Are you ready to change your win prediction?

[spinowner]

 

 Will the real Ricky Nolasco please stand up?

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I thought they had a decent shot at being a .500 team and my opinion hasn't changed. I think you'll see the benefit of reinforcements this year that you haven't seen in past years. Pinto will likely be up soon, as will Oliveras. If Hicks keeps hitting, he just solved a huge problem both with the bat and with his glove. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw one of Meyer, Berrios, Duffey, or Rogers up at some point this year too.

 

This is a transition year. What will be nice is that you'll see some of the roster fodder released for some genuine prospects.

[SheboyganBrats]

At the beginning of the season, I expected the Twins to be an improved team, I just wasn't sure how many additional wins they would get.  I just expected a lot more games where they would be "watchable".  I'm still not sure how many more wins they'll get this year.  If I had to put a number on it, I'd say 77.  What I really hope they can avoid is last year's pattern: being relevant until the All-Star break and then going into the tank.  If they can remain competitive in August and September, and not look like the walking dead, I'll be satisfied.

[jorgenswest]

Too early to project. They were 23-21 last year before tumbling.

[brvama]

I'm not into predictions but I felt that this would not be a 90 loss season with a chance of .500 season. I was hoping was improved play and getting our young talents feet wet. So far so good. Too early still to get too excited because their are some holes, but growth will make me happy. Still think we are in the midst of a big turn-around.

[kab21]

 

I had 72-73 wins before the season started. After one week, I had about 67-67 wins. Now, I'll say 75-76.

I was in the 75+ range (IIRC) at the beginning but after those first couple of weeks I was in full blown 'here we go again' disgust already planning discussions on how high the draft pick would be (again).  Now I'm okay adding a couple of wins but not quite .500. 

[jokin]

 

How sad.

But true.

[bertrecords]

I think the Twins will have a losing record and contend for last place.  The talent is not there.  The ML pitching staff, except for Hughes and May, totally lacks upside.  Strikeout to walk ratios scream last place.  Maybe, Ervin will have a good year; maybe a bad year.

 

Let's say I'm right and the team finishes with 90 losses yet again.  It could still be a more successful season than the last several if Hicks, Arcia, Pinto, Berrios, Sano, Buxton and the bullpen make progress toward establishing themselves as strong major league talent.  If Santana and Vargas validate that they belong, then even better.  The last four 90 loss seasons were hard to watch.  Last place didn't feel nearly as terrible in 1982 when a plan for success was evident. 

 

 

[jokin]

 

 2 series with Cleveland in September.

 

So, while our worst play has been in division road games, soon we'll have gotten past the worst of it until September - a truly crucial month for any contending team - and then, ironically, the team we play twice is the Indians, who we have so far fared the best against. So, let's just sit back and take a breather while we can...and enjoy some more Twins wins.

 

Lots of things change over a long season, the Tribe has demonstrated a recent history of strong finishes.  The Indians have 4 potentially good to very good SPs, including the defending Cy Young winner (particularly when compared to the Twins SPs), and now, old friend Shaun Marcum has resurrected his career and been called up after a strong showing in AAA.  If he clicks along with the other 4 SPs, there won't be as many easy games against the Indians as there have been to this point.  (Kluber just threw another no-decision gem tonight).

[formerly33]

 

Lots of things change over a long season, the Tribe has demonstrated a recent history of strong finishes.  The Indians have 4 potentially good to very good SPs, including the defending Cy Young winner (particularly when compared to the Twins SPs), and now, old friend Shaun Marcum has resurrected his career and been called up after a strong showing in AAA.  If he clicks along with the other 4 SPs, there won't be as many easy games against the Indians as there have been to this point.  (Kluber just threw another no-decision gem tonight).

Well then, I guess we'll have to rely on the Tigers slumping.

[Halsey Hall]

I can't change mine, I've got money on no more than 71 wins. 

[blairpaul715]

 

I hope you're right about Santana, but I fear about counting too much on a guy who has likely enhanced his previous production, and will now have no choice but to pitch PED-free---   unless maybe if he hires ARod's "nutrition consultant."

Well , i know PED are for strength, but are they not also for endurance during a long season, of  33-34 starts??? So with Santana only getting 16-17 starts , he shouldnt or wouldnt need the enhancement for this yr........so i dont think , IMO , that it hurts his performance this yr, but maybe for future yrs.

[blairpaul715]

I also didnt make a prediction this yr, but i was HOPING for .500.............i think we make to many mistakes to probably get there, but I am hoping.........its funny if we win 7 in a row, and then lose 2 in a row, i still get pissed LOL..............and I should have a smile on my face cuz we were 7-2

[h2oface]

 

I had 72-73 wins before the season started. After one week, I had about 67-67 wins. Now, I'll say 75-76.

