Bullpens matter

[USAFChief]

To me, This ten game road trip, if nothing else, demonstrates the importance of having a strong bullpen. The bullpen played a big role in winning, or losing, all but one of these games, IIRC.

 

Not every game works that way, but having the better pitcher on the mound, and/or having favorable matchups, from the seventh inning on, is really really important over a season. You need quality, and you need depth.

 

I'm in the minority, but it would be OK with me if Trevor May was in the 2016 pen. I think the team would probably be better off.

[stringer bell]

I agree Chief. If May is a boss in the bullpen, it might be worth it. The Twins bullpen has gone much older since the trip began (adding Cotts and Boyer) and was better for it short-term. However, if they want a strong bullpen they need more than sketchy guys leading up to a closer and it seems to me that May and Jepsen fit that bill.

[Seth Stohs]

Berrios needs to be in the rotation next year, at least early in the year if not opening day. Most likely Hughes, Santana and Gibson will be givens, if they're not traded. Nolasco will be in the picture still. Tyler Duffey deserves a shot. 

 

That said, Trevor May deserves a real shot as a starter too. He proved that in the first half. 

[howeda7]

It's easier to enter Spring Training assuming he's a starter, then put him back in the BP when needed. But unless he's clearly better than Berrios/Duffey, it makes more sense to have him in the BP than both of them in AAA.

Berrios needs to be in the rotation next year, at least early in the year if not opening day. Most likely Hughes, Santana and Gibson will be givens, if they're not traded. Nolasco will be in the picture still. Tyler Duffey deserves a shot. 

 

That said, Trevor May deserves a real shot as a starter too. He proved that in the first half. 

 

[Bark's Lounge]

I'd hate to waste an opportunity to see if May could be a solid starting pitcher with the ability to strike out 7.5 per nine, but when you see what the Royals and Yankees are throwing at you from there bullpens - it makes you want to take a step back and reevaluate the process.

 

I really don't know what the right thing to do is, but when you see the Royals with Davis and Holland and the Yanks with Betances and Miller, I think a ball club would be stupid not to try to imitate what those teams are doing.

 

Not to compare May to the guys I mentioned, he can have swing and miss stuff from the back end of our bullpen, but on the other side of the coin, he could do that as a starting pitcher too.

 

Decisions, decisions....

[Highabove]

 

To me, This ten game road trip, if nothing else, demonstrates the importance of having a strong bullpen. The bullpen played a big role in winning, or losing, all but one of these games, IIRC.

Not every game works that way, but having the better pitcher on the mound, and/or having favorable matchups, from the seventh inning on, is really really important over a season. You need quality, and you need depth.

I'm in the minority, but it would be OK with me if Trevor May was in the 2016 pen. I think the team would probably be better off.

The importance of a Bullpen has increased over the last few years. Runs come at a premium. The Twins will be in many more close games. Ryan can no longer treat the Bullpen as an afterthought. The days of bringing in cheap trash can pitchers and keeping mediocre arms has to be over.

More Teams are realizing that they can win with an average starting staff, provided that they have a bullpen that can end the game in the 6th inning. The Twins absolutely need a shutdown pen next year.

We will see if Ryan is stuck in the past. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Accepting May in the bullpen for 2016 is just giving the front office an excuse for yet again not signing any decent relievers in the off season. Boo to that. Go out and sign a few guys like Neshek or Gregorson (examples from this past winter, haven't studied this winter's class yet).

 

May in the pen right now, I understand there isn't much other choice to improve the pen. But this team will have the opportunity to fix that in the off season and they should be expected to get with the times and actually pay the modest sums due good FA relievers.

[Blackjack]

You have an excess of starting pitching and a weakness in the bullpen, use that excess to strengthen a weakness!!  Seems logical to me.

[USAFChief]

Accepting May in the bullpen for 2016 is just giving the front office an excuse for yet again not signing any decent relievers in the off season. Boo to that. Go out and sign a few guys like Neshek or Gregorson (examples from this past winter, haven't studied this winter's class yet).

May in the pen right now, I understand there isn't much other choice to improve the pen. But this team will have the opportunity to fix that in the off season and they should be expected to get with the times and actually pay the modest sums due good FA relievers.

