Apologize to Bill Smith Thread

[Boom Boom]

I was wrong, Bill. You get all the credit for signing Miguel Sano, the best Twins hitter since Killebrew.

 

Mistakes were made, but to a large degree you've been vindicated, and I apologize.

[DaveW]

Ryan never would have had the guts to pull the trigger on Sano. Smith wasn't great, but the Sano signing and his drafts set up the twins for success in the future.

[TheLeviathan]

People can live in denial about it, but there is no question in my mind that Sano would be marveling some other bunch of fans if Ryan was in charge back then.

 

Every time he crushes the ball I thank Bill Smith again.

[DaveW]

People can live in denial about it, but there is no question in my mind that Sano would be marveling some other bunch of fans if Ryan was in charge back then.

 

Every time he crushes the ball I thank Bill Smith again.

100% agreed.

[Mike Sixel]

Good luck with this thread......I've been beating that drum for a while now, and people won't do it.

 

They love Kepler and Polanco too, the only time the Twins have really gone way over and spent money, and somehow they think that is a coincidence that they did it when Ryan was not GM.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought Smith did a pretty okay job with everything that didn't involve MLB trades. He's unfairly criticized by Twins fans. He picked up some valuable pieces in the draft and international market... Too bad his MLB trading history was such a colossal train wreck.

[drjim]

 

I thought Smith did a pretty okay job with everything that didn't involve MLB trades. He's unfairly criticized by Twins fans. He picked up some valuable pieces in the draft and international market... Too bad his MLB trading history was such a colossal train wreck.

 

He was actually good at adding bit mlb players in trades, useless at trading them away, and brutal at managing the most important assets.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I thought Smith did a pretty okay job with everything that didn't involve MLB trades. He's unfairly criticized by Twins fans. He picked up some valuable pieces in the draft and international market... Too bad his MLB trading history was such a colossal train wreck.

 

Pretty much this.  Smith would have traded Sano for a couple of relief pitchers if he was still in charge... 

[drjim]

My other thought on the issue at hand, Smith was GM for 4 international signing periods, why did he only do this once?

 

I'm not going to argue Ryan would have signed Sano, but in the last several years he has outspent the other 3 Smith signing periods.

 

Sano was always a unique signing for a whole lot of reasons. The Polance/Kepler signings fell within budget, I think Ryan would have signed off on those.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He was actually good at adding bit mlb players in trades, useless at trading them away, and brutal at managing the most important assets.

Yup.  In a perfect world, we'd have Smith in charge of high-profile international prospect bidding and minor leaguers outside the top X prospects, occasionally spinning them into useful pieces for TR who would be in charge of most everything else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He was actually good at adding bit mlb players in trades, useless at trading them away, and brutal at managing the most important assets.

Yeah, that's fair.

[drjim]

 

Yup.  In a perfect world, we'd have Smith in charge of high-profile international prospect bidding and minor leaguers outside the top X prospects, occasionally spinning them into useful pieces for TR who would be in charge of most everything else.

 

I actually think Smith is right where he should be, managing facilities in Fort Myers.

 

Twins can probably do much better than Smith (and Ryan) when it comes to international signings.

 

Though Ryan did sign off on the biggest Twins outlay ever for an international guy, so who knows.

[clutterheart]

One thing I liked about Smith was he was willing to spend Ownership's money.   I think its clear that Ryan would've never signed Kepler Sano & Polanco.  He just wouldn'tve spent that money.

 

Smith was not fired because he was bad at trading players.  (Which he was)  He was fired because he planed to spend a lot of money to keep the team competitive.  

 

The timeline:

Ownership got a huge windfall after tax payers funded a stadium

The team struggled

Ownership gave Smith a public vote of confidence

Bill Smith presented his offseason plans to ownership

He was fired

Ryan was rehired

Ryan dumped everyone he could.

Twins Sucked

Ownership reaped lots of revenue through tax payer funded stadium despite a bad team

Ryan rebuilt through high draft picks and the international signings that Smith spent money on.

[drjim]

 

One thing I liked about Smith was he was willing to spend Ownership's money.   I think its clear that Ryan would've never signed Kepler Sano & Polanco.  He just wouldn'tve spent that money.

 

Smith was not fired because he was bad at trading players.  (Which he was)  He was fired because he planed to spend a lot of money to keep the team competitive.  

 

The timeline:

Ownership got a huge windfall after tax payers funded a stadium

The team struggled

Ownership gave Smith a public vote of confidence

Bill Smith presented his offseason plans to ownership

He was fired

Ryan was rehired

Ryan dumped everyone he could.

Twins Sucked

Ownership reaped lots of revenue through tax payer funded stadium despite a bad team

Ryan rebuilt through high draft picks and the international signings that Smith spent money on.

 

A couple thoughts on this.

 

-I still think 63 wins and an organization in bad shape was the most significant aspect of the firing.

 

-Dumping players and losing resulted in much less money for the Pohlads than spending money and winning would have. 

