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How will these Twins finish?


cHawk

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Minnesota Twins 2022 MLB season preview, odds, and predictions

Our Minnesota Twins stand at 57-51 with 54 games remaining in the 2022 MLB season. Thus far, they've had an up & down season. They started out hot, reaching a record of 27-16 after the first 43 games of the season. At that time, pitching appeared to be the strength of the team. Since then, however, pitching has clearly made itself known as the weakness of the team. The numbers illustrate that.

Team Pitching ERA: 4.02 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
Team Pitching WHIP: 1.24 (T-12th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
Team Pitching BA Against: .237 (13th in MLB, 7th in the AL)
Team Pitching ERA-: 103 (T-20th in MLB, 10th in the AL)
Team Pitching HR/9 Against: 1.24 (26th in MLB, 14th in the AL)
Team Pitching WPA: -0.06 (19th in MLB, 10th in the AL)

Those numbers, especially the Team Pitching HR/9 Against number, are less than stellar. The Twins knew they needed to address their pitching staff at the trade deadline, and they did just that. They acquired closer Jorge Lopez from Baltimore, set-up man Michael Fulmer from Detroit, & starter Tyler Mahle from Cincinatti. So far, these additions have shown mixed results. Tyler Mahle was good on Friday night against Toronto through 5 innings, but the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Jorge Lopez blew a save in aforementioned game. Michael Fulmer, while so far not allowing any runs in a Twins uniform, has a concerning 1.5 WHIP in that stretch.

The Twins have also dealt with several injuries this season. Left-fielder Alex Kirilloff will be missing the remainder of the season. Byron Buxton has been on & off the bench throughout the year, as always. Royce Lewis tore his ACL for the second year in a row (ugh).

The X-factors for the Twins in the next 54 games, IMO, are as follows:

1.  The starting pitching. Currently, the Twins have Mahle, Gray, & Ryan in the rotation. After that there are question marks such as Dylan Bundy & Chris Archer.
2. The bullpen. Jorge Lopez & Michael Fulmer need to be big contributors along with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, & Caleb Thielbar in order to consistently close out wins.
3. Byron Buxton & Carlos Correa. In order for this offense to get going, somebody needs to step up. The bats of both Buxton & Correa have been cold as of late.

Now I will predict the rest of the Twins' schedule. I will organize their schedule by opponents & number of games against each opponent. Then, I will predict a record against each opponent.

Twins' Remaining Opponents:
 · Chicago White Sox: 5-4 in 9 games
 · Cleveland Guardians: 5-3 in 8 games
 · Detroit Tigers: 2-1 in 3 games
 · Kansas City Royals: 6-3 in 9 games
 · Boston Red Sox: 2-1 in 3 games
 · New York Yankees: 1-3 in 4 games
 · Houston Astros: 1-2 in 3 games
 · Los Angeles Angels: 4-2 in 6 games
 · Texas Rangers: 3-1 in 4 games
 · Los Angeles Dodgers: 0-2 in 2 games
 · San Francisco Giants: 2-1 in 3 games

Total Record over the Final 54 games: 31-23
Twins End-of-Season record: 88-74

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I think the head to head with Cleveland and Chicago decides the division. Twins have 17 games left with those two. If they can beat them, they will win the division. If not, they finish 3rd and out of the playoffs.

While Twins have been woefully inconsistent, thankfully so have the Guards and Sox. No one really wants to step up and take charge. but I think that will be changing. I'm not real confident the Twins have the horses to compete, but we'll see.

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Interesting head to head predictions. I think they split with the Dodgers since the Dodgers will be running out a AAA starter on Wednesday. I'd like to think they will go 4-2 against the Angels instead of the predicted 3-3. I think your 6-3 against KC may be optimistic but I'll go with that and I'll go with either 3-0 against the Tigers, 6-3 against the Pale Hose, or 2-2 against the Yankees. Bottom line: 90-72. Win the Central, open up against Tampa Bay, win that series 2-1, and then lose to Houston in 6 games. 

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2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I'd like to think they will go 4-2 against the Angels instead of the predicted 3-3.

Oops…I meant 4-2. I apologize. I fixed it.

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I think the Twins will continue to play like they have been and finish at or slightly above .500.  The question is will that be enough.  The division is awful and will likely be up for grabs until the end.

