Grading the Twins Trade Deadline Move/Non-Moves 2 Months Later

[Loosey]

We have had about 2 months now to dissect the Twins trade deadline move now and give it a grade.  The Twins only deadline move was a trade for reliever Kevin Jepsen and a waiver deadline trade for Neal Cotts.

 

At the time of the trade for Jepsen I would roughly estimate 85% of Twins fans were very upset for one reason or another.  Either they were upset the Twins traded away Hu for Jepsen or/and they were upset that was the only move the Twins made.

 

The Twins were rumored to have been in contact with Colorado for Tulowitzki, San Diego for James Shields and Benoit, Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez, and a handful of others that were pretty speculative in nature.

 

When the dust settled it was Kevin Jepsen for Chi Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia. 

 

People were pissed.  People were pissed for one of two reasons or both. 

 

1) It was the only deal at the deadline

2) They traded a prospect that may turn into something at some point

3) Both

 

I'm not going to lie, I was in camp #1 and was straddling on #2 whether to be upset about that or not.

 

Fast Forward two months and here is what has happened:

 

Jepsen has been a savior to the bullpen with Perkins ailing and struggling.  He has grabbed the closer role in the interim and has been very effective. 

 

Troy Tulowitzki was a pipe dream, but Eduardo Escobar has outplayed him since the deadline.

James Shields has pitched James Shields-like but if he was acquired it most likely would have meant Tyler Duffey would not have been called up.  And Frankly Duffey has pitched better than Shields since his first big league start.

 

Carlos Gomez is a Carlos Gomez.  Wasn't a necessity since Hicks took off and became a very good outfielder the 2nd half of this season.

 

Of that list the only one they didn't Acquire who would have been a nice addition over what they have would have been Benoit.  Having one more quality arm in the pen would have been nice over the few week swoon the team had with pitching injuries.  Neal Cotts has been a decent middle reliever, but nothing more than bridge guy to get you to your stud relievers.

 

So, after looking back not making moves may have actually been the right call for most part.  Jepsen has been better than expected and necessary piece.

 

Overall I give the deadline moves a B+. 

[DaveW]

C

 

The Jepsen move has worked out, but failing to acquire an additional arm likely is the reason we aren't ahead of the stros and Angels at this point. Failing to upgrade the catcher spot at all was also a huge mistake.

[gunnarthor]

B+ sounds about right.  There wasn't any catching upgrades out there and the Twins were right not to throw prospects out for a guy like Price.  Scott Kazmir seemed like a good guy to go after but even he was pretty expensive prospect-wise (and he only wanted to go to Houston).  Ryan did a pretty good job of judging the teams chances and future.  

[Dantes929]

Suzuki has played pretty well since the deadline and has had some big hits.   For one brief moment we had Perkins, May and Jepsen to handle innings 7-9 and if May and Perkins were right for longer this would have been formidable.  As for adding another arm maybe the price for that would have been Duffey, who knows.   Also any guy we get is going to give up runs also.    Who knows, we might have been a better team but with worse results.   On average it probably would have been worth a win depending on who we got and that one win would look pretty huge right now so maybe it would have been worth it.   Need an alternative universe to know.    I am  a big fan of promoting from within and we got Buxton and Duffey and kept with Suzuki and Escobar so I am ok with the B+.   Promoting Berrios earlier would have gotten them even higher.

[Mike Sixel]

I give it a solid Meh......another arm and AJ would have been moved to a solid NICE for me. I wanted Tulowitzki......and I still think he'll be better than Escobar next yaer, but that's a nice non-trade for this team, I think.

[gunnarthor]

 

I give it a solid Meh......another arm and AJ would have been moved to a solid NICE for me. I wanted Tulowitzki......and I still think he'll be better than Escobar next yaer, but that's a nice non-trade for this team, I think.

You wanted Tulo but did you want to give up Sano for him?  

[Vanimal46]

 

You wanted Tulo but did you want to give up Sano for him?  