 

-Polanco and Kepler were not that big of outlays and they fell within the typical international budget at the time. Why would Ryan not spend that? He spent on international guys before and since, including spending more on Javier this period than any international signing in Twins history.

[Loosey]

Looking back on Bill Smith's tenure he did do a lot of good things for the club.  His problem seemed to be as soon as he would make a great move, he would go out and make a mind boggling move that negated the first move.

 

Terry Ryan does neither.  He just stays the path and never deviates, occasionally adding a piece here or there he sees as undervalued.

[mickeymental]

 

-Dumping players and losing resulted in much less money for the Pohlads than spending money and winning would have. 

The problem for conservative owners is that their fear of spending money and losing trumps all else.

[Eris]

 

One thing I liked about Smith was he was willing to spend Ownership's money.   I think its clear that Ryan would've never signed Kepler Sano & Polanco.  He just wouldn'tve spent that money.

 

 

 

The Twins signed 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Wander Javier for about $4 million this past July.  How does that fit into this discussion?

 

Reality is that most GMs make both good and bad decisions and sometimes they are just lucky.  Andy MacPhail was given a lot of credit for the success of the Twins two WS championship teams, but the core of the team was drafted by Howard Fox.  

 

The greatest failures of the Twins organization, which is shared by both Smith and Ryan has to do with the inability to draft and develop top tier pitchers.  

[Mike Sixel]

If it takes 4 years for players to make the majors, and the team sucked under a GM that was here for 4 years.......is the lack of good players on him, or the previous GM? Just curious....

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins signed 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Wander Javier for about $4 million this past July.  How does that fit into this discussion?

 

Reality is that most GMs make both good and bad decisions and sometimes they are just lucky.  Andy MacPhail was given a lot of credit for the success of the Twins two WS championship teams, but the core of the team was drafted by Howard Fox.  

 

The greatest failures of the Twins organization, which is shared by both Smith and Ryan has to do with the inability to draft and develop top tier pitchers.  

 

we aren't 100% sure it was exactly 4MM, it might have been low enough to keep them under the MLB approved budget. We'll find out in a few months or so.

 

And, if he did go over budget, but only did it for 1 player, that's a really, really, really bad way to do it, imo. If you are going over, you have to go over for 2-4 players, since you are penalized next year for going over.......let's hope they are just under, or have a deal worked out with guys that can't yet sign that look elite......

[drjim]

 

If it takes 4 years for players to make the majors, and the team sucked under a GM that was here for 4 years.......is the lack of good players on him, or the previous GM? Just curious....

 

Unfortunately if you mismanage your most important assets probably doesn't matter what the previous GM did or didn't do. Hopefully that sates your curiosity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

-Polanco and Kepler were not that big of outlays and they fell within the typical international budget at the time. Why would Ryan not spend that? He spent on international guys before and since, including spending more on Javier this period than any international signing in Twins history.

Both were more than TR ever spent internationally. There was some reported competition for Kepler too. TR has had opportunities to bid in an open market for top talent and has declined to do so every time.

 

Javier was signed under a system of bonus pools and caps. Might as well say TR showed a willingness to spend on Buxton too.

[jimmer]

 

Both were more than TR ever spent internationally. There was some reported competition for Kepler too. TR has had opportunities to bid in an open market for top talent and has declined to do so every time.

Javier was signed under a system of bonus pools and caps. Might as well say TR showed a willingness to spend on Buxton too.

exactly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unfortunately if you mismanage your most important assets probably doesn't matter what the previous GM did or didn't do. Hopefully that sates your curiosity.

 

They weren't keeping Hunter or Santana, even if he keeps them for comp picks. The Garza trade was inexcusable, but other than that......what difference could he have made to that roster?

 

Like I said, no matter what, people think Smith is accountable for that awful lineup.

[bird]

 

People can live in denial about it, but there is no question in my mind that Sano would be marveling some other bunch of fans if Ryan was in charge back then.

 

Every time he crushes the ball I thank Bill Smith again.

 

 

People can live in denial about it  , but there is no question in my mind that Sano would be entertaining us had Smith never spent a day as the GM. To convince me otherwise, the following evidence would need to be presented:

 

1. Sano would never have been signed without the relationship having been built first with Sano's handlers. At any time during this relationship-building process, did Smith play even a minor role? I believe Smith would never have had a role at all without the work of the scout (Guererro?), a guy that never reported to Smith.

 

2. The decision to meet the contract demands let alone compete for Sano's services was not made by Smith, at least not in a vacuum. Smith deserves plenty of credit for influencing the decision to expand the international budget, as do a number of others. Can anyone provide evidence that Smith was even one of the more important influencers in this decision to increase international spending, let alone the only one?

 

3. The early contract negotiations with Sano's people were spearheaded by the international scout with the relationship, not by Smith. This was a $3.4M decision. Can anyone demonstrate to us that Smith was the key driver? Are you willing to argue that the final decision to cut the check was made by someone other than Pohlad?

