Rumor: Twins to spend over their Int. bonus limit in 2015-16?

[nytwinsfan]

This is completely a rumor, so huge grain of salt, but Kiley McDaniel, who is a legit source, posted it based on "surveying about a dozen international sources," so I thought it would be worth mentioning it here.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-international-bonus-pools-dont-matter/

 

Apparently the Twins are one of a group of 11 teams known, suspected, or rumored to be considering going over their international bonus allotment in the July 2015-16 period. Could this mean they are in on Yoan Moncada (assuming he is not eligible before July 2)? Here is more on Moncada:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yoan-moncada-game-theory

 

If Terry Ryan thinks Sano is destined for 1st base or DH, and also thinks the next 3-8 years is the Twins' best window, then spending 80-100 million on a likely top-10 Third Base prospect with all-star upside would make some sense. Yes, they would probably have to overpay to get him, but frankly I'd rather see that kind of money for that kind of upside, rather than signing more 32-year-old mid-rotation starters or 39 year-old outfielders.

 

Or more likely (unfortunately) it just means Ryan has seen what the Yankees, Angels, and Red Sox have done and realized the Twins can get more young talent by unlimited spending once every three years than by spending a drastically limited amount every year.

 

Or it could just be a false rumor.

[Mike Sixel]

There are probably 2 more years where the current system exists. Either you spend over the limit this coming year, or the next year......the problem with waiting until the next year is that there will be probably be an outline of a new agreement, and the teams that over spent the last two years will push to punish those that do so in the last year (since there is no penalty to them otherwise)......the problem with not waiting is that there will be a small pool of teams that have a lot of room the last year (assuming teams go over the limit this year), so your competition for signings will be less the last year (probably).

 

Me? I'd blow through the roof, since you have no idea what he rules will be, or which players will be where when......but then, they had that option the last few years, and have not taken it.

 

The other advantage of blowing through the roof is that you can trade your pool money that you can't use anyway......

[nicksaviking]

Wish they would have joined the party a year or two earlier but I guess better late than never.  Go crazy on these Hispanic players.  Take advantage of the loophole before it closes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I'd blow it all on Moncada....

[nytwinsfan]

Personally, I'd blow it all on Moncada....

I assume you know this, and were just using a figure of speech, but once a team goes past the bonus limit, which they would certainly have to do to get Moncada, there is no "all" left to "blow", so to speak, because there is no remaining limit (other than Carl Pohlad's checkbook). So a team could spend what it takes to get Moncada, and then they could try to get some other good young prospects, because they won't be spending anything more for the next 2 years.

[TRex]

(other than Carl Pohlad's checkbook)

... so you can take it with you?

[SarasotaBill]

Moncada is not possible for the Twins because of baseball bonus and tax rules.

 

If the Twins offered $25 million then the tax will cost another $25 million.

 

Since it has to be paid in a bonus, the Twins would have to pay a normal salary to him every year.

 

So for six years in the majors, it would cost another $20 million at least if he performs well.

 

So the upside is $70 million for six years and downside is $50 million for nothing.

 

The large cities will bid him up well over $25 million. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I assume you know this, and were just using a figure of speech, but once a team goes past the bonus limit, which they would certainly have to do to get Moncada, there is no "all" left to "blow", so to speak, because there is no remaining limit (other than Carl Pohlad's checkbook). So a team could spend what it takes to get Moncada, and then they could try to get some other good young prospects, because they won't be spending anything more for the next 2 years.

Yes, I know that. The reference was more towards Mr. Pohlad's checkbook. If that meant only signing Moncada and no one else, I'd do it.

[nytwinsfan]

I understand the tax of 100% part, yes, but what is the "normal" salary? You mean normal first 3-year salaries plus 3 years of arbitration eligibility?

My post assumed a $80-100 million dollar price tag (including the tax). For six years of team control that is a lot, true, but not unreasonable, given his upside and midpoint value. We are talking about a fast, great hitting, good defensive 3rd basemen. He could easily be worth that. Granted, I'm not expecting Ryan to do that, I'm just saying it wouldn't be crazy, and I would be very excited about it.

 

Moncada is not possible for the Twins because of baseball bonus and tax rules.

 

If the Twins offered $25 million then the tax will cost another $25 million.

 

Since it has to be paid in a bonus, the Twins would have to pay a normal salary to him every year.

 

So for six years in the majors, it would cost another $20 million at least if he performs well.

 

So the upside is $70 million for six years and downside is $50 million for nothing.

 

The large cities will bid him up well over $25 million. 

[zenser]

What is the penalty for going over? Didn't the Cubs, Rangers, and Yankees go way over in the past couple years?

