Fangraphs discussion of Twins' prospects up

[gunnarthor]

I agree it was the KIND of trade to make, but if you miss on all the trades, then you have an issue.

Well, obviously that's true.  But Ryan hasn't missed on all his trades.  In fact, most look good and he didn't have a lot of highend talent to trade off (except the Span trade).

[Mike Sixel]

Well, obviously that's true.  But Ryan hasn't missed on all his trades.  In fact, most look good and he didn't have a lot of highend talent to trade off (except the Span trade).

 

I agree.....assuming May works out. If those both turn to RP, I'll be more negatively disposed to his trading ability.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I totally disagree, trading an above average CF for a RP is not a good trade at all. Not even close. You can find RP all over the place, it is clearly hard to find a CF......

 

I find the tone of some responses odd, almost as if people are somehow angry that scouts and others would say this about Meyer, that the MUST be wrong somehow.

 

Even with all the detailed conversations we have here, I still learned stuff about what others think. I thought it was well done.

 

The issue with these trades always comes down to risk vs. reward. You are right in that there's no way we should trade 3 years of a CF for an RP, even a lights out one. That's why no one liked the Span for Storen ideas that were percolating during the Bill Smith era. However, that's not what has happened here. Ryan traded the CF for a pitcher with 1 upside and a decent shot at making it and with a floor of RP. If Meyer doesn't pan out and becomes the RP, it sucks for the Twins. That doesn't mean the trade was the wrong idea. That's where the risk comes into play. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect (as prospectors like to say), and with pitching prospects, the amount of risk an organization takes on is even higher as they are far more likely to get hurt or not develop as planned. This is why a finding a #1 guy in AA or AAA is impossible. Teams won't trade them. This makes it even more difficult for a team like teh Twins who at the time desparately needed pitching.

 

In the end, it was the right move. Time will tell if it works out, but I'd do that trade 10 times out of 10.

[Mike Sixel]

You'd trade for Meyer specifically, or someone else? I agree(d at the time) with the trade in theory, but knew nothing about Meyer to say it was specifically a good trade. that is the point I am failing to make, trading from a position of strength to rebuild a team that is bad is a good idea. But it is not just the idea that has to be good, the execution has to be good.

 

If both May and Meyer fail, then they need, imo, to look at their scouting.

[SwainZag]

You'd trade for Meyer specifically, or someone else? I agree(d at the time) with the trade in theory, but knew nothing about Meyer to say it was specifically a good trade. that is the point I am failing to make, trading from a position of strength to rebuild a team that is bad is a good idea. But it is not just the idea that has to be good, the execution has to be good.

 

If both May and Meyer fail, then they need, imo, to look at their scouting.

 

What's your definition of failing?  Never pitching in the majors?  Not being aces?  What if one ends up as a solid 3 and the other an above average MR?  They traded Span for a former 1st round pick with high upside and got more for Revere than I think most of us ever thought they could.  What are you going to tell the scouting?  Hey those trades we made 5 years ago....bad deals man.  

[Beezer07]

IMO, you should be evaluating the trade based on the process/expectation/whatevs. If Meyer turns out to be a permanent RP, and it's attributable to his injuries, does that still mean the trade was a bad idea or the scouts need to be fired?

[lightfoot789]

From Fangraph:

13.

Adam Walker, RF (Video):

 

"Walker is a 6’4/225 physical specimen who looks like an NFL tight end;  Walker shows plus raw power in BP, but the real question is if he’ll make enough contact to get to his power in games?"

 

*They must mean MLB games - because he has hit 66 HRs in 319 games along with 54 doubles and 12 triples throughout his MiLB levels.   With consistency too.  What defines getting his power into games?

 

"Walker has made some adjustments and picked better pitches to hit this season, but there’s still a ways to go."

 

*That I agree with.  But not as long as many may think.  Argueably the best winning percentage of any minor leaguer in baseball over the last 3 seasons.

