Apologize to Bill Smith Thread

[howieramone2]

I don't think anyone has ever doubted that.  It's not the GM's role to do leg work.

 

But even TR's own quote in that article suggest it would have been an unusual move for him:

 

 

How often has TR gotten involved in any kind of open competitive bidding? Even his bigger FA moves recently have generally been "strike early" moves. Meanwhile, we know Smith did with Sano and Kepler in 2009, was trying to rent Cliff Lee the next season, dealt Ramos, Ladendorf, etc. at deadlines. And solicited competitive bids for Johan too.

 

The ultimate problem was that Smith's aggressiveness was probably more due to naivety than smarts. Still, it was definitely something he was bringing to the table that Ryan so far hasn't, and I see no problem giving him some credit when it worked out (while also noting it didn't work out more often than not ).

This is one of the great myths that has flourished on the board, that all the free agents we have signed we were not actively pursued by other bidders. No one has ever provided a shred of evidence that this is true. What in the world is wrong with "strike early" moves?

[nicksaviking]

The organization has a lot of foot soldiers, I'm guessing the GM doesn't do a ton of ground work. My completely uneducated guess is that Bill Smith was simply more likely than Ryan to say "Yes" when one of his guys proposed an idea to him.

 

Smith being a "numbers" guy would logically tend to defer to his trusted "baseball" guys, while Ryan, who is conservative in nature and has the equity in the league to work in his comfort zone, tends to say "No".

[Pius Jefferson]

People are seriously apologizing to Billy Smith for a decision that wasn't even criticized at time it took place. To me an apology is reserved to times one is wrong about something or someone. Find me anyone who outright said Smith should not have signed Sano. Some people would have predicted he'd be a bust but that's not the same. 

[ken]

 

People are seriously apologizing to Billy Smith for a decision that wasn't even criticized at time it took place. To me an apology is reserved to times one is wrong about something or someone. Find me anyone who outright said Smith should not have signed Sano. Some people would have predicted he'd be a bust but that's not the same. 

The apology isn't for signing Sano - it's for slamming Smith as a terrible GM when he actually did some good things.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

The apology isn't for signing Sano - it's for slamming Smith as a terrible GM when he actually did some good things.

 

The 'apology' directly mentions signing Sano like people had criticized Smith.The other international signings like Kepler also weren't with criticism of Smith. Think about the idea of 'apologizing' like anyone wronged Billy Smith. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The 'apology' directly mentions signing Sano like people had criticized Smith.The other international signings like Kepler also weren't with criticism of Smith. Think about the idea of 'apologizing' like anyone wronged Billy Smith. 

 

The apology directly mentions Sano because he (and several other critical prospects) are part of this team, in part, because of him.  When all we ever hear is "Bill Smith sucks, he wrecked the team", we seem to forget that many of the prospects we are excited about are tied to his regime, not Ryan.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

The apology directly mentions Sano because he (and several other critical prospects) are part of this team, in part, because of him.  When all we ever hear is "Bill Smith sucks, he wrecked the team", we seem to forget that many of the prospects we are excited about are tied to his regime, not Ryan.

 

That warrants a credit to Billy Smith thread not an apology to Billy Smith thread. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Yes, but the GM can override the scouts. I don't think that scouts get enough credit, though.

 

The GM can, but doesn't and shouldn't. They can discuss draft strategy and the Scouting Director goes with it. 

 

Also, the Twins are really, really good at giving credit to their scouts. I've talked with Mike Radcliff and Terry Ryan and when it comes to the draft, international signings, etc., they give all the credit to the area scouts. 

 

Fred Guerrero deserves a large percentage of the credit for Sano, but I know that once Guerrero made his recommendation, Radcliff spent a lot of time down there too. 

 

Regarding Nishioka... I do tend to put that a little more on Smith. I've read the reports on Nishioka and they were definitely not all flattering. Obviously no one predicted his inability to handle the big leagues, and no one could have predicted the level of bad. I personally (And no one has, should, or will say it) believe it was as much a business decision as a baseball decision.

 

Smith had good moves and bad moves. Terry Ryan has had good moves and bad moves. 

 

It's tough to compare the two though. Ryan was in the Metrodome. Smith knew they were moving into Target Field. International signing regulations have changed. The draft bonus situation has changed. 

