Ryan on OF defense

[MileHighTwinsFan]

To me, this signing is the first indication of what this team expects to be down the road.  I would have bet my right arm that this team was going to model themselves more after KC and attempt to be strong defensively in the outfield and faster on the base paths.  That may still be where they end up when Buxton and Rosario are up, but this move does not seem to be a step in that direction.

 

The only reason I can see this being a plus move for the team is that they hope Hunter will provide the mentoring and support to young outfielders, like he received from Puckett and provided Span. 

 

Our trading of Span broke an impressive chain of success in the outfield for this team - maybe this is their attempt to restore that tradition.  

[bird]

Frankly, I wonder if a lot of my pals on TD shouldn't ask themselves this question: am I so enamored by the saber metric spreadsheets that I undervalue everything else that goes into making a competent evaluation and overvalue the limited information to which I DO have access? 

 

Not defending the Hunter move here. I hate bad OF defense. I bet Ryan knows that Hunter is subpar defensively, but is willing to overlook the problem, counting on the prospects to prove they can produce offensively during the course of what he hopes is a .500 season.

[nicksaviking]

 

That may still seem a little crazy, but breaking it down further, I don't think it is unreasonable at all to think that once every three games Alex Gordon would make a play that Willingham/etc would miss, Cain/Dyson would make a play that Hicks/Santana would miss, and Aoki/Cain would make a play that Arcia/etc would miss. That is all it would take to add up to a 100 run difference.

 

I don't think so because that would mean that every ball the fielder couldn't get to would score a run, and they usually don't equal a run.  Also, if Hicks makes a play on three balls a game, that means he misplays 1 in 9 chances.  That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is, an unreasonable amount actually.

 

Another thing, perhaps I'm wrong, but the range factor likely doesn't put different weight on which direction the fielder's range is most affecting the game.  Slow-footed outfielders natuarally play back, which means they likely are missing more balls hit in front of them.  While they'll fail to catch more of these balls, these only turn into singles which are much less likely to cause a run.  Still, I'm guessing with most of these metrics, a missed ball played in front of the fielder isn't calculated differently than a missed ball that gets to the gap.

[jay]

I don't think so because that would mean that every ball the fielder couldn't get to would score a run, and they usually don't equal a run.  Also, if Hicks makes a play on three balls a game, that means he misplays 1 in 9 chances.  That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is, an unreasonable amount actually.

 

On the first point, you're showcasing the point I just made in the previous post.  Naturally, there will instances where a ball falls and no runs score.  There will also be instances where a ball falls and the other teams goes on to score four runs.  The weighted run averages use an incredibly immense amount of data to create the average of all those instances.

 

On the second point, "misplay" is far too strong of a definition.  Also, Hicks is a poor example.  The contrast between someone like Alex Gordon and Josh Willingham better reflects the difference between the Royals' and Twins' OF defense in 2014.

[Nick Nelson]

I'm not a big fan of defensive stats either, but when you rank SO poorly across multiple different metrics, it means something. Parker's article on Wednesday was pretty compelling.

 

Also, there's this. Ryan and Hunter both say they don't trust defensive stats, and prefer the eye test. Well, the Twins didn't watch Hunter in the field everday last year. The Tigers did, and had zero interest in bringing him back.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well the same rankings say that Andrew McCutchen is the 3rd worst defensive CF and Mike Trout is the 4th worst.

Except the ranking is pretty close between Trout and guys much "higher" on the list. 

 

Just take 2014.

 

Trout had a -9 for Defensive Runs Saved - that's compared to the "Average" CF. "Average" is skewed by how good Juan Lagares was. The worst CF was more than twice as bad. Ben Revere had -18 DRS at the 2nd worst. There were lots of CF inbetween -5 and -9 DRS, so for those guys there are other ways to see who breaks away from the pack.  

 

 

Hunter had -18 Defensive Runs Saved in RF in 2014. That's really, really bad.

 

And yes, it is just one statistic out of many that measure defense. It is unfair to Hunter to say that he is a bad RF using only his -18 DRS in '14 and -10 DRS in '13.