 

Sano wasn't necessary to get Tulo at the time. We'll never know the real "offer" if there was any from the Twins, but Sano and Buxton certainly didn't need to be involved to get him from the Rockies.

 

Dr. Vanimal gives this team a C+. On August 1st the grade was an F, but Jepsen turned out to be a pleasant surprise. They still failed to acquire additional arms and depth needed to be in a better spot than they're at today. 

 

Full disclosure: I was in camp #1 from the OP, and pro-Tulo on acquiring him. 

[nicksaviking]

I didn't want to give up value for vets on long term deals.  I was also ready to ride the 2015 season down the drain, which is where it looked to be headed at the time.  Glad the season turned back around.

 

Still, I'm glad they didn't get any vets on long term deals, however if they were going to upgrade the bullpen with Jepsen, they should have gone all out on the pen and done a quick overhaul with strong arms who wouldn't cost much.  The Twins missed the boat letting the Cardinals get both Jon Broxton and Steve Cishek when both were basically salary dumps.  This team still has to turn to Fien and Boyer and only trusts about five guys in the pen in close games. 

[TheLeviathan]

Probably a B for me. Liked Jepsen well enough at the time and the results have been very good. I ding them for not adding another arm and sooner.

[Kwak]

Not included in the discussion:  the immediate negative effect on the team when they perceived management was writing them off as a construction project.  There were losses that "didn't have to be".  Contrast to the effect on Toronto after the trades--gigantic.  Fortunately Molitor and the field staff were able to change attitudes and turn everything around.  This team was ready to implode after the NYY series and somehow managed a six-game winning streak saving the season--a result not obtained by the Front Office and their "personnel decisions".  

 

There is much more happening than "trades".

[TheLeviathan]

Probably a B for me. I was on board with Jepsen and he had exceeded my expectations. But they needed more bullpen help and sooner, thats my knock on them.

[Mike Sixel]

You wanted Tulo but did you want to give up Sano for him?

Not sure what this has to do with anything at all in this thread.

[DaveW]

 

 There wasn't any catching upgrades out there 

AJ?

[Danchat]

The only reason why I didn't like the Jepsen trade was because Jepsen didn't look like an 8th inning pitcher. 

 

I've been genuinely surprised by Jepsen's spectacular performance so far, and now I'm a big fan of the trade. I suspected he would decline but he's done anything but. I'm fine with giving up Tapia and Hu for a Jepsen at his best.

 

Now, if they could have gotten Cotts a month or earlier...

[Brock Beauchamp]

C+/B-.

 

Ultimately, I like where the team ended up, I merely wanted them to get there 4-6 weeks earlier. That's my biggest sticking point with the deadline. The problems were there in early May yet very little was done to patch any of the holes until July 31st.

[nicksaviking]

C+/B-.

 

Ultimately, I like where the team ended up, I merely wanted them to get there 4-6 weeks earlier. That's my biggest sticking point with the deadline. The problems were there in early May yet very little was done to patch any of the holes until July 31st.

I agree, if the team was intent on competing, the pen should have been fixed earlier.

 

Still, could they have gotten Jepsen four weeks earlier? TB was still in contention. Probably had to be done in the off season or pre season. I'd guess the Twins will be thinking about that come November.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I give it a solid Meh......another arm and AJ would have been moved to a solid NICE for me. I wanted Tulowitzki......and I still think he'll be better than Escobar next yaer, but that's a nice non-trade for this team, I think.

 

But will Tulo be 10 times better than Esco next year?  Because he's going to be 10 times as expensive...

 

I have to think you can find a better use for 18 million dollars than "upgrading" from Esco to Tulo.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Sano wasn't necessary to get Tulo at the time. We'll never know the real "offer" if there was any from the Twins, but Sano and Buxton certainly didn't need to be involved to get him from the Rockies.

