Rosario (2015) = Santana (2014) Yes or No

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yup... you just won't read me writing about that too terrible much. 

I am just razzing you, for your optimistic reputation.  The first Google hit for "Seth Stohs" + "be fine" right now is this tweet from you in March: "The Twins will be fine in center field. Schafer and Robinson both solid defensively."

 

Next two hits I found:

 

From February 2015: "Both [Duensing and Stauffer] have good track records of success and are still in their early-30s. They should be fine"

 

March 2012: "Can't take anything from Marquis' performance tonight. He'll be fine. He's had a career of being pretty solid. No need to worry about him."

[Thrylos]

Not even close. 

 

Check their minor league records.

[Shane Wahl]

 

I am just razzing you, for your optimistic reputation.  The first Google hit for "Seth Stohs" + "be fine" right now is this tweet from you in March: "The Twins will be fine in center field. Schafer and Robinson both solid defensively."

 

Next two hits I found:

 

From February 2015: "Both [Duensing and Stauffer] have good track records of success and are still in their early-30s. They should be fine"

 

March 2012: "Can't take anything from Marquis' performance tonight. He'll be fine. He's had a career of being pretty solid. No need to worry about him."

 

Wait wait wait. That can't be right . . . "Seth Stohs be fine" must bring up something wildly different than that!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wait wait wait. That can't be right . . . "Seth Stohs be fine" must bring up something wildly different than that!

That's why I was careful to separate the two phrases, to avoid the inevitable inappropriate pictures.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sorry for the digression.  Back to the topic at hand, I think I'd keep Rosario on a pretty short leash for 2016, which should be fairly easy assuming we don't trade another young outfielder.  I don't think he's likely to crash quite as hard as Santana, but there's a decent chance that he regresses and that his current line is close to his peak.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I am just razzing you, for your optimistic reputation.  The first Google hit for "Seth Stohs" + "be fine" right now is this tweet from you in March: "The Twins will be fine in center field. Schafer and Robinson both solid defensively."

 

Next two hits I found:

 

From February 2015: "Both [Duensing and Stauffer] have good track records of success and are still in their early-30s. They should be fine"

 

March 2012: "Can't take anything from Marquis' performance tonight. He'll be fine. He's had a career of being pretty solid. No need to worry about him."

 

This is painful to read... thanks for showing this. Ha!!

[Shane Wahl]

 

Sorry for the digression.  Back to the topic at hand, I think I'd keep Rosario on a pretty short leash for 2016, which should be fairly easy assuming we don't trade another young outfielder.  I don't think he's likely to crash quite as hard as Santana, but there's a decent chance that he regresses and that his current line is close to his peak.

 

If it really is Santana bad, then ok. I highly doubt that it is going to be like that though. I would rather cut into playing time with the number of OFs than go through more yo-yo situations with prospects. Cut that stuff out!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If it really is Santana bad, then ok. I highly doubt that it is going to be like that though. I would rather cut into playing time with the number of OFs than go through more yo-yo situations with prospects. Cut that stuff out!

Sure.  Just meant that we should have options, we don't have to tough it out with Rosario if he's got a ~70 OPS+ early next year, with no improvement in his peripherals.  I don't know if Rosario is quite that good of a prospect, that we should have to ride out a valley if, say, Kepler keeps raking in AAA.  Rosario he might be near his peak offensive performance unless he improves his peripherals anyway, and it's more or less average (which is good and has value, but if that's also his peak, that reduces his value and future outlook).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

This is painful to read... thanks for showing this. Ha!!

Sorry to pick on you.  It is just a trigger for me when I read the word "fine" in your comments.  I actually agree witg you, more or less, in regards to Rosario vs. Santana.

[gil4]

 

Do you, the TD faithful, think Rosario will fade similar to the fate that befell Santana? Why or why not?

 

I think we all expected some regression from Santana, but I think most of us believed he would hit enough to stick at shortstop and it would be his glove that determined whether or not he made it.  (Kind of like Nunez - he would still be playing shortstop for the Yankees if he could actually play shortstop.  He hit enough to stick there.)

 

It was absolutely shocking how bad Santana was at the plate.  That didn't look like regression - it looked like a different guy, different even from his minor league track record, which wasn't great but wasn't THAT bad.  There was no sane reason to expect him to completely forget how to hit a baseball.

 

So why would we expect the same thing to happen to Rosario?  He's not going to be transitioning to a more demanding position (unless something happens to Dozier, but even then Polanco is probably next up.) He was a much better prospect and had a better minor league hitting record; his minor league numbers are better than what he has done this year.  (Santana's were much worse than what he did last year.) 