Well that is pretty fair weather picking. As long as one can just change at anytime in this Twins Daily prediction world, I think I will change my prediction at the end of September, maybe even the last day of the season....... 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, that Seth is a real fair weather Twins fan.

[drivlikejehu]

Per BaseRuns on FG - linear weights adjusted for the fact that a better offense gets more PAs - the Twins are playing at the level of a 15-24 team. 

 

That would translate to a 162-game record of 64-98.

 

Note that this is actually far below the projections Fangraphs has based on zips and steamer. They see the Twins as a 73-win caliber team from here on out, and with the banked wins, ending up with 77.

 

The Twins have been very, very lucky so far. But Twins management surely does not realize this, which in turn is contributing to bad roster decisions. Understanding basic statistical concepts of this sort is crucial to successfully running a team these days.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins have been very, very lucky so far. But Twins management surely does not realize this, which in turn is contributing to bad roster decisions. Understanding basic statistical concepts of this sort is crucial to successfully running a team these days.

Agree that they've been very lucky.

 

Disagree that the Twins don't realize this. We have absolutely no idea what they say behind closed doors or what they believe about this team. It's not like they're going to publicly admit "Yeah, we're 22-17 but damn, we're actually pretty terrible. I don't understand why our players even bother to try at this point."

[JB_Iowa]

 

 It's not like they're going to publicly admit "Yeah, we're 22-17 but damn, we're actually pretty terrible. I don't understand why our players even bother to try at this point."

 

More likely that they are saying, "We're proving all those sabermetrics guys wrong -- keep it up"

[USAFChief]

Per BaseRuns on FG - linear weights adjusted for the fact that a better offense gets more PAs - the Twins are playing at the level of a 15-24 team. 

 

That would translate to a 162-game record of 64-98.

 

.

The Twins had the third most PAs in the AL last year, scored the 5 th most runs. If anything, they should be adjusting up, not down.

[gunnarthor]

 

Per BaseRuns on FG - linear weights adjusted for the fact that a better offense gets more PAs - the Twins are playing at the level of a 15-24 team. 

 

That would translate to a 162-game record of 64-98.

 

Note that this is actually far below the projections Fangraphs has based on zips and steamer. They see the Twins as a 73-win caliber team from here on out, and with the banked wins, ending up with 77.

 

The Twins have been very, very lucky so far. But Twins management surely does not realize this, which in turn is contributing to bad roster decisions. Understanding basic statistical concepts of this sort is crucial to successfully running a team these days.

I have no idea how fangraphs calculates those stats but I would guess that some of the same factors that give them a lower pitching WAR is used (lack of strike outs probably being huge and their fip calculations) -  So if you think Gibson and Hughes are replacement level pitchers right now (as fangraphs does) that probably affects the longterm outlook of the team. 

 

We already see a 2 WAR difference between fWAR and bWAR on the pitchers and a less extreme split on the hitters (although that's probably related more to defense).

 

I would be nice to see how predictive baseruns was but I don't see fangraphs having it listed for previous years standings.  

[D. Hocking]

Before the season started, I believe I was thinking 75 to 80 wins, with the possibility of doing a little better and breaking .500 if they got enough breaks from the baseball god of luck.  That is what I am still thinking. 

 

However, it is better than the 3 and 159 record I was anticipating after the first series of the season.

[jimmer]

gunnarthur, some info.

 

'Until early 2013, it used to be that another significant difference between the two systems was that each calculated Replacement Level differently. That has since been changed, and both sites now calculate replacement level the same way:

 

This new unified replacement level is now set at 1,000 WAR per 2,430 Major League games, which is the number of wins available in a 162 game season played by 30 teams. Or, an easier way to put it is that our new replacement level is now equal to a .294 winning percentage, which works out to 47.7 wins over a full season.

 

As a result of the differences listed above, rWAR values typically come in lower than fWAR values, meaning a 6 rWAR is more impressive than 6 fWAR. But it’s worth noting that the two systems are more alike than they are different, and that their different calculations should be viewed as a feature, not a bug.'

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

Also, this year, Fangraphs has pitchers who create infield popups as a skill, so those cosnsitently good at that will have their WAR helped as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

More likely that they are saying, "We're proving all those sabermetrics guys wrong -- keep it up"

No one who has been around baseball for long enough to hold a front office position believes anyone is proven right or wrong in less than 1/4 of a season.

 

Also, I doubt that Ryan has so much contempt for his own employees (Goin & Co) that he smugly tries to prove them wrong.

[PogueBear]

I wrote 440+ words about the Twins' record and projected season in my May 14 blog. 

