Rumor: Twins to spend over their Int. bonus limit in 2015-16?

[maxisagod]

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How many foreign players who entered the league with Arcia in 2013 would you trade for him even-up? Not many. And how many of Badler's Top 10 international prospects from 2010 are ranked now as Top 100 prospects? Not many. BTW, did Badler have Arcia ranked at all? How about Polanco?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/international-affairs/2009/268475.html

 

Badler to his credit was one of the only guys doing this stuff in 2009, the SI list looks exactly like his (he probably wrote it), I couldn't find anything from MLB.com their site is hard to dig through.  Long and short of it is, Badler doesn't see many of these guys, the list are compiled based off buzz and bonus projections.  So Arica was a low bonus guy, so he wouldn't have been listed, and there is not much buzz coming from Europe in general; so Kepler was a " who? He got how much? Best prospect in Europe?... oh that make sense" guy. We remember his signing not just because of his big bonus, but because of his interesting back story.  

 

Polanco was listed 23rd in 2009 based on a $ 700,000 rumored bonus from the Twins. 

 

You point is valid, just a little off base. Badler makes lists based off bonuses, but bonuses don't tell you who becomes the top prospects or the MLB players.  Teams tend to have more data on Cuban, Korean, and Japanese players then DR 15 year olds based on international competitions. So less risk and Cuban player scouting can't be directly compared to the rest of Latin America scouting. 

 

I agree with you, that the Twins have had success in International/ Puerto Rico scouting based on a combination of a few key high bonus and deep scouting. But can the Twins be competitive in the Cuban market, when the players are more well known, and money seems to be the key difference not scouting? That I don't know.   

[Major League Ready]

What if the Twins are confident Sano will stick at 3rd.  Looking at the history of the top international signings of all-time, most flamed out.  Do you take the chance and make an enormous investment on a guy that you are going to have to find a position?  If he flames out you have a seriously detriment in your ability to go get an Ace or that final piece when this core is ready to contend.  The money could also be used for a Longoria type deal for Buxton or Sano.  You better be really confident in this 19 y/o which is not standard thinking here on TD so why is anyone sure this is the right thing to do?

[kab21]

Thanks Jeremy.  I guess I can't imagine the Twins competing with New York, LA, SF and the like unless they are pretty sure Sano cannot stay at 3rd Base. If you are going to spend that kind of money, wouldn't you want to make sure you have a real positional need that Moncada can fill? I know Moncada could also be a 2nd baseman or SS, but the Twins seem to have a lot of options for those positions going forward. Obviously, Moncada is so good a prospect that the Twins might make an offer, even without a positional need, but you would think if the Twins were not already overmatched by the money available to big market teams, the fact that some of them have glaring holes at 3rd base or 2nd base (e.g., the Angels, Yankees, or the Giants) would make them even more likely to spend big on Moncada, relative to the Twins. Would love to be proven wrong though.  After all, I didn't think that Hughes extension was going to happen either.  And even if the Twins just spend $25 million ($40 m with taxes) on 12 different high-upside international teenagers in 2015-16, that would be awesome too.

 

When you are bad you don't worry about positional need.  You worry about adding talent at any position and if you end up in a position with too many good players at one position then perhaps you are on the way to a good team.

 

Additionally anyone that is ragging on the Twins for putting together an awful defense but still wants Sano at 3B needs to smack themselves on the back of the head.

 

I continue to hold out hope that the Twins will go big on Moncada.  There are almost no comparables to him since he's much older than the int'l FA's but younger than Cespedes, Puig and Abreu although Puig was 22ish as a rookie.  He's not really comparable to a HS'er although it would be interesting to see how he would stack up with the top HS draftees from the 2000's (JUp, Bryce, Mauer, Delmon, Machado, Buxton) as well as a few of the top int'l signees like Sano.  I have a feeling that he wouldn't be last.  The closest comparable is Soler and he is a better prospect than Sano imo (nothing against Sano) since he was about the same age and from Cuba.

[nytwinsfan]

When you are bad you don't worry about positional need.  You worry about adding talent at any position and if you end up in a position with too many good players at one position then perhaps you are on the way to a good team.

 

Additionally anyone that is ragging on the Twins for putting together an awful defense but still wants Sano at 3B needs to smack themselves on the back of the head.

 

I continue to hold out hope that the Twins will go big on Moncada.  There are almost no comparables to him since he's much older than the int'l FA's but younger than Cespedes, Puig and Abreu although Puig was 22ish as a rookie.  He's not really comparable to a HS'er although it would be interesting to see how he would stack up with the top HS draftees from the 2000's (JUp, Bryce, Mauer, Delmon, Machado, Buxton) as well as a few of the top int'l signees like Sano.  I have a feeling that he wouldn't be last.  The closest comparable is Soler and he is a better prospect than Sano imo (nothing against Sano) since he was about the same age and from Cuba.

You have to consider opportunity cost.  And signing a talent with a position which you have no or few options obviously has a lower opportunity cost than a position (right now 3rd base, SS, 2nd base for the Twins) where you have good, promising options. Another way of thinking about this is that it would mean the Twins would need to move Sano's position, or trade Dozier/Polanco. That is a cost because Sano has less value at 1st and you may not be able to get full return for Dozier or Polanco, when you want to move them.  You can say "when you are bad you don't worry about" that, but that is just not true or realistic. Terry Ryan has to think on the margin. And on the margin, Moncada is worth at least slightly more to a team like the Yankees, Angels, or Giants that have giant gaping holes in their infield.  Obviously if the Twins think the price is worth it (i.e, Moncada is clearly and significantly being undervalued by other teams), they should sign Moncada. But that is the case for any player. That's almost a tautology. I'm just pointing out that his positional value is slightly higher for other teams. It is not necessarily determinative, and I would LOVE if they signed Moncada, but it is something that matters and that should be considered, on the margin.

 

As for Sano, we don't know how good his defense will be at 3rd yet. I agree there is some non-negligible chance he will need to move to 1st, and if the Twins are pretty sure that is the case, then definitely all the more reason to go after Moncada. But you and I don't know whether that is the case.

[kab21]

The opportunity cost is that the Twins won't be able to sign another Ervin Santana or Ricky Nolasco type.  I can live with that. 

 

I think everybody knows that Sano's defense is not good.  We are hoping that Sano's defense is passable at 3B.

 

Signing a 3rd top 10 prospect to a stacked and deep system is something that puts the Twins in an even better spot in 3 years.  I refuse to be concerned that 2 prospects might end up at the same position.  The Cubs didn't even pause when they traded their top trade chip for another SS/3B despite having Castro, Baez, Bryant and Alcantara.  When you are bad keep stockpiling talent regardless of where they play.

[twinsfan34]

Unless Sano is hitting .280 with 40 HR at the MLB level, the position is open. You don't hold 3B for a guy who hasn't played a single MLB at-bat. That's ludicrous. You get talent and you let the talent force your hand. If you got two guys who can hit 40 HR who want to play the same position, welp, trade the other 40 HR guy for 5 top 100 prospects and 2 front end starting pitchers and the owner's daughter. Value is value. And a player doesn't own the position until he owns the position, Buxton included. Sano is less than half a season into AA. By all means, sign Moncada if at all possible.