Aaron Hicks 1.0 WAR (and ABW)

[TheLeviathan]

In fairness though, Hicks wasn't just a non-star immediately, he was historically incompetent and obviously overmatched. And the Twins continually jammed him into the lineup regardless - that was the problem. (The team also publicly called out his work habits)

[DaveW]

Yeah, sports talk radio has been around decades before the Internet and Twitter, he would have been getting ripped non stop.

 

Also Twitter is just terrible in general, it's much better to just not be on it at all.

[kab21]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.  He has had a hot 78 PA's.  He has been scorching hot and ice cold at every level in the minors.  I think he is a legit MLB player now though and has finally earned a starting spot unlike previous seasons.

 

There are all kinds of positives stat wise though.  He had been almost historically bad as Levi mentions.  The positives are that he is swinging more at pitches in the zone (60% vs 71%) and not swinging much more outside of the zone.  Due to this he is both walking and K'ing less and hitting a lot more.  I would tend to agree that he was too passive (not sure if I would call that discipline though) his first two seasons.  LD% is also up so he is swinging/hitting with more authority this year also.

 

He still hasn't been great against RHP even with the hot streak so ultimately his value will be decided on whether or not he is just a LHP'ing killer or if he can hang in there against RHP also.

[jorgenswest]

Hicks was intentionally walked to get to Mauer tonight.

[USAFChief]

 

Hicks was intentionally walked to get to Mauer tonight.

Jaw dropping, no?

[jokin]

 

Over past 30 days, Hicks trails only Mike Trout and Lorenzo Cain in CF OPS.  He's at .964 over the last 30 days.

 

I agree with those who saw something different in him this year as soon as he came up.  He didn't look afraid or aloof at the plate.  He was hitting the ball hard when he did but was still showing some patience.  There was more than once where I thought he wasn't getting the calls on some very close pitches that could have lead to walks. 

 

Now, it's just a month but when you combine his age, recent performance, and minor league numbers he seems like a decent shot at being productive enough to be in a corner. 

 

What I love about this is when you have your backup CF playing in a corner it allows you to have a big bat as your 4th outfielder (ARCIA?) rather than a shane robinson type.  A Rosario/Buxton/Hicks outfield would be insane defensively. 

 

Not if you saw Rosario's adventures in RF on Wednesday afternoon (as I witnessed in person, not good).  I think LF is Rosario's best spot- he isn't Alex Gordon out there, but he's so much better than the current alternatives.

[halfchest]

 

Not if you saw Rosario's adventures in RF on Wednesday afternoon (as I witnessed in person, not good).  I think LF is Rosario's best spot- he isn't Alex Gordon out there, but he's so much better than the current alternatives.

 

I did miss that game but yah I heard about it, sounded awful.  The positive he's extremely young and athletic plus he spent part of last year and most of the previous two seasons attempting to convert to 2B.  I'm confident he'll be a plus defender in the corners and at worst be an adequate emergency fill in for CF.  I was more speaking to Hicks being a good enough bat for a corner with plenty of ability to be the backup CF though.  If our outfield for the next 4-5+ years is Rosario/Buxton/Hicks we won't be seeing too many bad outfield plays like we have the last 4 years.

[jokin]

 

I love this site and the forums and social media such as twitter... but the one negative about them is that they create this crazy, unfair immediacy. 

 

There are a lot of guys who struggle through a couple of season in the big leagues and then at some point things just click. Maybe that time is now for Hicks. But he's been unnecessarily beaten up here and on twitter and other places for 2+ years because he didn't come up and immediately star.

 

Imagine if Twitter would have been around when Torii Hunter was in his early years. There are many examples.

 

I think the criticism was necessary.  He was in the Twins doghouse frequently, it wasn't just the putrid performance issues that led to his demotions, he has had "issues" all the way, up to and including this year, both in ST and in June.

 

And all would certainly have been forgiven had he performed anywhere near replacement level- instead, he was one of the worst players in the League, both in 2013 and 2014. 

