Article: Center Of Attention

[HitInAPinch]

I'm not sure I'd spend any time on Hicks.  Been down that path before. 

I'm starting Schafer in CF.  He's got the defense and has shown that with AB's, he can hit.  I would never knowingly go into a season planning on a platoon.

 

That being said, I still like the offensive and defensive potential of Santana in CF and Escobar at SS.  My whole thing on this is:  did Escobar do anything that would merit demotion.  Santana would have to win the job by a WIDE margin.

 

And I still hate the idea of moving Arcia to left to accommodate and overpriced, $10M 1 year rental on a player that most are speaking of as a coach and not so much as a player.

[USAFChief]

Shafer has shown he can hit??

[TheLeviathan]

I read through these options again and I just can't help but think this position is going to implode this team's chances.  I hope I'm wrong, but it's such a critical spot for this team as it is composed and the options are just dreadful.

[rghrbek]

Wasn't there a post about defense on TD a while back that stated that Shafer was just average in CF?  He was slightly above average in R and LF, but just average in CF.   Throw in the fact he has never hit (despite his limited at bats with the Twins), well I just feel like it's a foregone conclusion that having any combination of Hicks/Shafer in CF is just not going to work.

[jimmer]

I read through these options again and I just can't help but think this position is going to implode this team's chances.  I hope I'm wrong, but it's such a critical spot for this team as it is composed and the options are just dreadful.

Our CF options are a likely first round bust (Hicks), a 4th/5th OF talent (Schaefer), a shortstop (Santana) or a IF/OF hybrid who has twice failed a drug test (Rosario).

 

Problematic at best, especially when you consider the statues manning the corners. Not that our OF defense is really been bad or anything:-)

[sthpstm]

I've brought up the fact that Kepler's AFL OPS was better than Rosario's several times. I think Rosario is closer to big league ready than Kepler. Both have plenty to prove yet before they really are ready. 

 

And yes, we want Rosario to be better than he was last year. He's not going to walk, so he'll have to hit for average. I think he's natural-enough of a hitter to be able to do that. I'll give him some benefit of the doubt for the missed time and some of the stuff that he was doing to himself. 2015 can be a do-over, at least for me, and I think he can move up and succeed. 

 

Kepler's problems have been injury-related. He also was a lot more raw when he signed, so patience was more important with him. I definitely believe in his bat. He can (and has) played centerfield, but I don't think he'd cover nearly the ground that Rosario could. 

I think the case for Rosario is based mostly on his history.  And his offense throughout his minor league is far better than Kepler's.  

I would also say Rosario has as much of a basis to win the starting job out of spring training this year as Hicks did in 2013, at least offensively.  He actually has a much better track record that Hicks did.  

And if mentoring can really be beneficial, perhaps the pupil should be Eddie Rosario, not Hicks.  If Torii is supposed to show guys how to go about their business, how to be professional, how to conduct yourself off the field as well as on, Rosario could be a huge benefactor.

[Dr. Evil]

Escobar .275 + Santana .319 = 594 

Santana .319 + Hicks .215 = 534

Santana + Escobar = good hustle, work ethic, defense, base running

 

My vote is Escobar SS, Santana CF, Hicks AAA = best starting point to the season and then go from there based on Hicks being Hicks or Hicks developing.

[Steve Lein]

I think a lot of those times an interviewer comes up and asks a young player about a veteran player's contribution for a story or some part of a story they are doing about the veteran and what are the young players going to say? We've seen Hunter get in fights with players in the dugout, is that leadership? Some seem to think so.  I don't think it is and when a guy like Hunter takes on a guy like Pujols, I definitely question it. I think Hunter TALKS a good game.  He definitely loves the spotlight. He likes to do things old timers view as leadership.  Whether it is actual leadership or not is debatable.  As far as what those young guys really think about the veteran is anyone's guess.  I doubt the young guy is going to say, 'Nah, I don't really get much from Hunter, except how to NOT do a press conference.' 

 

Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

[jimmer]

Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

I am aware of the story we've all been told. it's a good story, for sure.

[JB_Iowa]

I am aware of the story we've all been told. it's a good story, for sure.

 

But he was reportedly a mentor to Trout as well.

 

I wasn't in favor of the Hunter signing but I do think the Twins brass and staff were in a good position to make a determination on that question. 

[jimmer]

But he was reportedly a mentor to Trout as well.

