Giving credit to LEN3 for calling Twins to account on CF situation

[TheLeviathan]

I really think you're underselling how difficult that play was to finish. Hicks wasn't running full speed but he was moving at a good clip and got leather on the ball.

 

He borderline got forearm on the ball. Which means he overran and overjumped it. If he was better at reading the flight path he likely wouldn't have had to go barreling into the wall.

 

It's not like this is the first time he's made these sorts of mistakes.

[nicksaviking]

It's only a 50/50 split if you ignore all the things they're doing in the minors. The Twins have one of the best minor league systems right now, their rotation at Rochester is looking really good, and they've stumbled a bit with their position players lately through injury and/or suspension but it's hard to fault the front office for that.

 

It's tough to watch the MLB team but there are bright spots there as well. Pinto, Plouffe, Dozier, Mauer, Hughes, the bullpen... All strong points for the team going forward.

 

I'd actually agree that they do more things right than wrong, but it's still not a good enough percentage for me. I'm excited about many minor leaguers, but there's still never going to be a payoff if it's always the minor leagues that are the positive and the major league club is the failure. They are continually failing in the area that counts most.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He borderline got forearm on the ball. Which means he overran and overjumped it. If he was better at reading the flight path he likely wouldn't have had to go barreling into the wall.

 

It's not like this is the first time he's made these sorts of mistakes.

 

I agree that going back appears to be his biggest weakness as a defender but, again, that's a tough play and I've seen multiple-time Gold Glovers make similar "errors" in calculation while going backwards mid-jump.

 

It was a damned tough play for any outfielder. We've all seen Hicks do some pretty baffling things in the field but I have a hard time counting that play as one of them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd actually agree that they do more things right than wrong, but it's still not a good enough percentage for me. I'm excited about many minor leaguers, but there's still never going to be a payoff if it's always the minor leagues that are the positive and the major league club is the failure. They are continually failing in the area that counts most.

 

I agree that they make too many mistakes on issues that seem pretty obvious to even casual fans. I'm not defending every move they make. I'm simply responding to Mike's implication that the entire front office is indefensible. They do a lot right. I'd like them to do more things right, just like everybody else.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree that going back appears to be his biggest weakness as a defender but, again, that's a tough play and I've seen multiple-time Gold Glovers make similar "errors" in calculation while going backwards mid-jump.

 

It was a damned tough play for any outfielder. We've all seen Hicks do some pretty baffling things in the field but I have a hard time counting that play as one of them.

 

It was tough, but if we're going to throw the likes of Kubel, Arcia, Colabello, etc. in the corners than Hicks needs to be able to make those kinds of tough catches. He covered a lot of ground, to his credit, but he was undone by the same thing that seems to make all those tools he has out there still result in an average (at best) centerfielder: he can't seem to read flight paths.

[LaBombo]

I really think you're underselling how difficult that play was to finish. Hicks wasn't running full speed but he was moving at a good clip and got leather on the ball.

 

Nice hustle, good try, we all feel bad that he got hurt, but it was yet another awkward play for an alleged future Gold Glover. He had no idea where he was. He reacted to hitting the wall like a man hit by a bus in his living room.

 

Aaron Hicks has yet to even resemble a major league ballplayer, at the plate or in the field. At this point the greatest distinction between his Twins career and Tsuyoshi Nishioka's is Hicks' rapidly fading cache of youth-based upside.

 

He still might turn it around, but my guess is that he won't contribute anything significant before Buxton surpasses him.

 

And the hand-wringing over how to replace a .178 hitter is a new low in Twins franchise history.

[jokin]

Sticking to the title of the thread.....I'm giving LEN3 no credit. In all the years he has covered the Twins, the only thing I've learned from his work is where good restaurants are in Ft. Myers. Anybody even mildly paying attention knew the Twins were one injury away from another centerfield mess. Now that it has happened, he is stating the obvious. Thanks goodness for Twins Daily - you get more meaningful thought and info here in a week than you do from the LEN3 in a year.

 

I take small victories where ever we can get them. Not many profiles in courage in the local media crew. This article was pretty uncharacteristicalllly openly mocking of a series of poor decisions on behalf of the Twins.

[Brandon]

I'd be ok with Pierre as a back up to Fuld. CF is a stop gap so its not like we are going to find a 5 tool player to fill in. Hicks is our best hope for that. If Fuld and Hicks can have a .320 OBP and steal 20 bases and solid defense that's enough for me from the 8th spot in the lineup for now.