[Steve J]

Meh.

 

Interesting but nothing earth shattering. There's nothing wiring with the article, but most of us here on TD have been reading, even discussing, all the same reports for 2 plus years with all of these kids.

 

To put a lot of faith in the Meyer write up is being pessimistic and fatalistic. Call me stubborn or optimistic if you will, but virtually every other report I've ever read on Meyer has him as a quality ML SP with #1 potential. The guy was a first round pick for a reason. The top, or one of them, prospect in the Washington system when acquired, and has been a top 1-3 prospect in the Twins system since being acquired for a reason. He was a top performer in the AFL for a reason. He was in the Futures Games for a reason. So to get all worked up because one person writes a report saying his potential is lower is just silly.

 

Meyer is still young, has mad stuff, was on a pitch count, in his first tour of AAA, and still working on his 3rd pitching and repeating mechanics. Not uncommon for any or most pitching prospects, even top ones.

 

The parts of the article I found interesting was how highly they seemed to regard the "lesser" ranked prospects. Seemed they generally felt most of them had genuine ability to reach the majors at some point in some capacity.

 

Aren't those '#1 Starter' reports a couple years old (dated) now? He's 24 and walks too many people.   Granted something could click, but it better do so pretty quickly...

[twinssouth]

Not putting a lot of weight on Fangraphs.  I prefer our own evaluations, Sickels and of course, The Seth.

[DocBauer]

Aren't those '#1 Starter' reports a couple years old (dated) now? He's 24 and walks too many people.   Granted something could click, but it better do so pretty quickly...

Yes in the fact he's been considered a top of rotation starter for some time. But no that the reports are all old. Coming out of the last AFL season people were pretty jazzed by his performance and he was still regarded as a top of the rotation arm.

 

The only reason anyone is down on him is because of his inconsistency this year. 24 is not old for any AAA prospect, including a top arm on a 6' 9" youngster polishing mechanics. He walked too many and his change still lacks the consistency needed. But at times the coaches at Rochester spoke in glowing terms of how it looked. He walked too many to be sure, but also lead his league in SO's. And despite a pair of bad stretches, he also had two or three stretches where he was just lights out about every time he took the mound. And again, he's risen steady up the ladder and this was his first time at AAA. I'm excited for him and have little fear or doubt at this time.

 

Just a side note, despite what I just stated, and believe strongly, if he would turn out to be the potentially lights out closer mentioned in the article, it might be a disappointment, but said disappointment would be tempered with the aspect of a top closer to eventually replace Perkins.

[kab21]

You'd trade for Meyer specifically, or someone else? I agree(d at the time) with the trade in theory, but knew nothing about Meyer to say it was specifically a good trade. that is the point I am failing to make, trading from a position of strength to rebuild a team that is bad is a good idea. But it is not just the idea that has to be good, the execution has to be good.

 

If both May and Meyer fail, then they need, imo, to look at their scouting.

 

Great prospects fail all the time even with great scouting.  And I certainly wouldn't make any changes based the development of two prospects.  For years it's been popular to bash the Twins for filling the roster and minors with guys that can't get K's and somehow manage to be solid pitchers.  Now you are ready to bash them because they traded for a pair of prospects that have the stuff to get K's (and a lot of them) and they might fail? 

 

Meyer's scouting report doesn't read significantly differently than it did when he was traded for.  There has always been mention of moving to the bullpen but he's been hyped up on here because of his great results.  This scouting report kind of illustrates exactly why he stayed in AAA all year.  He might have been better than Darnell/Pino/etc but he still has stuff to work on.

[Mike Sixel]

Given that they have had the worst SP in the majors for several years now, being wrong on Meyers and May would not, imo, be isolated cases........something isn't working, and hasn't been for some time.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given that they have had the worst SP in the majors for several years now, being wrong on Meyers and May would not, imo, be isolated cases........something isn't working, and hasn't been for some time.

