Hunter - (-0.2)

Soriano - (-0.2)

 

Dodgers - (-0.7) bWAR added

Utley - 0.9

Ruggiano - 0.6

Wood - 0.2

Thomas - 0.2

Avilan - (-0.2)

Peraza - (-0.2)

Latos - (-0.6)

Johnson - (-1.6)

 

Not everyone's big moves resulted in big additions to the team, unless you're referring to the placebo effect of adding a player to the roster.

[Thrylos]

 

Wait, aren't you the win the World Series or bust guy?

Or does that only apply to TR and the Twins?

 

Definitely not the not-good-enough-is-success guy...

 

Sure.  But you got to make it to the post-season and to the World Series to have a chance to win it, no?

 

It applies to all of them.  Ask the Pirates' fans or the Cardinals' fans about how they feel?  Ask them how they would have felt had they not made the post season.    Not black and white.

 

Even in Hell Inferno there are gradations

 

http://jballi.qwriting.qc.cuny.edu/files/2011/11/Dantes-Inferno.jpg

[beckmt]

Core was not good enough to win, and Texas gave up a lot for Hamels. Some of the posters I saw on other sites called the deal a win for the Phillies.  Toronto got a lot, but gave up a lot of possible very good pitchers from their system. 

Terry Ryan would have had to move about 1/2 of the Twins top prospects to get some of the players to try and get the Twins to the next level. 

Offseason moves should patch most of the holes(catcher, bullpen and upgrade to the starting rotation). This may be helped by moving some of the mid level contracts the Twins now have on the books.

 

[twinsnorth49]

Definitely not the not-good-enough-is-success guy...

 

Sure. But you got to make it to the post-season and to the World Series to have a chance to win it, no?

 

It applies to all of them. Ask the Pirates' fans or the Cardinals' fans about how they feel? Ask them how they would have felt had they not made the post season. Not black and white.

 

Even in Hell Inferno there are gradations

 

http://jballi.qwriting.qc.cuny.edu/files/2011/11/Dantes-Inferno.jpg

I'll take that as an official moving of the goal posts, or just a double standard.

[kab21]

 

Neal Cotts: 5.99 FIP,  1.390 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.80 K/BB (replacement level or below - yes I am calling that one nothing)

Kevin Jepsen: 2.56 FIP, 0.893 WHIP, 8.0 K/9,  3.57 K/BB  (thumbs up)

 

JA Happ (SP) : 2.19 FIP, 1.026 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 5.31 K/BB (rather have that or Milone? or Pelfrey?)

Joakim Soria: 1.93 FIP, 1.163 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB (better than Jepsen)

Joe Blanton:  2.11 FIP, 1.019 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 4.33 K/BB (better than Jepsen)

 

And no need to compare to Jepsen.  Compare to Perkins, and Tonkin and Fien and Cotts and O'Rourke and whomever the Twins were trotting (other than Jepsen and May) in their pen after the deadline.

 

One above average arm and a replacement level arm does not cut it (and apparently it did not.)

You missed the greater point.  Going for it isn't trading 1-2 of your 10-30th ranked prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't solely judge teams on winning the WS, the WS is about entertainment, not the best team. I view what the Jays did this year (and in signing a great FA catcher for "peanuts") as great moves.

 

Can't wait to read next year how it wasn't the year to go for it, but the following year will be.....never read that before.....

[SwainZag]

 

I don't solely judge teams on winning the WS, the WS is about entertainment, not the best team. I view what the Jays did this year (and in signing a great FA catcher for "peanuts") as great moves.

Can't wait to read next year how it wasn't the year to go for it, but the following year will be.....never read that before.....

 

I just can't call $82M over 5 year "peanuts." Especially when he's getting $20M per in his 34-36 year old seasons.  Martin is a very good hitting catcher, but it's still a pretty dang good chunk of money.

[Seth Stohs]

 

2?

 

Mets, Royals, Jays, Astros, Pirates, Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs all made significant to major moves during the deadline time and made the post-season.  From the teams that made the post-season only the Yankees stayed put.

 

But you've said many times in the past that none of it matters is they don't win a World Series title. I believe that is the case, right? 

 

Angels didn't make the playoffs.

 

Twins made a move that may not have  been seen as significant, but where would they have been without Kevin Jepsen?

 

The Cubs added a couple more young players... So did the Twins. Miguel Sano was a pretty impressive pick up for the team in July. 