 

Although I do now concede Florimon needs to sit on the bench at least. I had figured he could hit .620 - .660OPS but apparently not even close.

[Siehbiscuit]

I love Hicks' potential, but at some point the production needs to at least show flashes. Carlos Gomez drove many crazy, but he showed some WOW Factor. Hicks had about a two week stretch last year, robbing HR's and then hitting some. This year he has shown a good ability to draw walks. But that is it. The young man's L/R splits are still terrible (.241 vs LH compared to .150 vs RH). His .330 OBP is great in theory but an everyday centerfielder has to be elite in the OF or hit. Hicks can't hit a moving baseball.

 

He's up there muttering, "Please walk me, please walk me" like a 4th grader seeing pitches from a 6th grader, knwing he can't hit it.

[Linus]

The greatest condemnation in this situation is that Hicks has shown no actual production to indicate that he is ready for the majors. One of the Moneyball lessons is to place more importance on actual results and less on projection. Hicks being the regular center fielder is based completely on projection, especially after last year. He should have started in Rochester and learned how to hit. Not only was the a mistake for the big league club but a mistake for his development. The way we are headed two straight lost years for him.

[nicksaviking]

I agree that going back appears to be his biggest weakness as a defender but, again, that's a tough play and I've seen multiple-time Gold Glovers make similar "errors" in calculation while going backwards mid-jump.

 

It was a damned tough play for any outfielder. We've all seen Hicks do some pretty baffling things in the field but I have a hard time counting that play as one of them.

 

It's a tough spot. Obviously the front office can't manage the team the exact way the fans want, but it's got to be embarassing when you do something that 90% of the fans disagree with and it turns out the fans were overwhelmingly right and you were embarassingly wrong. Happens to all clubs from time to time I'm sure, but two year deals for Mike Pelfrey and sticking Jason Bartlett on the 25 man after a miserable spring certainly do stand out as awful decisions with clearly visable results.

 

I don't think cries of "What were you thinking?!?" are out of place.

[Otto von Ballpark]

their rotation at Rochester is looking really good

 

It's better than in the past, for sure, but I think you're over-selling it. Any future benefit from that rotation is almost entirely from Meyer. May is the other interesting guy although he's still quite a project.

 

Darnell looks to have Andrew Albers upside to me, which isn't bad but would be fringe MLB. Johnson we know is fringe. Diamond is worse than fringe right now.

 

And given how poor of a job they've done with the MLB rotation, they still have to count on Meyer (and May) way too much for my liking.

[Mike Sixel]

Brock, we probably won't agree on this FO. If you don't understand what a sunk cost is, you shouldn't be leading a billion dollar business. If you don't understand that RP are fungible, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team. If you think Floriman and Hicks are good MLB players, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team. If your plan for CF is to not have anyone in the majors or AAA or AA that can back up Hicks, you probably shouldn't GM of a MLB team. I won't even touch on the fact that they didn't trade Willingham, because they refused to admit they were in rebuild (ok, I did), or that they apparently are not willing to spend even 40% of revenue on the MLB roster, let alone 50, or that they won't sign Cubans, or that they appear to like quantity in FA over quality.

 

The vaunted minor league system has produced Pinto and Gibson and maybe Arcia in the last two years, with not one new guy coming up this year so far. This on a team that has lost 90+ games for three years in a row. They are one of the older teams in MLB, and are projected to be one of the worst teams again this year. That's a bad combination.

 

Signing actual FA SP looked like it might be a change in direction. But, that was, imo, a mirage. They did not go out and sign big time, elite players. They actually cut payroll as a percent of revenue (since they got $25MM more revenue this year), again. Until something changes, I don't think anything has changed.

[LaBombo]

I don't think cries of "What were you thinking?!?" are out of place.

And player/personnel decision outcomes aside, this is an organization that publicly prided itself on its disregard for modern metrics the season before it embarked on a three-year, nearly three hundred loss debacle.

 

That's just inviting scrutiny and hindsight, if not outright scorn.

[Mike Sixel]

And player/personnel decision outcomes aside, this is an organization that publicly prided itself on its disregard for modern metrics the season before it embarked on a three-year, nearly three hundred loss debacle.

 

That's just inviting scrutiny and hindsight, if not outright scorn.