If they add multiple "good FA relievers" I will reevaluate my position on this. Bu I don't see that as even remotely likely.

[Platoon]

I too like May in the pen this year, and agree with the need to upgrade it with power arms. The best of both worlds though will be for a Jay or Burdi to come around and let May start. Highabove mentioned the 6th inning as a BP starting "time". That seems the new normal. For years Gardy had a set 7, 8, and 9 guy. It was automatic. Now it seems another is necessary. This is only one of many roster decisions that will cause TD users to search for SFW synonyms for "I can't f#%*£g believe they did that!

[Otto von Ballpark]

If they add multiple "good FA relievers" I will reevaluate my position on this. Bu I don't see that as even remotely likely.

It is not that hard to add a solid reliever if you are willing to spend $6 mil AAV on one (or even less for guys like Hawkins). There are other avenues too, like trades and fliers with upside, not to mention finishing the job on developing Meyer and the recent RP draftees.

 

If the Twins are even mildly aggressive in these areas, there should be no need to prematurely convert one of their better starters to relief, barring catastrophe.

[USAFChief]

"A solid reliever" doesn't fix the pen.

 

In any case, as I said, if the Twins can pull off a bullpen overhaul that doesn't include May, great. But I'll need to see that first.

 

I also tend to believe many fans put too little emphasis on the pen, and underestimate the difficulty of building a deep and consistently effective one.

[HitInAPinch]

 

If they add multiple "good FA relievers" I will reevaluate my position on this. Bu I don't see that as even remotely likely.

Honestly, Chief, why would you even spend the money when you've got the guy sitting on your roster right now?

 

I like a bullpen that starts with Trevor May, Casey Fien [the ANGRY Fien, not the early 2015 one], Kevin Jepsen and Glen Perkins as co-closers [because Perkins is wearing out].  Toss in a LOOGY or 2 and I'm pretty happy.

 

I also think May deserves a shot at SP.  He's been a good soldier and deserves some respect for that.

[HitInAPinch]

Looking at the more recent boxscores, it occurs to me that Molitor/Allen are using the bullpen more like the Royals....

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe one of the lesser starters could be in the pen, and not May....since most pitchers get slightly better as RP......

 

I agree with chief, a bullpen is important. It is why I hated what Ryan did this offseason with the bullpen so much. Trying to get by on the cheap, or with a guy that wasn't good last year......It is why I hated they didn't find a way to either cut Graham, use him as a real RP, or succeed in trading for him.

 

Tyler Jay won't be in the pen next year, they'll spend 2-3 years making him a starter, and we've already seen that outside of May, they seem to not want to make starters into RP (odd to me....).

 

They need to figure out how to coach RP in the minors.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"A solid reliever" doesn't fix the pen.

In any case, as I said, if the Twins can pull off a bullpen overhaul that doesn't include May, great. But I'll need to see that first.

I also tend to believe many fans put too little emphasis on the pen, and underestimate the difficulty of building a deep and consistently effective one.

I didn't mean to imply that a single "solid reliever" would fix the pen.

 

But look at a guy like Mark Lowe.  Great season, maybe a little too costly in terms of prospects for a 2-month rental, but do you really think the Twins can't afford to be aggressive in FA bidding for him and his 11 K/9?  Or Darren O'Day?  Shawn Kelley?  Ryan Madson?  None of those guys are going to break any bank, maybe 2-3 years around $6 mil AAV just like Gregerson, Neshek, Duke, etc., and they all represent fairly high upside options.

 

Then there are high-upside rehab projects, like Madson was last winter, which we should be able to attract to our organization after a winning season, and another tier of guys who can reliably fill out the rest of your staff cheaply if you so desire.  Guys like Hawkins and Oliver Perez.

 

The Twins have neglected their bullpen so long, I think some have forgotten that these avenues exist.  You don't have to rely on Duensings, Swarzaks, Boyers, Thompsons, and Stauffers...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Honestly, Chief, why would you even spend the money when you've got the guy sitting on your roster right now?

