2015 Starting Rotation: Opening Day

[stringer bell]

1. Hughes (3.18 xFIP)

2. Gibson (4.01)

3. Nolasco (4.15)

4. Milone (4.24 career xFIP)

5. Pelfrey (4.55 career xFIP)

 

That's not awesome, but it shouldn't be crappy, either. Short leash for everybody because the AAA depth should be good. Ideally, trade Pelfrey early in the season to let in May/Meyer.

 

Also, watch for high-upside opportunities on the FA market. Guys like Justin Masterson, Brett Anderson & Brandon Morrow might be available on 1-year, value-rebuilding deals.

"Not awesome, but not crappy"--that's what I thought this year, and it didn't pan out that way. Is it Anderson, is it miserable outfield defense, are the Twins cursed because they took out the trees? Something just isn't right, with Hughes being the notable exception.

[Thegrin]

Some bad fielding has led to some losses.  Some bad relief has led to some losses, but mostly, in my opinion, it has been bad pitching that has led to the bad pitching. 

-Gibson has shown his inexperience and immaturity. 

-Nolasco has not been physically OK,  however, I was satisfied with his last outing.

-Milone has had a dead arm and should be OK for the rest of the season.

-May is overwhelmed, but is showing some improvement.

None of this can be attributed to Anderson.  Different players mature at different rates.The Twins have been unlucky. 

[drjim]

Super depressing thread .... worst starter ERA in the league, and most believe it will be the same guys. Mauer is not getting younger.

 

Mauer might not be getting any better either.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just think for a moment how nice the options for next season sound compared to the past few years?

Hughes (still young), Gibson (younger and former top prospect developing nicely), Nolasco (forget this year, healthy he's experienced and solid)

Instead of Blackburn, Slowey, Walters, Diamond and others; we have Pelfrey (okokok), Milone (an actual viable ML LH with a positive record), and two top prospects in May and Meyer. Not to mention Berrios possibly ready by the end of 2015.

My best guesses? May is part of the rotation. I think at least 1 of the 2 kids is there. It could by Meyer easily, but I'm picking May for now because, well, he's ahead of Meyer right now. He's getting experience similar to what Gibson got last year. And I like Milone better than Pelfrey. He's younger, LH, and won't be "rehab" mode.

My gut tells me Pelfrey is in the pen, on the DL, or possibly in EST to begin. And remember, this is to start the year, not what it might by June or July 1st.

and yet this team is still 30th in the league in team ERA, incremental improvement for sure, but good enough?

[peterb18]

If they hold back Meyer he should ask for a trade. I always thought that the best players play. Ryan should quit fooling around with their futures. How you think Myers feels watching those other guys being called up?

Hard throwing pitchers should always be brought up early because of potential arm problems.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1. Hughes (3.18 xFIP)

2. Gibson (4.01)

3. Nolasco (4.15)

4. Milone (4.24 career xFIP)

5. Pelfrey (4.55 career xFIP)

Be very careful with this kind of analysis -- while I get that FIP/xFIP can be more predictive that ERA, xFIP also basically limits how bad a team/pitcher can look (i.e., the worst teams/pitchers always have much worse ERAs than xFIPs).  Also, teams and players are also clustered a lot closer by xFIP than they ever are by ERA.  So far in 2014, MLB team starter ERAs range from 3.11 to 5.09, while xFIPs range from 3.17 to 4.36.

 

The Twins SP have notably underperformed their xFIPs by a wide margin for 3-4 years running now, so it's not a good idea to bank on xFIP as a means of improvement.

[stringer bell]

Real defensive improvement is needed to get those ERAs in line with their fielding independent cousins. If the Twins don't get in on Shields/Lester, how about signing Justin Masterson. His situation is quite similar to Hughes going into last off-season. He seems to have a good year followed by a bad year, he's relatively young and throws pretty hard. Masterson gets a bunch of ground balls when he's right, which would be a bonus, with the defensive prowess of the Twins' outfield.

[Physics Guy]

From what I see, the prevailing opinion is what I see happening:

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Millone/Meyer/Pellfrey (please no!)

