Worley and Liriano ... A Fangraphs case study for why change is needed in Minnesota

[jokin]

There has been a lot of recent debate on Twins Daily about defense, and how it might help out the Twins SPs in limiting run production.  While the past debates have centered on the Twins SPs annual finish at the bottom in K-rates and somehow ponying up for an Ace...  now fingers have justifiably been pointed at the well-documented substandard play in the OF..... perhaps there's also a case to made for spending more wisely on items such as: a new coaching philosophy- but still maintaining the overall P2C, some SPs in need of a change in scenery and approach,.... and upgrading the IF defensively, as well?   

 

Tony Blengino published an article in Fangraphs that might show the way in how this might be accomplished, and in the Twins' case, it might be some painful reading, but well worth it.   The prime focus of the article notes that the secret to success for the Pirate pitching staff is GB%- 5 of their 6 starters have a rate in the 90th percentile or better (Worley 94%, Liriano 91%).  Moreover, they have MLB League-Highest SP GB% the last two seasons (52.8% and 50.9%), and even more significantly, the 2013 and 2014 results are the highest, two Standard Deviations above League Average, GB%, since 2002.  Equally important, the number of weakly-hit ground balls being induced by every one of their top 6 starters is above league average.   The author points out the strong correlation to success that these numbers can help produce- between the top 9 teams in highest, two deviation rate from average, for GB% since 2002- as a group, these 9 teams averaged over 90 wins.

 

Blengino summarizes:

 

 

To sum it all up, the Pirates not only allow way more grounders than anyone else, they also allow weaker than average grounders, and their infield defense is much better than average at turning them into outs. This, my friends, is how run prevention works.

 

But Blengino wasn't done with his "schooling" lesson for the MN Twins. How the Pirates coaching staff and management put this group together, and then went out and accomplished these numbers is quite revealing.  

 

For starters, the Pirates only home-grown product, Gerrit Cole, had contact management issues dating back to college that needed fixing- he's now at the highest GB% of his career at any level- mission accomplished.

 

And not to be discounted, the Bucs acquired BOTH Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke for....to repeat, in the same trade.... wait for it... Nate McClouth. 

 

Edinson Volquez was signed as a FA for $5M in the offseason, after what on the surface looks like a terrible season in 2013, outright released by the Pads, and played out the string with Dodgers (-2.4 bWAR).  What did the Pirates see in Volquez (2014 bWAR of 2.4, 3.04 ERA)?  Well, it turns out in 2013 he obtained the lowest average grounder velocity in all of baseball.  Are you kidding me? I guess somebody was really doing their homework!  Seems like Pirates management and their overarching ground-ball-inducing priorities, thought Volquez just might be a fit- he's gone from -2.4 WAR to + 2.4 WAR. (I'm wondering who, if anybody, bid against them for Volquez in the offseason?)

 

We know all too well the turnaround that Francisco Liriano has enjoyed, the Bucs increased his slider and change-up percentages along with some other tinkering in his mechanics, and now his K/9, K%, GB% and GB/FB rates are higher than for any year other than 2006.  And just as important, so are his LOB% results the last two seasons; while usually a number attributed to luck, but in this case, it can at least somewhat significantly be attributed to the Pirates stellar infield defense.  If I were Liriano (3.0 bWAR in 2013, 1.8 bWAR in 2014) and his agent, I couldn't stop thanking the Pirates enough for turning his career completely around and giving him the upcoming chance he has been given to go on the market this offseason, and look to make an AAV 7-figure, multi-year contract.  

 

Unfortunately, the author saved the best/worst, namely the Vanimal, for last. ***Warning, the statistical breakdown, and the stunning "Worley-Dervish" turnaround in his career, thought dead and buried only last spring, is a disturbing lesson for Twins fans***:

 

 

 

To put it mildly, Vance Worley’s stay in Minnesota didn’t go well. posting a 7.21 ERA and allowing two baserunners per inning in abbreviated 2013 duty. The Pirates must have liked what they physically saw – and what they inferred from his Pitch and Hit f(x) numbers – as they purchased him for cash near the end of 2014 spring training.

 

 His low K and BB rates, both 18 percentile ranks, suggest that he’s your typical pitch-to-contact guy – the kind of guy the Twins love.  His grounder percentile rank of 94 is by far a career high – his previous best was 53 in 2012. His liner percentile rank is extremely low at 4 –  Not only do we now have a pitcher with a newly found extreme grounder tendency, we also have one who is allowing significantly less than average authority on the relatively few fly balls he does allow.   

