Arcia as breakout hitter & Gibson as breakout pitcher

[dougkoebernick]

ESPN has a blog about breakout hitters for 2015 and Arcia is listed as #5 - Gibson is listed as #9 for breakout pitchers. I can't say that I disagree at all. Bill James is apparently liking Arcia quite a bit as well.

 

5. Oswaldo Arcia, Twins: .743 career OPS | 2015 James .844, Steamer .790

Did you know Arcia hit 20 homers in a partial season last year, as a 23-year-old? Or that Bill James also pegged him for 30 homers this season? Blame the flyover market, blame all the prospect maven attention getting lavished on names like Buxton or Sano (not that there’s anything wrong with that), or blame the Twins’ four-year run of losing seasons, but Arcia is going to be a big part of the reason why the Twins’ brief run of irrelevance ends soon. Add in an AL Central where nobody should be a slam-dunk pick to win 90 games, and Arcia will be the new star slugger on a surprise contender.

 

9. Kyle Gibson, Twins: 5.04 RA9 career | 2015 James 3.99 ERA, Steamer 4.55

This may not be as easy a case to make, but he is a prime example of what has become an organizational type for the Twins, a huge strike-thrower who pounds away low and outside and keeps his infield busy, sort of a bigger version of Scott Erickson with even better command. As ESPN Stats & Info’s Mark Simon tweeted earlier this month, Gibson kept some pretty extraordinary company last year, tying for second in the majors in starts with seven or more innings pitched and no runs allowed with six. If the Twins’ infield defense jells this year, he’ll stay on that list.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/category/_/name/minnesota-twins

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd agree with both, but if I were a betting man, I'd place more money on Arcia than Gibson.  Arcia had an OPS greater than .800 the second half of the season, and his minor league track record is pretty impressive.  He could hit close to .300 and still get around 30 home runs (though his OBP will probably hold down the OPS numbers), and I think he's going to do that... especially once three's a core in place with Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Vargas to complement guys like Mauer and Dozier. 

 

With Gibson, the big step forward is if he can get his K rate up closer to what it was in the minors.  He was striking out between 8 and 9 batters per 9 IP in AAA, and if he gets his ML K rate up closer to 7 to go with the grounders, he'll be a pretty valuable pitcher.

[Twodogs]

I can see Arcia doing well.  Gibson had some really really dominating starts last year, but he didn't seem to have those average ones.  He seemed to be either really on or really off.  That worries me a little bit, if he has a few really off starts to begin the season that could spiral him down.  Kind of like Nolasco last year, started so bad and never recovered.  Hopefully Gibson avoids the Sophomore slump and does really well.

[dougkoebernick]

Good thoughts - I would agree that I am more optimistic about Arcia but there were times when Gibson was really dialed in (and times he was not!). We will find out soon enough.

[JB_Iowa]

I rem

 

Good thoughts - I would agree that I am more optimistic about Arcia but there were times when Gibson was really dialed in (and times he was not!). We will find out soon enough.

 

I remember trying to predict his good games based on whether it was the day after an off-day and whether he and Hicks had golfed on the off-day,

[DocBauer]

Not sure if the key for Gibson is that 7K per 9IP or just more game to game consistency, unlike last season where at times he seemed be on an every other game roller coaster. Or is a smoother ride going to mean raising the K rate? Might have a little chicken or the egg dilemma here. Regardless, Gibson just doing what he did last season with that extra measure of consistency, and I could see 190 IP, 15 wins, etc.

[stringer bell]

I'm not sure if Gibson has to raise his K/9 that much. Two keys for him: 1) Getting ahead in the count and 2) limiting damage instead of allowing a big inning. It seems like both stem from not trusting his stuff enough. He's got enough pitches that if gets strikes early in the count, he will get outs. It seemed to often in his "bad Gibson" games that he was continually throwing 2-0 cookies.

