Shelby Miller v. Oswaldo Arcia

[Bark's Lounge]

Don't get me wrong. I am not the kind of guy who throws out unrealistic trade scenarios, but I feel the need to throw one out there that can maybe make a little bit of sense... probably not.

 

Unfortunately, the Redbirds lost their big time OF prospect Oscar Taveras to a tragic end and they need to fill that void. Maybe Randal Grichuk can fill it to some degree or maybe they need to look outside.

 

Oswaldo Arcia and Shelby Miller are both very attractive players with some holes in their games.

 

Arcia has shown a propensity at striking out and hitting at a low BA while not having the ability to take BB's as much as one would like.

 

Miller's rookie year went very well. His SO to IP were great, This year they down the toilet to some extent.

 

Both players are a work in progress and bumps in the road are to be expected.

 

It is always tough to trade a power hitting young player, but I think I would be willing to trade Arcia for Miller. I'm not sure that the Redbirds would be game for that if they do not sign a free agent starter, but if they do, it might be a risk they would want to take. If they sign the FA starter to their liking, they could take a chance and put Carlos Martinez in the #5 slot.

 

Realistically, Miller might be on the downslide and the same could be said for Arcia. On the Twins side of things it gives them a maybe strikeout pitcher and a chance to right their pitching staff with some depth in the wings.

 

This is only Food for thought, nothing more, nothing less.

[Physics Guy]

I seem to remember trying to come up with possible trades for Miller a year or two ago, but at the time he was still the "shiny new prospect" and nothing seemed to make sense.  Now that the past year has taken a little luster off his game, maybe they would be willing to trade him.  I doubt it, but a package starting with Arcia might do it.  Miller is more proven, so I would think Arcia might not be enough.  I really like Arcia, but I think he ultimately ends up being a DH.  If they can get a good pitcher (#3 on the staff or better) in a trade, I say do it.  I've read several places that the trend may be swinging more towards valuing hitters (especially those with power) over pitchers.  This trade may make sense.

[Otwins]

I hope they can do a trade like this.  The outfield defense is so bad and I don't see how you fix it with Arcia in the mix.

[James Richter]

The guy they need to get from St. Louis is Bourjos. He could possibly do enough to cancel out Arcia's defensive shortcomings. But even so, I don't see Oswaldo out there long-term - by the time Kepler or AB Walker are ready (2017?) he'll have to move to DH or another team.

 

Having said that, I think it's a little early to trade Arcia - if he can carry over his last 2 months into 2015, they can get a much better return at the deadline or this time next year. If you had to trade him right now, though, Arcia for Miller seems reasonable.

[stringer bell]

The guy they need to get from St. Louis is Bourjos. He could possibly do enough to cancel out Arcia's defensive shortcomings. But even so, I don't see Oswaldo out there long-term - by the time Kepler or AB Walker are ready (2017?) he'll have to move to DH or another team.

 

Having said that, I think it's a little early to trade Arcia - if he can carry over his last 2 months into 2015, they can get a much better return at the deadline or this time next year. If you had to trade him right now, though, Arcia for Miller seems reasonable.

I agree about Bourjos. He is a premium defender and he is better against left handers. The Twins already have outfielders Arcia and Schafer, who are far better against RH pitching. I am not ready to write Arcia off as a fielder. He's got enough speed and a good arm. He needs to focus better and work harder at this facet of his game. I think Arcia has a chance to be an All-Star and I don't want to see him traded because of current perceived "needs".

[glunn]

 I am not ready to write Arcia off as a fielder. He's got enough speed and a good arm. He needs to focus better and work harder at this facet of his game. I think Arcia has a chance to be an All-Star and I don't want to see him traded because of current perceived "needs".

 

Lots of good posts here, but I agree with this point the most.  It seems to me that Arcia has missed a lot of catches that he should have made and that with enough practice and concentration he could be a decent defender.

 

On the other hand, almost everyone agrees that the Twins need better starters.  Could Miller be next year's Phil Hughes?  Thanks for starting this thread Bark -- interesting food for thought.

[Mike Sixel]

Must trade value to get value. If you won't trade a questionable OF for a questionable SP, you are likely to never get much in return, imo.

[Willihammer]

This is the sort of ballsy trade I'd love to see the Twins make over the winter. Maybe not these two players exactly, but something similar.

[DocBauer]

Lots of good posts here, but I agree with this point the most.  It seems to me that Arcia has missed a lot of catches that he should have made and that with enough practice and concentration he could be a decent defender.