 

The new playoff format might be interesting this season though.  As things are right now, the lowest seed in the AL (Rays) would play the 3rd seed (Guardians/Twins) while having a better record than them.  If they win that game, they would face the 2nd seed.

 

On the other hand, the first wild card team or 4th seed (Blue Jays) would face the 5th seed (Mariners) that currently has 3 more wins than the 3rd seed then play the 1st seed if they move on.


It seems like the 6th seed will have an easier path than the 4th seed because of the weak Central division.

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On 8/9/2022 at 6:16 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Interesting head to head predictions. I think they split with the Dodgers since the Dodgers will be running out a AAA starter on Wednesday. I'd like to think they will go 4-2 against the Angels instead of the predicted 3-3. I think your 6-3 against KC may be optimistic but I'll go with that and I'll go with either 3-0 against the Tigers, 6-3 against the Pale Hose, or 2-2 against the Yankees. Bottom line: 90-72. Win the Central, open up against Tampa Bay, win that series 2-1, and then lose to Houston in 6 games. 

That would be awesome. 

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I am not optimistic. Our Twins played above their heads early & have rounded into form as a middling .500 ballclub. 

Seeing lineups with the bottom third being Cave/Leon/Beckham does not inspire confidence, especially with Miranda / Kiriloff / Sano & a cast of dozens on the IL. Buxton's injury hasn't helped. The offense is no longer the impressive strength it appeared to be in spring training. 

I hope I'm wrong, but their play the past couple of months is that of a mediocre baseball team. I don't see them breaking out of that mold with this set of personnel. 

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I had the team pegged before the season as a little below .500 (about on a par with last year until they acquired Correa), and that's approximately the pace they've been on for a while now.  They over-performed for a while but at this point they'll do well to finish above .500.  Still hoping for the best, and a playoff appearance would be great.

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In 3rd place. Team got off to a hot start but has settled into mediocrity. Both June and July were losing months and August has not changed that yet. Too bad a different picture couldn't have been used for this article since Sano is gone, Larnach is IL for probably the rest of the season and Buxton should be IL as well.. The only one in the picture doing anything anymore is Arraez. The picture should have Gordon, Miranda and the bat boy with Arraez.

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9 hours ago, Bamboo Bat said:

I am not optimistic. Our Twins played above their heads early & have rounded into form as a middling .500 ballclub. 

Seeing lineups with the bottom third being Cave/Leon/Beckham does not inspire confidence, especially with Miranda / Kiriloff / Sano & a cast of dozens on the IL. Buxton's injury hasn't helped. The offense is no longer the impressive strength it appeared to be in spring training. 

I hope I'm wrong, but their play the past couple of months is that of a mediocre baseball team. I don't see them breaking out of that mold with this set of personnel. 

I fully concur with your assessment. 

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I do not believe the over-performing shtick, they were performing at expected level, yet, they for the whole season, were , either stomping on opponents of getting stomped on more often than not.

There has to be a organization reason for the instability of their play.

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The same team that just went 30-35 in their last 65 games is going to go 31-23 the final third of the season?  Including 5-3 against Cleveland, whose pitching staff is, overall, better than ours?  (as of right now we lost the 2 to the Dodgers, so we have to go 31-21 the rest of the way).  I love the thought, but am lost as to the underlying thought process that makes one believe it will turn around so quickly and so completely.  

Personally, I think it is a crap shoot, and I have no clue who is going to sneak this one out.  If I had to bet, it would be Cleveland based on their pitching, but we could make a run at it just as much as Chicago could, and maybe take Cleveland like you predict.  Head to head is the key, as it should be, and we have to step up.  I hope you are right on.  

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So they lost both games to the Dodgers...but realistically I didn't expect to win either of them. Dodgers are playing .700 ball...a totally unrealistic clip for mid August. I doubt they will win 2 against the Yankees. Evil Empire is struggling now, but they never struggle against the Twins!

Out last go-round with both Sox and Guards did not go well at all. Can that change? It must if Twins are to have any chance.

Want to be optimistic..but have to throw in a dash of realistic. It will be an uphill battle for Twins to win the division now.

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79-83 third place.  Probably not bad enough to necessitate an overhaul of the coaching staff, but one can dream.  At least all the guys they picked up at the deadline, save for Fulmer, are under contract through next year.

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