[nytwinsfan]

I'd make moves (not just at the trade deadline, but in any trades and in drafting) to maximize the number of playoff appearances.  Playoff baseball is a crapshoot.  Even the best teams have only a slightly higher chance of winning the world series than the less good playoff teams. 7, 5 or 1 game series are not large enough sample sizes to allow the best team to rise to the top every year, or even most years.  So the strategy should be to maximize playoff appearances. Yes, Flags Fly Forever. Not only do I not disagree, I agree completely. But I claim that the the team that makes it to the playoffs most often will have the most Flags Flying Forever, statistically speaking. So in expected value terms, going all in for one or two years often doesn't make sense, since it will reduce the likelihood of you making the playoffs for years to come. Does that mean never trading prospects at the deadline?  No, but it means mostly doing so when it is likely to help you on the margin make the playoffs, not when it is likely to make you a slightly better playoff team. And also it means that you have to weigh the future expected value of those prospects in helping you make the playoffs in future years, versus the marginal increase in the chances of making the playoffs this year.

[jimmer]

 

. But I claim that the the team that makes it to the playoffs most often will have the most Flags Flying Forever, statistically speaking. 

From 2002-2010, we went to the playoffs 6 times.  That's 6 times in 9 years. We never reached the W Series and only made it to the ALCS once. My oldest boy has graduated from high school, served a 4 year term in the Army, got married, bought a house.  And he's never seen the Twins in the W Series,.

 

I agree the playoffs are a crapshoot, but it helps to make moves to put you over the edge.

[nytwinsfan]

 

From 2002-2010, we went to the playoffs 6 times.  That's 6 times in 9 years. We never reached the W Series and only made it to the ALCS once. My oldest boy has graduated from high school, served a 4 year term in the Army, got married, bought a house.  And he's never seen the Twins in the W Series,.

 

I agree the playoffs are a crapshoot, but it helps to make moves to put you over the edge.

Well, given that there were 4 teams from each league, you would expect the Twins to get to the world series just 1.5 times out of those 6 years if they were an average playoff team. So the Twins underperformed over that period. But then they made it to the World Series (and won twice) two out of two times in the late 80s-early 90s, which is way better than expected outcome. If you look over the last 30 years, which is still too small of a sample size, but still better than the last 15 years, the Twins' much much bigger problem has been not making the playoffs, not failing to do well in the playoffs.

[jimmer]

 

Well, given that there were 4 teams from each league, you would expect the Twins to get to the world series just 1.5 times out of those 6 years if they were an average playoff team. So the Twins underperformed over that period. But then they made it to the World Series (and won twice) two out of two times in the late 80s-early 90s, which is way better than expected outcome. If you look over the last 30 years, which is still too small of a sample size, but still better than the last 15 years, the Twins' much much bigger problem has been not making the playoffs, not failing to do well in the playoffs.

But a lot of teams didn't make the playoffs and certainly most didn't make it as much as we did in the span I put out there.  Now you want to move the goal posts?

 

You specifically talked about teams that made the playoffs  'the team that makes it to the playoffs most often will have the most Flags Flying Forever, statistically speaking.'  And we had zero WS appearances, much less wins, even though we went to the playoffs 6 times in 9 seasons.

 

Also, playoffs were a lot different during the last two W Series seasons.  Only had to win one series to get to the W Series. The game has changed a lot in regards to the playoffs.

 

I guess my point is, not only do I agree with you that the playoffs are a crapshoot (even more nowadays than it was when we last won a W Series), I believe it's more of a crapshoot than you do.

[nytwinsfan]

 

But a lot of teams didn't make the playoffs and certainly most didn't make it as much as we did in the span I put out there.  Now you want to move the goal posts?

 

You specifically talked about teams that made the playoffs  'the team that makes it to the playoffs most often will have the most Flags Flying Forever, statistically speaking.'  And we had zero WS appearances, much less wins, even though we went to the playoffs 6 times in 9 seasons.

If you cherry pick small sample sizes of 8 years (2002-2010) for one team, then sure, you can back up almost any point. But the whole point of the phrase "statistically speaking" is that it doesn't show up in the data until you get to large sample sizes. You might say, well if it doesn't show up in the data for a long time, then why do we care since we will be dead by then. Two reasons, (1) because your son or gradnson will be around then, and we are concered with long time horizons, since by our initial assumptions, we are talking about flags flying "forever." (2) More fundamentally, even over the short run, I argue the team that makes it to the playoffs most often will win the most world series, on average. You may disagree with that, and I could be wrong, but being able to pick an 8 year period for one team out of 30 where that didn't come true doesn't even remotely disprove the assertion. It doesn't even come close.