 

But in Hunter's case, pretty much all of the metrics and the fan scouting reports agree that he is slow to the ball, and doesn't make as many plays that pretty much every other RF makes.  

 

I agree that using just DRS is insufficient. Alone it doesn't tell the whole story, but it is a fairly eye-popping piece of the larger argument.

[Willihammer]

Question for scouting nerds.

 

Terry Ryan says his scouts graded Hunter's range as "average."

 

What is average?

[Mike Sixel]

I think Ryan's actions have shown that he clearly knows how to build a baseball team.  The problem I have with your POV is that I don't think the Twins (or any team) should care much about the stats that are available to the public.  Ryan has stated that he talks to his stat people before signing Hunter, Correia, Pelfrey, Willingham, Suzuki, Hughes.  We don't know what Goins tells him but Goins did imply on TD that the Twins thought Correia would pitch about as well as he did here, so they were clearly using some information we weren't privy to.  Despite having a horrible OF defense, Hughes put up the 3rd highest pitching WAR in the AL last year, so something must have worked.  

 

And most national bloggers have long left the Twins out of the list of non-stat teams.  Phillies, Royals, Giants tend to dominate those lists.

 

WAR removes OF defense, and uses xFIP or FIP.....the delta between Hughes ERA and xFIP or FIP was huge, huge.

[Mike Sixel]

Frankly, I wonder if a lot of my pals on TD shouldn't ask themselves this question: am I so enamored by the saber metric spreadsheets that I undervalue everything else that goes into making a competent evaluation and overvalue the limited information to which I DO have access? 

 

Not defending the Hunter move here. I hate bad OF defense. I bet Ryan knows that Hunter is subpar defensively, but is willing to overlook the problem, counting on the prospects to prove they can produce offensively during the course of what he hopes is a .500 season.

 

Who here has ever said only use stats? Name one person?

[Mike Sixel]

With this, I agree to a great extent. Clearly, Ryan, not surprisingly given his scouting background and his fine track record that reinforces his view, has tremendous conviction about the value of scouting and the ability of a trained evaluator to see all the pertinent things. It's not as if he doesn't have a valid reason to value what his scouts see more than he values the things the advanced data somewhat inadequately measures. Ballpark nuances, routes, cutoff men, arm accuracy, all brought up here, require eyeballs, right? 

 

Clearly, Ryan has been stubborn, and slow to accept the value in some of the new data. They have moved forward at a much slower pace than many organizations, no argument there.

 

But is it perhaps a cheap shot to attribute his stubbornness to hubris and an unwillingness to learn? I think it is. That's all I'm saying. We can be harsh in our criticism without falsely attributing negative personality traits to people. 

 

fair.....

[TheLeviathan]

Despite having a horrible OF defense, Hughes put up the 3rd highest pitching WAR in the AL last year, so something must have worked.  

 

I couldn't help but think of Lisa and Homer arguing about how her rock keeps tigers away.

 

But to take it a bit further, Phil Hughes xFIP indicates your point is not well based.

[Willihammer]

I bet Ryan knows that Hunter is subpar defensively, but is willing to overlook the problem, counting on the prospects to prove they can produce offensively during the course of what he hopes is a .500 season.

Don't know why you'd think that. In OP's link, Ryan tells Berardino he thinks Hunter could play center field for a stint if needed. "Average" and "pretty good" were the words he used to describe his defense, not "subpar."

[old nurse]

Fangraphs has some handy dany information. If you look at league average for on inside edge and compare it to Torri you wouls find Torii looks league average except on impossible and greater than 90%. Hunter made 203 out of 208  90-100% catches League average would have been 2.  No real big deal either way. Hunter made 0 imossible catches. There were 1865 in the alsost 43613.2 innings played. In Hunter's 1114 ininngs then he should have 47, about one every 3 games. The eye test to overcome all this is what happens on the 47 balls hit his way with some chance to catch and he did not as well as when he retrieves the impossible to catch but people do balls. 5 outfield assists, the best was 12 doesn't say much. 5 errors versus the best being 0 and the worst being 6 for the qualified outfielders. If someone knows where there is a stat for "they got an extra base they should not have" it would be helpful. The single that turns into multiple bases, the person tagging up or not. The runner getting the extra base. That is the eye test statistic. I don't know one way or another about Hunter.

