Hicks

[Craig Arko]

 

So is the new question, "What if Byron Buxton makes an error that later gets changed by the scorekeeper"?

Does it make a sound?

[adorduan]

 

Again … I put the onus of that on the RP, not Hicks. I'm not saying that Hicks should stay out there forever and that his non-catch is 'forgivable.' I'm saying that it's not equal to the relief pitching problem and that they should take a much higher percentage in the loss. And everyone else who didn't hit when there were opportunities to score more runs earlier in the game. I just think you are laying too much at one person's feet.

Like Hicks with the bases loaded in the top of the 7th inning?

[John Bonnes]

There are a few different topics here under the topic of "Hicks":

 

1) Defense - It's been very good, period. Yes, last night's gaffe brings flashbacks to worse defensive years, but I've watched it several times. He got a good jump, he got to a ball most would not have (as the Rangers announcers even mentioned), he had it ranged just right, and it just missed his glove. It could happen to anyone, and it is offset by several other plays he has made. He has been a huge upgrade defensively for this team....

 

2) Offense -....and not much of a downgrade offensively. I think, for the first time, we're seeing a "true" offensive battle between him and the pitchers. Year one, he was lost. Year two, they didn't think they needed to throw to him. But this year he's settled in to about a .250 batting average and a 3:1 K:BB rate, AND his numbers (albeit limited) against RHs and LHs are pretty similar. This is the "growing pains" time that we hoped to see two years ago. In fact, I think if we saw this two years ago, it would have been a vastly different reaction around here. He's not good, but this is the time he needs to grow. 

 

I'll add one more thing: yeah, Rosario has a 140 points more in OPS. He also has a 8:1 K:BB rate. I'll also remind people that two months ago, Hicks was slaughtering AAA while Rosario was lost there. I don't for a second think Rosario is likely to be any better than Hicks over the next 3 months or two years, for that matter. We need to calm down about both of them, only in opposite directions. 

 

3) Buxton - Lord, we love the greener grass on the other side of the fence, don't we? I'm as psyched to see him as anyone, but I'll add this: he's irrelevant to the discussion of Hicks. The Twins need hitters and especially outfielders. All three spots are open. Rosario is no lock. Arcia is no lock. Hunter is 40. There is plenty of room for Hicks and Buxton in a future outfield for the Twins right now.

 

And that's ignoring the other gorilla in the room: Buxton might struggle in his initial exposure to the majors, too. If the point is "Let's call up Buxton and see what he can do and send Hicks back down to do it," I think that would be an interesting question. But I don't think the presence of Buxton means Hicks is a fourth outfielder. How Hicks hits is what is going to make him a starter or a fourth outfielder. And with Hicks being just 25 years old, there is still time.

 

4) Flashpoint - I think the point that we can have a bullpen discussion in a different thread is a good one. However, I think the unsaid point here is that Hicks is drawing more negative attention than he deserves due to historical performance and expectations (and frustrations) coloring his current performance. AND that it's made worse by a losing streak which can be laid at the feet of a lot of other guys more than Hicks. And I would agree with that statement. 

 

(By the way, this could make a great blog post if someone wanted to break down these a bit. Hell, it could be a four-part series if someone wanted to break down each of them a lot.) 

[twinsnorth49]

Does it make a sound?

Only if nobody's around.

[stringer bell]

I'll disagree with John on one point, but it is an important one. I think Rosario can and will hit more than Hicks.  It might be the hands, it might be aggressiveness, but Hicks doesn't hit balls hard nearly as often as Eddie does. Rosario will never walk much, but he isn't chasing out of the zone nearly as much as he did right after he was called up.

[Mike Sixel]

John, I don't understand the history part. Of course his awful history of hitting is being taken into account, as it should.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I concede that Hicks may end up being a career 4th OF. However, IMO, Hicks is not the 25th guy to be sent down for Buxton. Hicks is #6 in OBP on this team  ...which is insane (with my admittedly arbitrary cutoff of 70 PA).

 

In terms of lineup futility, Robinson, Suzuki, Santana (when he was here), and Escobar are on a lower level than Hicks...which is hard to believe. I'll grant that Buxton doesn't play catcher or SS so Zuke and Escobar (as a SS) are safe. Still, they should be able to cut the bullpen by one or drop Robinson before they go after Hicks.

 

Rosario is being inflated by a team-leading BABIP. He's walked three times this year, and I think he could come crashing down. Not that he should go to AAA, but just to moderate any opinions asserting that Rosario (in his current form) is the new long term compliment to Buxton. That said, he's done a lot more with his first ML opportunity than Hicks did.

if Buxton comes up, and Hicks is the 4th outfielder, doesn't Robinson get cut? Rosario has been up long, and effective enough, where he gets a pretty long leash.

[USAFChief]

 

John, I don't understand the history part. Of course his awful history of hitting is being taken into account, as it should.

His major league history is less than 650 PAs, and I think you need to take into account his solid if unspectacular minor league history too, no?

 

Carlos Gomez OPS+ his first five years:  55, 77, 65, 76, 82.