 

What I want to happen:

Scherzer/Lester 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May/Meyer

 

AAA - Millone and Pellfrey

 

What Ryan might be willing to do:

Shields/Iwakuma

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May/Meyer

 

From what I can tell, they have about $60M committed to next year and cold afford one of the top 4 FA available above.  I don't see them getting into a bidding war for Scherzer or Lester but think Shields or Iwakuma might be realistic.

[Physics Guy]

Stringer - I think something may be physically wrong with Masterson.  His BB/9 is almost 5 and his average fastball velocity is down over 2 mph (91.6 to 88.9).  If we are signing somebody, I'd like to shoot a bit higher.  Hughes' velo had stayed pretty consistent.

[stringer bell]

Stringer - I think something may be physically wrong with Masterson.  His BB/9 is almost 5 and his average fastball velocity is down over 2 mph (91.6 to 88.9).  If we are signing somebody, I'd like to shoot a bit higher.  Hughes' velo had stayed pretty consistent.

I actually googled Masterson and couldn't find any breakdown on his pitching this year. When the Twins faced him earlier, he had pretty good velo, but he had poor command.

[Paul Pleiss]

I think Rick Anderson's dismissal will likely be followed by Gardy falling on his sword and bowing out as well. Those two have been linked since their days in the Met's organization, and it stinks. Cut the cord.

 

The Twins still have need in the rotation, that's for sure. If we're falling in love with the guys we have not wanting to bring in quality arms that may "push" young guys out, we're not thinking right. More better arms is the answer. You can't have too much pitching. Swarzak, Duensing, Burton, those guys can all go and get replaced by starters who get shelved until someone gets hurts or stinks.

 

I think we as fans get hung up on the guys that we have seen grow up in the system and who have been around for awhile doing leage average or slightly above league average. We know them. We want them to reach their potential. But sometimes the right answer is someone new. Someone who didn't grow up under the Rick Anderson regime. Throwing strikes and not walking guys is a good idea, but so is missing bats and throwing the ball really freaking hard.

[jokin]

I actually googled Masterson and couldn't find any breakdown on his pitching this year. When the Twins faced him earlier, he had pretty good velo, but he had poor command.

 

His FB velo has collapsed in the months of August and September- something is definitely wrong with Masterson.  Meanwhile, a guy with a huge velo upswing and underlying numbers much better than his record indicates is Brandon McCarthy.

[oldguy10]

Most of this thread seems to be predicated on the Twins acquiring two starters in the off season that will be comparable to Hughes.   Is this realistic?   I think so but we will have to wait and see what happens regarding it.   Personally I do not think ownership will bust for that sort of fiscal outlay, who agrees or disagrees with me on that statement?

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Most of this thread seems to be predicated on the Twins acquiring two starters in the off season that will be comparable to Hughes.   Is this realistic?   I think so but we will have to wait and see what happens regarding it.   Personally I do not think ownership will bust for that sort of fiscal outlay, who agrees or disagrees with me on that statement?

History implies that the Twins will not spend big this offseason - last offseason was an exception to a rule of getting very low risk low upside FA pitching.

 

Maybe they will repeat last year's method and try to sign one or even two FA starters that are league average or better (league average meaning guys that are at least as expensive/ "proven" as Ricky Nolasco)

 

And maybe they will go after a FA outfielder to take over in Left...

 

Last offseason they addressed some of the big holes (SP x2, C) while leaving others (LF, CF) - it's possible that it's now the way they will do business going forward. I'm skeptical.

 

I agree with some of the earlier posts - players like Morrow, McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Justin Masterson might sign short deals to make good. The Twins should consider guys like that to challenge the notion that Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey have job security.  

[tobi0040]

History implies that the Twins will not spend big this offseason - last offseason was an exception to a rule of getting very low risk low upside FA pitching.

 

Maybe they will repeat last year's method and try to sign one or even two FA starters that are league average or better (league average meaning guys that are at least as expensive/ "proven" as Ricky Nolasco)

 

And maybe they will go after a FA outfielder to take over in Left...

 

Last offseason they addressed some of the big holes (SP x2, C) while leaving others (LF, CF) - it's possible that it's now the way they will do business going forward. I'm skeptical.

 

I agree with some of the earlier posts - players like Morrow, McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Justin Masterson might sign short deals to make good. The Twins should consider guys like that to challenge the notion that Nolasco, Milone, and Pelfrey have job security.  

