Article: Did You Know?

[Parker Hageman]

The 2015 Minnesota Twins season is dead and gone.

 

People mourn the end of the baseball in different ways. One way is to stare at tons of numbers on a computer screen trying to make sense of the season. For instance, did you know Trevor Plouffe was terrible when facing fastballs? Or that Kyle Gibson threw the fewest in-zone pitches among all qualified starters?

 

Here are all the little statistical tidbits from 2015.Can’t handle the heat? Trevor Plouffe’s .220 average against fastballs was the fourth-lowest among all qualified hitters. On the other hand, he was one of the game’s best when it came to doing damage on breaking balls (curves and sliders). His OPS against those pitches was .820 -- 9th-highest among MLB hitters. In fact, Plouffe collected 25 extra base hits on breaking balls (only Yoenis Cespedes [26] had more) and was able to do that damage because he attacked the hangers up in the zone.

http://i.imgur.com/yYyfMhh.gif

 

Plouffe also had five extra base hits with the bases loaded this season. Only Boston’s Xander Bogaerts had more (6).

 

Miguel Sano’s season was incredible for a 22-year-old. According to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index, dating back to 1914 Sano’s .916 OPS is the 21st highest among 22-year-olds with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. He demonstrated a unique blend of patience and power as he drew walks in 15.8% of his plate appearances (11th highest among 22-year-olds) and, according to BaseballSavant.com’s batting ball velocity, he put balls in play at an average of 94.45 MPH. Only Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton pelted balls harder (97.73 MPH).

 

On September 30, Sano hit this Zach McAllister 95.2 MPH fastball into the bleachers at 114 MPH. This would be the hardest hit ball for the Twins in 2015, according to BaseballSavant.com:

 

http://i.imgur.com/A5RPDn8.gif

 

Sano’s .916 OPS also ties him with Tony Oliva for the highest OPS by a Twins’ rookie.

 

Bryon Buxton is really fast. I don’t have a stat or a number or anything but...just...just trust me on this.

 

Brian Dozier hit a team-leading 28 home runs this year. Seven of those bad boys came on pitches outside of the strike zone (tied for MLB-high with Colorado’s Nolan Arenado).

 

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_heatmap (4).png

Dozier also had the honors of facing two of the three fastest pitches in the 2015 in his at bat against Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman. According to MLB’s Statcast, Chapman’s 1-2 offering reached 103.9 mile per hour but had the perceived speed of 105 miles per hour thanks to Chapman’s long limbs. It is amazing that Dozier was able to even get a piece of it.

 

http://i.imgur.com/gIdnDoy.gif

 

For the bulk of the season Dozier was used as the team’s primary leadoff hitters (102 games) but the combination of him, Aaron Hicks (31 games) and Danny Santana (18 games) led to one of the lowest productivity from the top of the lineup across baseball. Thanks in part to Dozier’s 22 home runs out of the leadoff spot (only Curtis Granderson [26] and Manny Machado [23] had more), the Twins did score 104 runs (7th out of 30), but in terms of setting up the offense to do further damage, they finished 27th in on-base percentage (.298).

 

Speaking of out-of-zone home runs...rookie Eddie Rosario’s free-swinging tendencies landed him with some unexpected home runs this year. He was able to launch two shots on pitches not only out-of-zone pitches but those classified as “non-competitive” (basically those pitches categorized as no one in their right mind would swing at). Of course, the outfielder also struck out 45 times on non-competitive pitches, the 8th-most in MLB.

Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_heatmap (5).png

Rosario’s triple total of 15 was the most by a rookie since Philadelphia’s Juan Samuel stretched out 19 three-baggers in 1984. Since 1950, only Samuel and the Dodgers’ Jim Gilliam (17) hit more triples in their rookie year than Rosario.

 

Can’t start a fire without a spark. The Twins overall had the lowest batting average (.227) and on-base percentage (.280) when the bases were empty. However, with men in scoring position, they had the third-highest batting average (.279) and fourth-highest on-base percentage (.351).

 

By most offensive yardsticks, Joe Mauer’s 2015 season wasn’t...you know...good. That said, when it came to getting hits with runners in scoring position, Mauer was able to contribute to the cause. His .352 average in 125 at-bats was the 9th-highest but, more importantly, he only made an out in 52.7% on a ball in play in those situations -- the lowest rate in MLB.