 

On the other hand, almost everyone agrees that the Twins need better starters.  Could Miller be next year's Phil Hughes?  Thanks for starting this thread Bark -- interesting food for thought.

I have tons of faith in Arcia. Not to sound corny, but he just oozes ability and potential. And unlike someone like Delmon Young, he seems determined to improve. His defense has improved, though there is obviously room for improvement. And his close to last season showed improvement offensively, and teased at what he may be capable of.

 

Defensively, I swear if he played one more step back and one more step toward CF plays would be easier for him.

[twinscowboysbulls]

I'm not so sure about trading Arcia, even though I like Miller.

 

A lot of us are penciling in Vargas as our DH for life, but I'm not so sure yet. He started to dive off a cliff towards the end of the year, while I realize he is young, still is a bit unsettling.  I still think it could end up being Arcia as our primary DH. Hope they both kill it though.

[kab21]

I don't have as much hope as the rest of you with Arcia's defensive improvement but possibly he can become Cuddyer-esque bad.  Cuddyer didn't cover a lot of ground but he played fairly smart.  Delmon on the other hand was a comical mess kind of bad.

 

I do have a lot of faith in Arcia's offensive upside.  He has some crazy skills if he command the K zone at all. 

 

Miller for Arcia is intriguing though.  He struggled last year but I'm buying.  The problem is that something significant would have to be added to make the deal work though.

[TheLeviathan]

I wouldn't do this just because of Arcia's upside, but let's not pretend about his defense:  it's awful.  Absolutely awful.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't like the implication that a player can simply "will" themselves to be better defensive players.  Even average MLB defenders are playing the game at its highest level -- the idea that Arcia can't achieve that only because he lacks focus and effort seems a bit demeaning.

[powrwrap]

I like this trade idea. I don't see Arcia improving his defensive game through practice. Outfield play involves a lot of instinct, reading the ball off the bat and getting a good jump on it. Arcia flat out doesn't have this. You can't practice judgment and instinct.

 

The Twins' biggest need is starting pitching. I say this trade makes sense.

[glunn]

 

Defensively, I swear if he played one more step back and one more step toward CF plays would be easier for him.

 

Agreed, and I wish that Santana would play 5 steps deeper.

[glunn]

I don't like the implication that a player can simply "will" themselves to be better defensive players.  Even average MLB defenders are playing the game at its highest level -- the idea that Arcia can't achieve that only because he lacks focus and effort seems a bit demeaning.

 

I don't see this as demeaning.  It seems to me that the key to maximizing defensive potential is repetitive practice, which takes focus and hard work.  This does not happen overnight -- it comes over time with practice.

[drock2190]

Miller sucks. I know this because I played fantasy baseball and no one would take him off my hands. I was afraid to start to him half the time.

 

But in all seriousness, I like Arcia going forward more. Miller has outperformed his perpherials in a "weaker" league and I don't think his upside is worth giving up an outfielder and then trying to fill two holes this offseason. 

[notoriousgod71]

It would make sense to trade Arcia as he is not a cookie cutter ball player like the rest of the Twins and has a personality and flair.

[iTwins]

I'm not ready to fold on Arcia yet. He's still very young, and he proved last year that he's capable of learning and adapting his game. Watch his early season plate appearances alongside his September plate appearances. He clearly worked on that part of his game and was showing signs of growth.

 

He has good enough range and a good arm - the talent is there, he just needs to learn. There's no reason to think he couldn't apply that same "learning drive" he found on offense towards the defensive side of his game and grow into a solid (or at least average) defender. His bat and average OF defense turns Arcia into a very solid player.

 

This isn't really part of the argument, but I also really like the kid. I like his fire, I like his personality. I want guys like that on the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

How is trading folding? If you want something in return, you have to give something up. 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think you can learn from being a bad outfielder to being a good one.  It isn't like the infield where repetition can transform a player.  Outfield is so much about instincts, foot speed, angles, and athleticism - I think you can mold a player with these things, but not without them.

 

Arcia looks like a guy who was born to play DH based on those four items.

[BrianTrottier]

I don't think you can learn from being a bad outfielder to being a good one.  It isn't like the infield where repetition can transform a player.  Outfield is so much about instincts, foot speed, angles, and athleticism - I think you can mold a player with these things, but not without them.

 

Arcia looks like a guy who was born to play DH based on those four items.

 

I fail to see how instinct, foot speed, angles, and athleticism are not as important to infielders as they are to outfielders. If anything I'd think infielders need to be more agile and athletic than outfielders (this ain't no beer leaguer saying this). Baseball is a game of angles and footwork all across the diamond.

