Is Brian Dozier Underrated?

[jay]

David Schoenfield's ESPN article on the All-Underrated Team lists Brian Dozier at 2B with the following blurb:

 

Dozier came up as a shortstop in 2012 but has moved over to second base and gets lost among all the quality second basemen in the American League (playing on the Twins doesn't help), but what a season he had: 23 home runs, 57 extra-base hits, 89 walks, 21 stolen bases, solid defense and 112 runs scored, second in the majors behind Mike Trout. Dozier will continue to be underrated in part because he hit just .242, but he still had a higher OBP than Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler.

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=54559

 

What do you think? Is Brian Dozier underrated? I think he definitely is.

[jimmer]

David Schoenfield's ESPN article on the All-Underrated Team lists Brian Dozier at 2B with the following blurb:

 

 

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=sweetspot&id=54559

 

What do you think? Is Brian Dozier underrated? I think he definitely is.

I think it's possible he's overrated by many Twins fans AND under-rated by baseball fans in general.  IMO, his talent lies somewhere in-between.

[Paul Pleiss]

 I agre with Elizabethton. There's no way Dozier is underrated by Twins fans; he's way OVERRATED by most of the MN faithful. However, there is defintely a lack of appreciation for his skillset outside of the AL central.

[Thrylos]

The sad thing is that Dozier was regarded as the Twins' best position player by many last season.

[stringer bell]

The sad thing is that Dozier was regarded as the Twins' best position player by many last season.

I don't consider it sad and I do think Dozier has been the best position player the past two years by a decent margin. Dozier is a good player and I think he will continue to be underrated by many until batting average isn't the first thing considered for offensive performance.

[Thrylos]

I don't consider it sad and I do think Dozier has been the best position player the past two years by a decent margin. Dozier is a good player and I think he will continue to be underrated by many until batting average isn't the first thing considered for offensive performance.

 

Batting average?  Ribies. Give me Ribies or death

 

OPS+  One single season of OPS+ or WRC+ (take your poison)  > average

Career OPS < 100, wRC+ average

One single season a star does not make

[RedBull34]

Yea, but his hair is gorgeous.

[Craig Arko]

Yea, but his hair is gorgeous.

Almost like a Werewolf of London.

[jay]

Yea, but his hair is gorgeous.

His 'flow' is his most appropriately rated characteristic.

[nicksaviking]

The sad thing is that Dozier was regarded as the Twins' best position player by many last season.

 

Well if those people are going by WAR, he also would have been the best player on four of the five teams in the AL East, placing 2nd to Jose Bautista overall.

[Platoon]

I don't consider it sad and I do think Dozier has been the best position player the past two years by a decent margin. Dozier is a good player and I think he will continue to be underrated by many until batting average isn't the first thing considered for offensive performance.

I think it's sad, not because of Dozier, but because if he is our BEST position player, that leaves the rest of them behind. You could easily win a World Series with Brian Dozier in your lineup. You cannot win the World Series with 7 other Dozier level players on the field. He is over rated in Twins Land because we have become very used to mediocrity in this market. And that extends to virtually every statewide sports entity that has a MN zip code. In any other market, a manager who said the boys were "battlin their tails off" after yet another loss, would have been gone long before this. Sorry to have wandered slightly off topic, but it goes to the heart of over/under rating.

[jay]

You cannot win the World Series with 7 other Dozier level players on the field. He is over rated in Twins Land because we have become very used to mediocrity in this market.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that first statement and that type of thinking is exactly why Brian Dozier is underrated even by Twins fans. This thought that he's some bit player you can deal with or he's not good enough to build with/around doesn't hold true with his production.

[jimmer]

I wholeheartedly disagree with that first statement and that type of thinking is exactly why Brian Dozier is underrated even by Twins fans. This thought that he's some bit player you can deal with or he's not good enough to build with/around doesn't hold true with his production.

If we believe he will continue to be the player he was last year, I agree with you. I'm not sure I believe he can, which is why I think he is over-rated by most Twins fans I've come across.  But if he can maintain how he did last year, it would make us a good enough team to make the playoffs.

[Platoon]

I wholeheartedly disagree with that first statement and that type of thinking is exactly why Brian Dozier is underrated even by Twins fans. This thought that he's some bit player you can deal with or he's not good enough to build with/around doesn't hold true with his production.

"He's not good enough to build around". My point is that he is good enough to be part of a legitimate contender. I would take him any day. This is not a knock on "The Hair God". This is an observation that a team buit of 8 BD level players would not be successful. He quit hitting home runs the minute they figured out that almost everyone he hit was off a high, almost out of, or out the strike zone pitch. Besides the obvious fact that pitching rules, you need a couple position studs. BD is a very nice ball player. But he is not in the stud category. (Hair comments will not be tolerated). . I agree with the first part of your last sentence, he is good enough to build with. But not the around part.