[Danchat]

I predicted Gibson to have his breakout year in 2014, but it didn't quite happen. 2015 should be the time for him to bloom.

[Bark's Lounge]

I could totally see Arcia hitting 30 Jacks with a .270BA. Maybe that is outrageous to say, but I do believe it is possible.

[youngpadawan]

I hope to see much more of Arcia standing on 2nd, after a go-ahead double, screaming at the dugout holding an "O" over his head with his hands. I can't wait for more personality like his and Sano's on this team. That's fun to watch.

[nater79a]

I could totally see Arcia hitting 30 Jacks with a .270BA. Maybe that is outrageous to say, but I do believe it is possible.

 

Not outrageous at all. But, he's going to have to approach numbers similar to those you listed to outweigh his defensive deficiencies.

[Clyde123]

How many at bats will Arcia get against Trevor Bauer this year.  James might be selling him short.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4obYRzb1U8

[Riverbrian]

My view is a little different.

 

I feel Gibson is a more logical breakout candidate because he's progressing in my opinion. He keeps the ball low... He's using his mechanics in the right way. In my mind he's just going to get better overtime,

 

Arcia on the other hand... He's free swinging... Just a kid with immense talent and potential who hasn't matured yet.

 

When he breaks out... It will be like turning on a light switch... One day he'll stop swinging at crap and boom.

 

I'm just not sure if it's 2015 when he locates the light switch. If he does... It'll be more impressive then Gibson.

 

Right Now... I think Gibson is simply doing the work to be improved in 2015. Gibson knows where the light switch is... Arcia just has a brighter bulb.

[kab21]

I remain cautiously optimistic about Arcia.

 

the cautious part is that he never makes any actual progress similar to Delmon's career.  If he keeps hacking at crap then he won't go very far.

 

The optimistic part is that he becomes a middle of the order borderline All-Star that isn't even the best hitter in the lineup. 

[HitInAPinch]

My view is a little different.

 

I feel Gibson is a more logical breakout candidate because he's progressing in my opinion. He keeps the ball low... He's using his mechanics in the right way. In my mind he's just going to get better overtime,

 

Arcia on the other hand... He's free swinging... Just a kid with immense talent and potential who hasn't matured yet.

 I'm with you on Gibson.  I believe his only problem last year was the coaching staff.  They NEVER should have allowed him to pitch all those innings he did last year.  Same as Hughes.  The staff should have been fired for that alone.

 

I'm a little different than you on Arcia.  I'm going with "he WAS a free swinger".  Brunansky had a big affect on Arcia in the last half of the year.  I'm on the 'breakout' side on Arcia. 

 

Hey, there's a new coaching staff in town.  They can't be worse, right?

[Mike Sixel]

Offensively, I think Arcia will be better than last year, but not sure how much better, maybe a win or so better. Move to about 10-14th or so best offensive LF. Defensively, well, that could be bad, or it could just be below average. Somehow people ignore the defense in these writeups......

 

I like Gibson to be about 10-15 or so spots better in the SP rankings, improving mostly be having less bad outings that are really bad. Not sure if that makes him a breakout player or not.

[James]

How many at bats will Arcia get against Trevor Bauer this year.  James might be selling him short.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4obYRzb1U8

That is a great video.  It looks like he hardly put anything into that swing and that ball went a long way.

 

I think they're both great candidates to break out.  I've been excited about Gibson for a long time.  I think he showed some very good things last year, and like others have said, it's all about getting more consistent.  Hopefully, Neil Allen can help him out with that.  

 

I think Arcia is more likely to break out.  Just my opinion.  I don't have the splits between first half and second half last year, but it did seem like Bruno was finally getting through to him.  His plate appearances looked a lot better.

 

Side question, I know I see people post breakdowns of player AB's posted by other users.  What is a good resource to find out this kind of information?  I'd really like to get some numbers behind my observations.