The problem isn't with the Twins though. Meyer is a top 100 prospect which means that there are a lot of people wrong about him. May was a bit of a different scenario in that he was more of a reclamation project.

 

I agree with the other posters here. Regardless of the results, I make those trades 10 out of 10 times. Both guys came into this system and have developed quite nicely I might add, so much so that a guy that people had written off just 2 years ago (May) is now looked at as someone who can be in a major league rotation, and despite his control issues (Meyer), he's still looked at as a potential top ceiling guy or shut down reliever.

 

Scouting is an inexact science. Expecting perfection where there is often failure is just unrealistic.

[Thrylos]

OK.

 

For the record:

 

Everyone who thinks that Meyer should be relegated to the pen, he/she shall be examined and potentially committed to one of those state hospitals.

 

Same for the one who ranks Gordon ahead of Polanco.

 

2 strikes for that guy.  Wonder whether he has seen any of those guys play...

[USAFChief]

OK.

 

For the record:

 

Everyone who thinks that Meyer should be relegated to the pen, he/she shall be examined and potentially committed to one of those state hospitals.

 

Same for the one who ranks Gordon ahead of Polanco.

 

2 strikes for that guy.  Wonder whether he has seen any of those guys play...

I suspect Gordon will be ranked ahead of Polanco on more than one list.

 

Have you seen them play, Seth?

[kab21]

OK.

 

For the record:

 

Everyone who thinks that Meyer should be relegated to the pen, he/she shall be examined and potentially committed to one of those state hospitals.

 

Same for the one who ranks Gordon ahead of Polanco.

 

2 strikes for that guy.  Wonder whether he has seen any of those guys play...

 

You seem to have completely misunderstood the discussion and the writeup on Meyer.  Right now there's a chance that he sticks as a starter but the fallback is a potentially lights out RP'er.  He will definitely get chances to stick in the rotation (and everyone thinks so).  The only way that he moves to RP'er quickly is if there is significant doubt that his shoulder will hold up as a starter.

[biggentleben]

News has been coming out left and right from Atlanta since Wren was fired, one of which was the negotiations he had for Span before going crazy and signing BJ Upton.  The Twins first asked for Julio Teheran AND J.R. Graham for Span.  That pissed Wren off enough that after going through the league and finding his value not to be what they thought, Wren dismissed them when they offered Span for just JR Graham.  Graham and Meyer were very similar prospects at the time, and in some circles at that time, Graham was much higher-though-of.  Now Graham's had two years of injury and is most likely done as a starter while Meyer is likely going to pitch himself out of the rotation at the major league level rather than being hurt and forced out.  Twins fans should be happy with what they got.  When you trade for young pitching, you take on a TON of risk.

[Mike Sixel]

Who asked for perfection? I think having the worst pitching in the majors for multiple years indicates there is a system problem. YMMV

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Who asked for perfection? I think having the worst pitching in the majors for multiple years indicates there is a system problem. YMMV

Mike, you may have not been using that word, but your conclusions regarding Meyer and May imply just that. As Ben said, there is a ton of risk when you take on a prospect, especially pitching prospects as there's very little in terms of sure things with them. That's especially true with K guys. There's a reason the Metrodome Twins drafted a ton of soft tossers. They provided less risk, and for a team that couldn't afford to whiff on their first round pick, this was something they could do to minimize that risk. We all have said we wanted to see less of those type of picks, and to the Twin's credit, they've gone out and done it... but let's not turn around and castigate them for doing what we wanted them to do and then expect them to perfectly navigate the risk each time. That's unrealistic.

[USAFChief]

Drafting low K soft tossers minimizes risk?

 

Minimizes the risk of what?

[biggentleben]

Drafting low K soft tossers minimizes risk?

 

Minimizes the risk of what?