 

Mauer also led baseball by reaching base on an error 14 times. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

Among all starting right fielders Torii Hunter’s .702 OPS was the third-lowest and his WAR (0.5) was fifth-lowest. While everything was statistically bad overall, Hunter did post a .289/.368/.529 slash line in 144 plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

 

Eduardo Nunez’s helmet came off a lot.

 

http://i.imgur.com/MrYCTw3.gif

Outs all over the place. Danny Santana’s magical BABIP-drive 2014 season was followed by a horrific nightmare of a year in 2015. Among all Twins shortstops who were afforded 200 plate appearances, Santana’s .241 OBP was only better than Houston Jimenez (.238, 1984) and Jackie Hernandez (.218, 1968). That's a ton of outs.

 

How about the outs Santana didn’t make? Since Fangraphs.com began tracking the revised zone metric (RZR) defensive rating in 2003, Santana’s .758 RZR was the worst among all Twins’ shortstops. What that means is that Santana has converted only 75.8% of plays in his zone into outs. The Twins eventually replaced him with Eduardo Escobar and Fangraphs/Inside Edge’s fielding data shows a remarkable difference for where Santana was significantly worse than Escobar at making simple routine plays:

 

http://i.imgur.com/9S5l1iN.gif

Aaron Hicks would lead the team in stolen bases with 13...it was the lowest amount of swipes for a Twins season leader since Ron Washington (10) in 1983.

 

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Twins managed to thwart just 22 would-be base stealers. Their 19% caught stealing rate was lowest in baseball. Kurt Suzuki threw out just 15% of runners, the lowest rate among all qualified catchers.

 

For no reason whatsoever, here is the Berenguer Boogie.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Kv7SYGD.gif

 

The Twins starting rotation allowed 163 home runs in 2015 (the 18th most in the majors). However 80 of those dingers came when there was men on base -- only Philadelphia (82) and Oakland (85) allowed more.

 

Among all qualified starters, Kyle Gibson threw the lowest percentage of his pitches in the strike zone (40.5%) but that did not stop hitters from swinging: Only Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (37.8%) posted a high chase rate than Gibson (40.5%). Avoiding the zone was a sound strategy for Gibson as opponents held a .831 OPS on pitches in the zone, well above the MLB average of .751.

 

Rookie pitcher Tyler Duffey compiled a solid stat line, going 5-1 with a 3.10 ERA and a 53/20 K/BB ratio over 58 innings. There may be an element of luck in play for Duffey’s totals: According to BaseballSavant.com’s Batting Ball Velocity warehouse obtained from MLBAM’s statcast cameras, opponents had a 91.22 MPH exit velocity average -- that’s the 8th highest among all pitchers with 100 or more at-bats.

 

Making contact was an issue for hitters in his outing: Duffey struck out 21.8% of batters faced, only second to Francisco Liriano’s 30.2% strikeout rate by a Twins rookie pitcher. The reason for that was his knee-buckling and whiff-inducing knuckle-curve. No pitcher in 2015 threw a higher percentage of curves than Duffy did (39.8%) but the yakker was responsible for 45 of his 53 strikeouts.

 

Ricky Nolasco has now pitched 194.1 innings in a Twins uniform and his 5.56 ERA is the sixth highest for a Twins starter with a minimum of 150 innings or more thrown. Ahead of him? Jim Deshaies (5.71), Anthony Swarzak (5.87), LaTroy Hawkins (6.11), Pat Mahomes (6.26) and Scott Aldred (6.54). His .313 batting average against is the highest. Oh, and he is the only Twins pitcher to allow a home run that landed on a boat.

 

Phil Hughes’ second season in the Twins uniform did not go quite as planned. Despite the loud contact and home runs and injuries, Hughes did the one thing he was really good at: He didn’t issue any free passes. Hughes walked 0.95 batters per nine innings in 2015 which is the third lowest season total behind Carlos Silva’s ridiculous 2005 (0.43) and Hughes’ 2014 (0.69).

 

Hitters were getting good wood on Hughes’ pitches in the first half: His .201 well-hit average trailed behind only Colorado’s Kyle Kendrick for the highest in baseball.