 

Dr. Vanimal gives this team a C+. On August 1st the grade was an F, but Jepsen turned out to be a pleasant surprise. They still failed to acquire additional arms and depth needed to be in a better spot than they're at today. 

 

Full disclosure: I was in camp #1 from the OP, and pro-Tulo on acquiring him. 

 

Do we know it wouldn't have taken Buxton or Sano?  I've not seen anything either confirming or denying this.  Let's say it wouldn't, aren't we talking Gibson or Berrios, plus Polanco or Kepler, plus something else?  I'm not exactly excited about that trade either...

[Riverbrian]

Yep... I'll join the chorus. 

 

I agree that we needed a catcher but I'm not convinced that our catching cost us wins. But I am convinced that the Bullpen has cost us wins. 

 

Jepsen was great but I felt that we needed an infusion of 3 strong arms for the bullpen. Getting 1 at the deadline and an OK guy in August didn't and doesn't cut it for me. 

 

I'm not ready to throw furniture around in the front office but yeah... We needed a strengthening of the pen and we still need it. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree, if the team was intent on competing, the pen should have been fixed earlier.

Still, could they have gotten Jepsen four weeks earlier? TB was still in contention. Probably had to be done in the off season or pre season. I'd guess the Twins will be thinking about that come November.

Not Jepsen, no... But they certainly could have done more with the pen.

 

I will never understand why they were so reluctant to give Oliveros a shot and instead moved him into the Rochester rotation where his season quickly unraveled.

[gunnarthor]

 

Do we know it wouldn't have taken Buxton or Sano?  I've not seen anything either confirming or denying this.  Let's say it wouldn't, aren't we talking Gibson or Berrios, plus Polanco or Kepler, plus something else?  I'm not exactly excited about that trade either...

Yeah, according to the rumors Colorado wanted Sano (they knew Buxton was off the table).  They also wanted ground ball pitchers so Gibson was mentioned but Berrios would have been a bad fit for them.  And, of course, Tulo's salary made all of this academic.  But I don't think the Twins really had a package that could have beaten Toronto's - 2 20 year old pitchers with electric arms and a 22 year old top 100/50 prospect (depending on the list), all of whom profile as good ground ball pitchers.  And Jose Reyes, who is either a salary dump or a good player who could replace Tulo, depending on what spin you accept.  Outside of Sano and maybe Gibson, who really excites you for Colorado?  Berrios is a fly ball pitcher, the other Twins pitchers had big set backs.  They apparently weren't looking for bats, unless it was a difference maker.  They wanted young players to go with a potentially pretty good nucleus coming up. 

[Vanimal46]

Do we know it wouldn't have taken Buxton or Sano? I've not seen anything either confirming or denying this. Let's say it wouldn't, aren't we talking Gibson or Berrios, plus Polanco or Kepler, plus something else? I'm not exactly excited about that trade either...

We don't know for sure. You and I both know trade offers are rarely made public knowledge.

 

However Tulo was discussed at length on this site, where Jeremy posted that the Rockies inquired about Gibson. The trade offer that was generally agreed upon was Gibson, Polanco + Kepler or ABW for Tulo. I would have pulled the trigger on a deal like that.

 

That's coming from armchair GMs on TD, and of course nothing but speculation.

[Seth Stohs]

We don't know anything except whatever happened. Rumors are just rumors. We know they likely talked to lots of teams, and there were several names thrown around. 

[nicksaviking]

 

 

I will never understand why they were so reluctant to give Oliveros a shot and instead moved him into the Rochester rotation where his season quickly unraveled.

 

Yeah, the Oliveros situation was disappointing.  My only guess is that the Twins didn't like him because they thought too much of Delmon Young rubbed off on him when they brushed shoulders during the exchange of hostages.

 

That's how trades work right?

[arkyvaughan]

I think its early to give a grade because the season is still on-going. So I keep wavering but I am going to give them a D grade.