[old nurse]

The Inside edge data also leads me to ask this question. Would the data say that the Twins are not concerned about the player making the impossible play because the average outcome when they miss is worse than when they do make the routine play.  That is dive for the ball, miss and now it is multiple bases versus keeping the ball in front of you.

[bird]

Who here has ever said only use stats? Name one person?

This question is related to my comment in what way?

[bird]

Don't know why you'd think that. In OP's link, Ryan tells Berardino he thinks Hunter could play center field for a stint if needed. "Average" and "pretty good" were the words he used to describe his defense, not "subpar."

I'm not sure what you'd expect Ryan to say that he didn't say, Hammer. Would you expect him to say Hunter is subpar as a defender? And why is it difficult to grant him just enough of a license here? Why is it so hard to conclude that, when Ryan balks at providing even the most modest praise, what he means when he says "average" is really the same as what we all know, which is subpar? 

 

And c'mon, you don't actually think Ryan would be OK with Molitor sticking Hunter in CF in anything but an emergency, do you? Give the guy some slack with these types of comments and give him a little credit. Do we really think all of us are seeing something that Ryan is missing here?

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, I'd like Ryan to say Hunter has lost a step, but we like him for these reasons.....list them out. I would prefer he not mislead anyone, which, imo, he is doing here, or he really believes Hunter is average (which could happen, don't think it will, but it could).

[old nurse]

Who here has ever said only use stats? Name one person?

If you are only using stats to base stating why a player is good or bad isn't that only using stats because you are not mentioning what else a player does?

[twinsnorth49]

I found the mention of Kansas City interesting, granted Alex Gordon's and Lorenzo Cain's don't grow on trees but at least they recognize the types of outfield defenders they need to compliment the pitching staff they have. 

 

How does signing a 39 year old RF who has clearly lost several steps and moving an arguably worse defender to LF help a pitching staff that desperately  needs to rely on good outfield defense? 

[Linus]

I do find it ironic that the Twins run of contention that started in 2001 was based on defense. Outside of catcher, they had plus defenders at every position and won games by being fundamentally sound, making great plays on defense and getting just enough offense. IIRC, Ryan was the architect of this formula and now seems to be discounting or disregarding defense. The game has changed since then, but defense is probably regarded as more important now than it was 14 years ago.

I've been thinking about this quite a bit.  Like you, I assumed the emphasis on defense came from Ryan.  Could be that all along it was really TK?  There hasn't been any indication over the last few years that defense is the same priority as it once was.  Perhaps that's more the person making out the line up card, I don't know.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think Ryan's actions have shown that he clearly knows how to build a baseball team.  The problem I have with your POV is that I don't think the Twins (or any team) should care much about the stats that are available to the public.  Ryan has stated that he talks to his stat people before signing Hunter, Correia, Pelfrey, Willingham, Suzuki, Hughes.  We don't know what Goins tells him but Goins did imply on TD that the Twins thought Correia would pitch about as well as he did here, so they were clearly using some information we weren't privy to.

I don't follow that last conclusion -- Correia's main Twins stats (ERA, IP/GS, BB/9, K/9) are almost identical to his Pittsburgh stats.  I am sure the Twins have plenty of information we don't have, but it's not at all clear that it is having an overall positive benefit on the field.

 

And for your first conclusion, I think the jury is still very much out on Ryan's efficacy in free agency.

 

For that matter, I'm not sure if Ryan's record overall is all that great.  The franchise winning percentage since he took over as GM in 1994 is .483.  It goes down to .476 if you eliminate the Bill Smith years, and it goes up to .490 if you just look at TR's first tenure as GM.  It's obviously not bad like the KC/Pittsburgh 20 year droughts, but it's not exactly great either.  (I would be curious -- how long do average "rebuilds" take?  It feels like TR, for all of his positive qualities, was probably more or less average in his first rebuild, and the pace of his second seems to be trending there too.)