[Mike Sixel]

What is the penalty for going over? Didn't the Cubs, Rangers, and Yankees go way over in the past couple years?

 

Can't sign players over a certain amount now.....but, they signed A TON last year, so it mostly doesn't really matter. These are, after all, 16 year olds, that are largely all projection.

[zenser]

Can't sign players over a certain amount now.....but, they signed A TON last year, so it mostly doesn't really matter. These are, after all, 16 year olds, that are largely all projection.

Thanks. I was thinking the penalty wasn't very severe. Its too bad it isn't more severe because that approach doesn't seem too bad. Granted, not all will make it but if one or two make it, it is worth the slap on the wrist.

[SarasotaBill]

I understand the tax of 100% part, yes, but what is the "normal" salary? You mean normal first 3-year salaries plus 3 years of arbitration eligibility?

My post assumed a $80-100 million dollar price tag (including the tax). For six years of team control that is a lot, true, but not unreasonable, given his upside and midpoint value. We are talking about a fast, great hitting, good defensive 3rd basemen. He could easily be worth that. Granted, I'm not expecting Ryan to do that, I'm just saying it wouldn't be crazy, and I would be very excited about it.

Correct - so add another $20 million to the total.

 

Using your guess, $120 million for six years. Then he's a free agent.

 

He would need to be Trout to be a good (not great) deal.

 

The club never gets any years of low pay if you include the bonus and tax.

[nytwinsfan]

So let's say $50 million to him, $50 million tax, and $20 million salary, which is the very upper range. He would not need to be Trout to make that a good deal. Right now about 1 WAR costs about $6 million. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cost-of-a-win-in-the-2014-off-season/  So he would need to earn 20 WAR over 6 years to make that worth while. 20 WAR over 6 years is a lot (3 1/3 per year), but Trout did it in 2 years, so not remotely Trout level. And that is not counting likely inflation in salaries, so that 1 WAR will probably be worth 7 or 8 million in a few years, which could make the deal even better. So yeah, it is a risk, and one I doubt Ryan will do, but one I'd love to see them take.

 

Correct - so add another $20 million to the total.

 

Using your guess, $120 million for six years. Then he's a free agent.

 

He would need to be Trout to be a good (not great) deal.

 

The club never gets any years of low pay if you include the bonus and tax.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks. I was thinking the penalty wasn't very severe. Its too bad it isn't more severe because that approach doesn't seem too bad. Granted, not all will make it but if one or two make it, it is worth the slap on the wrist.

 

Oh, and a tax....but again, that's kind of factored in.....

[cmb0252]

Kiley reported well before anyone else last year that the Yankees were going to spend $15-20M on international talent so this is definitely worth following. He has pretty good sources.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, Kiley is quite good.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

It would be interesting to see the Twins do this -- they've generally been very loathe to deviate from even unofficial slots and caps.

 

Might not be a big advantage anymore, now that other teams are keen to the idea too.  But better late than never if you can land some potential impact talent.

[Dman]

Hate to be a killjoy but when have the Twins ever acquired an obvious talented player that multiple teams wanted? This bidding war is for the big players.  The high revenue teams.  With Plus, plus speed and a real good hit tool you might be talking Buxton\Trout prospect status so this guy is going to cost some significant ching.  Twins aren't in that league so no need to worry about it.

 

I am probably the only homer that hopes the Twins don't go over the limit as I like to think they wear a white hat.  Given the state of the market and change of strategy there might be no other option but it is a bit depressing to see teams break\ruin the rule that they created to create fairer competition for assets.  Thanks Theo.

[USAFChief]

Hate to be a killjoy but when have the Twins ever acquired an obvious talented player that multiple teams wanted? This bidding war is for the big players.  The high revenue teams.  With Plus, plus speed and a real good hit tool you might be talking Buxton\Trout prospect status so this guy is going to cost some significant ching.  Twins aren't in that league so need to worry about it.

 

I am probably the only homer that hopes the Twins don't go over the limit as I like to think they wear a white hat.  Given the state of the market and change of strategy there might be no other option but it is a bit depressing to see teams break\ruin the rule that they created to create fairer competition for assets.  Thanks Theo.

"Nice guys finish last.*" -L Durocher

 

*not the actual quote

[diehardtwinsfan]

The penalty is pretty benign.  They cannot sign anyone next season for more than 250k (or something like that), and of course they pay a large tax.  I think Moncada is the type of talent that makes it worth doing something like this, but if the Yankees, RedSox, and Cubs are bidding, then yeah I don't see us winning that war.