 

I don't think anyone is saying Arcia can turn into a gold glover, but if he gets lots and lots of repetitions, good coaching, and internalizes the notion that he's a big league outfielder, I think he can make it (I'd also argue that Arcia does have the athleticism and foot speed to be "molded" into an outfielder). 

[BrianTrottier]

I like this trade idea. I don't see Arcia improving his defensive game through practice. Outfield play involves a lot of instinct, reading the ball off the bat and getting a good jump on it. Arcia flat out doesn't have this. You can't practice judgment and instinct.

 

The Twins' biggest need is starting pitching. I say this trade makes sense.

 

Hate to write back-to-back posts, but I've got to disagree with the part about not being able to practice judgement ("instinct" is too vague of a concept to argue about intelligibly, I think). If judgement cannot be learned, then why do coaches spend so much time with young hitters teaching them to gain command of the strike zone? It seems to me that the cognitive process of judging a ball from a strike has to be similar to that of distinguishing a ball that's catchable from one that's not, only in the latter case you've generally got a little time to adjust as opposed to the .5 seconds it takes a pitch to reach the plate.

 

If we argue that Arcia can gain command of the strike zone, improving his jugdment of balls and strikes (which some might call instinct), then why can he not learn how to get to more fly balls and have better command of the outfield?

[TheLeviathan]

I fail to see how instinct, foot speed, angles, and athleticism are not as important to infielders as they are to outfielders. If anything I'd think infielders need to be more agile and athletic than outfielders (this ain't no beer leaguer saying this). Baseball is a game of angles and footwork all across the diamond.

 

I don't think anyone is saying Arcia can turn into a gold glover, but if he gets lots and lots of repetitions, good coaching, and internalizes the notion that he's a big league outfielder, I think he can make it (I'd also argue that Arcia does have the athleticism and foot speed to be "molded" into an outfielder). 

 

Because soft hands and fielding grounders is largely the most you can do with an infielder.  

 

For example, Plouffe hasn't become a better third baseman because we increased his range or athleticism.  We've just cleaned up his throws and the booted grounders.  You can clean that up with repetition.

 

You can't teach instincts, speed, or athleticism and outfielders are almost totally reliant upon that.  I'd love to hear a litany of slow-footed, non-instinctual outfielders what were transformed out of that with coaching.  I can't think of any.

[Steve Lein]

I would love to get Miller to the Twins, but Arcia would be the second piece of any trade for him, not the name that gets the conversation started.

[Willihammer]

Arcia's entering his 8th season of pro ball. He's seen a million fly balls. I think he is what he is. I'd be curious to hear examples of outfielders who improved noticeably with the glove as they aged into their mid-20s, because I can't think of any.

 

And I think people are underestimating his trade value. Arcia finished the 2nd half on a tear. He has tantalizing power potential.

[nicksaviking]

I like Arcia but I'd do this trade.  I doubt St. Louis would though. 

 

If St. Louis needs to fill a hole, they go and shore it up in free agency, they don't typically trade away young players unless they are clearly expendable or redundant.  I'm not sure Miller is at that point.  He still has more value and upside than Joe Kelly.

 

Strange I know, seeing as they are merely a mid-market franchise.

[Linus]

The biggest problem with this trade is that we have no depth in the outfield.  We plug one hole and create another.  That's why the best trades come from trading from a position of strength which the Twins just don't have right now.

 

While he drives me nuts sometimes with his wild swings, I do think Arcia has the upside to be a potentially elite hitter and average defender.

[dxpavelka]

Trading Arcia could make sense or could turn out to be an Ortiz type blunder.  If it goes bad don't forget suggesting it.

[powrwrap]

Hate to write back-to-back posts, but I've got to disagree with the part about not being able to practice judgement ("instinct" is too vague of a concept to argue about intelligibly, I think). If judgement cannot be learned, then why do coaches spend so much time with young hitters teaching them to gain command of the strike zone? It seems to me that the cognitive process of judging a ball from a strike has to be similar to that of distinguishing a ball that's catchable from one that's not, only in the latter case you've generally got a little time to adjust as opposed to the .5 seconds it takes a pitch to reach the plate.

 

If we argue that Arcia can gain command of the strike zone, improving his jugdment of balls and strikes (which some might call instinct), then why can he not learn how to get to more fly balls and have better command of the outfield?

Because seeing a baseball from 60 feet away and it coming in the same general area around the plate is not the same thing as picking up a baseball hit from 275 feet away with spin and wind effects working on it and knowing where to go with your first step.

 

Edited to add: And judging by Arcia's strike out rate and walk rate he's got a lot more to learn about the strike zone.