 

And the game has changed a lot since the last time TR built a winner.  Salaries have continued exploding, teams aren't giving up prospects quite like they did in the past, comp draft picks are harder to come by.  The question of whether TR can build a successful team again is a perfectly valid question, and his ability/willingness to find a new edge where some of his old ones have been taken away is a part of that just as much as his past record.

[jharaldson]

I think my favorite part of the interview is when he said this:

 

 

“You can use the metrics or you can use the eye, and you should use both."

 

After saying you should use both metrics and your eyes he then proceeds to only use his eyes in all examples.  The scariest part of the interview for me came here when he implied that Hunter is our backup CF:

 

 

"I would guarantee you he could go out and play center field for a couple days and you wouldn’t really miss too much.”

 

My final impression from this is when I use my eyes and look at how Terry has prioritized OF defense in his time second time aroung I notice that he has spent decent money on 2 OF (Hunter/Willingham) in free agency and both are negative defenders.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Frankly, I wonder if a lot of my pals on TD shouldn't ask themselves this question: am I so enamored by the saber metric spreadsheets that I undervalue everything else that goes into making a competent evaluation and overvalue the limited information to which I DO have access? 

I don't know if the Twins deserve a whole lot of benefit of the doubt here.  It's pretty clear at this point that they like reunions and familiarity.  When the Twins broach a reunion with a familiar face, I can't say that my first thought is that they made a "competent evaluation."

[gunnarthor]

Yes, I'd like Ryan to say Hunter has lost a step, but we like him for these reasons.....list them out. I would prefer he not mislead anyone, which, imo, he is doing here, or he really believes Hunter is average (which could happen, don't think it will, but it could).

Actually, he almost said that exactly.  He said he wasn't as quick as he had been and the Twins liked him for a lot of reasons, including things not on the ball field.  

[bird]

Yes, I'd like Ryan to say Hunter has lost a step, but we like him for these reasons.....list them out. I would prefer he not mislead anyone, which, imo, he is doing here, or he really believes Hunter is average (which could happen, don't think it will, but it could).

Go back and read what he said, because that's precisely what he did. He acknowledged the range issue, didn't he? Do you really feel mislead?

[Otto von Ballpark]

How does signing a 39 year old RF who has clearly lost several steps and moving an arguably worse defender to LF help a pitching staff that desperately  needs to rely on good outfield defense? 

Great take, and it has little to do with defensive metrics or eye tests.

 

My reaction to the signing is to question to Twins priorities and their rebuild timeline.

[Mike Sixel]

If he said "he's average"....he's either wrong, or mislead, but you are both right, he did say Hunter had lost range, he didn't say he had little range.....

[gunnarthor]

If he said "he's average"....he's either wrong, or mislead, but you are both right, he did say Hunter had lost range, he didn't say he had little range.....

I think you're trying to put too much valuation into a statement that really wasn't about value.  

 

If someone said, the price of A is $2 and B is $1, what do you want for C? And someone says "give me the average", I'd assume C is $1.50.

 

If a lady asked me, what do you look like, I'd say, "I'm average looking."  

 

I think Ryan's valuation of Hunter is more like the second statement.  At least that is how I read it.

[Mike Sixel]

Fair enough. that's not really my issue anyway. Should have just let that part go.....

 

Frankly, I'm done parsing TR's words, I'll just judge him on his actions (like signing Pelfrey, Hughes, Hunter......)

[ashbury]

What if Jack Goin is telling Terry that the defensive stats are half cooked..

FWIW, I don't think Jack Goin is an expert on analytics.  Goin is a guy in the organization who has the right temperament and no prior expertise and was tasked to keep tabs on what's going on in the analytics world and report back, and apply some methods where he can.  I think he's capable of telling Terry that defensive stats are half cooked.  I don't think he's capable of suggesting how to finish the recipe.  So in that light, it's quite possible that what you're suggesting is exactly what he's telling Terry, and no more, and that's a missed opportunity.

 

I had a similar role once or twice in my career, and it's how business people operate.  It can be successful, but also can carry you only so far.