Article: Long Range: The New Twins Outfield

[Dantes929]

 

I'm really not worried about Rosario, not every guy who is successful has to fit a certain mold.  The guy has an edge to his game and tremendous plate coverage with his swing.  He should work a bit on drawing more walks but he's nowhere close to the concern Danny Santana was.

 

The Twins need to decide who the odd man out is this offseason - Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, or Kepler and aggressively shop them this offseason.

I am ok with shopping anyone but do not see the urgency in deciding this offseason who the odd man is.    I am fine with keeping them all.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Can't do it. He has used his last option this year. If he doesn't make the Twins, they would have to DFA him to get him to Rochester and with the success he had the last two years, someone would claim him.

Ahh, I see, I forgot that. ****. Ok, in that case, what the hell. Give him a shot at starting DH.

[dxpavelka]

I'm as big a fan of both Hicks & Rosario as you're going to find.  I was calling for Rosario to be promoted for a year and a half before it happened and was one of the few folks around these parts not wanting to move on from Hicks the last 2 years.  That being said, I think the need for bats will/should outweigh the desire for stellar corner defense over the next couple years.  This is a team that ranks no higher than 11th in the big leagues in any significant offensive category and in in the twenties in most categories.  We realistically have 1 guy who can be classified as a legitimate all-star caliber hitter at this point and he's got less than 200 big league at bats under his belt.  Our 1B lacks power, our 2B would be ecstatic if he could hit .250, our SS projects to be a journeyman for the next few years, Neither Hicks nor Rosario drive in significant runs.  Our CF has been compared to Mike Trout but has a LONG way to go to get to that point and most likely never will from a power standpoint.  I love both guys and love having a great defensive outfield but if you can't score runs you won't win. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm as big a fan of both Hicks & ........ I love both guys and love having a great defensive outfield but if you can't score runs you won't win. 

 

Excellent point about the offensive holes elsewhere maybe influencing their decisions in the OF.....

[rghrbek]

Per a tweet by gleeman:

"Eddie Rosario has 1 walk and 43 strikeouts in his last 33 games. For the year he has 11 walks, 101 strikeouts, and a .286 OBP in 101 games".

 

Rosario is far from a finished product, but having good plate coverage does not help much if your OBP is .286.  Obviously we can hope for a learning curve here, but I am less confident that Rosario (based on his last few years in minors) projects to do too much more than this.  I'd certainly be willing to wait and see on him, but I wouldn't be opposed to moving him before Hicks though.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm not ready to trade anyone there right now unless I get blown away (other than Plouffe).  Buxton isn't ready.  He needs some AAA time in 2016.  Arcia would be selling low and is out of options.  Kepler is on the rise, and I'd be OK with him in RF on opening day or in AAA.  I'd probably trade Plouffe, move Sano to 3B, install Arcia as the primary DH, and roll with Kepler in RF (or roll with Arcia in RF with Vargas DHing).  I'd target a 4th OF FA on a 1 year deal who won't be a horrible plan B if both Buxton, Arcia, and Kepler struggle.

Count me onboard with this thinking.  The ideal scenario is one of them gets traded once Kepler is up an establishes he can play at the ML level.  That also gives us some time to see if Rosario can demonstrate some plate discipline.  Scouts  already have his MO and the pitchers are adjusting.  If he continues with the current approach, nobody is going to throw him strikes.  He has great hands but you can't do much when you are constantly 0-2 or 1-2 and fighting of breaking pitches off the plate of in the dirt.

 

Hicks keeps getting better as a LH hitter and he is already darn good as a RH hitter.  He has a high OBP and offers great flexibility in the lineup against LH pitching.  However, Hicks has greater value as a CF and would bring a greater return.  I think this one does not play out until the deadline of even the 2016 off-season unless Ryan gets an offer he can't refuse.

 

I look forward to watching this play out.

Edited September 9, 2015 by Major Leauge Ready

[dbminn]

 

On the upside, the three young Twins outfielders have potential to dominate the game as a group. They could easily combine for 60HR / 60SB per year while playing well above average defense. Not many outfields have that kind of production.