 

At the deadline clubs needs to decide to sell expiring contracts,. spare parts etc for pieces they hope will be part of a future playoff team. Or they decide to add pieces for a playoff push.

 

In the Twins' case the moves they made appear to have been inadequate to get them to the playoffs. I believe it was possible to make the additional moves that may have gotten them to the playoffs with out sacrificing too much of the future.

 

 

I wavered giving them a slightly better grade - say a C- due to the fact that Jepsen will be around next year

 

Ultimately though they failed to make the playoffs and they gave up a couple A ball arms - if you are not going to make the playoffs anyway - couldn't you get Jepsen type relievers for cheap in the off season?

[Major League Ready]

I give it a solid Meh......another arm and AJ would have been moved to a solid NICE for me. I wanted Tulowitzki......and I still think he'll be better than Escobar next yaer, but that's a nice non-trade for this team, I think.

 

 

I give it a solid Meh......another arm and AJ would have been moved to a solid NICE for me. I wanted Tulowitzki......and I still think he'll be better than Escobar next yaer, but that's a nice non-trade for this team, I think.

 

You are overlooking some very significant variables.  The appropriate measure is not Tulo vs Escobar next year.   The measure is Tulo vs Escobar + whatever FA assets they can get with 20M/yr + whatever the assets we would have given up would contribute going forward.  That of course is unknown but the players received in that trade project to add considerably more value over the course of the six yrs of control for them vs an aging shortstop over the next 5 yrs.  

 

I will take Escobar and go buy a great bullpen + our equivalent to Hoffman + Castro + Tinoco over Tulo and it is not even close.   I would bet that Hoffman alone has a higher WAR over his 6 yrs of control than Tulo does over the next 5 yrs.  Spend the $20M wisely on  FAs and it’s not even remotely close and we still have not mention Castro who at a minimum looks like a great candidate as a closer.

 

Short-term thinking is a good way to build a perennial loser.

[DaveW]

I still haven't heard a good reason why they couldn't help the catching position, you don't even need to get a starter like AJ, they could have at least gotten a halfway decent backup. Because trotting out Herrmann and Fryer, two guys that can't hit or throw out a runner to save their lives as your backups is embarassing and a big reason why Kurt was over worked most of the year.

[Mike Sixel]

But will Tulo be 10 times better than Esco next year?  Because he's going to be 10 times as expensive...

 

I have to think you can find a better use for 18 million dollars than "upgrading" from Esco to Tulo.

Again, what does this have to do with the thread? We have hundreds of posts on the Tulo non-deal, I don't want to re-type my thoughts.

[SwainZag]

 

I still haven't heard a good reason why they couldn't help the catching position, you don't even need to get a starter like AJ, they could have at least gotten a halfway decent backup. Because trotting out Herrmann and Fryer, two guys that can't hit or throw out a runner to save their lives as your backups is embarassing and a big reason why Kurt was over worked most of the year.

 

Not arguing your point, neither hit, but Hermann did throw out 7/17 which is 41%.  Fryer only had one attempt against him all season.

[Loosey]

As the OP I am actually going to change my grade from a B+ to a B/B- after reading some of the comments.  We are allowed to do that right???? 

 

My main reasoning is due to the fact that Twins waited until the deadline to add obviously needed BP help and the fact they didn't get anymore.  I agree it should have been a complete overhaul for the most part.

 

I was in the boat that a catcher was needed, but since August 1 Suzuki has actually played better than his career average.  AJ was the guy a lot on TD were throwing out as a potential target, but here is how the two compare:

 

Suzuki:  .271  .327  .354  .681

Pierzynski: .309  .347  .419  .766

 

AJ probably would have helped the offense for sure and either would have been a VERY GOOD backup when you compare to either Herrman or Fryer.  Would he have been enough to get the Twins an extra win?  So I am torn on the no moves for a catcher.  If I was convinced I would give the grade a solid B-, but because I am not I am in limbo between a B/B-.  

 

Still better than the D I gave them at the deadline.