 

The book on Hicks career hasn't started well, to be sure, but it might not be entirely written yet, either.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

His major league history is less than 650 PAs, and I think you need to take into account his solid if unspectacular minor league history too, no?

 

Carlos Gomez OPS+ his first five years:  55, 77, 65, 76, 82.

 

The book on Hicks career hasn't started well, to be sure, but it might not be entirely written yet, either.

Right, the book is not done yet, but we should not ignore the chapters already written. Remember, a lot of teams thought he was a pitcher in the draft.......

[hotshot031]

I didnt think he was "terrible..." I didnt think he was impressive but he is showing improvement and I would like to see him out there more often than shane robinson.....or Schefer....

[Shane Wahl]

Seriously?

 

He likely ends up being a 4 OF down the road unless the Twins unload Arcia and Kepler. But he isn't one now.

 

One bad mistake . . . sheesh.

[blairpaul715]

Well, my uneducated guess, is Buxton to CF , Hicks if not IR'd to RF, Rosario LF and Hunter to DH, Vargas may end up going back down or stay as a bench bat, but I think sent down if Hunter is the primary DH. Robinson stays as 4th OF with of course(and i hate this) Escobar 5th OF.

[peterb18]

The start of the collapse was the relief pitching... more specifically, Tompson's walk. As far as Hicks is concerned, simply put, " he can't hit the curve ball". I don't know if he will ever be able to ......

[Raven]

Last nights misplay gave me a flashback of Willie Norwood's adventures in center field.  Yes, it could be worse.

[jokin]

Sorry about your camel's broken back, but player personnel evals require a little more patience and wisdom than that. You don't blow a fluke play all out of proportion. Mr. Hicks went back on a ball hit over his head and made a good play just to get there. Stuff happens. Bux may get a Sept call up, but not before. Hicks is helping this team, whether you know it or not.

Lots of words left to be eaten in this post.

[spinowner]

 

Last nights misplay gave me a flashback of Willie Norwood's adventures in center field.  Yes, it could be worse.

Chris Colabello is the one who gave me Willie Norwood flashbacks.

[jokin]

Or not.

 

@MillerStrib: Official scorer has changed his mind: Hicks' dropped fly ball was a double, not an error. All runs now earned.

 

And Twins are appealing that ruling.

[jokin]

Well, my uneducated guess, is Buxton to CF , Hicks if not IR'd to RF, Rosario LF and Hunter to DH, Vargas may end up going back down or stay as a bench bat, but I think sent down if Hunter is the primary DH. Robinson stays as 4th OF with of course(and i hate this) Escobar 5th OF.

Escobar won't be 5th OF if he he's playing full time at SS.

[TheLeviathan]

Right, the book is not done yet, but we should not ignore the chapters already written. Remember, a lot of teams thought he was a pitcher in the draft.......

Hicks certainly hits the ball like a pitcher.

[TheDean]

 

if Buxton comes up, and Hicks is the 4th outfielder, doesn't Robinson get cut? Rosario has been up long, and effective enough, where he gets a pretty long leash.

 

Definitely. That's why I was saying that I don't think Rosario goes to AAA any time soon. You can't send a guy down because he's being too successful. You just need to be prepared in case of an extreme drop off. We'll see what the move is soon enough based on whether Hicks gets DL time. Rosario has to be safe IMO. To me it's a bullpen guy or Robinson, but I'm not the GM.

[blairpaul715]

 

Escobar won't be 5th OF if he he's playing full time at SS.

Or Nunez, but they put Nunez at SS today, so that is why i said Escobar, when they wanted a 5th today, they went Escobar and not Nunez..........but it is also possible that Polanco comes back up soon and then Escobar would be that 5th OF if Robinson was let go. Mr Super Utility guy.

[jokin]

 

Or Nunez, but they put Nunez at SS today, so that is why i said Escobar, when they wanted a 5th today, they went Escobar and not Nunez..........but it is also possible that Polanco comes back up soon and then Escobar would be that 5th OF if Robinson was let go. Mr Super Utility guy.

 

Saturday really can't be judged as meaning anything going forward- 30 minutes to game time they lost 2 starting OFers.... and least of all, Nunez becoming the new regular SS seems the least likely scenario.  I would think Escobar is going to get regular reps for at least a month after this OF thing shakes out and settles down.

 

Crazy stuff like what happened Saturday sure shows why you keep guys like Escobar and Nunez around for at least the time being.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Seriously though, Hicks has had the massive bullseye on him from the day they drafted Buxton, the universally agreed upon heir apparent just waiting to assume his rightful place.

Hicks was only ever going to save himself as a starter by proving he could hit, with at least a modicum of power so he could possibly be a corner OF. He doesn't and his future is either as a 4th OF or elsewhere.

That isn't just based on last night's play

MLB is a ruthless occupation. For every player the system spits out another is given a chance. We just watch and marvel. I very much look forward to Buxton's arrival; however, there is no reliable way to predict how he will perform.

[HitInAPinch]

I think the Twins management should to Hicks a favor and trade him to another team.  Maybe bag a A & AA players.  I believe Hicks needs a reboot.

