Giving credit to LEN3 for calling Twins to account on CF situation

[cmathewson]

Just to change the mood for a second, I think the 3rd base situation was worse than centerfield. Plouffe, or Luckiest Man in the World as I call him still IMO is not a major league 3rd baseman. As this season continues on, some will come to my side, you watch. And we've got no one that's has a chance at being a major league 3rd baseman that can step in.

 

Plouffe is currently second in baseball in OPS among third basemen. I doubt that's all luck. His new oppo approach lends itself to better results, including his league leading 15 doubles. But let's not delve into scouting. Let's stick with your claim about luck. Luck is a funny thing. It could be that he was extremely unlucky the last two years. Unless you logged his at bats to see how many hard-hit balls found gloves, you wouldn't know. Thing is, Fangraphs does that for us.

 

We measure luck for hitters by comparing LD%, FB%, GB% and BABIP. Last year, Plouffe had a high LD% of 24.7%; his GB% was 38.6; his FB% was 36.7. Yet his BABIP was average at .301. This suggests that he was unlucky, if anything. In 2012, his LD% was lower at 18.5%, his GB% was normal at 37.9%; his FB% was higher at 43.6% (reflecting his power surge), but his BABIP was a lowly .244. In 2012, his best year, he was extremely unlucky.

 

This year, his luck seems to have normalized (27/37/34/.373), which was only a matter of time, if you believe in regression analysis. He is due for a regression from that lofty peak to about a BABIP of .333 or so, given his high LD%. But small samples make bad projections. Even after he regresses as predicted, off the top of my head, he's still a 4 WAR player projecting that regressed production out for the year.

[TheLeviathan]

Folly might be strong, but Hicks made that play difficult. Was it a tough catch? Sure. Was it "I'm going to try and be spiderman and throw myself at the wall" tough?

 

God no. And it only looked that tough because, once again, Hicks is unable to read the flight path of fly balls without staring at it the whole way. Good outfielders don't do that, you often see them take their eye off and run to a spot (I seem to recall Hunter talking about doing exactly that back in the day) and then pick it up when they get closer to where it's going to land.

 

I'm sorry the kid got hurt, but he got hurt because he's not all that good out there and he keeps showing that over and over again.

 

So yeah, again another example today of this. He turns his back (and there was a stiff breeze, no doubt) and he's completely turned around on a ball again.

 

The kid needs to be in AAA. He's doing some things well and should be encouraged by that, but his game isn't getting refined in the big leagues right now.

[jokin]

So yeah, again another example today of this. He turns his back (and there was a stiff breeze, no doubt) and he's completely turned around on a ball again.

 

The kid needs to be in AAA. He's doing some things well and should be encouraged by that, but his game isn't getting refined in the big leagues right now.

 

Yup. The broadcast crew tried their best to excuse the busted play on the wind, but it was much more than an issue of the stiff breeze, it was pretty clear that Hicks just doesn't have the instincts right now that a CF needs, particularly on balls hit deep.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

The radio call said he did a good job to get back on the ball, but Dan Gladden specifically said that "you have to know how the wind plays at Target Field" which both acknowledged the difficulty of the play but didn't excuse Hicks from misjudging it.

 

He notes that Hicks got back to the point where the ball would have gone without the breeze, but by the time Hicks looked up again, the ball was three plus feet over from that spot.

 

Outfield play has come up a lot this year (rightfully so) and it's something that these players all have to learn on the fly. Hicks has now had about one full season worth of innings at Target Field, so plays like this one are ones he should be more able to judge than a visiting player (or any Twins infielder that might be serving time in the outfield that day).

[Beezer07]

Re: Hicks has "to know how the wind plays at Target Field." This is another reason that, in my opinion, Hicks needs to stay up and play through the struggles. Give him until May 1 of next year to get his act together, both on offense and defense. That'll give him just over 1 year's worth of PAs and appearances in CF. If he can't show progress in that time, well...