Rotation on a leash

[jorgenswest]

I am hopeful that the current 5 in the starting rotation will all do well. I am hoping Pelfrey has a career year, Nolasco returns to 2013 form and Milone pitches like he did for the A's. I am also hoping the Twins have a plan in the remote chance they don't pitch well.

 

How long is the leash? How many starts should the three individually be given before looking for a different solution?

 

My fear is that they will wait until June 1.

 

On June 1 there might be some logic that goes like this...

 

We can't count on Pelfrey (or Milone/Nolasco) in the starting rotation. We need to find a replacement. We only need that replacement for a month when Santana returns. We don't want to bring up Meyer until we can be sure he comes up to stay up. Therefore we will call up a short term replacement like Logan Darnell to pitch until Santana is ready and keep Meyer in the minors. Does that sound like logic that the Twins front office might use?

 

Back to the question, how many starts for those three? Does Nolasco get more because of the contract commitment?

 

Jason Marquis was given 7 starts in 2012. I hope it is similar for these three. Seven starts will put the season just before the quarter pole and not close to when Santana returns.

[gunnarthor]

Barring injuries, I think Milone and Pelfrey get about 4 or 5 starts and then the team goes to May or Meyer (or Berrios).  Nolasco and Gibson probably get two months before a change is ordered (either a demotion or a trip to the bullpen).  Hughes is in the rotation all year.

 

(Of course, if May/Meyer/Berrios are scuffling/injured, those timelines might change.  But let's pray that doesn't happen).

[Willihammer]

You can't put a set number of starts on it IMO. I think you have to pay attention to the same granular data that I hope the Twins have been paying attention to all spring, to determine what's real and what's a mirage. Velocity, SwStr%, well hit average, etc.

[jorgenswest]

You can't put a set number of starts on it IMO. I think you have to pay attention to the same granular data that I hope the Twins have been paying attention to all spring, to determine what's real and what's a mirage. Velocity, SwStr%, well hit average, etc.

I think this means you don't wait as long as 7 starts. Do you think they will have less patience with these three than they did with Marquis?

 

Marquis had an 8.47 ERA after 7 starts. At the end of April his ERA was 6.23. His last start was May 20. We're the Twins paying attention to the granular data with him?

[Mike Sixel]

Mid May.....they just aren't making a change before that, imo. MAYBE if Pelfrey is terrible and May is awesome for 4-5 starts, but I doubt it.

 

It isn't their style to cut bait on legit MLB players (i.e., not Kubel/Bartlett level) in less than a month.

[Seth Stohs]

I think Pelfrey will get 3-4 starts to see. I think Milone would get more leeway, probably mid-May. Nolasco will get a bunch of rope. 

 

Someone above mentioned Darnell, but Logan Darnell is now pitching in the bullpen. 

[Willihammer]

 

I think this means you don't wait as long as 7 starts. Do you think they will have less patience with these three than they did with Marquis?

Marquis had an 8.47 ERA after 7 starts. At the end of April his ERA was 6.23. His last start was May 20. We're the Twins paying attention to the granular data with him?

I hope so! I mainly just hope their decision wasn't driven by Marquis' ERA or fan sentiment, clubhouse politics, favorites, etc. and instead by something concrete like  x/y movement, velocity, SwStr%, etc.

 

If the Twins have been tracking ST pitch data then they probably wouldn't need many, if any, more starts to get to a reasonable confidence level. I don't know the exact points but I imagine something like x-movement would stabilize almost after 1 start and SwStr% would quickly follow, and maybe velocity a bit after that. It should not take long although if they are using ERA that will obviously take longer.

[jorgenswest]

I think Pelfrey will get 3-4 starts to see. I think Milone would get more leeway, probably mid-May. Nolasco will get a bunch of rope. 

 

Someone above mentioned Darnell, but Logan Darnell is now pitching in the bullpen.

 

Thanks Seth

 

My reference to "like Darnell" referred to the decision last year in choosing a player with much less upside for the short term. Not sure who that will be come June, but there will be someone similar.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We should lower our expectations on Phil Hughes but I also think Nolasco will be fine. 

 

Pelfrey has no leash. He is merely filling in because Santana was a sudden scratch and because May was not stretched out deeper into games. That was my understanding of it. I suppose it will require May to make 2 to 5 starts in AAA before we see him, though that is obviously anybody's guess. So I'd also guess Pelf has that many starts to show something extraordinary to stay in the rotation before he moves back to the 'pen. We could watch to see if the Twins line up Pelfrey and May to pitch on roughly the same days.

 

Like jorgenswest has said on other threads, we need to be rooting for Pelfrey. I would like to see him turn in one really good performance like 7 shutout innings. 

[Hrbowski]

I think that every starter; including Phil Hughes, could be available come the trade deadline.