 

I wasn't in favor of the Hunter signing but I do think the Twins brass and staff were in a good position to make a determination on that question. 

They also made the determination that he was a good defender and could go play some CF for a few games as well :-)

 

There seems to be many of you convinced he has a huge affect in that manner, so let's hope you all are right.  I'm pretty sure Trout ends up being BA no matter what.

 

In any event, seems we could have waited a couple more years and signed him as a coach and gotten the same thing for about 9.5M less. :-)

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[nater79a]

This would be the prudent option.  But the Hunter signing tells me the job is Hicks.

 

Yes, I see no reason to bring in Hunter if not for the specific reason of mentoring Hicks-y (and also Buxton).

 

I also read that Rod Carew has been working with Aaron in the last few days. That tells me the Twins have their mind made up.

[Brandon]

Personally I think Escobar > Hicks so Escobar should remain at SS and Santana in CF.  But what do I know.  so if Hicks can hit .250 / .340./ .350 then I can live with that till Buxton comes up.  Also I expect Hicks to run more than he did last year. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

For all his warts, Hicks does get on base pretty well.

 

....

 

It amazes me that Hicks has so little pop in his bat and I imagine it has to do with him not feeling right at the plate.

I think the high OBP and the low AVG/SLG are probably related.  His approach lends itself to working a few walks at the expense of good contact.  I think we're going to see that OBP drop, either by virtue of Hicks changing his approach or by pitchers increasingly exploiting that contact weakness.  I hope its the former, and he recovers enough AVG/SLG to make it worthwhile.

[jimmer]

For AL players with 225 or more plate appearances (that was 168 guys in the AL last year), Hicks was 8th in pitches per plate appearance.  

 

Additionally, Parmellee was 7th, Willingham was 10th, Mauer was 14th and Dozier was 16th.

 

I chose 225 or more PAs as my starting point because Hicks had 225 PAs.

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm starting Schafer in CF.  He's got the defense and has shown that with AB's, he can hit.

Not sure if you are aware, but Schafer had over 1000 AB in Atlanta and Houston before coming to Minnesota.  And the vast majority of it was not as a bench player -- he didn't hit the bench until he was 26 and in his 4th MLB season, about 900 PA into his career.  And he batted .221 with a 66 OPS+ during that time.

 

Actually, his best extended MLB hitting performance was not with the Twins, but rather over the first 3 months of 2013 when the Braves made him a bench player -- he batted .312 during that time, in about the same number of PA that he got with the Twins last year.  Which shows how much stats can fluctuate in samples that small.

 

Not suggesting cutting him or anything, but penciling him in as an everyday player would be foolish at this point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, let's not forget that last year at this time, Alex Presley had a statistically very similar brief Twins audition to Jordan Schafer, and a better MLB track record to boot (league average bat over 821 PA!).

[Shane Wahl]

Hicks should and will be the starting CF. He can improve immensely both with BA and SLG. A .250/.370/.370 line is not out of the question. If he can then be a good defensive CF until Buxton arrives, the other options are done.

[Dr. Evil]

Hicks should and will be the starting CF. He can improve immensely both with BA and SLG. A .250/.370/.370 line is not out of the question. If he can then be a good defensive CF until Buxton arrives, the other options are done.

The "will" and the "should" to me are two separate things.

 

Escobar is 26 and batted 60 points higher than Hicks who is 25. Both of them are prospects and similar in age But, not similar in intangibles or results.

 

So, I would have to disagree with the "should" part of it and perhaps replace that word with "might."

 

Hicks is far from a sure fire prospect and certainly not worthy of taking 50 batting average points out of the lineup. He might end up being a good player. But, I say let him get there in AAA first while putting your best 9 on the field every day on the big club.

 

Just one man's opinion though.

[jimmer]

We can't just assume how a player performed last year is how they'll perform this year. rarely happens especially with players with so little ML time.

 

IMO, Escobar hit far above his talents.  He's due to regress to the negative.   Even with the 60 point BA advantage Escobar had on Hicks (due to a pretty high BABIP) he still managed to be behind Hicks in OBP by 26 points. Hicks played about as bad as he could, seems he only has one way to go.

 

And Hicks is actually an OF. 

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[Shane Wahl]

Santana is not going to last as a CF. He might not at SS either, but he has a chance there. Schafer is a pretty dangerous bet. Robinson is not a major league player, and probably not even a AAA player right now. It's weird to even mention him in this conversation.