 

Math is hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It's better than in the past, for sure, but I think you're over-selling it. Any future benefit from that rotation is almost entirely from Meyer. May is the other interesting guy although he's still quite a project.

 

I'm not sure what you expect from a AAA rotation. The Twins have one guy who looks to front the rotation soon, another guy who has shown enormous growth this season and could slot in as a #3 guy if he continues missing bats and minimizing walks, and then they have 2-3 guys who are fringe prospects.

 

That's a very good AAA rotation with depth.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure what you expect from a AAA rotation. The Twins have one guy who looks to front the rotation soon, another guy who has shown enormous growth this season and could slot in as a #3 guy if he continues missing bats and minimizing walks, and then they have 2-3 guys who are fringe prospects.

 

That's a very good AAA rotation with depth.

 

I agree with this.

[LaBombo]

If your plan for CF is to not have anyone in the majors or AAA or AA that can back up Hicks, you probably shouldn't GM of a MLB team.

The whole post was great, but this single sentence sums up the problem.

 

Getting a job, including Twins Assistant General Manager, doesn't mean you can do that job.

 

This fact was reflected upon at some length by Mr. Waturi in the movie Joe Vs. the Volcano...

 

http://table9mutant.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/20130121-085107-am.jpg

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, we probably won't agree on this FO. If you don't understand what a sunk cost is, you shouldn't be leading a billion dollar business.

 

This catch-phrase of the week is getting really old. I'm sure the front office understands the concept of a sunk cost. The problem is that they like to sink costs too often on players they shouldn't sign.

 

If you don't understand that RP are fungible, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team.

 

I honestly don't even know what this means. Ryan has made a career of building bullpens off the scrapheap.

 

 

If you think Floriman and Hicks are good MLB players, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team. If your plan for CF is to not have anyone in the majors or AAA or AA that can back up Hicks, you probably shouldn't GM of a MLB team.

 

Florimon, yes. It amazes me that people are so willing to throw Hicks to the curb. Yeah, he's been bad. That doesn't mean you give up on the guy after 400 PAs.

 

The vaunted minor league system has produced Pinto and Gibson and maybe Arcia in the last two years

 

Pinto, Gibson, and Arcia are a pretty good trio of players to call up in a 12 month period.

 

And they weren't even considered the elite prospects of the system.

 

with not one new guy coming up this year so far.

 

You realize it's May 2nd, right? We might see Meyer by the end of the month and we'll surely see him this season. That's four good-to-elite prospects in two seasons' time, five if you include Hicks.

 

I'm not really sure what you expect to happen. Teams don't call up 10 guys in one season. That never happens.

[Mike Sixel]

I expect changes to occur, if you are one of the worst teams in the league for 3+ years. Big changes. In leadership. In strategy.

 

I am confused that I should not expect one minor leaguer to come up at the beginning of the year. I guess I don't know why they can't find room for 1 guy before June (for more than a call up).

 

Do we know Arcia is up? There is talk of him having to be in AAA to work on his swing. Hard to count him as up right now. If you have no LF, CF, RF, 3B, SS, C, DH....and no SP, bringing up 3 guys isn't fixing much.

 

But really, the big things the FO has done (since they are only tangentally in charge of the minors) is not trade Willingham at his peak, sign KC and Pelfrey to multi year deals, and have no plan for CF or SS for the last two years.

 

Like I said, I don't think we'll agree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I expect changes to occur, if you are one of the worst teams in the league for 3+ years. Big changes. In leadership. In strategy.

 

I am confused that I should not expect one minor leaguer to come up at the beginning of the year. I guess I don't know why they can't find room for 1 guy before June (for more than a call up).

 

I'm not sure who you believe should have gotten the call. Meyer was coming back from an injury. May was inconsistent. Rosario is suspended. Sano got hurt. They gave both Gibson and Hicks a shot on Opening Day. One has done pretty well... the other, not so much. They also gave Pinto a shot out of Spring Training.

 

Who is left at that point? I'm sure we'll see more prospects as the season progresses but the Twins called up the guys who deserved a shot while the other guys who might have been ready (Sano, possibly Rosario) were sidelined for various reasons.

 

The front office didn't have many choices left. They aggressively promoted when they could but performance and/or injury forced their hand in many cases.