 

Santana was an obvious regression candidate because what he did last year was so out of line with what he had done before.  With Rosario, it seems likely this is the true level of his ability and he may be a candidate to improve because of his age.

 

 

[whydidnt]

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

[gil4]

 

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

Good point on the K:BB, although his minor league record is better in that area.  It's something he has to prove at the MLB level, not something he has to learn from scratch.

 

Santana's performance screamed fluke.  We didn't expect him to fall completely on his face (with the bat), but there was some recognition of the peril of moving him back to a position he wasn't very good at.  Rosario is a different guy, he's not going to have to move positions, and his performance looks like natural progression.  The only thing that gives me pause is the drug suspension he had a couple of years ago.

[nicksaviking]

Rosario's BABIP is high, but Santana's was still 50 points higher last year.  Also, Santana likley wouldn't have been as poor this year had his LD% not dropped from 26% to 20%.  Speaking of which, Rosario's LD% in 2015 is also only 20% and that just seems low to me, watching him play and his swing I would have guessed a much higher percentage.  Perhaps one of our minor league guru's can shed some light, but wasn't he considered a linedrive hitter in the minors? Personally, I'd expect that to improve.

 

All that said, I don't like his lack of on base skills.  If there's a logjam in the corner outfield and a team is calling the Twins looking to trade, it might be Rosario who I may be most willing to move. 

[Mike Sixel]

He has a much better pedigree than Santana. I think he is a league average OF.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree that this season is likely a good indicator of his true ability, but the K:BB ratio is a red flag. He isn't likely to collapse the way Santana did, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some regression until he matures and adjusts. The concern I have is that his skill set doesn't align with what you typically want to see from a corner outfielder. He isn't a big power guy, and there are very few players that excel offensively that can't control the strike zone. He may be an exception, but I don't think we've seen enough of him to know for sure. 

 

How did everyone posting feel about Santana last year?  I think there was a lot of optimism about him, with the general consensus that he would regress, but not fall on his face, correct? Does that give you any pause as we consider guys like Rosario?

Most of the board expected manageable regression with Santana but I take some issue with Santana-Rosario comparisons.

 

Santana had a ridiculous .400 BABIP. Rosario has a high .350 BABIP. One is completely unsustainable, the other is too high but not crippling when evaluating future performance. It's possible Rosario is legit a .330 BABIP guy going forward. There are players who consistently thrive in the .320-.340 BABIP range for many years.

 

Santana is a MiLB career .278 hitter who hit .318 in MLB. Rosario is a MiLB career .291 hitter who is hitting .281 in MLB.

 

Rosario had legit power in the minors. His legit power has translated to the majors. Is it a bit inflated right now? Maybe, but not the extent I'm terribly worried about it.

 

Rosario MiLB OPS: .820.

 

Santana MiLB OPS: .710.

 

Rosario has proven his talent in the minors and it's tracking consistently in the majors. Is he a flawed player who swings too much? Yeah, probably... But he's not a complete aberration like Santana was in 2014.

 

People are kinda acting as if Rosario is posting some ungodly .800+ OPS in Minnesota... His OPS is a somewhat pedestrian .754. He's not outpacing his MiLB numbers. He's a good two-way player that derives a ton of his value from running around in the big green part of the field.

[drjim]

Rosario is such an interesting player in today's game. He has valuable skills that are not emphasized as much and his weaknesses are generally overemphasized. 

 

That said, metrics seem to do a decent job of capturing his value, but along a route that is less travelled.

 

I'm not a huge WAR guy, but even I'll acknowledge that a 2.5-3 WAR guy is good to have on a team, especially while pre-arb.

[birddog]

I think being a Twins fan these past 4+ years has taken its toll. It used to be "kid had a great rookie year, can't wait to see how he builds on it." Now it's like we expect regression. In my mind the eyes have it. You look at Rosario's eyes when he steps to the plate, they mean business. He expects to get a hit. Santana's eyes always looked like the proverbial "deer in headlights". Even in 2014 Santana had no look of confidence in him and I think he was just happy to be there.

 

I think the future for Rosario, like Sano, is only going to get better. Their confidence at the plate and the "no big deal" look when they get big hits is what gets me excited about their futures. Don't forget that Eddie hit 21 HRs at Elizabethton in 270 PAs, a 40-HR pace for a whole season. I'm not expecting 40 HRs from Eddie in his career--Sano oh yeah!-- but I think we will see even bigger things from him than what he's showing as a rookie. Maybe not the uncanny consistency he's shown this year, but I like his ceiling.

[kab21]

I think there is reason to be concerned about the so called 'sophomore slump' but for different reasons than Santana. Rosario clearly has more hitting skills than Santana and almost everything backs that up.  One difference is that Santana only had to hit enough to be an acceptable SS while Rosario needs to hit enough to be a corner OF'er. 

