Article: Price Dropping For Intriguing Trade Target

[David HK]

I'd love to see Storen in the Twinks pen.  Shoot, I would have loved that a couple of years ago, when it was possible.

 

But, on a side note-  gotta love how everyone and their brother, at prediction time this past spring, practically handed the World Series to the Nats---

 

Oops.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

1. Publicly blasts management for trying to make the team better.

2. Proceeds to play poorly when he is given a new role on the team.

3. Throws a temper tantrum where he injures his pitching hand.

4. Will be a free agent in one season.

5. Will be coming off an injury with no time to prove health for upcoming season.

These are all reasons that the cost to obtain Storen figures to be much lower than you'd normally expect for a player with his ability. It's a risk worth taking IMO. 

 

Also, for all the people concerned that Storen will be pouty and ineffective if he's not in the closer role... he's been operating as a setup man for the Nats for the past three years (behind Soriano and Clippard) and has posted a 2.79 ERA during that span. 

[TheLeviathan]

It's funny to hear people slamming a potential closer/reliever for "pouting" and being a bad teammate given who our current closer is.

 

Sometimes a guy being upset is just passion for what he does.  I think it's ok to go out and target that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Whether you believe he should be or not, he is. I assure you of that. 

Also, Perkins' numbers are good across the board, going well beyond saves. The late-season physical breakdowns in two straight years are perturbing though, which is a big part of the season I feel they need to go get another top-tier late-inning arm if they have true championship aspirations next year. 

Perkins in entrenched as the closer provided he doesn't implode... And I'm okay with that.

 

Given the role of the "closer" in baseball, I've come to the opinion your best reliever should not be the closer. Coming into a fresh inning with the bases empty and a 2-3 run lead is going to result in a win the vast majority of the time with even a mediocre guy in the closer role.

 

So if no one in baseball is going to use a true Bullpen Ace model, the best guy on the staff should be used in the seventh or eighth innings depending on the game, ready to come in with runners on base during a critical situation (or even a fresh inning with the heart of the lineup coming to the plate). Put your second-best guy in the "closer" role and go with a quasi bullpen ace model.

[birddog]

TR proved most of us wrong with his deadline acquisition of Jepsen. He didn't panic and give away young talent to land a SS and C, and Escobar and Suzuki have responded. I know there are a lot of TR bashers here in TD land, but in spite of the bad luck we've had with our free agent SP's--and I believe it is bad luck and not bad signings except for Hughes' extension--he has done a decent job of turning this team around. We knew it wouldn't happen overnight. He knows talent, he knows the Twins needs, and he knows what other teams covet. He may make a trade for Storen if the price is right, but if they are asking a king's ransom he will find a better way to improve the team.

 

It will be an interesting and busy off-season for TR, but I am confident he is the right man to make the Twins even better for next year and the future.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Price and Value are two different things.  If we are saying his price has gone down while his value has remained unchanged, it seems like a good deal.

 

Are we really saying that his value is unchanged?

[d-mac]

No. Please, no more trades for bullpen arms. 

[Thegrin]

Never never ever go to the free market to get an established closer.  The money they get is not worth it.

Always try to get a guy that has the potential to close.  The price is closer to right and he is in your BP if you need a closer.  See Nathan. Rauch. Perkins. Jepsom.

[gunnarthor]

Federalbaseball, the Nats TwinkieTown equivalent seems to think Storen won't be back - too many bridges burned.  I think the price for Storen won't be that high - he has the injury so the Nats won't get to showcase him healthy.  A deal somewhat similar to Jepsen might be enough - and the Nats and Twins certainly have been willing to trade before.  The Twins also, IIRC, have a tradeable draft pick after the second round, which they could throw in for him.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Federalbaseball, the Nats TwinkieTown equivalent seems to think Storen won't be back - too many bridges burned.  I think the price for Storen won't be that high - he has the injury so the Nats won't get to showcase him healthy.  A deal somewhat similar to Jepsen might be enough - and the Nats and Twins certainly have been willing to trade before.  The Twins also, IIRC, have a tradeable draft pick after the second round, which they could throw in for him.  

There is going to be a shake-up in Washington, but I think it will be higher up than the bullpen.  (In fact one of the reasons for the shake-up will probably be their managing of Storen and the pen in general.)  Papelbon will still be in the picture, but their new manager and coaches may not have the same issues with Storen.  Even if it's not all lollipops and sunshine, the relationship might be repaired enough to allow them a healthy showcase for Storen in 2016.

 

For all the Nationals and Storen have struggled recently, he still has a career-best 11 K/9 on the season, as compared to Jepsen's career-low 7.3 in Tampa.  Storen also has a notably better walk rate and is a full 3 years younger, for those that note the connection between age and velocity.  He was also 29-for-31 in save opportunities, with a 1.73 ERA, when he was replaced at closer, for what it's worth.

 

What do you think a deal similar to Jepsen's look like, in terms of Twins prospects now?  Just eyeballing prospect lists, and the closest level/rank comparable to Hu might be Gonsalves.  I wouldn't do that when I could just sign a decent FA setup man in the 3/15 range (Storen's final arb season may cost $7 mil anyway).

[gunnarthor]

 

What do you think a deal similar to Jepsen's look like, in terms of Twins prospects now?  Just eyeballing prospect lists, and the closest level/rank comparable to Hu might be Gonsalves.  I wouldn't do that when I could just sign a decent FA setup man in the 3/15 range (Storen's final arb season may cost $7 mil anyway).