[DocBauer]

I'm sorry, home has been erratic since I got home so I don't have time to confirm, so forgive me if I'm off a bit here. But wasn't Young the second pick of his draft, rushed quickly to the majors, (where he still produced) and runner up for ROY?

 

I think the Twins blew the Harris part of the deal. I believe they were short-sighted in regard to how good a player Barlett was going to be, and their lack of a suitable replacement. But Young was a decent young athlete with decent speed, strong arm, and big time potential power. Flaws? Yeah, there probably were some flaws and red flags, (potentially), but there are a lot of rough edges on most youngsters. Especially those who get rushed a bit. I think Smith felt he was getting on on the ground floor of a prospect with a ton of potential. I can't fault him for that.

[DocBauer]

agreed.

I liked getting Jepsen, I just think they gave up too much. Deal from a position of strength in the org (OF etc) not from a position of weakness (SP)

This is tough for me to debate, even though a part of me wants to. The problem is, I really didn't know anything about Jepsen before we got him. He kind of slipped under my radar. I liked Hu, and he's a great story. But a top 20 milb, probably after this season anyway, in A ball for a still young-ish reliever like Jepsen who has done what he's done thus far...especially if he can maintain it...I feel pretty good about the trade is all I can say.

[TheLeviathan]

 

That warrants a credit to Billy Smith thread not an apology to Billy Smith thread. 

 

The apology is for refusing to ever give him credit.  I hope we're all caught up now.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

The apology is for refusing to ever give him credit.  I hope we're all caught up now.

 

There's nothing to be caught up with. I wondered why an apology thread was necessary. Nothing more and nothing less.

[howieramone2]

 

agreed.

I liked getting Jepsen, I just think they gave up too much. Deal from a position of strength in the org (OF etc) not from a position of weakness (SP)

The strength of the farm system is starting pitching and hard as it is to believe today, power arm relief pitchers are next. Hu may have been somewhere around our 17th-20th prospect, Tapia somewhere in the 40-50 range. We received a power arm vet who is keeping us in the hunt. I have no complaints.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Actually this is a sound strategy for a mid-market team and pretty much the same formula followed by the Astros and Luvable Losers. The system rewards those with the worst records with the best picks. Fools gold is attempting to compete when you can't, where you miss the playoffs and don't get the better picks year after year. Even the Evil Nation spent 500 Million one off-season and missed the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure it will ever happen on this board without a culture change, but the baseball world recognizes Terry Ryan's sound strategy.

 

I'm not convinced it was his strategy, since they didn't really do a full tear down, and he signed Nolasco and Pelfrey when they were still bad......and then didn't trade Pelfrey or Suzuki. I just don't see a consistent tear down strategy, or be aggressive strategy. I could be wrong, maybe it was his strategy, but it didn't look like either the Cubs or the Astros rebuild at all.

[drjim]

I'm not convinced it was his strategy, since they didn't really do a full tear down, and he signed Nolasco and Pelfrey when they were still bad......and then didn't trade Pelfrey or Suzuki. I just don't see a consistent tear down strategy, or be aggressive strategy. I could be wrong, maybe it was his strategy, but it didn't look like either the Cubs or the Astros rebuild at all.

None of the three look the same because they had different starting points and different contexts.

 

I actually think Target Field was actually a negative in that it made a complete tear down much more difficult to sell to corporate sponsors and to a lesser extent season ticket holders.

 

Cubs had more leeway because it was a complete house cleaning after decades of attempted rebuilds.

 

Astros had an owner that was more willing to completely tear down because the team was bad, farm system was barren, there was sagging attendance and no tv deal. I give their owner a lot of credit for giving the go ahead and the front office for executing the strategy (so far).

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Fun fact: Trevor May's 2014-2015 seasons are worth more WAR than the return on Santana, Young, Capps, and Hoey combined.* Everyone else was under replacement value with the Twins, which negated the wins brought by Gomez.

 

*this was very quick eyeball math, feel free to dispute this claim... either way, it's close.

 

stares at monitor and blinks....

 

Not fun with numbers. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the thing we tend to forget about Young was that he was signed to a major league contract at the draft so the Twins never had the ability to send him down... How/why Smith didn't use that as a major piece of leverage is beyond me.  The idea of aquiring Young was a good one.  What we gave up for him, not so much. 