But that same guy, while no superstar, has better SP upside than arguably all 5 guys in your current rotation, and probably everybody but Berrios next year too.

 

If you can replace May as a bullpen weapon with a no more than a 2/12 (Neshek) or 3/18 (Gregerson) contract, then use May as a SP replacement for one of your four weaker starters, that makes you a much better team overall.

 

Or would you rather TR settle for more Boyers and Stauffers out of the pen, and commit to Nolasco-Santana-Hughes-Milone in the rotation regardless of performance?

[bird]

 

"A solid reliever" doesn't fix the pen.

In any case, as I said, if the Twins can pull off a bullpen overhaul that doesn't include May, great. But I'll need to see that first.

I also tend to believe many fans put too little emphasis on the pen, and underestimate the difficulty of building a deep and consistently effective one.

Yes. We're seeing true shutdown guys in the best bullpens, not solid relievers.

 

Betances and Miller were two of the most highly-prized prospects out there. Why would a team not pay attention to what KC and the Yanks are accomplishing and be more willing to insert high-ceiling guys into the BP?

 

I agree that Ryan won't overhaul the pen via FA and trades acceptably. He won't pony up. But I have a bit of optimism that there is an organizational recognition of the need to build a deep and more overpowering bullpen. It's just that stubborn insistence on doing it from within, and we just have to hope that a handful of these prospects with dominant pitches can get their act together quickly. Lots of candidates in addition to May.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Betances and Miller were two of the most highly-prized prospects out there.

"Was" being the operative word on Miller.  Dude was traded for nothing in 2010 then non-tendered, the same winter we were busy trading Hardy for Hoey.  We need to target guys like that, and high-upside injured guys like Madson.

 

 

Why would a team not pay attention to what KC and the Yanks are accomplishing and be more willing to insert high-ceiling guys into the BP?

Holland, Herrera, Shreve, and Wilson came up as relievers.  (As did Robertson who is now departed from NY, and Finnegan arguably came up a RP too, in his short stint in the KC org.)

 

Davis, Hochevar, Betances, and Miller were failed starters (some spectacular failures).

 

Neither KC nor NY has recently moved a starter performing like May to their bullpen, certainly not permanently.

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

 

Or would you rather TR settle for more Boyers and Stauffers out of the pen, and commit to Nolasco-Santana-Hughes-Milone in the rotation regardless of performance?

 

 

 

A little reality check:  Nolasoco, E. Santana and Hughes are already under contract.  If healthy, they are in the rotation.  What you're proposing is spending more money to fill the bullpen holes when May is already there.  Spending for the sake of spending.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A little reality check:  Nolasoco, E. Santana and Hughes are already under contract.  If healthy, they are in the rotation.  What you're proposing is spending more money to fill the bullpen holes when May is already there.  Spending for the sake of spending.

If one of those guys can't perform, I don't want TR to keep running him out there to start.  (The Cubs released Edwin Jackson after 2.5 years, Nolasco potentially isn't too far from that point.  We could eat some salary in trade too.)

 

And that's only 3 guys, with a pretty big "if healthy" qualifier.  Odds are we will employ at least one regular SP without a big contract who is worse than May next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like a bullpen that starts with Trevor May, Casey Fien [the ANGRY Fien, not the early 2015 one], Kevin Jepsen and Glen Perkins as co-closers [because Perkins is wearing out].  Toss in a LOOGY or 2 and I'm pretty happy.

Fien, turning 32, earning several million next year, with a 5.4 K/9 since coming off the DL and his third straight season of dramatically dropping K rate?  You want him, an admittedly wearing out Perkins, and Rays reject Jepsen as three-fourths of your bullpen front line?

 

And you still need to sign some guys to fill it out.  If May was the top setup guy, I could easily see TR filling the rest with mediocre vets on guaranteed deals again, maybe re-signing some of Boyer, Duensing, or Cotts.  After all, no young guys have claimed spots or earned trust yet.

 

If you've got to sign some guys anyway, why not sign good guys?  A new top setup man?  And then try them first while you strengthen the rotation with May (and put some pressure on your big-money SP under-performers)?  Heck, maybe May's dominant bullpen turn will make him an even better, more confident starter.