[jimmer]

He quit hitting home runs the minute they figured out that almost everyone he hit was off a high, almost out of, or out the strike zone pitch. Besides the obvious fact that pitching rules, you need a couple position studs. BD is a very nice ball player. But he is not in the stud category. (Hair comments will not be tolerated). . I agree with the first part of your last sentence, he is good enough to build with. But not the around part.

You don't need a bunch of studs.  A team can make the playoffs with a bunch of above average players, which he definitely was last year.  In fact, one could argue he was a stud last year when looking at what he provided overall. Whether he continues that is the question.

 

Last year, KC got to the W series with only 3 starting position players that rated as good players or better.  Only one rated All Star level or better.  

 

And yes, he stopped hitting HR, but he also started getting on base at a better clip. It's a game of adjustments.

[Mr. Patient]

You cannot win the World Series with 7 other Dozier level players on the field.

 

Dozier was a 4.6 fWAR-player last year.  If you had 7 more Doziers playing every day, you'd have about 10 more WAR than the Dodgers are projected to have this year.

[jay]

This is an observation that a team buit of 8 BD level players would not be successful.

 

This is the part I disagree with.  I think the Twins and most any team would be in good shape if they had 8 "BD level" players running around on the field.

[TheLeviathan]

Brian Dozier is a great player to have, I have some doubts about him sustaining that great play, but you can absolutely win championships with a roster full of players like him.

 

And that's coming from someone that finds it utterly preposterous to hand him an extension right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brian Dozier is a great player to have, I have some doubts about him sustaining that great play, but you can absolutely win championships with a roster full of players like him.

Yeah... This shouldn't even be a question.

 

A team OPS+ of 114 with good OBP? Yeah, that's a championship caliber squad easily. No doubt about it.

[ashbury]

Yeah... This shouldn't even be a question.

 

A team OPS+ of 114 with good OBP? Yeah, that's a championship caliber squad easily. No doubt about it.

There's two concepts in play here.  One is, can you win (vaguely defined) with a team full of X?  I share the view that Dozier fits this bill.  The other is one Bill James proposed many years ago as one measure (out of very many) of HoF-worthiness: can you win (I forget if he said World Series or not) if player X is the best player on the team? This supposes a typical range of players worse than him on the 25-man, and I don't personally see Dozier as good enough for that. 

 

I think most of the discussion here has been about the first measure, but there was a smattering of the second and I think it's equally worthwhile.  The second one is more about whether you can build around the player, for example.

[USAFChief]

There's two concepts in play here.  One is, can you win (vaguely defined) with a team full of X?  I share the view that Dozier fits this bill.  The other is one Bill James proposed many years ago as one measure (out of very many) of HoF-worthiness: can you win (I forget if he said World Series or not) if player X is the best player on the team? This supposes a typical range of players worse than him on the 25-man, and I don't personally see Dozier as good enough for that. 

 

I think most of the discussion here has been about the first measure, but there was a smattering of the second and I think it's equally worthwhile.  The second one is more about whether you can build around the player, for example.

Concur.

 

I think Dozier is a good player...buthe shouldn't be your best player.

[stringer bell]

Dozier is the rare player on the team who is at least average offensively, defensively and on the bases. Having eight or nine players like him would be great. He is a fine player, but not a superstar. I think he'll be the second baseman the next time the Twins make the playoffs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There's two concepts in play here. One is, can you win (vaguely defined) with a team full of X? I share the view that Dozier fits this bill. The other is one Bill James proposed many years ago as one measure (out of very many) of HoF-worthiness: can you win (I forget if he said World Series or not) if player X is the best player on the team? This supposes a typical range of players worse than him on the 25-man, and I don't personally see Dozier as good enough for that.

 

I think most of the discussion here has been about the first measure, but there was a smattering of the second and I think it's equally worthwhile. The second one is more about whether you can build around the player, for example.

Dozier is a complementary player. He should be what Michael Cuddyer was eight years ago. A good player with the occasional very good season. He's not Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, or even Justin Morneau. Good teams typically have 2-3 Dozier types on the roster. A guy who isn't a headliner but gives you 3-4 WAR every season.

 

That's how I view Dozier, anyway.

[Champuckett]

Yes, he is underrated, no doubt about that.

 

What I'm wondering is why?  Is it his low batting average, his lack of star power, his small physique, or just the fact he has been playing on bad Twins teams for his entire short career?

 

On a team that finished in the top half of most offensive categories in 2014, he finished as a team leader in home runs, runs scored, hits and walks.  2nd in all of the MLB in runs scored.  When you think of offensive leaders on the team, Arcia, Mauer, recently Vargas, and maybe even Plouffe come to mind.  Yet, somehow, it's been Dozier for the last few seasons.

 

Regardless of his lack of notoriety, I think it's a positive thing (unless you want him traded) he is going relatively unnoticed.  He isn't going to have leverage for a ridiculous contract and have a crazy payday that a star player would command, yet he is still going to produce, under the radar, for the foreseeable future.  I will gladly take that.