 

How is he doing it? Well, he has thrown dramatically more two-seam fastballs since joining the Pirates. Fully 40.7% of his pitches in 2014 have been two-seamers – his previous high two-seam percentage was 16.2% in 2012. He is throwing his four-seamer and cutter much less, and the new arrangement has made him a new man. An extremely significant portion of his ground balls have been induced by the two-seamer.

                                                                                                                                    

It would seem that at the very least, the new and improved Vance Worley has a home in the mid-to-lower range of a strong Pirate rotation going forward.     The Pirates again identified an undervalued asset, utilizing scouting and analytical information to do so, and have transformed him into a piece that it would cost $10M per year to purchase on the free agent market. Instead, they have paid a grand total of $16.5M to their six 2014 starters combined.   That number might seem poised to rise as Cole enters his arb years and guys like Volquez and Liriano prepare to collect paychecks commensurate with their newfound production levels, but the Pirates very well might simply plug in another rookie, like a Tyler Glasnow, and unearth one or two more buy-low candidates while waving goodbye to one or more of their soon-to-be unaffordable incumbents. It’s the plight of the small market club, one which the Pirates have learned to embrace.

 

 

Further fuel to the fire.... Worley already has spoken out on a simple correction the Pirates made in his delivery that the Twins didn't catch... and to reiterate, look at the amazing improvement in GB%, from previous-best, 53rd percentile to 94th percentile!  

 

Oh, the author mentioned that the top 6 starters cost Pittsburgh only an astonishingly low $16.5M.... but it's worth mentioning that they also overcame the adversity of a bad contract, the Pirates accomplished these results and still had to eat a $13M contract with Wandy Rodriguez (-1.0 bWAR in 27 IP).  So..... the Twins, at just under $32M for their top 7 SPs, spent slightly more than the Pirates did for their first 7 SPs- at $29.5M.  But the Pirates have a team SP ERA of 3.62- while the Twins SP ERA is 5.08, with the two Twins castoffs comfortably beating the Pirates overall ERA average, Liriano- 3.32 ERA... Worley 2.93 ERA.

 

I sure hope that Terry Ryan and staff are taking notes by now, this article presents a trove of lessons on how to have a very successful SP corps without breaking the bank.  I've advocated for taking a closer look at bounce-back guys in trade, with unwanted big contracts, like Trevor Cahill. Based on this article, now I'd have to think for every Cahill, there must be at least 2 or 3 Vasquez's, Lirianos or Worleys floating around out there simply in need of a change in scenery and adjustment in approach and pitch selection... and a Twins scout doing his homework and finding potential value in the type of guys they're currently simply getting rid of, as well as a pitching coaching staff finding the right formula to make this a "group staff project" and instilling a new-found emphasis at inducing more GBs.  The Twins currently rank 21st in SP GB% (42.7%).

 

And of course, improving the Infield defense a little bit, too.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Interesting read.. Liriano was always a ground ball pitcher, though Worley certainly wasn't. I think the trick there is finding guys who can fit that philosophy. Liriano was a no brainer... Worley was a very cheap low risk pickup.

[markos]

I don't necessarily think that the Twins need to mimic the Pirates and become GB-centric - other teams (Royals, Rays, Orioles) have had good success matching pitching staffs with flyball tendencies with rangy outfield defenses. That being said, the Twins definitely need to find some kind of run-prevention synergy with the team. Right now, they have a flyball staff (5th highest flyball rate in the league) but have matched that with one of the worst outfield defenses. It may be easier to upgrade the outfield defense and stick with their flyball pitchers (Hughes, Perkins, Fien, et al) than attempt to turnover the pitching staff.

[jokin]

. Worley was a very cheap low risk pickup...

 

...and one whom the Twins had absolutely no pressing reason to give away for nothing last March... rather than just a cheap low-risk pick-up... seems more like an absolute steal for the Pirates, as was Volquez (Twins got Pelfrey for $0.5M more!), and as was Liriano the previous year. Vanimal turned just 27 years old, yesterday, and apparently still won't yet be eligible for arbitration.  As much as TR has been celebrated for finding bargains in the rubble, the Pirates seem to have learned enough at sabre-researching to become expert at hanging out in the low-rent district and coming up roses-  when they say a target acquisition is "better than his numbers indicate", they've got a track record to back up their claim.