 

http://i.imgur.com/GNmXJm1.gif

 

An elite All Star closer for the first half of the season, injuries once again marred Glen Perkins’ second half. Perkins’ fastball velocity has declined over the past two seasons, mostly likely injury related. In 2013, he chucked 111 fastballs at 96 MPH or above. Last season he failed to crack 96 at all. This year? Four times he was able to amp it up to 96 -- three of which happened in the same game versus the St. Louis Cardinals on June 17.

 

Perkins’ 78% contact rate (contact per swing) was the second-highest among closers (minimum 15 saves). Only the Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen (72.5%) and Jonathan Papelbon (70.8%) fired more strikes than Perkins (70.1%) and only Papelbon (3.47) used fewer pitches per batter than Perkins (3.50).

 

Kevin Jepsen’s 75 appearances (33 with the Twins) was the highest in the American League over the entire year but Casey Fien’s 35 appearances in the second half was one behind Texas’ Shawn Tolleson for the most by an AL reliever post-All Star Game.

 

Before we go, a young Kent Hrbek striking out and flipping his bat.

http://i.imgur.com/AbzVQcW.gif

 

Click here to view the article

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hmmm... so leadoff help.  Wonder if Hicks can step into that role next year.  Not sure I'm ready for Buxton there just yet, but letting Dozier bat with meon on base would be nice.

[Mike Sixel]

Very entertaining stuff. Thanks,

[USAFChief]

awesome work, Parker!

[Parker Hageman]

Hmmm... so leadoff help.Wonder if Hicks can step into that role next year.Not sure I'm ready for Buxton there just yet, but letting Dozier bat with meon on base would be nice.

 

 

Certainly Danny Santana wasn't the answer. 

 

I like Hicks' skill sets. I'm not entirely sure he is a guy who is fully prepared for that role. He hit much better down in the order than at the top but a lot of his leadoff at bats came after his hamstring injury. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is Plouffe's .220 average against fastballs (thanks for letting the cat out of the bag, by the way) something to be concerned about, or just an anomaly? It seems like one of those stats that's so obvious that maybe the opposing pitching coaches might not see it. "Their #5 hitter can't hit fastballs" is not something you would expect to hear very often.

[Parker Hageman]

Is Plouffe's .220 average against fastballs (thanks for letting the cat out of the bag, by the way) something to be concerned about, or just an anomaly?

 

 

You typically don't see good hitters not being able to hit fastballs. Some good hitters have had bad seasons vs fastballs (Mike Moustakas was bad two years in a row then had a good one this year). Most will tell you having success vs sliders/curves is unsustainable. 

 

[OldTimeTwinkie]

Nice info ☆ thanks

[dxpavelka]

 

Hmmm... so leadoff help.  Wonder if Hicks can step into that role next year.  Not sure I'm ready for Buxton there just yet, but letting Dozier bat with meon on base would be nice.

So would Dozier not reacting to the All-Star break like it was Kryptonite.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Nice to see Sano's season in context. He made such a splash that it was frustrating and felt like he was struggling when not hitting a homerun per game. Would you give more stats on Buxton? Buck obviously has the upside but needs to produce on the field. Does the surprising +.500 record this year hurt Buck's chances to start 2016 in Minnesota since we are now expecting to contend?

[Parker Hageman]

Would you give more stats on Buxton? Buck obviously has the upside but needs to produce on the field.

 

 

You can find a lot of stats on Buxton's season in my last post: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/behind-byron-buxtons-struggles-r4198

 

[sane]

 

Is Plouffe's .220 average against fastballs (thanks for letting the cat out of the bag, by the way) something to be concerned about, or just an anomaly? It seems like one of those stats that's so obvious that maybe the opposing pitching coaches might not see it. "Their #5 hitter can't hit fastballs" is not something you would expect to hear very often.

It may NOT be that "Their #5 hitter can't hit fastballs", so much as he is "sitting on" off-speed, because he is seeing it so often. I am guessing that when he starts to see more fastballs, he will begin sitting on the fastball and improve hitting fastballs and degrade his ability to hit off-speed pitches.

[Vanimal46]

Do you have any insight on why opponents were able get an .831 OPS on Gibson's pitches in the zone? Were they waiting for the sinker in a hitter's count? Just didn't have the "stuff" to fool opposing hitters?

