Just a little FA SP options homework

[DocBauer]

So I did a little homework for my own information on FA SP options that may be of interest to the Twins. While doing so, FWIW, I thought I'd share my list here.

 

My criteria was pretty simple. I was looking for options that weren't over age 34, and had at least a decent history of making 30 starts per season. Considering Hughes, Nolasco and Gibson locked in, May, Milone and Meyer as options, (maybe Pelfrey) the last thing I felt the Twins would need is another 5th starter option. Also, many of us have talked about adding a "Hughes-like" option if possible. If you can't or aren't going to acquire a #1 SP, and honestly they are expensive and hard to come by, then 1 year, 2 year or 3 year, you want to at least bring in someone to actually have a shot near the top of the rotation.

 

Obviously I discounted Lester and Scherzer. I also want to discount Shields due to being 33, expecting regression soon, but also figuring financial demands and years might play beyond basic logic for the rebuilding Twins.

 

I'm also discounting Wei-Yin Chen, LH and 29 with a club option for $4.75M that is certain to be picked up, and Dan Haren, RH and 34 who holds a player option at $10M that he'd probably be foolish to pass up.

 

Top of my list is Ervin Santana, RH and 32. The Twins have been tied to him previously and is coming off a solid but unspectacular 2014. Wins and loses aren't the best way to quantify a pitcher, but if you compare career numbers and average seasons, he compares very closely to Nolasco. He's had better seasons than Nolasco, but hasn't been as consistent in W-L or ERA, though he does show a little higher in IP and SO's. His stuff is a bit more dynamic, and he's affordable I believe.

 

Others:

 

Gavin Floyd, RH, 32, no stud but a rebound candidate who had a nice 5 year run with the CWS in starts and IP.

Yovani Gallardo, RH, 29, 6 straight years of 30 plus games started with nice SO numbers. Club option of $13M. (Very interested, will the Brewers pick this option up? Can they afford it?)

Hisashi Iwakuma, RH, 34, three straight solid season, owed $7M club option. Guessing Seattle picks it up. If not?

Kyle Kendrick, RH, 30, a rough last 2 seasons but previously consistent in regard to games started and IP.

Justin Masterson, RH, 30, rough lately, but nice 4 year run in Cleveland with 29+ starts and good IP.

Edinson Volquez, RH, 30, up and down career, good SO numbers, 3 straight seasons of 30+ starts, inconsistent.

Joe Saunders, LH, 34, multiple 30+ games started seasons, solid IP numbers, low SO numbers and inconsistent.

 

There's a couple guys there that might be picked up by their clubs. But if not, I could be seriously in, even on a short deal. Available, or the Twins eventual new pitching coach doing a solid job, there's a couple "Hughes-like" potential signees there.

 

Injury concern options:

 

Chad Billingsley, RH, 30, quality career, a $14M club option you have to believe will be declined. He had TJ surgery, then had June surgery for a flexor tendon problem. He and his camp claim he'll be ready for ST. This is a long shot, but a potential low risk and high reward type of potential signing.

Paul Maholm, LH, 33, a very solid LHSP option but coming off August ACL surgery. Kind of a big deal. But with a nice rehab, another possible low risk high reward type.

 

A couple dark horse candidates:

 

James Shields, RH, 33, high quality option who might be beyond the rebuilding Twins means or discretion, as stated. But what if his market is not what he'd hope for or expect?

Francisco Liriano, LH, 31, this ship has probably long sailed, he's been a bit of a head case his whole career. But there is still some talent to work with there, and with a new manager and pitching coach, is a reunion possible?

 

Anyway, a list of acceptable and interesting possible FA SP options as I see them.

[Physics Guy]

Unless it's one of the top three, I say pass.  We have Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May, Meyer and Millone.  I'd rather give Meyer and Millone the opportunity if we aren't adding to the top half of the rotation.

[freshinthehouse]

My yearning for James Shields is reaching troubling levels.  GO GET 'EM, TERRY!

[jorgenswest]

Sign big or sign no one.

[jokin]

I have the same unhealthy feelings about him:

 

My yearning for James Shields is reaching troubling levels.  GO GET 'EM, TERRY!

 

1) Shields is the #1, realistically signable option, by far, Santana a nice runner-up prize.

 

2) The Twins have horrible luck with NL pitchers, which leaves out guys like Gallardo and Volquez

 

3) Consider signing a one-year deal with team options to either Masterson or Floyd.