[adorduan]

 

There are a few different topics here under the topic of "Hicks":

 

1) Defense - It's been very good, period. Yes, last night's gaffe brings flashbacks to worse defensive years, but I've watched it several times. He got a good jump, he got to a ball most would not have (as the Rangers announcers even mentioned), he had it ranged just right, and it just missed his glove. It could happen to anyone, and it is offset by several other plays he has made. He has been a huge upgrade defensively for this team....

 

2) Offense -....and not much of a downgrade offensively. I think, for the first time, we're seeing a "true" offensive battle between him and the pitchers. Year one, he was lost. Year two, they didn't think they needed to throw to him. But this year he's settled in to about a .250 batting average and a 3:1 K:BB rate, AND his numbers (albeit limited) against RHs and LHs are pretty similar. This is the "growing pains" time that we hoped to see two years ago. In fact, I think if we saw this two years ago, it would have been a vastly different reaction around here. He's not good, but this is the time he needs to grow. 

 

I'll add one more thing: yeah, Rosario has a 140 points more in OPS. He also has a 8:1 K:BB rate. I'll also remind people that two months ago, Hicks was slaughtering AAA while Rosario was lost there. I don't for a second think Rosario is likely to be any better than Hicks over the next 3 months or two years, for that matter. We need to calm down about both of them, only in opposite directions. 

 

3) Buxton - Lord, we love the greener grass on the other side of the fence, don't we? I'm as psyched to see him as anyone, but I'll add this: he's irrelevant to the discussion of Hicks. The Twins need hitters and especially outfielders. All three spots are open. Rosario is no lock. Arcia is no lock. Hunter is 40. There is plenty of room for Hicks and Buxton in a future outfield for the Twins right now.

 

And that's ignoring the other gorilla in the room: Buxton might struggle in his initial exposure to the majors, too. If the point is "Let's call up Buxton and see what he can do and send Hicks back down to do it," I think that would be an interesting question. But I don't think the presence of Buxton means Hicks is a fourth outfielder. How Hicks hits is what is going to make him a starter or a fourth outfielder. And with Hicks being just 25 years old, there is still time.

 

4) Flashpoint - I think the point that we can have a bullpen discussion in a different thread is a good one. However, I think the unsaid point here is that Hicks is drawing more negative attention than he deserves due to historical performance and expectations (and frustrations) coloring his current performance. AND that it's made worse by a losing streak which can be laid at the feet of a lot of other guys more than Hicks. And I would agree with that statement. 

 

(By the way, this could make a great blog post if someone wanted to break down these a bit. Hell, it could be a four-part series if someone wanted to break down each of them a lot.) 

What makes you think this??

[ALessKosherScott]

The biggest flaw I see with today's prospect fandom culture is that we're too quick to assign superstardom on kids while they still have holes in their game that major league pitchers will exploit. And too quick to cast them aside when those holes are exploited.

 

Hicks hasn't been great so far in the majors. And maybe that will continue to be the case. But he's also 25, and when Trevor Plouffe was 25 no one saw him as a capable starting third baseman. No one saw Carlos Gomez as a potential All-Star at 25. No one saw David Ortiz as a future Hall-of-Famer at 25. Hicks probably isn't going to be the long-term answer to Puckett. But I like the chances of him learning to hit for some pop and becoming a good right fielder more than I like the chances of Arcia learning how to field. 

[TheLeviathan]

Hicks hasn't been great so far in the majors. And maybe that will continue to be the case. But he's also 25, and when Trevor Plouffe was 25 no one saw him as a capable starting third baseman. No one saw Carlos Gomez as a potential All-Star at 25. No one saw David Ortiz as a future Hall-of-Famer at 25. Hicks probably isn't going to be the long-term answer to Puckett. But I like the chances of him learning to hit for some pop and becoming a good right fielder more than I like the chances of Arcia learning how to field.

 

What has he done to indicate he will be that rare exception and not just another flamed out prospect? The guy hits the ball with the authority of a whiffle ball.

[ALessKosherScott]

 

What has he done to indicate he will be that rare exception and not just another flamed out prospect? The guy hits the ball with the authority of a whiffle ball.

 

The scouting reports coming up have mentioned 20-homerun power. He had 16 extra-base hits in Rochester earlier this year in 123 plate appearances, good for an ISO of .225. The power is there. Now the question is can he unlock it at the major league level.

[TheLeviathan]

The scouting reports coming up have mentioned 20-homerun power. He had 16 extra-base hits in Rochester earlier this year in 123 plate appearances, good for an ISO of .225. The power is there. Now the question is can he unlock it at the major league level.

That's fine, but the step up to the majors has ended many a good prospects. We're at 600 at bats in the majors and it has been absolutely dreadful.

[adorduan]

 

The scouting reports coming up have mentioned 20-homerun power. He had 16 extra-base hits in Rochester earlier this year in 123 plate appearances, good for an ISO of .225. The power is there. Now the question is can he unlock it at the major league level.

 

Yet in over 2100 minor league at bats he hit a grand total of 41 home runs.  Sometimes the scouts are wrong.