[Thrylos]

I'd rather see Pelfrey pitch than any non-prospect AAA guy "like Darnell".  If we are talking about bringing up May and/or Meyer, this is a totally different story.   And I double checked and happy to report that there is not a single non-prospect in the Rochester rotation, and the 2 on the 40 man roster are indeed May and Meyer (Berrios, Wheeler and Peavey who will surprise some this season are the rest.)

 

Hughes, Gibson and Nolasco will get a long leash.  I think that Nolasco might actually be the best of the 3 this season.  So we are talking about the last 2 spots in the rotation, one of which will be replaced by Santana come mid June...

 

I'd rather see Pelfrey in the pen, because I think he is a good fit there and the pen is the biggest issue.  I really have no use for Milone or his 84 mph "fast"ball...

[jokin]

 

I'd rather see Pelfrey pitch than any non-prospect AAA guy "like Darnell".  If we are talking about bringing up May and/or Meyer, this is a totally different story.   And I double checked and happy to report that there is not a single non-prospect in the Rochester rotation, and the 2 on the 40 man roster are indeed May and Meyer (Berrios, Wheeler and Peavey who will surprise some this season are the rest.)

 

 

 

Where did you get this information?   Here is the Rochester Red Wing "official" version of their 2015 rotation:

 

 

 

Red Wings Announce 2015 Roster

04/06/2015 1:57 PM ET                                                                                                                                  The starting rotation will feature two pitchers who helped anchor the Wings staff for much of last year. RHP Alex Meyer led the IL with 153 strikeouts in 130.1 innings. RHP Trevor May posted a 2.85 ERA for the Wings in 18 starts last year before his first promotion to the big leagues. RHP Mark Hamburger also returns to Rochester as a starter. The Minnesota native made six starts and eight relief appearances for the Wings last year. The two starting rotation newcomers are both lefties. 24-year-old Taylor Rogers was an Eastern League All Star in 2014 going 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA in Double-A. Jason Wheeler, who pitched in one spot start for the Red Wings last year.  Meyer, May and Wheeler are all currently on the Twins 40 man roster.

 

 

 

It sure looks like Wheeler is the 2015 heir-apparent Darnell/Johnson call-up designee based on this press release, as he too is on the 40-man roster.  And who knows what has been promised to Hamburger for doing all of the roster-filling dirty work, should a roster spot become available.  No mention of Berrios or Peavey in the Red Wing pen, either, just the usual suspects.

 

(Did I learn something new while looking this up?  Ervin Santana is on the restricted list, but apparently still occupies a 40-man spot?)

[Rosterman]

Wilkin Ramirez?

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think Pelfrey will get 3-4 starts to see. I think Milone would get more leeway, probably mid-May. Nolasco will get a bunch of rope. 

This kind of leash definition is incomplete -- what threshold of performance would be necessary for said pitcher to lose his job at that point?

 

I would be shocked if a veteran in the opening day rotation only got 3-4 starts, unless they were injured and/or absolute disasters (maybe 10+ ERA?).  Pelfrey got 5 starts last year, with an almost 8 ERA, and only got bounced at that time due to injury.

 

People also forget that at the same time Pelfrey got bounced at 7.99, Correia was sporting a 7.33.  And it slowly got better, as he finally got it under 5 in July before he was traded in August.  (Also see 2013 Pelfrey.)

 

THAT is the long rotation leash to fear -- how long are they going to stick with a guy with an ERA of 5, or an ERA around 6 but slowly improving towards 5.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This kind of leash definition is incomplete -- what threshold of performance would be necessary for said pitcher to lose his job at that point?

 

I would be shocked if a veteran in the opening day rotation only got 3-4 starts, unless they were injured and/or absolute disasters (maybe 10+ ERA?).  Pelfrey got 5 starts last year, with an almost 8 ERA, and only got bounced at that time due to injury.

 

People also forget that at the same time Pelfrey got bounced at 7.99, Correia was sporting a 7.33.  And it slowly got better, as he finally got it under 5 in July before he was traded in August.  (Also see 2013 Pelfrey.)

 

THAT is the long rotation leash to fear -- how long are they going to stick with a guy with an ERA of 5, or an ERA around 6 but slowly improving towards 5.

 

My thoughts exactly........6-10 starts, probably closer to 10.....

[jorgenswest]

Ten starts will put them close to June. I worry that the Twins will call up a short term low upside pitcher to bridge the gap to Santana. They may even decide to give the failing starter 5 more starts knowing Santana is on the way.

 

Best upside 5 for them long term are Hughes, Gibson, May, Meyer and Berrios. The three may all be ready by midseason or much earlier. Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santana are probably not tradeable. Do they keep sending them out there in the second half of the season because of their salaries?

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins have let a returning/veteran starter last until August (if not the full season) riding a ~5 ERA every year since 2002.