[jimmer]

Santana is not going to last as a CF. He might not at SS either, but he has a chance there. Schafer is a pretty dangerous bet. Robinson is not a major league player, and probably not even a AAA player right now. It's weird to even mention him in this conversation.

In today's chat over at Fangraphs, someone asked the host about his thoughts on Danny Santana for this year. He said 'tons of regression will hide the fact that the Twins don’t have a great other option and will probably ride even .260/.290/.380 with speed.'

 

And you know, when we look at Santana's BA last year and some get excited.  Then we see he had a BABIP over .400 and wonder how sustainable is it.

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[Dr. Evil]

What ever happens, it's going to be an interesting season. It will be fun to see it all play out.

 

I would rather see Escobar step to the plate with runners on first and second and no outs. I feel more confident in his ability to at the very least advance the runners and have a productive at bat at this moment in time.

 

Hopefully, if Hicks gets the nod and Santana plays short, Hicks will surprise me.

[jimmer]

 

I would rather see Escobar step to the plate with runners on first and second and no outs. I feel more confident in his ability to at the very least advance the runners and have a productive at bat at this moment in time.

Well, that scenario did happen four times last year and nine times in his career.  It's an interesting scenario to use as an example :-)

[Dr. Evil]

I don't view Santana as a long term solution in CF. I'm just saying to start the season there with Escobar at short. That changes based on performance and who evolves and who regresses etc.

 

I get it, Santana "might" regress. Escobar "may have" played beyond the level that he will play at long term. Also, Hicks "might" evolve in to a solid major league outfielder.

 

To me, Escobar "did" produce more in 2014. So, if only for the first month or so of the season, it makes sense to put the two best performers out there and go with your best 9 players. It also sends a positive message in the clubhouse. 

[Dr. Evil]

Well, that scenario did happen four times last year and nine times in his career.  It's an interesting scenario to use as an example :-)

You have me curious. Hit me with the comparison between Hicks and Escobar in this scenario.  Even if it makes me look stupid

[Platoon]

Well, the thing is, Torii Hunter back when, talked about how Kirby took him under his wing as a mentor, and because of that he thought it was his duty to do the same for the next CF, who was Denard Span. It became a thing among the CF's in the Twins organization, that they made sure they helped the next guy coming up. Span then did it with Revere. I don't dismiss the 'mentor' aspect at all, I think It's quite real in Torii's case..

Hicksie is 25ish and Arcia is 23ish if I remember correctly. Ergo, Oswaldo could also be a mentoring candidate. The first rule of mentoring should be, if a guy is struggling in a position, don't take it away from him and force him across the diamond! If Arcia stays healthy and hits half of what it looks like he will, he is going to be the Twins right fielder. Defensively this is a lost year for him. Santana HAD to play CF. There was no one else at the time. Can anyone give me one reason why Hunter cannot play LF and leave Arcia in RF. It would seem to me that this move was a handshake agreement before he signed. There is no other rational reason for it.

[jimmer]

You have me curious. Hit me with the comparison between Hicks and Escobar in this scenario.  Even if it makes me look stupid

Well, in that scenario, Escobar had 5 SH in 9 PA (most likely sac bunts) and his line is .000/.000/.000. Hicks has 6 PA, 2 SH, and a line of .250/.250/.250. 

 

I guess what I was saying is that scenario seemed very arbitrary to point out because it's an incredibly small sample size, less arbitrary than saying 'I'm more comfortable with this guy because of how he hits on Tuesdays.' :-)

Edited January 29, 2015 by jimmer

[mikelink45]

Since I remain skeptical about Twins performance in 2015 I am all for playing Hicks until Buxton comes on board in July.  If Buxton is all we have been saying it is time to give him the Griffey/Trout treatment and let him grow in the bigs.  Get Rosario ready to replace Hunter and see if we can really lay the foundation for 2016.  If we think like Beane we will push the vets to get max value this summer and then get the next wave in with more in the minors to support them.

[Platoon]

Santana is not going to last as a CF. He might not at SS either, but he has a chance there. Schafer is a pretty dangerous bet. Robinson is not a major league player, and probably not even a AAA player right now. It's weird to even mention him in this conversation.

The question should be, with the assumption Buxton is in the wings, "who is the best DEFENSIVE CF the Twins can put out there"? Using offensive as a criteria in that spot, at this time is not addressing the problems that this roster bring to the field.