[B Richard]

Interesting. I don't think there's a good chance Gallardo or Iwakuma hits the market. Santana is an intriguing choice because his contact rates are actually trending in a positive direction. He's getting more swings and misses at an age where most pitchers are beginning to decline. It looks like his two seamer has come along and he knows how to pitch. I don't think his production will totally fall off the table anytime soon. Anway, you'd probably have to go 4/75 to land him. Would you do it? I'd think about it.

 

After Santana I think the next most intriguing choice has got to be Masterson. He is only one season removed from a pretty dominant 2013. This year he got burned by a horrendous strand rate and a somewhat inflated BABIP. Nonetheless, he certainly wasn't as skilled as the guy we saw in '13. Do you take a shot at him? He's younger than most of the other options and might be a small tweak away from another great campaign. I'd be very tempted to throw three years at him.. with the going rate of starting pitching you might have to go 3/40 to ink him. 

[Willihammer]

The fan in me hopes for at least one of

 

1. Scherzer

2. Maeda

3. Lester

4. Liriano

5. Santana

 

The realist thinks next year's rotation was sorted out with the Fuld trade.

[the_youngster]

I would naturally like any of Lester, Scherzer, or Shields, but none of them are likely going to sign here. Shields is roughly equivalent to good Phil Hughes, only consistent from season to season. I would be fine with the twins rolling the dice on another comeback possibility (but only on one year with a possible option). My main preference would be Brandon Morrow. When they are on their game, Morrow, Shields, and Hughes are all in the same tier of #2 starter on really good teams / #1 on most teams. Maybe you find a gem in Morrow, if not Meyer/Berrios are in the wings to take over (assuming May is in the rotation, which I hope he is). If not, Morrow is another guy who could rediscover himself as a reliever once again or be jettisoned without harm done. At the very least a wild card pitcher should be signed for spring training.

[TKGuy]

I would certainly go after Gallardo if he becomes available and maybe only other one would be Masterson

 

Lester is going back to the Sox. It will certainly be interesting what the Tigers do with Scherzer. Their payroll is sky high and the team is aging. I know Torii won't be back so they have that money. I think the Tigers ship may have sailed already

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The chances of Liriano coming back to the Twins as a Free Agent changed when Gardy was let go - did they go up or down? It will probably depend on who the new guy is.

 

It's possible that the Texas Rangers of all teams might have an advantage now that their new Manager is in place. Banister was a bench coach for Pittsburgh, so maybe Liriano (and Volquez, too, for that matter) would be interested in following him to Arlington.

 

I would say it's about as likely as Jon Lester coming to the Twins if they hire Sox bench coach Lovullo, but ya never know! 

 

Billingsley, Floyd, Masterson are all interesting to go after - Fans might not have a taste for injured veterans after the last couple years of Pelfrey, but the nice thing is that the injured guy doesn't "block" anyone, and if it turns out that they are healthy, then the team gets a really nice addition to the rotation.

 

The hope is that you get a bounceback season like Scott Kazmir (or, ahem, Phil Hughes), and not one of the laundry list of guys that have tried to recover from an injury and just don't have it anymore. Signing Rich Harden didn't hurt the Twins at all, and there was potential for a big gain.

[twinscowboysbulls]

I think it would be a mistake to sign an average/rebound type pitcher this year. I think we have to trade Nolasco to be able to add any pitchers. 

 

I think Berrios is closer than we think and Meyer and May both deserve chances, especially during the rebuild. Milone is a decent 5th starter option IMO, plus we unfortunately have this other problem known as Pelfrey that we don't know how the new Manager is going to handle.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I don't think it's a mistake - if the rebound guy is better than 4 of the 5 starters in the rotation, that's a good thing. If he's not better than the pitchers they already have, the Twins can release the guy, or try to trade him to another team looking for a lottery ticket.

 

Pelfrey I think is going to be given a chance to work out of the bullpen as well as getting a chance to start in Spring Training. Again, if he's somehow better now than the rest of the rotation candidates, why not use him? 

 

Berrios is close to being ready, but I think he's going to be in AA/AAA for the next season.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The issue as I see it is that a big signing is going to further clog the rotation and keep guys like Meyer/May out of it. I don't see Hughes, Nolasco, or Gibson going anywhere really, and I think May get the 4th spot too. That leaves Pelf and Million as the candidates for the 5th spot. While neither excite me, I'd bet anything that another signing would likely put May on the bench unless the Twins could find a taker for Millone in particular. I'd also add that this leaves Meyer in AAA (though I think he should probably start there and work on his control).