 

And you can't let Twins management off on this issue, their high expectations for Hicks were completely unfounded in 2013.  And his MiLB track record contained all the requisite warning signs that the Twins failed to heed.  That they continued trotting him out there after it was obvious that he wasn't close to MLB ready was inhumane.  By the same token, you have to give management credit for sticking with him, most teams would have cut him loose after last season.

 

I watched him in person very closely on Wednesday, for the first time since May vs. Tampa Bay. What a completely different player- how odd it was to notice- he was the one and only Twins hitter who looked like he was ready to hit ropes vs. Liriano.  Referring back to my first look at Hicks last May, although he looked like a different, more aggressive hitter from 2014, he was still pretty awful at the plate.  1-10 for the series, with 4 Ks and 0 BBs in 10 PAs.  Are some forgetting?, in his first stint with the Twins, from 5-12 to 6-12, resulted in a .595 OPS and wRC+ of 66?  The BABIP was .293, so his bad results wasn't totally related to bad luck.  But the big indicator that he was a different player from 2014.... his zSwing% was 70.4% and Swing% was 46.7%.  In 2014 his zSwing% was 60.4% and Swing% was 37.3%- (his plate passivity was in the bottom 2 percentile).  Something has clicked in a big way, let's hope he can keep that switch flipped permanently to the "ON" position.

[jokin]

 

Jaw dropping, no?

 

Torch, passed...

[USAFChief]

Torch, passed...

I'm not sure I'd go that far. Certainly not permanently yet.

 

I just don't think that would have been a possibility even a few days ago.

[Platoon]

Hicks route to this level of play, is not uncommon. Hunter, Dozier, and others have followed it. And it's to be considered before we give up on the likes o Santana, Arcia, and Vargas. Is also why it's so important to get these young guys some experience this year, so we can get serious about being a contender. They all need some acclimation time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think crazy, unfair, unrealistic expectations are a part of baseball prospects now.

 

It's a dangerous combination of pushing for prospects to get promoted and not having the patience to see them through.

Now?

 

Pretty sure if Hicks was a first round pick in 1988 and handed the opening day CF and leadoff job in 1993, you would have heard a lot about it if he failed to hit .200.

 

You would have heard less about it since there was no modern internet, but columnists, commentators, heck even coaches/managers would be talking about it (just as they did in 2013).

 

Dave McCarty, Todd Walker...

[TheLeviathan]

Hicks route to this level of play, is not uncommon. Hunter, Dozier, and others have followed it. And it's to be considered before we give up on the likes o Santana, Arcia, and Vargas. Is also why it's so important to get these young guys some experience this year, so we can get serious about being a contender. They all need some acclimation time.

No, it really wasn't common. His career start was one of the worst in baseball history. I think people have sugar coated how awful he was in their memories.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hicks route to this level of play, is not uncommon. Hunter, Dozier, and others have followed it.

No. It is one thing to hit .250 without a lot of power while you acclimate to MLB, but quite another to bat under .200 with lots of K's and declining power.

[USAFChief]

I'll also add that while I've been a Hicks supporter, and he's recently been very good, I'm going to need to see more than a great month before I fully believe it's real.

 

I will say, though, that it seemed to me the ABs have been much better all season, evenifthe results weren't there.

 

And I'll also say, like every player, he'll have slumps in the future and we should be careful about writing him off again when his next one happens. Because it will happen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'll also add that while I've been a Hicks supporter, and he's recently been very good, I'm going to need to see more than a great month before I fully believe it's real.

I will say, though, that it seemed to me the ABs have been much better all season, evenifthe results weren't there.

And I'll also say, like every player, he'll have slumps in the future and we should be careful about writing him off again when his next one happens. Because it will happen.

 

This sums it up for me.  He was always a good prospect, so I cannot argue there.  He was promoted too early, which is why he was soooooo dreadfully bad.  He's showing why it is he was a first rounder right now, and I think at the least he's earned an extended trial.  I could even see Buxton starting in AAA next season, and I'd be fine with that given that he's pretty clearly not ready.