[Squirrel]

Brock, we probably won't agree on this FO. If you don't understand what a sunk cost is, you shouldn't be leading a billion dollar business. If you don't understand that RP are fungible, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team. If you think Floriman and Hicks are good MLB players, you probably shouldn't be GM of a MLB team. If your plan for CF is to not have anyone in the majors or AAA or AA that can back up Hicks, you probably shouldn't GM of a MLB team. I won't even touch on the fact that they didn't trade Willingham, because they refused to admit they were in rebuild (ok, I did), or that they apparently are not willing to spend even 40% of revenue on the MLB roster, let alone 50, or that they won't sign Cubans, or that they appear to like quantity in FA over quality.

 

The vaunted minor league system has produced Pinto and Gibson and maybe Arcia in the last two years, with not one new guy coming up this year so far. This on a team that has lost 90+ games for three years in a row. They are one of the older teams in MLB, and are projected to be one of the worst teams again this year. That's a bad combination.

 

Signing actual FA SP looked like it might be a change in direction. But, that was, imo, a mirage. They did not go out and sign big time, elite players. They actually cut payroll as a percent of revenue (since they got $25MM more revenue this year), again. Until something changes, I don't think anything has changed.

 

I don't disagree with this one bit. This is a good description of the state of things as they are. But it doesn't change the fact that this is our front office and that I have absolutely no control over that. Yes, it's frustrating, but it doesn't change things one bit. Neither does complaining about it or going over time and again all the woulda, shoulda, couldas. I was one who thought Ryan should've been fired after last season. He is the most responsible for the putting the players on the field that were. But, that doesn't change what is. It wasn't my choice, nothing I can do about it but live with it. While all these things make it difficult to be a fan, I still choose to be one, so I'll cling to the glimmer of things that are good. Man, that Brian Dozier ... he is a God in my book! That's one way I deal with the dismal state of affairs, clinging to what is good. Because I can't do one damn thing to change what is except maybe not buy the product. I'm not in a place to make decisions, except not buy the product. I can put my thoughts out here on what maybe could be done moving forward, and discuss those options, or disagree with those options others put forth, but still keep it moving forward. No, it doesn't change things. But it helps me to focus on other things that do nothing but demoralize me game in and game out, that are done. Just my 2 cents. But back to topic ... yeah ... what are they gonna do about CF?

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure what you expect from a AAA rotation. The Twins have one guy who looks to front the rotation soon, another guy who has shown enormous growth this season and could slot in as a #3 guy if he continues missing bats and minimizing walks, and then they have 2-3 guys who are fringe prospects.

 

That's a very good AAA rotation with depth.

 

I like it, but I think there are always going to be issues until some of these guys prove it at the MLB level. It's disconcerting that the Twins haven't gotten much of anything from the minor leaguers. You'd think you'd catch lightning in a bottle once in awhile from one of them.

 

The first wave has already arrived and the results haven't been good. No need to mention the issues with Hicks but I'm concerned with what has happened with Arcia. There seemed to be NO concerns with strikeouts in the minors, he was wiffing at a 19% rate. Now he's at 30% at the MLB level? Where did that come from? What happened in the transition? Where did Gibson's lack of control come from? Control was his best asset, why has it dropped off this much at the MLB level? The same thing happened with Hendriks also. Something's not right here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like it, but I think there are always going to be issues until some of these guys prove it at the MLB level. It's disconcerting that the Twins haven't gotten much of anything from the minor leaguers. You'd think you'd catch lightning in a bottle once in awhile from one of them.

 

The first wave has already arrived and the results haven't been good. No need to mention the issues with Hicks but I'm concerned with what has happened with Arcia. There seemed to be NO concerns with strikeouts in the minors, he was wiffing at a 19% rate. Now he's at 30% at the MLB level? Where did that come from? What happened in the transition?

 

I think the hitters have done pretty well, all considering. Arcia has been adequate, though he needs to control the zone better. Pinto has been a revelation. Dozier and Plouffe look like legit hitters.

 

The one disaster is Hicks. I'd say that's a pretty good percentage of failure.

 

Where did Gibson's lack of control come from? Control was his best asset, why has it dropped off this much at the MLB level? The same thing happened with Hendriks also. Something's not right here.

 

On the other hand, the pitching has not performed as expected. I find it impossible to defend Rick Anderson at this point. Whatever he's doing, it's simply not working.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure who you believe should have gotten the call. Meyer was coming back from an injury. May was inconsistent. Rosario is suspended. Sano got hurt. They gave both Gibson and Hicks a shot on Opening Day. One has done pretty well... the other, not so much. They also gave Pinto a shot out of Spring Training.