 

Give Smith some credit if you will, but in my opinion you're engaging in faulty albeit popular speculation when you declare that Ryan would have screwed up the deal or that Smith pulled the trigger where the next guy wouldn't have. You're dissing Ryan with no proof, are you not?

 

I'm inclined to thank a bunch of people for playing roles, especially the Pittsburgh scout, but also Jim Pohlad, Ryan for his role in building and managing the whole scouting infrastructure, Smith, and nameless others.

 

[drjim]

 

Both were more than TR ever spent internationally. There was some reported competition for Kepler too. TR has had opportunities to bid in an open market for top talent and has declined to do so every time.

Javier was signed under a system of bonus pools and caps. Might as well say TR showed a willingness to spend on Buxton too.

 

Which brings it all back to another point that is often in dispute - Target Field. Ryan didn't spend on open markets his first tenure, but funny, does now. He has paid the largest signing bonuses for international and draft in team history, while maintaining a decent payroll this season 9and 2012).

 

When budgets were at their highest ever, the year before Target Field, the Twins spent more on international signings. Not exactly a shocking development. Articles at the time and quotes by Smith suggest that Polanco and Kepler were within the budget that was set, and Sano was special money requested by Smith when the circumstances on Sano changed and many of the bigger bidders backed out based on the age inquiries.

 

I absolutely give Smith credit for Sano, great move, and very uncertain if Ryan would have pushed the budget at the time, probably would not have.

[PseudoSABR]

I will never ceased to be amazed by Twins fans capacity to invent criticism of Terry Ryan.  

 

The credit for the Sano signing probably belongs to people other than Bill Smith, and I imagine those same people were with the Twins both before Bill Smith was GM and after his tenure.   

 

There's reasonable criticism of Terry Ryan, his speculative non-signing of Sano, is not one of them.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Yeah, I think it is really difficult to know how much credit to give the GM's on international signings, or even the draft. It is most likely information and suggestions that they are given, but often times the draft is a little luck of who is there and how much info you have on them.

 

I think the most accurate way to judge a GM is by the MLB roster construction. What types of trades do they make, do they win them? Do they add the right pieces through FA, and do those players play better or worse than there previous years? Do they put the best 25 guys on the roster and in the right roles, if so, how long does that take them? Do they move on quickly from underperforming players with lower potential, or do they give long leashes to low upside guys? Do they make they make good business decisions with the tougher calls (service time, resigning guys, unloading, etc)?

 

It also cannot be solely placed on wins and losses, as a winning team might actually be even better if the better clear and viable decisions were being made, and a losing team might actually might be making all the right decisions available and would otherwise be worse off.

 

I like this seasons success, but I am torn on what I think about TR this year. I am trying my best to trust the decisions he's made all the right decisions. We might never know, as who knows what Berrios could have done had he been brought up in August, who knows what other moves could have been made at the deadline and whether they would have worked out, who knows whether May would have been mediocre in the rotation had he been there the whole season. Who knows what Vargas could have done as another option the past few months. We just don't know. 

 

Bill Smith could have us locked in a playoff spot with the decisions he would have made, or he could have us all focussed on football season since the all star break. 

[Hrbowski]

 

Ryan never would have had the guts to pull the trigger on Sano. Smith wasn't great, but the Sano signing and his drafts set up the twins for success in the future.

His drafts? What are you talking about? They were awful.

[Mike Sixel]

The GM does not run the draft, the head scout does.

[bird]

 

Good luck with this thread......I've been beating that drum for a while now, and people won't do it.

 

They love Kepler and Polanco too, the only time the Twins have really gone way over and spent money, and somehow they think that is a coincidence that they did it when Ryan was not GM.

 

 

What's not a coincidence to me is how disconnected from context and facts we can get when we discuss this issue.

 

Let's at least argue some facts first. This may render it moot to blame or defend a guy who I can effectively argue is close to irrelevant in how all these signings went down.

 

Historically, the Twins ownership has set a separate budget (a rough one) each year for international signings, although this process changed with the new rules obviously. As is the Twins Way, they never felt like we as fans deserved to be privy to these conversations or these budget amounts. When Sano was signed, we can speculate, without really knowing, whether his expenditure fell outside of the established budget or not. But more importantly as it relates to the assertion of the thread, we have no idea what kind of conversations took place, who pushed to spend it, who didn't, and who wouldn't have. Any opinions being expressed about that are pure speculation. And understandably, it's going to be popular to speculate in such a way as to shed Ryan in a disfavorable way, right?

 

Howard Norsetter had ten times more to do with Kepler's signing than Smith. Trying to pin something on Ryan based on the signing of Polanco and Kepler, as convenient as it is if your goal is to add a demerit to Ryan's long list of them,  is a complete disconnect. If we're going to beat that drum, we first have to make a connection between the actual role of the GM and the signing itself.