[jokin]

 

This sums it up for me.  He was always a good prospect, so I cannot argue there.  He was promoted too early, which is why he was soooooo dreadfully bad.  He's showing why it is he was a first rounder right now, and I think at the least he's earned an extended trial.  I could even see Buxton starting in AAA next season, and I'd be fine with that given that he's pretty clearly not ready.

 

 

No chance of this happening (barring complete collapse over the rest of 2015), Buck is clearly ready for everything at this point, except pitch recognition (and sliding into bases)-  he should have that part down if he gets enough of a chance over August and September.***

 

*** (FWIW-   The broadcast team pointed out last night that Buxton starts his rehab assignment next week, and that management expects him back up to the Twins, and playing, sooner rather than later) 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

No, it really wasn't common. His career start was one of the worst in baseball history. I think people have sugar coated how awful he was in their memories.

Aaron Hicks was very, very bad. Terrible.

 

But what was most concerning is why he was so bad. He wouldn't take the bat off his shoulder. Have you ever seen a prospect do that? Until I saw Aaron, I never had.

 

[jokin]

 

No, it really wasn't common. His career start was one of the worst in baseball history. I think people have sugar coated how awful he was in their memories.

 

Thankyou.  A lot of memory-hole stuff going on here.

[TheLeviathan]

Aaron Hicks was very, very bad. Terrible.

 

But what was most concerning is why he was so bad. He wouldn't take the bat off his shoulder. Have you ever seen a prospect do that? Until I saw Aaron, I never had.

He was as obviously overmatched and scared as any player I have ever seen debut. And it lasted two freaking years before we did anything about. It was such a disservice to him.

[jokin]

Back to Shane's OP.  Hicks' bWAR now sits at 1.3 and his fWAR is at 1.9.  He's played in less than half the games.  And only been effective enough to produce positive WAR in half the time he's been up with the Twins.  

 

He has the highest fWAR for OFers on the team (Rosario is 2nd at 1.6 fWAR).

 

And 3rd highest overall, behind only Dozier and Plouffe.  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

A remarkable stretch of games in the month of July.   While we are very unlikely to continue to see a nearly 2 WAR/month production rate from Hicks going forward (who wouldn't "settle" for 0.5 WAR/month?).... The good thing is, overall, it doesn't look all that fluky.  He's much more confident defensively in CF... And while  the July BABIP is a little high at .377, but his K-rate and BB-rate for the month are exactly the same at 12.5%.  The dude just seems to be "ON" every hittable pitch thrown to him., even though his swing rate isn't up all that much over his career rate-  44.8%  http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5297&position=OF&type=&gds=2015-07-03&gde=2015-07-30&season=

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

clearly Hunter placed his ability into Hicks' body this month, in some kind of freaky Friday thing.....

[jorgenswest]

No, it really wasn't common. His career start was one of the worst in baseball history. I think people have sugar coated how awful he was in their memories.

That statement needs support.

 

I used play index and searched for players with their OPS+ for their first two years using 300 PAs. Historically bad is a 27. Chick Galloway. Drew Butera is a 32. Ben Zobrist is a 33. Hicks is a 68. That is 408th. Near Ben Revere and Brady Anderson. I don't think anyone would call that historically bad. Bad? Yes. Should have been sent down? Yes. Historic? Not close. There are guys like this every year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Back to Shane's OP.  Hicks' bWAR now sits at 1.3 and his fWAR is at 1.9.  He's played in less than half the games.  And only been effective enough to produce positive WAR in half the time he's been up with the Twins.  

 

He has the highest fWAR for OFers on the team (Rosario is 2nd at 1.6 fWAR).

 

And 3rd highest overall, behind only Dozier and Plouffe.  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

A remarkable stretch of games in the month of July.   While we are very unlikely to continue to see a nearly 2 WAR/month production rate from Hicks going forward (who wouldn't "settle" for 0.5 WAR/month?).... The good thing is, overall, it doesn't look all that fluky.  He's much more confident defensively in CF... And while  the July BABIP is a little high at .377, but his K-rate and BB-rate for the month are exactly the same at 12.5%.  The dude just seems to be "ON" every hittable pitch thrown to him., even though his swing rate isn't up all that much over his career rate-  44.8%  http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5297&position=OF&type=&gds=2015-07-03&gde=2015-07-30&season=

Great post. I was going to dig up those numbers and post them (I glanced at them a few days ago and came to the same conclusion).