[gunnarthor]

I think there's a lot of reason to be optimistic on both guys.  I thought Gibson wore down during the season but he did improve his k/9 and k% during the season. His k/9 in the second half was 6.2, which, over a full season would be good enough, I think.  (It was 7.3 in Aug but he pitched badly that month).  Last season he pitched 180 innings, the year before he had 150.  So he's still getting some stamina back.  Also, we should remember that K/9 isn't always that great a measurement b/c it measures strike outs per inning and not strike outs per hitter.  Guys that walk fewer guys will usually have a lower K/9 simply because they face fewer guys in an inning.  It's a small thing but adds up over a season.  Hughes was 27th in k/9 but 22nd in K% last year, for instance.  Gibson's ground ball rate was 5th in baseball last season (min 170 innings) so he has an important skill set that will help him and he doesn't give up many HRs (although he gave up a few more down the stretch last season but I think fatigue had a big impact on that).  So, I think if he's healthy and not tired, he should be able to keep the ball in the park, usually on the ground and should be able to strike out a few more hitters over the season.  He could have a poor man's Brandon Webb or Tim Hudson type seasons.  

 

As for Arcia, I'm really growing on him and think he could certainly have a big season.  Does anyone remember that Jason Kubel had a .300/.369/.539 137 OPS+ season?  TF will sap some of his left handed power but I like Arcia better as a hitter than Kubel (although both were very well regarded prospects but Kubel's knee injury hampered his career).  

[Mike Sixel]

Kubel was a GREAT prospect before the injury........much better contact and eye and everything but pure power than Arcia, imo.

[tobi0040]

It seems a bit odd calling for Arcia as a breakout player.

 

He has 34 HR in less than 800 AB's the last two years, with a .743 OPS.   I guess those numbers could considerably get better if he improves his hitting against lefties.  I hope that is the case.

[Mike Sixel]

Arcia doesn't crack the top half of LF/RF right now......so there is plenty of room to break out still. Just check the leaderboards, he has plenty of work left.

[TheDean]

Defensively, well, that could be bad, or it could just be below average. Somehow people ignore the defense in these writeups......

 

For better or worse, I have the memory of watching Arcia play LF vs the Yanks on the 4th of July in 2013 seared into my mind. It was during one of Gibson's first starts in the 2013 season. For a reason that escapes me, it was Arcia in LF and Clete Thomas in RF. I had LF seats, and while watching Arcia play below me, two things became clear: 1. playing major league outfield is hard - the Yankees seemed to send drive after drive tailing in all different directions toward LF. 2. Arcia was not comfortable in LF, and was not good at playing it.

 

I guess I'm saying all of this because Arcia is going to need a lot of work to be even Hammer-level in LF. Until he's above Willingham-grade defense, I agree with the you and the others here that he's going to need to hit a lot to offset his lack of range. He'll probably break out in hitting, but will his net value come close to breaking out?

 

As a side note, I never thought I'd use Hammer as a benchmark for range/instincts.

[tobi0040]

Arcia doesn't crack the top half of LF/RF right now......so there is plenty of room to break out still. Just check the leaderboards, he has plenty of work left.

 

At a clip of a HR every 23 AB's and 600 AB's a year,he would have 26 HR a year. Only 17 players in the league hit more next year.

 

He needs to hit lefties better and take more walks, no doubt.  But had he played a full year either of the last two I think he would be off the "breakout" radar.

[Mike Sixel]

HR are not the only stat that contributes to hitting.

[tobi0040]

HR are not the only stat that contributes to hitting.

 

if he put up .241 avearge, 26 HR, and a .740 OPS two years in a row do you think he would be on this list as a potential breakout player?

 

I think he has a ton of things he can improve on....but had he played a full year I don't think he would be on the radar here.  That is all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

but Arcia is going to be a big part of the reason why the Twins’ brief run of irrelevance ends soon. Add in an AL Central where nobody should be a slam-dunk pick to win 90 games, and Arcia will be the new star slugger on a surprise contender.