 

Agreed.  I think handing Nolasco $50M and seeing the results this year, which are either an implosion or an injury, highlights and to the Twins may justify not spending big on an FA pitcher.  I am not saying they should never sign a guy and I am not saying that I would not, but I will be surprised if the Twins shell out any sort of commitment this year.  I could see a few re-tread, minor league deals to guys that were good 3 years ago. 

 

It took the franchise 50 years to go out in free agency and spend money. I just don't see them going back to the market and making another large commitment.

[Mike Sixel]

Not true, they signed Jack Morris to a huge (at the time) contract. This is not their first foray.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

History implies that the Twins will not spend big this offseason - last offseason was an exception to a rule of getting very low risk low upside FA pitching.

Not only could it be an exception, it was a fairly minor one.  Hughes was the only high upside guy they got, and his contract made him a pretty low risk.  Nolasco was a traditional low upside Twins acquisition... just for more money (or risk).  (Pelf was a classic Twins FA, both low risk and low upside.)

 

Neither move suggests the Twins will even remotely be in on top-shelf FA SP this offseason, that's for sure.

[tobi0040]

Not true, they signed Jack Morris to a huge (at the time) contract. This is not their first foray.....

 

While at the time it was a large annual contract, it was a one year deal.  These are different times and I don't consider this apples to apples.  Impact free agent pitchers aren't signing a one year deal.  Guys like Lester, Shields, or Scherzer are getting 6-8 year deals in the $24-26M range per year.  I could actually see us giving Scherzer a one year deal for $25M. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

While at the time it was a large annual contract, it was a one year deal.  These are different times and I don't consider this apples to apples.  Impact free agent pitchers aren't signing a one year deal.  Guys like Lester, Shields, or Scherzer are getting 6-8 year deals in the $24-26M range per year.  I could actually see us giving Scherzer a one year deal for $25M. 

It wasn't quite a one-year deal.  Morris had two player options too, so it was risky for the team -- they would have been on the hook for all 3 years if Morris had not performed well in that first one.  (Dude was coming off 3 seasons of 89 ERA+ pitching too.)  On the other hand, contracts and salaries were escalating pretty quickly too, so it ultimately wasn't that rich of a deal (hence why he opted out after 1 year).

 

And thank goodness he opted out, the next two years he posted a combined 86 ERA+!

 

EDIT: But I agree with your larger point.  It was a small potatoes commitment compared to current frontline FA prices.  Moreover, it was a prelude to the "hometown" FA deals we signed later in the 1990's, and it was for an innings eater to boot.

[Mike Sixel]

I do agree that FA is different now.....but so are the income streams. That said, not holding my breath on the Twins signing a big time, elite, SP.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I will stick by earlier statement - if the Twins manage to sign one of the top 3 FA pitchers and a LF this offseason (either Melky or Yasmani Tomas), I'll buy season tickets for 2015.

[James Richter]

I hadn't realized the ERA/FIP discrepancy was in its 4th straight year. That degree of consistent underperforming is definitely the sort of thing that should get a coach fired.

 

Whether the Twins sign a LF or go with Hicks or Schafer, we should expect much improved range out there compared with the Delmon Young/Josh Willingham days. Hopefully that can help bring the ERAs a little closer to where they ought to be.

[USAFChief]

I hadn't realized the ERA/FIP discrepancy was in its 4th straight year. That degree of consistent underperforming is definitely the sort of thing that should get a coach fired.

 

Whether the Twins sign a LF or go with Hicks or Schafer, we should expect much improved range out there compared with the Delmon Young/Josh Willingham days. Hopefully that can help bring the ERAs a little closer to where they ought to be.

 

The Twins were 5th in the AL in ERA in 2010 with Delmon in LF.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

It's kind of amazing to think that Nolasco's contract was nearly the largest FA starting pitching contract of the last offseason.

 

Tanaka's contract more than doubled everyone elses, but #2 was a tie with Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez both making $50MM over 4 years.

 

Nolasco's $49MM over four years almost looks like a stea-*Dodges brick*

 

It would both be surprising and not surprising if the Twins tried rolling the dice again - they obviously felt that they had money to spend last off-season . . . they would still be below annual payrolls they've had in the past

[DocBauer]

Personally, I don't expect Hughes to regress. Could it happen? Of course. And it's not hard these days to be a Twins pessimist. However, he is a former top prospect in all of baseball, has solid stuff, showed real flashes with the Yankees despite an up and down, somewhat to mostly disappointing career there. Is the whole change of scenery the result of probably his best career year? I think there could be a lot of reasons. But with talent, relative youth, and posted results, I just don't expect regression.