 

Hopefully they will be more aggressive this year with May and Meyer both repeating AAA, especially if they have multiple middling starters around that level, but there isn't much evidence to suggest they actively look to replace those types of guys early.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Twins have let a returning/veteran starter last until August (if not the full season) riding a ~5 ERA every year since 2002.

 

Hopefully they will be more aggressive this year with May and Meyer both repeating AAA, especially if they have multiple middling starters around that level, but there isn't much evidence to suggest they actively look to replace those types of guys early.

 

I hold out an irrational hope that this year, it is only mid-May......

[Platoon]

 

The short answer is yes, and sadly that will also be the long answer!

[Platoon]

The Twins have let a returning/veteran starter last until August (if not the full season) riding a ~5 ERA every year since 2002.

 

This is exactly why all the talk of the shiny prospects moving up anytime soon is not reality. It's just a tortuous tease. Think the horse following that carrot on the end of the stick. So close, yet so far away! In all likelihood a Wi. team will loose another major sports championship in the last minute before the Twins totally rebuild!

[jimmer]

 

The Twins have let a returning/veteran starter last until August (if not the full season) riding a ~5 ERA every year since 2002.

This is exactly why all the talk of the shiny prospects moving up anytime soon is not reality. It's just a tortuous tease. Think the horse following that carrot on the end of the stick. So close, yet so far away! In all likelihood a Wi. team will loose another major sports championship in the last minute before the Twins totally rebuild!

Lucy (Twins FO), the ball (shiny prospects), and Charlie Brown (the fans). :-)

[laloesch]

I'm not optimistic like some here.  I think the Twins will stick with Pelfrey until Santana returns, unless he's so unbelievably bad that he can't make 5 innings multiple games in a row.  Then they might bench him in favor of one of the AAA starters.    

 

That said, it doesn't look good for Berrios, Meyer & May.  Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Ervin Santana are signed through 2019.   Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone are under contract till 2018.  Pelfrey is the only soon to be free agent and he was a long shot to make the rotation anyways until Santana was suspended.  

 

Unless the Twins plan on moving some of these big long term contracts they simply have no room for some of these young pitching prospects for the foreseeable future. Not a good omen for May and Meyer who will both be 26 this season.       

[SweetOne69]

 

 

 

That said, it doesn't look good for Berrios, Meyer & May.  Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Ervin Santana are signed through 2019.   Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone are under contract till 2018.  Pelfrey is the only soon to be free agent and he was a long shot to make the rotation anyways until Santana was suspended.  

 

This is not true.

Hughes is the only player signed through 2019.

Santana is signed through 2018 (2019 option)

Nolasco through 2017 (2018 Option)

Milone, Pelfrey and Gibson are only signed through 2015 (Gibson is a serf and won't enter arbitration until 2017)

[laloesch]

 

This is not true.

Hughes is the only player signed through 2019.

Santana is signed through 2018 (2019 option)

Nolasco through 2017 (2018 Option)

Milone, Pelfrey and Gibson are only signed through 2015 (Gibson is a serf and won't enter arbitration until 2017)

 

What do you mean its not true? Gibson & Milone are not unrestricted free agents until 2019.  Santana's deal automatically vests if he pitches 200 innings in 2018.  Nolasco has a club option for 2018.  Sure there options but they are technically signed through those periods i outlined.  So yeah it IS TRUE.  

 

Next.

[USAFChief]

Not to speak for SweetOne69, but by "not true" I think he means "not true."

 

His facts are correct.

 

Milone and Gibson, for example, are not "technically signed" for 2016 or any year past that.

[jorgenswest]

Nolasco was in 2014 form today. How many more starts? 7? 15? 90?

[Mike Sixel]

7.....

 

I actually saw someone with a dog in a park last week that had such a short leash she had to lean over to hold it........the person, not the dog.....I wish TR had a leash that short for the "SP" HE has acquired.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Nolasco was in 2014 form today. How many more starts? 7? 15? 90?

 

If he keeps pitching like he did today, I cannot see him lasting much beyond May.  Then he can move to LA since he loves it there so much.  I don't see any team picking up the remainder of that contract.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It would be unfortunate if Rochester's first few games get rained out, as they might. That would postpone Meyer and May's schedule. As soon as both those guys are able to get stretched out they should be called up.

 

Molitor has already named Boyer as a seventh inning guy, so at this early point in the season, any starting pitcher in the rotation might reasonably be asked to pitch no more than 6 innings. I personally feel May is capable of that right now (he probably feels that himself) but if the Twins feel he needs a couple starts in AAA first, so be it. 

[jokin]

 

 Not a good omen for May and Meyer who will both be 26 this season.       

 

Besides practically everything else in your post being inaccurate, while it is accurate about May, who DOES turn 26 in September, but it is inaccurate about Meyer, who doesn't turn 26 until early in 2016.