 

That said, one of the big things with the Moncada free agency status is whether or not he is available to sign this year or next as the teams that went over this season won't be allowed to sign him come July.  I believe his agent was working hard to get that taken care of sooner than later so this could happen, but he has some hurdles to clear to make it work, not all of which are in Moncada's direct control. 

[nytwinsfan]

The penalty is pretty benign.  They cannot sign anyone next season for more than 250k (or something like that), and of course they pay a large tax.  I think Moncada is the type of talent that makes it worth doing something like this, but if the Yankees, RedSox, and Cubs are bidding, then yeah I don't see us winning that war.

 

That said, one of the big things with the Moncada free agency status is whether or not he is available to sign this year or next as the teams that went over this season won't be allowed to sign him come July.  I believe his agent was working hard to get that taken care of sooner than later so this could happen, but he has some hurdles to clear to make it work, not all of which are in Moncada's direct control. 

I think the penalty is two years starting this year and going forward. Still relatively benign though.

[Mike Sixel]

The penalty is pretty benign.  They cannot sign anyone next season for more than 250k (or something like that), and of course they pay a large tax.  I think Moncada is the type of talent that makes it worth doing something like this, but if the Yankees, RedSox, and Cubs are bidding, then yeah I don't see us winning that war.

 

That said, one of the big things with the Moncada free agency status is whether or not he is available to sign this year or next as the teams that went over this season won't be allowed to sign him come July.  I believe his agent was working hard to get that taken care of sooner than later so this could happen, but he has some hurdles to clear to make it work, not all of which are in Moncada's direct control. 

 

Yankees, Cubs, and any other team that went over budget this year would need to sign him in the next 6 months, or they won't be able to

 

but, yes, I share everyone's skepticism that the Twins would win a bidding war. 

[ashbury]

"Nice guys finish last." -L Durocher*

 

*someone said it this way for the first time, don't know who, it just wasn't Leo

ftfy

 

_{^{/ as with most ftfy's, what you said was perfectly fine of course, and I'm just messin'.  "... Nice guys.  Last place."  If I recall correctly.}}

[kab21]

The problem is that Moncada will likely be eligible before the next signing period so if they went all in on him (against the Cubs, yankees and Red Sox (I think)) they would be shut out of the next signing period but didn't really reap the rewards of signing multiple big name youngsters like they did.

 

Moncada is a pipe dream imo.  I just don't see them spending 100M (ballpark) on a prospect.   I can see them trying to sign multiple high profile prospects and spending in the 10M prospect on many prospects.

 

The MLB really screwed this part of the CBA up last time.  It should have been immediately obvious that teams would just completely blow through the cap to get 3-5 top prospects and lose out on their allotted one top prospect the following season.  Of course they screwed it so bad that they will likely get exactly what they wanted the originally (draft) next time.

[twinsfanstreif]

Hate to be a killjoy but when have the Twins ever acquired an obvious talented player that multiple teams wanted? This bidding war is for the big players.  The high revenue teams.  With Plus, plus speed and a real good hit tool you might be talking Buxton\Trout prospect status so this guy is going to cost some significant ching.  Twins aren't in that league so no need to worry about it.

 

I am probably the only homer that hopes the Twins don't go over the limit as I like to think they wear a white hat.  Given the state of the market and change of strategy there might be no other option but it is a bit depressing to see teams break\ruin the rule that they created to create fairer competition for assets.  Thanks Theo.

We outbid everyone on Sano and at the time it was a hefty price for an international signing as the international market was still growing and little was known about these kids. I get that 3 million is much different than 100 million but it's worth noting

[old nurse]

Maybe they are going all in on  Yoan Lopez. That could be more to their risk aversion side.

[diehardtwinsfan]

The MLB really screwed this part of the CBA up last time.  It should have been immediately obvious that teams would just completely blow through the cap to get 3-5 top prospects and lose out on their allotted one top prospect the following season.  Of course they screwed it so bad that they will likely get exactly what they wanted the originally (draft) next time.

I'll say what I've said several times. This wasn't an accident.

[DocBauer]

What oh what would the Twins do with a PAIR of elite caliber 3B prospects?

 

Oh yeah...move one to 1B or a corner OF spot and reap the rewards.

 

However, I still have a hard time spending that kind of money on an unknown quality. Just when you think salaries in baseball couldn't get any more out of control, along comes this year.

 

Also, after reading all the financial parameters and penalties listed above...

 

...."I'm so confused!"--Vinnie Barbarino

[Thrylos]

The sarcastic in me thinks even if this FO regime "goes through the roof" for international players, they will keep them in the minors for 6-7 years and block them with aging free agents of diminishing skills both in the majors and AAA.  Because this is what they do.  So, unless they change mindset, about playing young players and not signing mediocre old players, they should not go all out for international free agents.