 

Gibson is, more or less, a rookie this year, despite his time with the Twins last season. And I say that not because it's his first full season, but due to the interruption in his upward projection, rehab, and a feeling that last season was almost an internship/introduction. I expect him to show greater consistency next season and take another step forward in 2015.

 

We are all HUGELY disappointed in Nolasco's season. But even those who weren't crazy about his signing still felt the Twins got a solid SP overall. As disappointed and frustrated as we've all been with his first season with the Twins, I think it's pre-mature at least, if not foolish, to believe he was a wasted signing and won't rebound to at least career norms next year.

 

As stated previously, the Twins DID make a big push for Garza even after signing Nolasco and Hughes. Again, with the progress of Meyer and May and Berrios, does the organization feel the same earnest need to go out and sign a major SP FA this year? No question it could immediately improve the team. But then what? And I ask honestly. I'd love to see it happen...but...now we have said FA and Nolasco signed for 3-4 years, Hughes another 2, and might be strongly served signing him to an extension if things keep up with him. So what to do with May and Meyer and Berrios?

 

It's easy to just say, "oh, we'll just go trade someone." Maybe. But it's not always easy to do that.

 

Not saying the Twins will or won't, should or shouldn't, just wondering at the overall rebuild plan and how this affects it? Do we really commit 4-6 years and at least 18M if not 20+ to one 30yo veteran? (Lester and Scherzer to be sure) Or do we set our sites a little lower for Shields, Santana and a few others mentioned. They are all 30 or older when next season begins. Not ancient, not cooked, but you could end up overpaying the final year or two.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

 you could end up overpaying the final year or two.

 

Or in Nolasco's case, overpaying for the first year, but hopefully not the next three.

[James Richter]

Delmon Young's awfulness in the field in 2010 seems to have been offset by the sensational up-the-middle D provided by Span/Hardy/Hudson/Mauer. The point is, that staff's rather good ERA was exactly in line with its FIP & xFIP because the batted ball outcomes against it were normal overall. When you have elite defenders at multiple positions, you can have a plodder or two and have it come out in the wash. As the Twins have merely average-ish defenders penciled in at most positions for 2015, improving the D in LF from ghastly to good is likely to improve the overall balance of the fielders and have a positive impact on BABIP, therefore moving the ERA closer to FIP. It's not a magic bullet, but it should help.

[iTwins]

Personally, I don't expect Hughes to regress. Could it happen? Of course. And it's not hard these days to be a Twins pessimist. However, he is a former top prospect in all of baseball, has solid stuff, showed real flashes with the Yankees despite an up and down, somewhat to mostly disappointing career there. Is the whole change of scenery the result of probably his best career year? I think there could be a lot of reasons. But with talent, relative youth, and posted results, I just don't expect regression.

 

Right, this isn't a case like Scott Diamond where the Twins clearly caught lightning in a bottle and got a good season from an underwise underwhelming pitcher. Hughes was a top prospect and has been a solid performer. For some reason, the New York stage got to him (the ballpark probably didn't help either) and he underperformed. I think we're seeing the 'real' Phil Hughes this season.

 

Going into 2015, he's the ONLY piece of the rotation I feel 100% confident about. (Gibson is close, but I'm all in on Hughes being who he's showing us this year).

[Mike Sixel]

Given the number of SP this minor league system has delivered in the last 5 years. do we really think they should avoid signing good, proven, MLB starters? Do we really think they should just continue to pocket money, and not get MLB players in FA? 

[nicksaviking]

My bold prediction is that Kyle Gibson will not be in the 2015 rotation. He's young(ish), he's controlable and he could be the Twins version of Rick Porcello, where he has value due to these factors along with his former top prospect status.

 

My prediction is that the Twins will move Gibson as part of a package to get Gio Gonzalez who Washington will be willing to move so they can free up some money in an attempt to go after one of the top bats or an even bigger named pitcher like Scherzer or Lester in free agency this off season.