 

In reality, they may not all develop like we hope. Kepler adds depth to the OF for the future. I really don't want the Twins to trade any of the four this offseason. If they make a deal that includes an OF, I would trade Rosario. I prefer Kepler's K/BB ratio.

 

You don't have to lead the league in offense if the other parts of the game are very good. According to FanGraphs, the Pirates, Cardinals and the Cubs(!)  - are ranked high in pitching and defense and are middle of the pack offensively. The Royals are the only team ranked high in every category.

 

Granted, the Astros, Blue Jays and Yankees are slugging. But you don't have to hit home runs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Royals are all ranked 20th or lower. This year's Twins are ranked 17th in HR.

[Loosey]

I think you keep all 4-5 outfield prospects through next year.  Worst case scenario is one of more of them fails and their value plummets to a point where you can't get anything for them.  Best case scenario is all of them turn into starter caliber OF's and their value increases and the Twins can then trade the worst good outfielder for help.

 

At this point I don't think they will get the help you need elsewhere for either Rosario, Hicks or Kepler.  Buxton is the only one who would get you a good haul, but he isn't going anywhere.  My thoughts are wait until next offseason.

[drjim]

 

I'm really not worried about Rosario, not every guy who is successful has to fit a certain mold.  The guy has an edge to his game and tremendous plate coverage with his swing.  He should work a bit on drawing more walks but he's nowhere close to the concern Danny Santana was.

 

The Twins need to decide who the odd man out is this offseason - Hicks, Rosario, Buxton, or Kepler and aggressively shop them this offseason.

 

Why the urgency? Good chance that 2 of the 4 start at Rochester next year and also a good chance that any of them could bust. Good to have quality depth.

[nytwinsfan]

 

We realistically have 1 guy who can be classified as a legitimate all-star caliber hitter at this point and he's got less than 200 big league at bats under his belt.  Our 1B lacks power, our 2B would be ecstatic if he could hit .250, our SS projects to be a journeyman for the next few years, Neither Hicks nor Rosario drive in significant runs.  Our CF has been compared to Mike Trout but has a LONG way to go to get to that point and most likely never will from a power standpoint.  I love both guys and love having a great defensive outfield but if you can't score runs you won't win. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Why the urgency? Good chance that 2 of the 4 start at Rochester next year and also a good chance that any of them could bust. Good to have quality depth.

 

Aggressive shopping doesn't mean you are forced to sell, it just means you make it known what assets you have that can move.  It isn't urgency, just being prudent with your assets when you have several with intriguing trade value.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Per a tweet by gleeman:

"Eddie Rosario has 1 walk and 43 strikeouts in his last 33 games. For the year he has 11 walks, 101 strikeouts, and a .286 OBP in 101 games".

 

Rosario is far from a finished product, but having good plate coverage does not help much if your OBP is .286.  Obviously we can hope for a learning curve here, but I am less confident that Rosario (based on his last few years in minors) projects to do too much more than this.  I'd certainly be willing to wait and see on him, but I wouldn't be opposed to moving him before Hicks though.

 

I don't get people putting Hicks over Rosario.  Rosario was a slightly better minor league player, has performed much better as a major league player from the outset, and seems to have that "it" factor as a player that Hicks is only now (finally) showing any signs of.

 

Rosario does need to improve his plate discipline, but he's also a league average OF for OPS as a rookie with outstanding defense.  It's taken Hicks three years of fumbling to get to the point where we can even consider him league average. 

 

Rosario isn't a finished product, but his minor league track record supports the idea that this is the type of player he can be.  Now it's up to our coaches to help him get even better.

[drjim]

I agree on Rosario. I think people will underrate some of his value because he is not a conventional hitter both on poor bb/k rate and power from 3Bs and 2Bs.

 

Good on defense, value on the basepaths and hitterish.

 

His big asjustment will be dropping his k rate more than increasing his bb rate. I think that is doable.

[HitInAPinch]

 

LOL. Obviously everyone realizes Buxton is going to have to hit (and walk) more. Yes, he might need to start at AAA next season, but obviously that wouldn't be "just like Hicks." Hicks was 25 when he had his third trip to AAA. Buxton will be 22.

Trips not age! 