[Mike Sixel]

Another great article about how Pittsburgh looked in the mirror, saw it wasn't working, and changed how they work. That's what a company does (usually).

[Steven Buhr]

I tend to agree with marcos. There are more than one way to effectively build a roster.

 

I think we can all agree, however, that matching an "offense-first, to heck with defense" line up with a "make them put it in play" pitching staff is a recipe for 90+ losses a year.

 

The good news is that the Twins have some bat-missing pitchers in the pipeline, as well as some pretty amazing defenders. I've seen several who I am absolutely confident will be quality Major League ballplayers.

 

I wish I was more confident than I am that they would reach that level of success in a Twins uniform.

[stringer bell]

If we transplanted the Pirates pitching staff on the Twins (with the Twins position players), how effective would they be?  I think, pretty effective.  Infield defense was not a Twins problem in 2014.  Outfield defense was and catching was a net negative.  Specifically, Liriano and Worley have found something that really works.  It will make Liriano a lot of money and almost guarantee Worley a job with an arb salary bump. 

 

For whatever reason, the Twins have come up empty on several guys who came to them with a middling to decent track record--Marquis, Worley, so far Milone, and so far Nolasco.  We know that changes of scenery and a fresh start sometimes is all a guy needs (see Hughes, Phil).  It also helps when balls that should be outs are turned into outs. 

[jokin]

I tend to agree with marcos. There are more than one way to effectively build a roster.

 

 

I wish I was more confident than I am that they would reach that level of success in a Twins uniform.

 

I don't necessarily think that the Twins need to mimic the Pirates and become GB-centric - other teams (Royals, Rays, Orioles) have had good success matching pitching staffs with flyball tendencies with rangy outfield defenses. That being said, the Twins definitely need to find some kind of run-prevention synergy with the team. Right now, they have a flyball staff (5th highest flyball rate in the league) but have matched that with one of the worst outfield defenses. It may be easier to upgrade the outfield defense and stick with their flyball pitchers (Hughes, Perkins, Fien, et al) than attempt to turnover the pitching staff.

 

No doubt the Twins have a flyball staff, but that 5th highest FB% is quite a bit skewed, as it includes the Relievers.  The SPs FB% ranks 12th highest, kind of in the middle.  But it just doesn't seem a very good combination overall though in terms of hopes for achieving any kind of significant increase in run-prevention,- seems more like the "Perfect Storm"- as in... to have the absolute last-place K-rates for both Relievers and Starters, and coupled that with bad-to-middling FB rates, topped by a bad OF defense. I don't think that's the ideal strategy for pitch to contact.

[jokin]

 

 

For whatever reason, the Twins have come up empty on several guys who came to them with a middling to decent track record--Marquis, Worley, so far Milone,

 

and so far Nolasco. 

 

We know that changes of scenery and a fresh start sometimes is all a guy needs (see Hughes, Phil). 

 

It also helps when balls that should be outs are turned into outs. 

 

Two case-study, real-time examples about "balls that should be outs"- and who benefits, who suffers-

 

Volquez ERA 3.04 xFIP 4.20   +1.16 differential

Nolasco ERA 5.47 xFIP 3.99  -1.48 differential

[Siehbiscuit]

I remember asking in another thread about batted ball velocity! If the Twins had pitchers like the Pirates it would allow the defense to make a lot more of the routine plays and range may be less of a factor. Great article.

[nicksaviking]

Groundballs to the right side of the infield still score a runner from 3rd, as does a fly ball to the outfield.  I care much less whether they build a flyball or groundball rotation then I do that they stop employing starters with a sub 6.5 K/9 rate.  The bullpen should require a minimum 8.0 K/9 rate.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Vanimal turned just 27 years old, yesterday, and apparently still won't yet be eligible for arbitration.

Minor correction: Worley should finally be eligible for arbitration this winter, as a Super-2 player with 2 years, 139 days of service.

 

Still doesn't change your main point, which was why we gave up on him for nothing.  Even granting the success of Hughes, it seems more and more like the Twins acquire (and cast aside) MLB arms somewhat randomly these days.  Which is a terrible strategy when you won't/can't acquire top-level arms.

[jokin]

I remember asking in another thread about batted ball velocity! If the Twins had pitchers like the Pirates it would allow the defense to make a lot more of the routine plays and range may be less of a factor. Great article.