[bird]

 

None of the three look the same because they had different starting points and different contexts.

I actually think Target Field was actually a negative in that it made a complete tear down much more difficult to sell to corporate sponsors and to a lesser extent season ticket holders.

Cubs had more leeway because it was a complete house cleaning after decades of attempted rebuilds.

Astros had an owner that was more willing to completely tear down because the team was bad, farm system was barren, there was sagging attendance and no tv deal. I give their owner a lot of credit for giving the go ahead and the front office for executing the strategy (so far).

 

 

Also, a tear-down strategy requires something of value to tear down. Doubtful that Ryan would've done it anyway, but there just weren't a lot of valuable veterans to trade. And Ryan's FA pieces are a desperate attempt to bridge the long painful time period between being horrible and regaining relevance. It's unfortunate the market demanded long-term contracts for any pitcher who stands a chance at being a mid rotation starter or better. But the alternative was...um...you got me.

[old nurse]

The alternative to Nolasco was finding the next PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez with a third prayer  in Rochester for when they faltered.

[bird]

 

The apology is for refusing to ever give him credit.  I hope we're all caught up now.

 

The Pelotero documentary and Wetmore's piece should be required reading for anyone who wants to claim any of these things:

 

1. Smith deserves no credit (has this been anyone's claim?)

2. Smith deserves most of the credit. (Guerrero, Radcliff, and Jim Pohlad all deserve more if you trust the veracity of those sources).

3. Ryan had nothing to do with Sano's signing. 

 

On the last point, please read this quote from Rob Plummer, Sano's agent before disputing the point:

 

"A major reason that Miguel Sano signed with the Twins is because of my trust in Mike Radcliff and Terry Ryan."

 

This subject has been a sore point for me, but not because Smith is getting too much or too little credit. It's because so many people choose to ignore how important other people are in the process and have such a distorted idea about the roles and contributions of both Ryan and Smith, let alone Jim Pohlad, Mike Radcliff, Fred Guerrero, Howard Norstetter, and others. 

 

As for believing that Sano would not have signed under Ryan, it's understandable, given Ryan's historic and frustrating non-aggressiveness, but that doesn't make such conjecture informed or even that reasonable. But again, I understand why people might choose to believe this. I personally believe other forces were strong enough to assure that the GM climb on board, not the least of which was Jim Pohlad's long-time determination to be competitive in international markets.

 

So, I give credit where credit is due. To Smith, primarily because, along with Jim Pohlad and Andy MacPhail in those days, he was finally able to help influence the old man to increase the international budget.  And not because of the false narrative that he practically single-handedly pushed for the approval and then shrewdly negotiated the Sano contract when Terry Ryan would have shriveled up and sunk into a corner and blown it. 

 

And I give Ryan credit, because others with no reason to be untruthful give him credit for creating and nurturing a culture of honesty and trust where it is often not found. 

 

Mike Radcliff: "Rob Plummer was working with many different teams to get them to make a financial commitment to sign Sano, and he had belief and trust in us being who we are."

 

Terry Ryan: "Fred Guerrero is a good person and well-respected in Latin America. I think it's one of those situations where they had faith that what we said we were going to back up. Fred and Radcliff and Billy...stayed with it, stayed with the agent, stayed with the kid." 

 

Like him or not, Ryan is greatly responsible for the loyal and forthright culture that so influenced Sano's decision.

[Boom Boom]

People are seriously apologizing to Billy Smith for a decision that wasn't even criticized at time it took place. To me an apology is reserved to times one is wrong about something or someone. Find me anyone who outright said Smith should not have signed Sano. Some people would have predicted he'd be a bust but that's not the same.

I was apologizing to Smith because he got torched by the fans worse than he deserved, myself included.

[Boom Boom]

The Pelotero documentary and Wetmore's piece should be required reading for anyone who wants to claim any of these things:

 

1. Smith deserves no credit (has this been anyone's claim?)

2. Smith deserves most of the credit. (Guerrero, Radcliff, and Jim Pohlad all deserve more if you trust the veracity of those sources).

3. Ryan had nothing to do with Sano's signing.

 

On the last point, please read this quote from Rob Plummer, Sano's agent before disputing the point:

 

"A major reason that Miguel Sano signed with the Twins is because of my trust in Mike Radcliff and Terry Ryan."