[spinowner]

Regarding Hicks' poor showings in 2013 and 2014: While he happened to be very, very not ready for the majors any player will struggle when asked to try to do something he's not ready for. In his case you can blame the Phillies. When Ryan traded Span after the 2012 season I'm sure his plan was to have Revere be the placeholder in center field until Hicks and/or Buxton could take over. But then the Phillies offered not one but two starting pitchers for Revere. A GM almost never turns down another team's offer to overpay in a trade, so Hicks was prematurely promoted. My hunch is that Ryan and Gardenhire knew he wasn't ready and tried to make the best of it but, well, we all saw what happened. I'm just glad that there are so many indications that he's blossoming into a true major leaguer. Glad for him, glad for the Twins but especially glad for me as a Twins fan.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No chance of this happening (barring complete collapse over the rest of 2015), Buck is clearly ready for everything at this point, except pitch recognition (and sliding into bases)-  he should have that part down if he gets enough of a chance over August and September.***

 

*** (FWIW-   The broadcast team pointed out last night that Buxton starts his rehab assignment next week, and that management expects him back up to the Twins, and playing, sooner rather than later) 

 

The sliding into bases thing is going to be a problem wherever he's at, but I have a hard time believing that he cannot work on pitch recognition in AAA, and given how dreadful he was in his first taste (albeit in a very limited sample), I think forcing him to earn the CF job or forcing Hicks to lose it is a better option.  I suspect Buxton will be up with the Twins the remainder of the year just to avoid burning through an option, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's in Rochester next year if he doesn't show much.

[TheLeviathan]

That statement needs support.

I used play index and searched for players with their OPS+ for their first two years using 300 PAs. Historically bad is a 27. Chick Galloway. Drew Butera is a 32. Ben Zobrist is a 33. Hicks is a 68. That is 408th. Near Ben Revere and Brady Anderson. I don't think anyone would call that historically bad. Bad? Yes. Should have been sent down? Yes. Historic? Not close. There are guys like this every year.

I will have to dig up the numbers later but the problem is you broadened it a bit. His first season was the issue, but I'm mobile and digging up the numbers will be tough. I know he was in the bottom 20 or so players ever for quite a stretch.

[jokin]

 

That statement needs support.

I used play index and searched for players with their OPS+ for their first two years using 300 PAs. Historically bad is a 27. Chick Galloway. Drew Butera is a 32. Ben Zobrist is a 33. Hicks is a 68. That is 408th. Near Ben Revere and Brady Anderson. I don't think anyone would call that historically bad. Bad? Yes. Should have been sent down? Yes. Historic? Not close. There are guys like this every year.

 

Hicks' first month of his career, April 2013 ( in 88 PAs):

 

BA .113 OPS .356 wRC+ 5

 

That's a "FIVE", from your guy who batted mostly leadoff that month.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Regarding Hicks' poor showings in 2013 and 2014: While he happened to be very, very not ready for the majors any player will struggle when asked to try to do something he's not ready for. In his case you can blame the Phillies. When Ryan traded Span after the 2012 season I'm sure his plan was to have Revere be the placeholder in center field until Hicks and/or Buxton could take over. But then the Phillies offered not one but two starting pitchers for Revere. A GM almost never turns down another team's offer to overpay in a trade, so Hicks was prematurely promoted. My hunch is that Ryan and Gardenhire knew he wasn't ready and tried to make the best of it but, well, we all saw what happened. I'm just glad that there are so many indications that he's blossoming into a true major leaguer. Glad for him, glad for the Twins but especially glad for me as a Twins fan.

 

And put in no backup plan in case it didn't work. Ryan could have had a backup plan.....and not put Hicks' in that situation.

 

Either way, awesome it is clicking now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The sliding into bases thing is going to be a problem wherever he's at

I have to believe Butch Davis is going to have a nice assortment of wrist guards on his person at all times and will staple two of them to Byron's wrists if need be.