[DJL44]

How about this alignment to start 2016?

 

1B Mauer

2B Dozier

3B Plouffe

SS Escobar

LF Rosario

CF Hicks

RF Sano (can rotate to 1B and 3B also)

DH Vargas

UT Danny Santana (can play infield or outfield)

C Suzuki

C TBD (I like Wieters as a starter or Brayan Pena as a platoon partner)

OF/DH - Arcia

 

AAA outfield depth - Walker, Buxton and Kepler,

AAA infield depth - Jorge Polanco, Levi Michael

 

Buxton should force his way up fairly quickly and Kepler may also but neither has spent much time in AAA.

[ashbury]

Sano isn't going to play RF, much less be the starter there. Book it.

[formerly33]

 

Sano isn't going to play RF, much less be the starter there. Book it.

Booked.

 

[drjim]

Sano isn't going to play RF, much less be the starter there. Book it.

Is this a guarantee of a Plouffe trade?

[twinssouth]

I worry that the Twins will do something stupid like trade Kepler for someone we never heard of. Outside of Buxton, Kep may end up being the best of the bunch. His swing is something to behold.

[ashbury]

Is this a guarantee of a Plouffe trade?

It's a statement of the negatives outweighing the positives. He's never played an inning out there and I don't see the braintrust throwing him that kind of curve.

[drjim]

It's a statement of the negatives outweighing the positives. He's never played an inning out there and I don't see the braintrust throwing him that kind of curve.

With an offseason and spring I could see it.

 

I'm skeptical they go into the season with a locked in DH, especially if they want Buxton to start in AAA. Most likely move is a Plouffe trade.

[BoomBoom]

Rosario will be just fine.  I find it funny that people always talk about pitchers making adjustments to hitters because they've found their flaw.  What are hitting coaches getting paid for?  Don't they help hitters find flaws in pitchers as well.  Can't hitters grow in their capacity as hitters.  It might be easier for a pitcher to adjust, but damn, I never hear people talking about how they expect a certain hitter should improve in his second year.  Rosario is a hitter and will be fine.

 

Am I the only one who thinks this way:  [Picture this] Batter is about to come to the plate with dangerous power and the pitching coach comes to the mound to explain how to pitch to the young slugger.  Meanwhile the said batter stands near the plate wondering what might be the new strategy?  The hitting coaches never call the kid over and say BLAH BLAH BLAH and expect them to attack BLAH BLAH BLAH.  In baseball it's always "figure it out", never a plan within the plan from the coaches?   At least it appears that way on TV or when I go to games.  Kids just stand near the plate during pitching changes and wonder who is coming in or what is the new approach from the pitcher based on mound visit.  They never show coaches talking to players like in basketball or football about strategy.  Not even on camera.  Am I wrong?

[Steve Penz]

 

Rosario will be just fine.  I find it funny that people always talk about pitchers making adjustments to hitters because they've found their flaw.  What are hitting coaches getting paid for?  Don't they help hitters find flaws in pitchers as well.  Can't hitters grow in their capacity as hitters.  It might be easier for a pitcher to adjust, but damn, I never hear people talking about how they expect a certain hitter should improve in his second year.  Rosario is a hitter and will be fine.

 

Am I the only one who thinks this way:  [Picture this] Batter is about to come to the plate with dangerous power and the pitching coach comes to the mound to explain how to pitch to the young slugger.  Meanwhile the said batter stands near the plate wondering what might be the new strategy?  The hitting coaches never call the kid over and say BLAH BLAH BLAH and expect them to attack BLAH BLAH BLAH.  In baseball it's always "figure it out", never a plan within the plan from the coaches?   At least it appears that way on TV or when I go to games.  Kids just stand near the plate during pitching changes and wonder who is coming in or what is the new approach from the pitcher based on mound visit.  They never show coaches talking to players like in basketball or football about strategy.  Not even on camera.  Am I wrong?"

 

 

 

 

I hope you are right.  Rosario is currently at 101 so / 12 bb and his OBP is .285.  At approx the same age Torii Hunter had and OBP of 309 and so/bb was 72/26.  It just seems that Rosario has a much longer way to go.  He and Bruno need to move in together this winter.