Aaron Hicks 1.0 WAR (and ABW)

[Mike Sixel]

He could just slide feet first, and give up that 1-2 times a year it will matter, to stay in the lineup.

[drjim]

 

He could just slide feet first, and give up that 1-2 times a year it will matter, to stay in the lineup.

 

1-2 times a year? That's not close.

 

Which isn't to say he couldn't/shouldn't go feet first, just the cost is much, much higher than this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is the first time Byron hurt his wrist sliding, correct? I thought the first injury came during a HBP and the second was that ugly collision in the outfield.

[jorgenswest]

Hicks' first month of his career, April 2013 ( in 88 PAs):

 

BA .113 OPS .356 wRC+ 5

 

That's a "FIVE", from your guy who batted mostly leadoff that month.

How do you was that compare to all months from a player in the history of baseball? Why would anyone label a player after a month? I think that is the point. Many jumped to a conclusion far too early.

[Mike Sixel]

 

1-2 times a year? That's not close.

 

Which isn't to say he couldn't/shouldn't go feet first, just the cost is much, much higher than this.

 

How often will it matter if he slides headfirst or feet first, on him being out or not? 4 times? 10 times? No way it is 10 times, no way.

[jorgenswest]

I will have to dig up the numbers later but the problem is you broadened it a bit. His first season was the issue, but I'm mobile and digging up the numbers will be tough. I know he was in the bottom 20 or so players ever for quite a stretch.

OK. New search.

 

I used rookie status which will throw out his second season but add a bunch of guys who would not have qualified because they had September call ups and didn't get to the plate appearance minimum in their first two years. Used 200 PAs so that they had to get beyond rookie status.

 

Hicks' OPS+ of 63 ranks 704th among players with rookie status in baseball history. Historically bad? No.

[jokin]

 

This is the first time Byron hurt his wrist sliding, correct? I thought the first injury came during a HBP and the second was that ugly collision in the outfield.

 

 

He hurt both writsts in 2014- initially hurt the wrist diving for a flyball in ST, and then reinjured it in May on another defensive mishap, hit by a pitch on the other wrist later in the season, plus the concussion going for a flyball that shut him down, plus the fractured finger in the AZL diving for a flyball.

 

No sliding injuries.

[Mike Sixel]

 

OK. New search.

I used rookie status which will throw out his second season but add a bunch of guys who would not have qualified because they had September call ups and didn't get to the plate appearance minimum in their first two years. Used 200 PAs so that they had to get beyond rookie status.

Hicks' OPS+ of 63 ranks 704th among players with rookie status in baseball history. Historically bad? No.

 

Of those 703 that were worse, how many put up more than 2 WAR in their career? I think that is the point. And how many is that 704 out of? Tens of thousands?

[jokin]

 

How do you was that compare to all months from a player in the history of baseball? Why would anyone label a player after a month? I think that is the point. Many jumped to a conclusion far too early.

 

How do you was that compare to all months from a player in the history of baseball? Why would anyone label a player after a month? I think that is the point. Many jumped to a conclusion far too early.

 

The subject was "worst starts in MLB history".  Hicks qualifies based on the month of April, 2013, alone.  And there were many other wretched stretches along the way over 2013 and 2014.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He hurt both writsts in 2014- initially hurt the wrist diving for a flyball in ST, and then reinjured it in May on another defensive mishap, hit by a pitch on the other wrist later in the season, plus the concussion going for a flyball that shut him down, plus the fractured finger in the AZL diving for a flyball.

 

No sliding injuries.

 

it's not just him. Guys get hurt sliding head first, more, longer, than feet first. Again, what is the value trade off here? 4 times a year vs missing months?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

it's not just him. Guys get hurt sliding head first, more, longer, than feet first. Again, what is the value trade off here? 4 times a year vs missing months?

My point - I'm not speaking for anyone else here - is the risk could be easily mitigated by requiring Byron to wear wrist guards whenever he reaches base.

[jokin]

 

it's not just him. Guys get hurt sliding head first, more, longer, than feet first. Again, what is the value trade off here? 4 times a year vs missing months?

 

 

I'm not arguing the point, just pointing out that he didn't get hurt sliding in 2014.

[Loosey]

 

Regarding Hicks' poor showings in 2013 and 2014: While he happened to be very, very not ready for the majors any player will struggle when asked to try to do something he's not ready for. In his case you can blame the Phillies. When Ryan traded Span after the 2012 season I'm sure his plan was to have Revere be the placeholder in center field until Hicks and/or Buxton could take over. But then the Phillies offered not one but two starting pitchers for Revere. A GM almost never turns down another team's offer to overpay in a trade, so Hicks was prematurely promoted. My hunch is that Ryan and Gardenhire knew he wasn't ready and tried to make the best of it but, well, we all saw what happened. I'm just glad that there are so many indications that he's blossoming into a true major leaguer. Glad for him, glad for the Twins but especially glad for me as a Twins fan.

That was the one time Terry Ryan didn't do a Terry Ryan thing and grab some cast off from the scrap heap.  If I remember correctly those trades were both done about a month or 2 before ST started.  TR had plenty of time to find a place holder CF.  Instead he handed the job to Hicks who hadn't even hit well at the AA yet at the time.  Hicks came in and was clearly not ready for major league pitching and that rush almost ruined him.  After Hicks' confidence was a negative level, Ryan finally moved him back to the minors and replaced him with some weird combo of Clete Thomas and Darin Mastroani. 

[Willihammer]

I still think his defense needs work and he may fit better in a corner, but at the plate Hicks is among the 4-5 guys on the team who will actually work a count and put together a competitive AB. Simply laying off balls and punishing strikes is the hallmark of a professional IMO. Much easier said than done obviously. Hicks seems to have solved both halves of that equation which is a huge boon for the Twins and I'm happy that he's silenced doubters like myself.