 

In general a control pitcher (not a pure soft-tosser, but someone who locates very well) will be more likely to at least have a major league career, even if it's in the bullpen.  I think that's where the risk is lowered, but for every 1,000,000 guys LIKE Greg Maddux, there's been one Greg Maddux.  I remember for years hearing every control lefty compared to Tom Glavine.  Glavine's the extreme outlier result of a control-specialist lefty.  Your 95% result is Jamie Moyer with more often the starting career (if the guy even lasts as a starter) looking a lot like Shawn Estes, a guy who sits well at #4-5 in the rotation for a long time because he eats innings at a 90-100 ERA+ rate.  Control righties have a lot more variability.

[kab21]

Who asked for perfection? I think having the worst pitching in the majors for multiple years indicates there is a system problem. YMMV

 

This is exactly what I'm talking about.  You should be happy that they seemed to have altered their pitching prospect profile since they have loaded the system up with control pitchers for too long.  In the last 2-3 years they have went after prospects with at least moderately good stuff.  It's very frustrating that you want heads to roll if a couple of these types of prospects bust.

[Badsmerf]

In general a control pitcher (not a pure soft-tosser, but someone who locates very well) will be more likely to at least have a major league career, even if it's in the bullpen.

 

I really couldn't disagree more. A control pitcher, like Slowey, is no more likely to make it in the MLB than a guy that throws hard, like Meyer. That, is the fallacy the Twins were playing off for a decade and the draft record shows that pretty well. Why draft a soft tossing SP that has an upside of back-end starter and might be destined for the pen when you have draft a guy like Burdi that will most likely reach the MLB faster and have a longer/better career?

 

Soft tossing pitchers are not an effective strategy. Sure, you have guys like Maddox that break the mold. He is what they say the exception, not the rule.

[biggentleben]

I really couldn't disagree more. A control pitcher, like Slowey, is no more likely to make it in the MLB than a guy that throws hard, like Meyer. That, is the fallacy the Twins were playing off for a decade and the draft record shows that pretty well. Why draft a soft tossing SP that has an upside of back-end starter and might be destined for the pen when you have draft a guy like Burdi that will most likely reach the MLB faster and have a longer/better career?

 

Soft tossing pitchers are not an effective strategy. Sure, you have guys like Maddox that break the mold. He is what they say the exception, not the rule.

 

But you're missing my distinction.  A control-focused pitcher without overwhelming velocity is different than a soft-tosser.  Because you can spin a breaking ball effectively in college doesn't make you a great control pitcher.  Moyer flamed out and went back to work on fastball/changeup control to turn himself into the pitcher he became.  Guys with exceptional control at 91 without major velocity do actually have a higher percentage of making it at least to the big leagues.  Impacting at the big leagues is a very, very different thing.  A guy who plugs the 13th spot on a pitching roster is not the same as an 8th inning reliever. Effectively Wild referenced a study done a number of years ago on velocity not correlating with major league appearances in draft picks.  I've also seen a few attempts at a "weighted" study of the same variety, putting weight into draft position along with velocity, and it sways even further away from correlation between velocity and success in development because high velocity typically gets drafted higher as well.  Once again, I'm talking about the guys who are mostly fastball/change with 91-92 top end velocity and grade 6-7 control, not guys who simply throw a lot of different moving pitches that are typically labeled as a soft tosser in spite of more like 3-4 control.

[Badsmerf]

I guess it all depends on your definition of control pitcher then. I know the data you are referencing. I think the landscape of baseball has changed. 

[jharaldson]

Scouting is an inexact science. Expecting perfection where there is often failure is just unrealistic.

 

I don't think anyone is claiming perfection has to be the goal.  We traded away over 10 WAR for 2013-2014 in Revere and Span and it isn't unreasonable to say that at least one of the 3 players we got back has to pay out.  Just because they follow the right process and trade older guys for younger guys doesn't mean they should not be held accountable if none of the young guys work out.  Worley's value in the trade is now known so at least one of May or Meyer has to hit or it is reasonable to say that Ryan and the scouts have failed in these 2 very closely tied trades.