 

This subject has been a sore point for me, but not because Smith is getting too much or too little credit. It's because so many people choose to ignore how important other people are in the process and have such a distorted idea about the roles and contributions of both Ryan and Smith, let alone Jim Pohlad, Mike Radcliff, Fred Guerrero, Howard Norstetter, and others.

 

As for believing that Sano would not have signed under Ryan, it's understandable, given Ryan's historic and frustrating non-aggressiveness, but that doesn't make such conjecture informed or even that reasonable. But again, I understand why people might choose to believe this. I personally believe other forces were strong enough to assure that the GM climb on board, not the least of which was Jim Pohlad's long-time determination to be competitive in international markets.

 

So, I give credit where credit is due. To Smith, primarily because, along with Jim Pohlad and Andy MacPhail in those days, he was finally able to help influence the old man to increase the international budget. And not because of the false narrative that he practically single-handedly pushed for the approval and then shrewdly negotiated the Sano contract when Terry Ryan would have shriveled up and sunk into a corner and blown it.

 

And I give Ryan credit, because others with no reason to be untruthful give him credit for creating and nurturing a culture of honesty and trust where it is often not found.

 

Mike Radcliff: "Rob Plummer was working with many different teams to get them to make a financial commitment to sign Sano, and he had belief and trust in us being who we are."

 

Terry Ryan: "Fred Guerrero is a good person and well-respected in Latin America. I think it's one of those situations where they had faith that what we said we were going to back up. Fred and Radcliff and Billy...stayed with it, stayed with the agent, stayed with the kid."

 

Like him or not, Ryan is greatly responsible for the loyal and forthright culture that so influenced Sano's decision.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. You can absolutely give Ryan credit for moves made under Smith's regime.

 

You have to take the good with the bad, though. We've heard some evidence that Ryan was a big part of bringing in Sano, but that makes me wonder how much input Ryan had in all the moves that Smith gets pilloried over.

[bird]

 

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. You can absolutely give Ryan credit for moves made under Smith's regime.

You have to take the good with the bad, though. We've heard some evidence that Ryan was a big part of bringing in Sano, but that makes me wonder how much input Ryan had in all the moves that Smith gets pilloried over.

 

 

Good point. I take it a step further, because as I've pointed out enough to get a warning for it, there are five dozen employees in scouting and development, and no major player decision is made in a vacuum. Which means that the Nishioki call for example was a collective boo-boo. That said, all organizations have their bad moves, even the better ones like the Twins. I find humor in all the tarring and feathering that goes on at TD over some of the less impactful decisions.

[TheLeviathan]

 

As for believing that Sano would not have signed under Ryan, it's understandable, given Ryan's historic and frustrating non-aggressiveness, but that doesn't make such conjecture informed or even that reasonable. But again, I understand why people might choose to believe this. I personally believe other forces were strong enough to assure that the GM climb on board, not the least of which was Jim Pohlad's long-time determination to be competitive in international markets.

 

 

It is informed and reasonable because there was a similar situation with Miguel Cabrera.  (Radcliff involved, Twins one of only a handful of teams, etc.)  We also have a long history of penny-pinching roster building.  You don't have to like it, but part of what helps Ryan avoid Hardy for Hoey deals or other huge mistakes is that he is deliberately conservative.   It's just what he is.  It's part of what makes him a very good GM in fact.

 

But it also has drawbacks and situations like the one involving signing Sano are not where I feel most comfortable with him in charge.  Hell, it took him awhile with Target Field revenues to even push his own tendencies in FA.  It's just not who Terry Ryan is, for good and for bad.  And I like Ryan as a GM, I think he's pretty good, but I'm not delusional about him breaking the bank for an international free agent like Sano.  

 

You get me a Delorean and Doc Brown and I'll take any bet that Sano signs elsewhere with Ryan in charge.   I don't understand the need to praise Ryan for what he does well, but also delude ourselves about his weaknesses.  People seem invariably to fall in one camp or the other.  Unless you think the man is some kind of pinnacle of perfection or some kind of troll meant to torment us, it'd be nice if we took him for what he is - very conservative.  Sometimes that's good, sometimes it's not.