[jorgenswest]

 

Of those 703 that were worse, how many put up more than 2 WAR in their career? I think that is the point. And how many is that 704 out of? Tens of thousands?

Out of any random group of 704 people who played in the major leagues, many do not put up 2 WAR. There are also several players with very good careers on that list. That was always the point at the time. Declarative statements about a career can not be made based on a bad start.

 

I am not arguing that he wasn't bad. He was. So were Gomez and Hunter. I took issue with the unsupported statement that Hicks was historically bad. 

[jorgenswest]

 

Hicks' first month of his career, April 2013 ( in 88 PAs):

 

BA .113 OPS .356 wRC+ 5

 

That's a "FIVE", from your guy who batted mostly leadoff that month.

 

A .356 OPS for a month is awful. His was the 531st worst month in the history of baseball (50 PAs). Gerald Williams OPS of .145 in August of 1996 is historically bad.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Out of any random group of 704 people who played in the major leagues, many do not put up 2 WAR. There are also several players with very good careers on that list. That was always the point at the time. Declarative statements about a career can not be made based on a bad start.

 

I am not arguing that he wasn't bad. He was. So were Gomez and Hunter. I took issue with the unsupported statement that Hicks was historically bad. 

 

That's not a "random" group though....that's the group of players that started out very, very, badly.

 

For me the question was "what are the odds that someone started this badly would ever turn out to be good", so, ya, that was the question I and others asked 2 years ago. One of the Fangraphs writers, in a chat so it might have been off hand, said that "no one" had started that badly and turned out to be good.

 

Odds, not declarative, definitive, that was my question. It's cool if we don't know the answer, I am merely explaining my question.

[TheLeviathan]

Out of any random group of 704 people who played in the major leagues, many do not put up 2 WAR. There are also several players with very good careers on that list. That was always the point at the time. Declarative statements about a career can not be made based on a bad start.

 

I am not arguing that he wasn't bad. He was. So were Gomez and Hunter. I took issue with the unsupported statement that Hicks was historically bad.

 

The research was done previously on this site that put his putrid start in context. As I recall, by some measure, it was in the all-time bottom 1%. I just don't (and won't) have access to providing it for awhile.

[jokin]

 

A .356 OPS for a month is awful. His was the 531st worst month in the history of baseball (50 PAs). Gerald Williams OPS of .145 in August of 1996 is historically bad.

 

We were talking about starting out a career, not random months.  And even in the context that you use, 531 out of what?, hundreds of thousands of individual one month performance measures, 531st is also historically bad.

[jorgenswest]

My argument than and now is that his start was bad but many players with good careers have had similar bad starts and similar bad months. The Twins need to be patient. If they believe in his talent, They still need to see where he is at after 1000-1500 plate appearances. Those that wrote him off and gave him no chance of a career did not understand his start in the context to the start of many other players who had a similarly awful start.

[TheLeviathan]

I disagree that it was non-contextual. It was in the context of a dreadful approach that involved mostly prayers of pitchers throwing non-strikes and blooping in weak contact, coupled with work habits the team was publicly calling out. There was plenty of reason to toss our hands in the air.

[Platoon]

My point on Hicks as compared to other players who struggled was not to analyze the level of each ones struggle, but to point out that failing is common, being sent down is common, and coming back up and succeeding is possible. Was Hicks the worst player ever to perform in MLB (historically)? I will let you guys fight that out. To expand on my post, even at the beginning of the year, many on here would have thrown Hicks in with Ricky No No in a trade for Jim Huey! (Sp) My point was not to statisize his level of incompetency with the worst of all time, solely to point out that it's possible for the Santana's et al to resurrect their career. As for whether he was rushed here because the devil dangled the apple from the Garden of Eden in front of TR, and he just couldn't resist? While that might have been true, hitting him lead off did no one any favors. Managers who put players in situations that they are not suited for, and then look for someone to blame, should always be standing in front of a mirror during the search!

[Rosterman]

The Hunter Factor!

[Platoon]

The splitting of so many hairs, in so many directions, by so many posters, is historically the worst in history! . For our next topic, how about the best start, historically, in history, for a player that then gets historically bad! This could be historically, the most hysterical thread yet produced.

[jimbo92107]

Aaron Hicks discovered something that a lot of hitters never seem to figure out (like Danny Santana): If you turn your butt towards the pitcher, raise your front leg, and hold the bat in the pads of your fingers (rather than the meat of your palms), then it's easier to deliver a powerful blow to the baseball. But even better, it's also EASIER to check your swing. Plus, the extra velocity you impart to the ball will drive more grounders through the infield and more fly balls over and around the outfielders.

 

It may seem contradictory that preparing for a powerful swing makes you a better hitter. Aren't you committing your weight and motion earlier? Slightly. But you're also better reserving your finish, which is the part where your bat cruises with power through the hitting zone. The bigger coil allows you better to hit outwards to the ball, which in turn makes the barrel carry farther along the hitting line. That gets you fatter contact and a wider spray pattern. Better still, because the power is created so far back, you don't have to try to generate power late with your arms, which Hicks used to do. Instead, you just work on channeling that early power, the way he's doing now.

 

Best part is, you can still push the Cancel button quickly on a butt swing, the way Bryce Harper does. You just don't let the barrel carry, instead yanking it back. This is actually easier for him, because the bat head doesn't start its propeller motion until late in the swing. It's butt/kick, shoulders, hands, bat head. If the pitch looks bad, you keep the bat head back.

 

You should be able to tell how powerful a guy's swing is by how impressive his check swing is. Everything looks powerful except that last flip of the wrists. Hicks is now starting to get that. Fun to watch.