 

If the Twins are going to sign someone, I'd say go big or go home. I don't see Scherzer coming here, though he'd be my first choice. I'm not a fan of Lester. Gallarado is an interesting option that I might be open to, but his K numbers dropped pretty significantly the last two years (striking out less than 7/9 in the NL in 2014). He's been more consistent than Nolasco, but he's already showing signs of something being wrong, and he's not going to get better making a switch to the AL. In the end, I see one option that would be worth the trouble (sans picking up a guy like Billingsly on the cheap), and I just dont' see it happening. If the Twins want help at SP, I think they trade for a young major league ready guy. That problem is that this guy is going to be expensive, and I think they are better off targeting it when they have a feel for where they are going to have a surplus of talent.

[Willihammer]

Billingsley, Floyd, Masterson are all interesting to go after - Fans might not have a taste for injured veterans after the last couple years of Pelfrey, but the nice thing is that the injured guy doesn't "block" anyone, and if it turns out that they are healthy, then the team gets a really nice addition to the rotation.

How many games do we have to burn finding out? What if the guy starts out with a 6% K-rate but 0.75 ERA - as in, super lucky? Nobody gets benched for being super lucky.\

 

You can go back to the reclamation guys last year - Bartlett, Guerrier, Kubel... all had some previous success. I rode the Kubel bandwagon as hard as anyone. In retrospect, it would have been better to get surer things, where you can chalk up success to "matching expecatations" and not luck, and don't have to burn X and Y number of PAs and innings of regression before finally cutting the guy.

[gunnarthor]

I think Masterson could be a nice buy low guy, sorta like Hughes last year.  If he's healthy, I'd try and get him over most of these other guys. 

[markos]

Outside the big 3, I would be fine with Santana, Masterson, Brandon McCarthy or Jake Peavy as the second tier. Most of the other pitchers on your list seem more like no-upside back-of-the-rotation guys, and I would rather see some combination of May/Meyer/Milone to that.

 

Also, I wouldn't object to a cheap reclamation project either. Billingsley was mentioned, and I think Scott Baker might fit as well. 

[nicksaviking]

Only guy I want on that list is Masterson, and that's because he's the only guy you'd likely be able to get on a one year deal.  Well maybe Billingsley also.  I'd be willing to give the Rich Harden lotto ticket offer to him.

 

Every one of those guys, icluding Lester and Scherzer, look like walking time bombs.  There were only 14 SP 34-years-old or older who threw enough innnings to qualify for the ERA title this year.  14.  Only 23 pitchers 32 or older. The age of veteran pitchers is almost over.  Everyone throws max effort and it's affecting longevity, it's a young man's game and I'll pass on signing anyone over 30 to a multi year deal unless it's clearly a steal.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

How many games do we have to burn finding out? What if the guy starts out with a 6% K-rate but 0.75 ERA - as in, super lucky? Nobody gets benched for being super lucky.\

 

You can go back to the reclamation guys last year - Bartlett, Guerrier, Kubel... all had some previous success. I rode the Kubel bandwagon as hard as anyone. In retrospect, it would have been better to get surer things, where you can chalk up success to "matching expecatations" and not luck, and don't have to burn X and Y number of PAs and innings of regression before finally cutting the guy.

 

The reunion tour guys weren't really in the same league as, say, Billingsley or Masterson. They were all several years past 30, whereas the guys that are named as possible bounceback candidates are still 30 or younger. The odds are better that one of them will improve. No certainty, of course, just a better set of odds.

 

I'll also say that having a starting pitcher go on a hot streak is more likely to get you wins during those hot streaks than a position player with a hot bat. Unless he's hitting homers, a hot bat doesn't even mean that the team as a whole is scoring runs. If the Twins can pick up 5 - 10 wins in the first two months from one of these guys, what's the harm?

 

I agree that the downside is how long a team sticks with a guy after the luck runs out. The thing is, I think the Twins have more pitching options to turn to than they had left fielders to turn to to replace Kubel.

[Willihammer]

The reunion tour guys weren't really in the same league as, say, Billingsley or Masterson. They were all several years past 30, whereas the guys that are named as possible bounceback candidates are still 30 or younger. The odds are better that one of them will improve. No certainty, of course, just a better set of odds.

 

I'll also say that having a starting pitcher go on a hot streak is more likely to get you wins during those hot streaks than a position player with a hot bat. Unless he's hitting homers, a hot bat doesn't even mean that the team as a whole is scoring runs. If the Twins can pick up 5 - 10 wins in the first two months from one of these guys, what's the harm?

 

I agree that the downside is how long a team sticks with a guy after the luck runs out. The thing is, I think the Twins have more pitching options to turn to than they had left fielders to turn to to replace Kubel.