 

Who is left at that point? I'm sure we'll see more prospects as the season progresses but the Twins called up the guys who deserved a shot while the other guys who might have been ready (Sano, possibly Rosario) were sidelined for various reasons.

 

The front office didn't have many choices left. They aggressively promoted when they could but performance and/or injury forced their hand in many cases.

 

that's my point, the minor league system is not producing enough guys fast enough. I get that it takes time for the minors produce....and I get the Sano injury. But, my point is, if the minors can't produce 1 starter at the beginning of the year (3 years into being awful), then maybe the minor league system isn't that good.

 

I hope to be proven wrong, I really do.

[LaBombo]

You realize it's May 2nd, right? We might see Meyer by the end of the month and we'll surely see him this season. That's four good-to-elite prospects in two seasons' time, five if you include Hicks.

There is nothing remotely sustainable about Gibson's success, based on the peripherals we've seen. The fact that there is even a debate about whether Arcia should rejoin the team or return to AAA when healthy pretty much denies him elite status. Pinto hits well and should be the everyday catcher, but the Twins' concerns about his defense mean they don't consider him elite.

 

And the only thing Meyer and Hicks currently have in common is that they have contracts to play baseball in the Twins organization.

 

Not calling for tar and feathers, but like you mentioned with regard to Rick Anderson, the organization's comfort level with the status quo doesn't seem to jibe with what we're seeing on the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

that's my point, the minor league system is not producing enough guys fast enough. I get that it takes time for the minors produce....and I get the Sano injury. But, my point is, if the minors can't produce 1 starter at the beginning of the year (3 years into being awful), then maybe the minor league system isn't that good.

 

I hope to be proven wrong, I really do.

 

Or maybe it just takes time to rebuild a minor league system.

 

Look at the Astros. Look at the Pirates. Look at Kansas City. It didn't take any of those teams three years to rebuild a system, it took them all 6+ years.

 

People forget the glacial pace at which baseball rebuilds happen. It takes a long time to build something in this sport and prospects don't arrive all at once, they arrive in batches over a 3-4 year period.

[Brock Beauchamp]

There is nothing remotely sustainable about Gibson's success, based on the peripherals we've seen. The fact that there is even a debate about whether Arcia should rejoin the team or return to AAA when healthy pretty much denies him elite status. Pinto hits well and should be the everyday catcher, but the Twins' concerns about his defense mean they don't consider him elite.

 

And the only thing Meyer and Hicks currently have in common is that they have contracts to play baseball in the Twins organization.

 

Whether Arcia rejoins the team has zero bearing on whether he's an elite prospect. He mashed at AA as a 21 year old player. He did the same at AAA as a 22 year old.

 

It amazes me how little patience people show with prospects. Haven't we been through this a dozen times already? Was Morneau no longer an elite prospect because he OPSed at .650 in his rookie season? What about Cuddyer? What about Kubel? What about Hunter? What about Santana?

 

Guys scuffle when they come up to the big leagues. They get sent back down. They come up again and maybe stick. Maybe they get sent down again.

 

That doesn't mean they're suddenly a bad player.

[Mike Sixel]

Or maybe it just takes time to rebuild a minor league system.

 

Look at the Astros. Look at the Pirates. Look at Kansas City. It didn't take any of those teams three years to rebuild a system, it took them all 6+ years.

 

People forget the glacial pace at which baseball rebuilds happen. It takes a long time to build something in this sport and prospects don't arrive all at once, they arrive in batches over a 3-4 year period.

 

 

I actually do understand this. doesn't decrease my disdain for what it is producing.

[Mike Sixel]

Whether Arcia rejoins the team has zero bearing on whether he's an elite prospect. He mashed at AA as a 21 year old player. He did the same at AAA as a 22 year old.

 

It amazes me how little patience people show with prospects. Haven't we been through this a dozen times already? Was Morneau no longer an elite prospect because he OPSed at .650 in his rookie season? What about Cuddyer? What about Kubel? What about Hunter? What about Santana?

 

Guys scuffle when they come up to the big leagues. They get sent back down. They come up again and maybe stick. Maybe they get sent down again.

 

That doesn't mean they're suddenly a bad player.

 

didn't say he was a bad player. Said you couldn't give them credit for him coming up, if he's not up here. I think he's legit. But you can't say the minors sent him to the majors and he fixed a position at this point, that was our point.