 

Bold statements. I see the "star slugger" part happening but I'm not sold on the "surprise contender" bit. If the Twins jump out early they might be a surprise contender for a few months but ultimately, I don't see them with a record much better than .500 in a full season. I'd be shocked if they have a win total in the mid-80s given this division. No team is dominant but they're all solid in their own right.

 

I'd be perfectly happy with an 81-81 record in 2015 and would consider the season a success were that to happen.

[tobi0040]

I'd be perfectly happy with an 81-81 record in 2015 and would consider the season a success were that to happen.

 

Agreed.   I actually can see it happening.  Our run differential was only -62.  You add Ervin over guys like Pelfrey, Pino, etc.   And if Nolasco can return to form we are on our way.  Add in a shot in the arm from the farm...

[gunnarthor]

Agreed.   I actually can see it happening.  Our run differential was only -62.  You add Ervin over guys like Pelfrey, Pino, etc.   And if Nolasco can return to form we are on our way.  Add in a shot in the arm from the farm...

Yep, the stability of the rotation will be huge.  I'm concerned about DH but hopefully Sano is up by July.

[markos]

Many here have suggested that Arcia made big strides in the second half of the season, but his K% was still over 30% in August and September. I am still bearish on Arcia. Not only does he chasing too many bad pitches, but he is also among the worst in baseball at swinging and missing on pitches in the strike zone. In fact, among players 25 and younger over the past 5 seasons who received at least 400 PAs, he is the worst at both contact % in the strike zone and overall contact %.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=c,102,103,104,105,106,107,110,23,50&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=14,25&filter=&players=0&sort=8,a
That indicates to me that he still has serious holes in his swing that can be exploited by quality pitchers. However, contact rate isn't the be all end all as there are some good names on that show up on that list (Stanton, Puig, Goldschmidt, Freeman), and the Steamer projection for Arcia is pretty strong for next season. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic.

 

Also, don't get me wrong that I think he's worthless. He is already an above-replacement major leaguer, and I think he will ultimately settle into an average-ish corner-outfield/DH role, much like Kubel did (though Arcia will do it will more flash - more HRs, more Ks and fewer BB). Ultimately, I just think that his swing-and-miss issues will prevent him from ever taking the leap to "star slugger on a contender".

[tobi0040]

Many here have suggested that Arcia made big strides in the second half of the season, but his K% was still over 30% in August and September. I am still bearish on Arcia. Not only does he chasing too many bad pitches, but he is also among the worst in baseball at swinging and missing on pitches in the strike zone. In fact, among players 25 and younger over the past 5 seasons who received at least 400 PAs, he is the worst at both contact % in the strike zone and overall contact %.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=c,102,103,104,105,106,107,110,23,50&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=14,25&filter=&players=0&sort=8,a

That indicates to me that he still has serious holes in his swing that can be exploited by quality pitchers. However, contact rate isn't the be all end all as there are some good names on that show up on that list (Stanton, Puig, Goldschmidt, Freeman), and the Steamer projection for Arcia is pretty strong for next season. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic.

 

Also, don't get me wrong that I think he's worthless. He is already an above-replacement major leaguer, and I think he will ultimately settle into an average-ish corner-outfield/DH role, much like Kubel did (though Arcia will do it will more flash - more HRs, more Ks and fewer BB). Ultimately, I just think that his swing-and-miss issues will prevent him from ever taking the leap to "star slugger on a contender".

 

 

He is on that list with some really good players.  Just in the top 20, Justin Upton, Kemp, Puig, Gioncarlo Stanton twice (including last year when he finished second for MVP).  Alvarez, Freeman, and Goldschmidt.

 

His biggest issue is facing lefties.  His OPS + splits for his career are 139 vs. 63.  He is 23 and already an above replacement level bat.  If he gets anywhere near competent against lefties he will be a very good hitter.