 

 http://twinsdaily.com/blog/522/entry-6548-the-annexation-of-puerto-rico/

[DaveW]

I said they would likely get 78 to 82 wins prior to the season and if things broke right in several ways (pitching, rookie break outs etc) they could get 86-88 wins and maybe sneak into the wild card.

 

As of now they look like a .500 team who have been lucky, the good news is it only takes one pitcher like berrios, Meyer or a player like Buxton or Mauer to catch fire and dominate in a way that pushes them into that next tier overall.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks Jimmer,

 

I've been trying to think of how to formulate my concern not so much with the stat itself but the weight we should give it or maybe how we should perceive it.

 

(And it's possible I'm the only one reading these predictions in this way when we should remember they are projections instead).

 

According to current standings, the Twins are a 91-71 team.

According to current pyth w/l, the Twins are a 83-79 team.

According to current base runs, the Twins are a 64-98 team.  

 

So, going forward, which is right?  Are the Twins a really lucky but secretly horrible team as base runs implies?  Are they a playoff team as their current record suggests?  Are they a .500ish team as I predicted?

 

I think my concern is someone might look at the stat as a snapshot today and say, "Oh, team X is playing well/bad" when that isn't necessarily the case.  The Twins offense has been #1 in runs in May and #4 in OPS (not adjusted for parks).  That, unsurprisingly, has coincided with Dozier, Hunter and Plouffe starting to come out of early season slumps.  It's likely that Mauer and Santana are also going to get better.  The Twins had a -29 run differential after the first 7 games.  They've had a +34 over the last 32. (While playing the 5th hardest schedule).  I would imagine a lot of baseruns standings are still relying heavily on that first week.

 

I know baseruns changes daily and as such should be reminded that it's just a snapshot.  A team can make changes - the A's last year in the link you sent me were a 103 win team by baseruns.  They finished with 88 after they made some dubious personnel moves.  The Twins team today isn't the one that will finish the season.  Danny Santana, Arcia, Gibson, HIcks will improve simply b/c they are still inexperienced players gaining experience in the majors.  So, outside of that first week, I don't think the Twins have played like a 98 loss team.  I think they are a .500ish team going through expected growing spurts - sometimes hot and sometimes cold.  And I think the FO will make changes to the team as the season goes on that baseruns can't account for.  

[Mike Sixel]

The early season FG projections contain assumptions about moves teams will make, and ABs for guys in the minors, and other stuff. Not sure about the specific projections you are discussing.

 

The easiest way I think about it......if you thought they were a .500 team, and have banked 7 extra wins, then you probably should think they will finish 7 games over (unless you think this much of the season should change your thinking on being .500, even with the still SSS).

[jimmer]

'(And it's possible I'm the only one reading these predictions in this way when we should remember they are projections instead).'

 

That's a common misconception.  These projection systems are just that, they aren't predictions, yet they get slammed because people see them as predictions.  I've talked to the creator of ZiPS about this a bit and when ZiPS came out prior to 2015 season, and it projected no AL team to have even 90 wins and Seattle was projected to have the most in the AL, he made it clear he wasn't actually predicting that, just that his system projected that.  People who deal in this stuff now there are variables that can't be account for in their projections (like injuries as one of many examples) so they don't use it as a prediction.

 

Glad you liked the info I posted and PMd you, gunnarthur

[ashbury]

I think an analysis simpler than Fangraphs' can shed light. On offense, the Twins currently rank 3^rd in the league in runs per game. Yet, their OPS is 11^th, close to league average. Unless they have been scoring on things like base running or extreme clutchness that OPS doesn't include, there is an inconsistency here that I don't understand.

 

On the other side of the ball, they are 9^th in runs-against per game, essentially league-average. But their OPS-against is 14^th, next to last. Once again there is something to be reconciled.

 

I trust OPS a little better than raw runs scored - I can make an argument that they've bunched their offensive production in an essentially lucky way that maximized their run scoring, easier than I can work backward and try to figure out how some home runs got counted unluckily as singles when the run-scoring occurred.

 

The current wins are in the bank, as others have noted, but if the pace of wins falls off, it may not be due to a collective slump, but to the runs normalizing to the hits being gotten and given up. Of course the OPS numbers will not remain static either - but they will have to improve a lot just to reach the current level of run production/prevention and keep this current good streak going.

[Willihammer]

Extreme "clutchness" I think.

 

Last year the team was below average at scoring runners from 3rd with less than two outs (46% IIRC). This year they're scoring them at a ~60% clip which is among the best in baseball.

 

They're batting .743 with men on and .666 with bases empty.

 

.1.062 with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 2 outs.

 

.793 with RISP, compared to .700 overall.

 

The Cardinals coasted on great numbers with RISP well into June last year. Looks like maybe the Twins number came up this year (finally).