 

My thoughts on Santana in the offseason were that he needed to make progress on cutting down the K's and possibly adding a few walks.  For Santana those %'s somehow went the opposite direction.  This is absolutely true of Rosario.  If you take away .025 pts of BAPIP then he is dangerously close to being <.700 OPS as a corner OF'er.  One similarity between the two is that they both swing at more than 40% of the pitches outside of the strike zone.  There are good players that do that but it is hard to be an MLB'er doing that.

 

FWIW - ZiPS, Steamer and Depth Charts (via fangraphs) project him at .245/.280/.380 for the rest of the season. 

 

And just so people don't misunderstand what I call sophomore slump.  Let's group rookies into 3 result categories: underperform expectations (poor rookie year), meet expectations and far exceed reasonable expectations.  Sophomore slumps are basically a regression that you should expect from rookies that far exceeded expectations.  Rosario is exceeding expectations right now and there are a few advanced stats that should give us at least a mild warning.

 

But this is all the more reason that the Twins should have a plan B in AAA (like Kepler) since none of the 3 starters next year (HIcks, Buxton and Rosario) are sure things.

[Jham]

An Arcia like fall is much more likely. The player he most reminds me of as a hitter is Jaque Jones. Good fielder, free swinger, good power to all fields. Like Jones, i expect Rosario's power to improve and for him to gradually start to transition to more of a pull power hitter with his avg likely to drop into the .240 or lower, but good power and defense. Basically Arcia plus defense.

 

No reason he can't hit 20 hr/yr if he learns to wait for his pitch. If he does turn into Arcia, hopefully it takes him less time to adjust to the leagues adjustment.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I think that Rosario is a valuable player due to his defense, and overall decent bat/speed. I am surprised at how excited and optimistic so many in here are about his future though. And yes, statistically '14 Santana and '15 Rosario are very similar with the bat. Santana was actually more successful though.

 

Santana walked at a terribly low rate (4.4%/22.8%) and struck out far too often, especially for a non-power hitter....Rosario is actually walking less and striking out more (3.1%/24.2%) than Santana did. Yes, Rosario has more power potential than Santana, but he doesn't profile as having good power by any means, especially for a corner OF. Keep in mind Santana plays/played up the middle at SS/CF. 

 

Rosarios 2nd half so far are even worse, and that he is already regressing. His 2nd half bb%/K% is 1.6%/26.2%, with 269/279/496 avg/obp/slg. I will admit that he is slugging well, and has been helped by 6 triples in the past two months. Overall, it is not a promising profile for a corner OF'er. 

 

He MIGHT cut down on the k% and he MIGHT raise his bb%, but not likely to a degree that wouldn't still make him a hacker. He might add a little bit more power, but is probably a 15-18 hr max guy. The problem is that when you dont walk and you strikeout a lot, you rely so much on luck, which can be flukey. I wouldn't be surprised if next year he hit .285/.320/.450 with 15 HR's next year or in the near future. But it wouldn't surprise me if he hits .260/.265/.325 either. A player like him might just flip-flop between those types of numbers from year to year, basically dependent on how things drop and what not. 

 

Go to any sortable leaderboard, like Fangraphs, and look at the guys with a 4% or less BB%, and over a 20% K%, which he's actually worse in both areas. Look at those names, any year, and it's a pretty bleak picture. Most of the guys that did fairly well with those rates in a season, rarely sustained their success. 

 

He is not a future all-star OF'er though, like someone stated. Even in his good years, he will not likely come close to the numbers of the best AL OF's. Like I said, useful player, and I like him vs RHP's, as like a #5-7 hitter, but he should probably make a super platoon with Hicks in the future. 

 

Yes Seth, he will be "fine," but "fine" but as a hitter he likely never "good" compared to the other top corner OF's. Nice glove though. 

[mikecgrimes]

The triples are probably a fluke and to the extent they improve his slugging percentage that will regress, that and a slightly lower batting average could look like a significant regression, but it wouldn't be.

[goulik]

No

[bluechipper]

With the cannon of an arm that Eddie has shown off this year, I think a decent comp could be Gerardo Parra. They put up similar OPS in their minor league career (.820 and .815) with Rosario hitting for more power but lower OBP. They aren't the prototype slugging corner OF, but they do many things well and add well above average defense.

[John Kelsey]

It won't be as extreme as Santana but I think he's going to take a step backwards next year. He swings at so many pitches out of the zone I don't even know why anyone throws him strikes. His defense is legit and he's a really talented hitter, but he really needs to learn some plate discipline.