Yeah, Gonsalves for Storen straight up might be pretty close to the Jepsen trade (Storen's a bit better but less team control).  I'd probably be ok with that although I don't know what the FA relief pitcher market looks like. 

 

That said, I was thinking something more like Storen for our 2nd round pick and a lesser prospect (Jake Reed, maybe).

 

 

[h2oface]

Perkins is only reliable in the first half of a season, especially as he continues to believe that he doesn't need to get himself in great shape, but just kinda workout in the off season. One may as well plan for his softness to fade

now, and be ready to replace his role after the all-star break.

[DaveW]

Perkins is only reliable in the first half of a season, especially as he continues to believe that he doesn't need to get himself in great shape, but just kinda workout in the off season.

Scorching Hot Takes can't melt steel beams.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FA relievers, just from the trade deadline: Mark Lowe, Tommy Hunter, Joaquim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Jonathan Broxton (mutual option)

 

Others include Shawn Kelley, Darren O'Day, Antonio Bastardo.

 

There are a few more with club options, etc.

 

If the Twins want, they should be able to score one of these guys for Neshek/Gregerson type money.

[nicksaviking]

 

Perkins is only reliable in the first half of a season, especially as he continues to believe that he doesn't need to get himself in great shape, but just kinda workout in the off season. One may as well plan for his softness to fade

now, and be ready to replace his role after the all-star break.

 

I think we're making assumptions on this one.  From my 20 years experience with a bad back, you never can tell when it's going to give you issues.  Mine would lock up on me and put me out of commission even when I was a highly trained athlete back when I was a teenager.

 

It's possible he's out of shape, but last year his issue was a forearm strain which doesn't seem like it would have much to do with conditioning.  If I were to make an assumption, it would be that he's 32 and on the backside of his career.  Age tends to rob pitchers of their most needed physical attributes before it does the hitters.

[pogofan]

"...who has spent his entire career pitching well in high-leverage situations, the last few weeks notwithstanding."

 

The folks here in the Washington area would beg to differ.  In the deciding game 5 of the 2012 NLDS, Storen entered the 9th with a 7-5 lead (at home); three hits and two walks later, the Cardinals had scored 4 runs (all with two outs, down to their last strike on 5 different pitches).

 

In game 2 of the 2014 NLDS, Storen entered with two outs in the 9th and a runner on first, gave up a single and a double that tied the game, and the Nats went on to lose in 18 innings.

 

Last Tuesday, in a must-win game to get back within 4 of the Mets, with a 7-1 lead in the seventh inning, Storen completed a 6-run bullpen meltdown that tied the game.  (The Mets' winning run came on a homer surrendered by closer Papelbon in the 8th.)  Again, all the runs scored with two outs.  Storen entered with the bases loaded and the score 7-3, thanks to two previous singles and three (!) walks; he started off with the bases-clearing double to Cespedes that brought the score to 7-6, then yielded three MORE walks (with a wild pitch mixed in) to score Cespedes and tie the game.

 

After that disaster, I'm not surprised he lost his temper and ended up breaking his thumb.  That game was probably the most devastating baseball loss I have ever watched.

 

I'm not saying Storen's a bad guy or even a bad pitcher; for all I know, a change of scene might be all he needs to be the second coming of Mariano Rivera.  But no way in hell can he be described as someone who has spent his career pitching well in high-leverage situations---at least not those with the highest stakes.

[Mike Rose]

You know, it wouldn't be illegal to have dual "closers" next year, with Perk used if tough lefties are coming up and Storen used for righties. The whole idea of a single "closer" is pretty antiquated anyways...a smart manager should use his bullpen based on matchups and game situations. A 'pen featuring May (possibly, unless he starts again), Jepsen, Perk and Storen offers some intriguing end-of-game options. As long as Storen would be OK sharing the role (in Washington, there was no talk of sharing...Papelbon took the role outright), I think the Twins could have a pretty solid group for innings 7-9, with Perk and Storen each getting maybe 15-25 saves, and Jepsen possibly getting a few, too.

[Cychotic]

 

Perkins in entrenched as the closer provided he doesn't implode... And I'm okay with that.

 

Given the role of the "closer" in baseball, I've come to the opinion your best reliever should not be the closer. Coming into a fresh inning with the bases empty and a 2-3 run lead is going to result in a win the vast majority of the time with even a mediocre guy in the closer role.

 

So if no one in baseball is going to use a true Bullpen Ace model, the best guy on the staff should be used in the seventh or eighth innings depending on the game, ready to come in with runners on base during a critical situation (or even a fresh inning with the heart of the lineup coming to the plate). Put your second-best guy in the "closer" role and go with a quasi bullpen ace model.

Isn't this pretty much what Kansas City does?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Isn't this pretty much what Kansas City does?

Not really during the regular season.  Davis is clearly the "8th inning guy" rather than a strategically deployed Bullpen Ace as Brock described.  Their closer is considered a worse pitcher than their setup guy, but that's more an accident of seniority and isn't uncommon around the league.

 

Of course, KC's "7th inning guys" are so strong right now, it probably doesn't matter all that much to them.  But the Bullpen Ace model could benefit teams with a weaker pen, where you don't necessarily want to rely on Fien/Boyer to get critical outs, nor do you want to waste perhaps your only shutdown guy on a lot of garden-variety 9th inning, bases empty save situations.

[ashbury]

The issue as always is money. Relievers feel they get paid better (arbitration, which radiates to other non-FA contracts) when they rack up gaudy Save numbers. And players always are keeping an eye toward the next contract. Yes, even Saint Perk.