[kab21]

The way to evaluate it is to evaluate the system as a whole.  They now have 5-6 very interesting arms with good stuff that they have recently acquired.  Some will bust and some will make it.  What the trades did was give the Twins better odds of one of those interesting arms making it.  If you grade every move individually like this then there is no reason for the Twins to go after riskier, higher upside players like Meyer and May. 

 

According to you they need to have something to show for the trade and would have been better off getting lower upside and less risky prospects.  This is exactly what I don't want.

[nicksaviking]

I agree with everyone saying the Span for Meyer trade was just what this club needed to try, even if Meyer doesn't work out.  I do think Mike has a point however in that our expectations need to be rewarded once in awhile. 

 

Ryan has not made a trade that panned out in a long time.  We do have several that are TBD involving guys like Meyer, May, Milone and Gilmartin but pending future results, Ryan has not scored big on a deal in quite awhile.  We need to have our patience rewarded, and I'd think soon.  The GM doesn't get a free pass for trade failures in perpetutity becase he made some shrewed ones over a decade ago.

 

But for the record, I think both Meyer and May are going to work out.

[diehardtwinsfan]

nicksaviking, on 07 Oct 2014 - 09:17 AM, said:

 

I agree with everyone saying the Span for Meyer trade was just what this club needed to try, even if Meyer doesn't work out.  I do think Mike has a point however in that our expectations need to be rewarded once in awhile.

Ryan has not made a trade that panned out in a long time.  We do have several that are TBD involving guys like Meyer, May, Milone and Gilmartin but pending future results, Ryan has not scored big on a deal in quite awhile.  We need to have our patience rewarded, and I'd think soon.  The GM doesn't get a free pass for trade failures in perpetutity becase he made some shrewed ones over a decade ago.

But for the record, I think both Meyer and May are going to work out.

 

I think I take issue with the idea that Ryan hasn't made trades that have panned out.  He had quite the reputation in his first run at GM as he aquired guys like Bartlett, Santana, Liriano, and Nathan.  He picked up guys like Bonser and Casilla who had small runs, and he failed on Zach Ward and Justin Jones. 

 

In his second run as GM, I'd hardly say he hasn't made any good ones.  He hasn't hit any homeruns, but he's already gotten value, especially considering what he was giving up.  Liriano for Escobar/Hernandez is already a win even though Hernandez is done.  I think you can say the Butera for Nunez (via Sulbaran) is also a win (even though that one isn't a swing for the fences type win).  Even if Gilmartin never sniffs the majors, the Gilmartin for Doumit trade was a win.  Doumit had a grand total of 157 PAs this season in Atlanta with an OPS well under .600.  The Morneau trade might be the closest thing to a loss, but he wasn't lights out for Pittsburg or for MN that year and we still have Johnson in our system as a capable spot starter.   The Meyer and May trades are the high profile ones, but they are still TBD, though given the careers of Span and Revere, it won't take a lot of WAR out of either of them for it to be a wash, but I have to think that the odds are in our favor there, even if these guys never reach their ceiling.  Likewise, picking up potential good relievers in Adams/Pryor for marginal pieces isn't going to hurt the team either.  The big difference between this run and his first run is that he really hasn't fleeced anyone except maybe the WhiteSox.

[laloesch]

McDaniel seemed higher on Polanco and Gordon than most and lower on Meyer (thinks he'll be a reliever) than most. He didn't mention Hu at all (was that an oversight?), but he did mention Lefty Cameron Booser, who I don't think was on the Twins Daily top 50 at all. He also seems to really like Thorpe, and doesn't seems to think the risk from his elbow issue is major.

 

 

Just my opinion but he doesn't seem as high on Stewart either.  Everyone was calling this kid a flame throwing, future ace, but with a fastball that sits in the low 90's that's hard to see.