[Platoon]

Thanks for all the info. Do you have any stats on the Twins number of called 3rd strikes, vs swinging. And how it compares with MLB averages?

[Shaitan]

Great piece, great game. Damn, is it Spring Training yet?

[Hrbowski]

Torii Hunter was 7th out of 18 qualified right fielders in UZR, finishing higher than Josh Reddick, Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Markakis, and Bryce Harper.

[jimmer]

 

Torii Hunter was 7th out of 18 qualified right fielders in UZR, finishing higher than Josh Reddick, Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Markakis, and Bryce Harper.

Then you see that Bryce Harper had 7 defensive runs saved (4th), Carlos Gonzalez had 5 (T-6), Reddick had 1 (T-9), Markakis had -6 (13th) and Hunter had -8 (14th). And it's not like Markakis and Cargo have been considered good RF. In fact, it's Cargo's first year as anywhere near a full time RF and Markakis had one good year on defense this decade.

 

There aren't too many good defensive RF in the game right now. It's why Heyward has so much value.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2015 by jimmer

[Hrbowski]

 

Then you see that Bryce Harper had 7 defensive runs saved (4th), Carlos Gonzalez had 5 (T-6), Reddick had 1 (T-9), Markakis had -6 (13th) and Hunter had -8 (14th). And it's not like Markakis and Cargo have been considered good RF. In fact, it's Cargo's first year as anywhere near a full time RF and Markakis had one good year on defense this decade.

 

There aren't too many good defensive RF in the game right now. It's why Heyward has so much value.

Yeah, Heyward is like a centerfielder playing right, and even though he is likely never going to be a star hitter in his career he can give you good value in just about every category.

[Parker Hageman]

This was asked on Twitter but I thought I'd share here:

 

 

No question that Suzuki's 2015 season was disappointing. The drop in offense versus right handed pitchers is a product of his inability to go the other way as well as he did last year. 

 

In 2014, he hit .271 (.163 well-hit average) with seven doubles when going to right field. This year he hit just .145 (.095 well-hit average) with a lone double the other way. 

 

Why this happened is unclear. Pitchers seemed to use the same weapons and attacked him in a similar manner. Looking over some of his swings, you see that he was often pulling off on his swing (particularly with his head). Here is an example of two similar pitches that Suzuki hit to right field. The top is 2014 and the bottom is 2015. 

 

http://i.imgur.com/uwfvhW3.png

 

While the point of contact looks almost identical in the swing from 2014, Suzuki laces a liner to right. In the 2015, he flies out to right. Now, watch what Suzuki's head does on these two swings.  

 

2014

 

http://i.imgur.com/KFDUd0r.gif

 

2015

http://i.imgur.com/tSe53n8.gif

 

In the example above, the head stays still and follows the pitch to right field. In the one below, he is pulling off, which explains why he "just missed" that pitch. I believe this is a microcosm for what has happened to him all season in that scenario. 

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, Heyward is like a centerfielder playing right, and even though he is likely never going to be a star hitter in his career he can give you good value in just about every category.

No, he may not, but he's carried an OPS+ over 110 in 3 of the last 4 seasons and 4 of his 6 MLB seasons.  He gets on base over 35% of the time and his wRC+ has been over 120 in 3 of the last 4 seasons as well   which puts him securely in the above average category.  I'd take that any day when you also get his defense :-)  He's the RF version of KCs LF A Gordon.

[jimmer]

Suzuki, like Hughes, went back to who they had been for a few years.  Wasn't hard to see their 2014 were outliers nor hard to predict huge regression in 2015 (especially for Suzuki who started his regression in 2nd half of 2014).

Edited October 10, 2015 by jimmer

[Parker Hageman]

Suzuki, like Hughes, went back to who they had been for a few years.  Wasn't hard to see their 2014 were outliers nor hard to predict huge regression in 2015 (especially for Suzuki who started his regression in 2nd half of 2014).

 

 

Yes and no. 

 

Suzuki's career has been inconsistent but 2014 wasn't necessarily that big of an outlier for him. He's had four seasons when he's had a wOBA of .320 or higher (above average for a catcher over the last five years) and he's had three seasons of a wOBA of .275 or lower (well below average for a catcher). 