[Thrylos]

Agree with this.  And if they do matter in the regular season (that they do,) they matter twice as much in the post-season.   I would seriously like to see both May and Hughes (check his record as a reliever) in the pen in 2016 and push 33 year old then Perkins to the LH set up spot.  This trio is not as good as the Reds' bad boys, might be approaching it. 

 

You got to look at context:

 

a. The Twins do not have an Ace in their MLB staff, and their best starter(s) are decent number 3s in competitive teams

b. There is one guy in the organization with Ace potential and he has had a terrible 2015

c. There is one guy with number 2 or so potential in the organization and he has had a very good 2015

d. The 2016 free agent SP class is stoked: David Price, Johnny Cueto, Ryan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir are solid number one number 2 types and they are yound.  Then you got Lincecum, Latos and Leake who are likely better than what you have today and 2 of them have been aces.

 

It is silly for the Twins not to go after one or two in that list.  Have Santana as the long man in the pen and send Nolasco to CA, for all I care...

[howieramone2]

The importance of a Bullpen has increased over the last few years. Runs come at a premium. The Twins will be in many more close games. Ryan can no longer treat the Bullpen as an afterthought. The days of bringing in cheap trash can pitchers and keeping mediocre arms has to be over.

More Teams are realizing that they can win with an average starting staff, provided that they have a bullpen that can end the game in the 6th inning. The Twins absolutely need a shutdown pen next year.

We will see if Ryan is stuck in the past.

Take a look at the makeup of the 2012 and 2014 drafts if you think TR is stuck in the past. How about the two Rule 5 pickups? It would be great if everything came together at the same time, it just doesn't always happen that way. This team is a contending team, just not a finished product.

[TheLeviathan]

Gibson-May-Hughes-Santana should be opening day locks for the rotation.  

 

Let Milone, Duffy, Berrios and Nolasco battle for the 5th spot.  Nolasco and Milone go to the pen if they fail, Berrios and Duffy go to AAA.  

 

May is too talented to slot into the bullpen until he fails as a starter.  Don't take a competent to good starter and force him into the pen, that's a tremendous loss of value.  The team has plenty of money and options to fix the pen without making that mistake.

[TheLeviathan]

Ideally I'd love this:

 

Rotation - Gibson, Berrios, May, Hughes, Santana

 

Bullpen - Milone, Jepsen, Perkins, Nolasco, Fien, FA/Trade

 

[jimmer]

 

You have an excess of starting pitching and a weakness in the bullpen, use that excess to strengthen a weakness!!  Seems logical to me.

Only if you believe we have excess quality starting pitching.  The team seemed to believe that going into 2011. Ooops.  We do not have a quality rotation and May is a quality starter.  He should be in the rotation.

[howieramone2]

 

Ideally I'd love this:

 

Rotation - Gibson, Berrios, May, Hughes, Santana

 

Bullpen - Milone, Jepsen, Perkins, Nolasco, Fien, FA/Trade

I think you're very close. I'm guessing Nolasco starts in the rotation, and Berrios is first man up. TR is very high on Pressly, so I see him starting in the pen if healthy.

[jimbo92107]

 

Ideally I'd love this:

 

Rotation - Gibson, Berrios, May, Hughes, Santana

 

Bullpen - Milone, Jepsen, Perkins, Nolasco, Fien, FA/Trade

That staff has a good look. Nolasco's style of peppering the zone from different angles and speeds might be very effective in a short relief role, which also wouldn't be so hard on his aging body. My biggest concern for next year is Perkins, who 2 years in a row now has faded in the 2nd half due to injury. Why would anybody assume this won't happen next year? Milone might be a cagey move in the pen, like an insurance policy for when a starter goes down.

 

Meanwhile, May needs to get back into the rotation, where he was rounding into a very solid mid-ro starter. Can't move him now because of urgent need for a dependable arm in the pen. Berrios seems like a no-brainer call-up for September, but TR's reasoning often departs from what is apparent to others...

[Monkeypaws]

Maybe instead of drafting college power relievers and converting them into starters, we should keep them as relievers and build a fearsome bullpen.