Certainly the better odds are with Scherzer, Lester, probably Maeda, on down? I'm just not interested in playing the maximum WAR/$ game this offseason. This is the third straight offseason where they have a blaring gap in the rotation and the reason its there is because of they missed playing this dumb game with, Pelfrey and Nolasco. Get the market consensus best guy, get the best odds for once.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Certainly the better odds are with Scherzer, Lester, probably Maeda, on down?

 

Yes of course the best pitchers are better.  

 

I am just saying there's little risk involved in signing a pitcher to a one-year deal or a minor league deal. If one those bounceback guys want to re-establish value in Minnesota, that would probably work out well for both parties.

 

I think these are two separate issues. 1) The Twins should absolutely make every effort to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher, either through free agency or trade.

2) The Twins should also keep their eyes open for players that can benefit the team in a low cost, low risk, high upside deal.

 

I think the Twins need to address both of those issues. Oh and Left Field. And Center Field. and the Bullpen.

[Willihammer]

Yes of course the best pitchers are better.  

 

I am just saying there's little risk involved in signing a pitcher to a one-year deal or a minor league deal. If one those bounceback guys want to re-establish value in Minnesota, that would probably work out well for both parties.

 

I think these are two separate issues. 1) The Twins should absolutely make every effort to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher, either through free agency or trade.

2) The Twins should also keep their eyes open for players that can benefit the team in a low cost, low risk, high upside deal.

 

I think the Twins need to address both of those issues. Oh and Left Field. And Center Field. and the Bullpen.

I disagree. I think there's substantial risk in signing bounceback players. Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, are examples of how damaging those players can be when they don't bounce back (and they almost never do)

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

There's risk in having them play everyday and or giving them a guaranteed roster spot. Signing them without a promised spot is not a substantial risk at all.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I disagree. I think there's substantial risk in signing bounceback players. Kubel, Bartlett, Guerrier, are examples of how damaging those players can be when they don't bounce back (and they almost never do)

Firstly, none of those 3 were particularly damaging in 2014.  And any damage was due to the Twins ignoring the "non-guaranteed" part of their contracts and giving them roster spots anyway.

 

If we sign a Rich Harden type on a similar deal, I don't think it's much of an issue.

 

That said, most of the bounceback guys discussed here (Masterson, Billingsley, Morrow, etc.) should get some kind of guarantee, and that's because they are all significantly younger/better than the Kubel/Bartlett/Guerrier group and offer a lot more upside.

[Willihammer]

Last year everyone wanted Santana, Haren, and Johnson (am I forgetting anyone?) on bounceback deals.

 

Those players managed -2.1 WAR in 48 starts. 48!

[TheLeviathan]

Last year everyone wanted Santana, Haren, and Johnson (am I forgetting anyone?) on bounceback deals.

 

Those players managed -2.1 WAR in 48 starts. 48!

 

Well....we also sort of signed a bounce-back guy that bounced back fairly well.

 

There are mountains of risk with any FA you sign because life isn't 100% predictable and all sorts of FAs on all sorts of contracts have gone on to disappoint.  If anyone has the magic "this works every time!" formula - I strongly encourage you to stop wasting your time here and get your rear end down to One Twins Way to share it.

 

Otherwise, let's just accept every idea comes with risk.

[Brandon]

I think a trade is more likely based on the options presented.  there will be lots of pitchers available in trades cause next year there will be lots of pitchers available in FA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Last year everyone wanted Santana, Haren, and Johnson (am I forgetting anyone?) on bounceback deals.

 

Those players managed -2.1 WAR in 48 starts. 48!

Santana (Johan) and Johnson (Josh) didn't pitch in MLB in 2014.  I think you're counting Johnson's 2013 stats.

 

Haren was no great shakes, but he wasn't really disastrous either (think recent vintage Correia).

[Willihammer]

Santana (Johan) and Johnson (Josh) didn't pitch in MLB in 2014.  I think you're counting Johnson's 2013 stats.

Yes you're right, my mistake. The Padres inked Johnson to a 1 year make good deal and by a stroke of luck he went down with TJS in April and didn't see the field.

[USAFChief]

Morrow is the most intriguing buy low candidate, IMO. Then Masterson. Since there is zero chance of signing one of the big three, I hope for one of those two.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes you're right, my mistake. The Padres inked Johnson to a 1 year make good deal and by a stroke of luck he went down with TJS in April and didn't see the field.

Hey, if only the Twins had been so lucky with Nolasco! I kid, I kid.

 

Although the Johnson deal did have an interesting provision for a 2015 club option at $4 mil if Johnson started fewer than 7 games in 2014.  Not quite as sweet as the recent Lackey and Garza club option provisions, but interesting nonetheless.