 

Now you could easily say his numbers were going to come down from 2014 but the fact that it turned into his second worst season in his career has more to do with injuries and approach than the mystical workings of baseball regression. 

 

[jimmer]

 

Yes and no. 

 

Suzuki's career has been inconsistent but 2014 wasn't necessarily that big of an outlier for him. He's had four seasons when he's had a wOBA of .320 or higher (above average for a catcher over the last five years) and he's had three seasons of a wOBA of .275 or lower (well below average for a catcher). 

 

Now you could easily say his numbers were going to come down from 2014 but the fact that it turned into his second worst season in his career has more to do with injuries and approach than the mystical workings of baseball regression. 

Yeah, when you point out that it was his 2nd worst season in his career, that's a bit misleading no?Technically it's true but it doesn't really tell us how much worse it was than his 3rd worst season does it? The difference between his 2nd worst season and 3rd worst season is a whopping 1 point difference in wRC+ so it's not like the dropoff from 2013 to 2015 was huge and, therefore, pointing out it was his 2nd worst season really doesn't mean much.

 

Here are his wRC+ numbers in the last 4 seasons (which includes his worst, 2nd worst and 3rd worst offensive seasons). 63, 67, 109 and 66.  One of those is CLEARLY not like the others (2014) and the other three (the ones that are his three worse seasons) are all within 5 points of each other. In other words, not much different at all and his 3 worst seasons have occurred in his last 4 seasons. In other words, they haven't been spread over his career suggesting his 2015 was out of the blue.  From 2012-2015 we see his worst, 3rd worst, best by far and then his 2nd worst.

 

But 2014, his best season ever, isn't the extreme outlier?  If someone sees a over 30 year old catcher guy with a 63 and 67 wRC+ in his previous two seasons (his two worst seasons at the time), then he has a career year at 107 wRC+. which seems more likely to happen the following season when looking at magical regression?  Most likely the next year is going to be way closer to the 63 and 67, no?  And look what happened.

Edited October 10, 2015 by jimmer

[jokin]

 

Yeah, when you point out that it was his 2nd worst season in his career, that's a but misleading no?Technically it's true but it doesn't really tell us how much worse it was than his 3rd worst season does it? Nor does it tell us when his 3rd worst season, and worst season, occurred in relation to the 2nd worst. The difference between his 2nd worst season and 3rd worst season is a whopping 1 point difference in wRC+ and they both occurred in 2 of his last 3 seasons. So it's not like the dropoff from 2013 to 2015 was huge, it was 1 point in wRC+.  Would it have made a difference if his 2015 wRC+ had been 2 point betters so it was only his 3rd worst season of his career?  It still would have been a huge dropoff from 2014.  

 

Here are his wRC+ numbers in the last 4 seasons (which includes his worst, 2nd worst and 3rd worst offensive seasons). 63, 67, 66 and 109.  One of those is CLEARLY not like the others (2014) and the other three (the ones that are his three worse seasons) are all within 5 points of each other. In other words, not much different at all and his 3 worst seasons have occurred in his last 4 seasons.

 

But 2014, his best season ever, isn't the extreme outlier?  If someone sees a over 30 year old catcher guy with a 63 and 67 wRC+ (his two worst seasons at the time), then he has a career year at 107 wRC+. which seems more likely to happen when looking at magical regression?  Most likely the next year is going to be way closer to the 63 and 67, no?  And look what happened.

 

Yep.  Still scratching my head on what went down the last week of July, 2014.  Ryan had a young, still-rebuilding team with glaring holes, and an expendable piece at catcher on a hot run at the plate, that might have made a nice insurance policy on a contender flush with expendable assets- maybe could have gotten a B-/C+ prospect or perhaps as part of a package, gotten one or two controllable pitchers in trade. 

 

Was it Gardy who still carried enough weight who insisted that Suzuki HAD to be re-signed? Or, does Ryan after all these years still not understand the career/outlier years of established vets and the laws of regression when considering contract extensions?

[spinowner]

 

Yeah, Heyward is like a centerfielder playing right, and even though he is likely never going to be a star hitter in his career he can give you good value in just about every category.

Substitute the name Hicks for the name Heyward. That's my guess for the future.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Yeah, when you point out that it was his 2nd worst season in his career, that's a bit misleading no?Technically it's true but it doesn't really tell us how much worse it was than his 3rd worst season does it? The difference between his 2nd worst season and 3rd worst season is a whopping 1 point difference in wRC+ so it's not like the dropoff from 2013 to 2015 was huge and, therefore, pointing out it was his 2nd worst season really doesn't mean much.

 

Here are his wRC+ numbers in the last 4 seasons (which includes his worst, 2nd worst and 3rd worst offensive seasons). 63, 67, 109 and 66.  One of those is CLEARLY not like the others (2014) and the other three (the ones that are his three worse seasons) are all within 5 points of each other. In other words, not much different at all and his 3 worst seasons have occurred in his last 4 seasons. In other words, they haven't been spread over his career suggesting his 2015 was out of the blue.  From 2012-2015 we see his worst, 3rd worst, best by far and then his 2nd worst.

 

But 2014, his best season ever, isn't the extreme outlier?  If someone sees a over 30 year old catcher guy with a 63 and 67 wRC+ in his previous two seasons (his two worst seasons at the time), then he has a career year at 107 wRC+. which seems more likely to happen the following season when looking at magical regression?  Most likely the next year is going to be way closer to the 63 and 67, no?  And look what happened.

 

I think you are rifling through a lot of words and numbers to say basically the same thing: Regression was inevitable. 

 

Where I disagree with you is on the method that you reached that conclusion. If you looked at Suzuki's four seasons prior to 2014, you would have wRC+ of 83, 90, 64 and 67. Yes, 2014 was a jump but it also came with a change in his approach at the plate (http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553) that began when he was traded back to Oakland in late 2013. If you were looking at his body of work prior to the 2014 season, you could easily take a gamble that Suzuki might perform close to the league-average (which he wound up doing over that year). 

 

If you are going off of four seasons, you know have wRC+ of 90, 64, 67, 107. Now you have two seasons of average to above average sandwiching two bad years. Based on that, there is really no reason to suspect a sudden drop-off based on your methodology. Yes, age, second-half decline and wear & tear as a catcher were reasons to expect a drop in production in 2015 but it doesn't really answer the question why he was able to produce at his career best one year and drop off to one of the career worst the next. 

 

[jimmer]

When trying to figure out what a player will do, one normally looks back at the last three seasons which were wRC+ of 63, 67 and 104.  At least that's what I've been told and what I do.  And it makes sense to me. How far back does one go before what a player did becomes irrelevant? 5 years? Does what a player did in 2010 really come into play when trying to predict what a guy will do in 2015? Rule of thumb seems three years.

 

So, by doing that, I saw that going into 2014 he had his worst season and his 2nd worse season.  Then he had his way out of character wRC+ in 2014. Seeing that, I figured it was more likely he'd go back to something much closer to his 2012 and 2013 then come close to what he did in 2014.  And when his change in approach was pointed out as a reason he had turned around his offensive woes last year, I pointed out then that it seemed unlikely he could sustain that.  He didn't sustain it and the fall started in the 2nd half.

 

But we disagree on methods.  I felt comfortable with my method, even moreso knowing how it worked out. Exactly how I thought it would.  Same thing with Hughes.

Edited October 11, 2015 by jimmer

[Parker Hageman]

Do you have any insight on why opponents were able get an .831 OPS on Gibson's pitches in the zone? Were they waiting for the sinker in a hitter's count? Just didn't have the "stuff" to fool opposing hitters?

 

 

It's not surprising but the majority of the in-zone damage was on sinkers that were left up in the zone. It's not that it is an particular count but hitters have attacked sinkers that don't stay down. 

 

[Parker Hageman]

But we disagree on methods.  I felt comfortable with my method, even moreso knowing how it worked out.

 

 

A broken clock is right twice a day too. 

 

Again, I think we're saying roughly the same thing regarding his regression. But the conversation is not "how much regression" but "why" and, to me, simply saying because his three or four year sample size indicated a pattern that should result in another bad year isn't good enough to answer the "why" question. 

 

I tip my cap to your ability to foresee Suzuki's terrible season. 

[jimmer]

 

A broken clock is right twice a day too. 

Of course.