 

Yeah, that comment about what attracted the Pirates to Volquez absolutely jumped off the page for me.

[jokin]

Minor correction: Worley should finally be eligible for arbitration this winter, as a Super-2 player with 2 years, 139 days of service.

 

Still doesn't change your main point, which was why we gave up on him for nothing.  Even granting the success of Hughes, it seems more and more like the Twins acquire (and cast aside) MLB arms somewhat randomly these days.  Which is a terrible strategy when you won't/can't acquire top-level arms.

 

OK. Thanks Stringer.  I wasn't sure if his 2 years service time going in this year, plus June 15-September 28 passes the cutoff for Super 2 or not.  Still, they now have revived the value of a still-young arm and have 4 more years of control of a once-deemed-worthless asset only 6 months ago.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I agree that gb% is underrated. Look at how Gibson's been able to have success with such a horrid strikeout rate.

I do think the article and this discussion oversimplifies Worley's resurgence. His gb% is at 49.7% - a career high for him. His second best year? 2013 at 47.1% with the Twins. Here are some other big differences between the years:

 

Year       BABIP       LOB%      HR/FB

2013:     .401           65.2%       15.5

2014:     .291           74.5%       9.3%

 

Some of the luck statistics normalized for him. Maybe that has to do with a better defense. 

 

Another factor was discussed in a Fangraphs article on tuesday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/return-of-the-most-deceptive-pitcher-in-baseball/

 

He is suddenly getting called strikes again. Why? Partly because he has better control, I imagine. But I don't think we should undervalue pitch framing here. Russell Martin is among the best defensive catchers in the game by any account. 

 

Anyway, I think there's a lot at play and simplifying it is dangerous, IMO

[jokin]

I agree that gb% is underrated. Look at how Gibson's been able to have success with such a horrid strikeout rate.

I do think the article and this discussion oversimplifies Worley's resurgence. His gb% is at 49.7% - a career high for him. His second best year? 2013 at 47.1% with the Twins. Here are some other big differences between the years:

 

Year       BABIP       LOB%      HR/FB

2013:     .401           65.2%       15.5

2014:     .291           74.5%       9.3%

 

Some of the luck statistics normalized for him. Maybe that has to do with a better defense. 

 

Another factor was discussed in a Fangraphs article on tuesday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/return-of-the-most-deceptive-pitcher-in-baseball/

 

He is suddenly getting called strikes again. Why? Partly because he has better control, I imagine. But I don't think we should undervalue pitch framing here. Russell Martin is among the best defensive catchers in the game by any account. 

 

Anyway, I think there's a lot at play and simplifying it is dangerous, IMO

 

Great points. The IF defense, as the article alludes to without statistical support to back it up, I think, is a huge difference-maker for Worley, as it is for Volquez.  The Buc DRS and OOZ ratings are near the top in all of baseball.  But the one number cited that stood out was the switch the Pirates made, to using the previously rarely-used 2-seam FB as his new main pitch, and throwing it at a +40% rate... and there's definitely success he's had with the pitch in achieving the bulk of his GB outs, as well as the point they made that he's achieving his highest level ever of weakly hit balls.  That's an indication that there is no question that the Pirate coaching staff thought this thing out and devloped a specific plan for success for Worley (as they did for Liriano previously).  

 

And no question that Martin is right there in the discussion about #1 defensive catcher, and not just for pitch-framing abilities. My assumption from the article (and I could be wrong), was that Russell Martin was counted as part of the superior Pirate Infield defense.  The Pirate C and SS position players (Mercier and Barmes), by the numbers and the eye test, are much, much better than what the Twins can currently put out there.

[jokin]

I agree that gb% is underrated. Look at how Gibson's been able to have success with such a horrid strikeout rate.

I do think the article and this discussion oversimplifies Worley's resurgence. His gb% is at 49.7% - a career high for him. His second best year? 2013 at 47.1% with the Twins. Here are some other big differences between the years:

 

Year       BABIP       LOB%      HR/FB

2013:     .401           65.2%       15.5

2014:     .291           74.5%       9.3%

 

Some of the luck statistics normalized for him. Maybe that has to do with a better defense. 

 

Another factor was discussed in a Fangraphs article on tuesday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/return-of-the-most-deceptive-pitcher-in-baseball/

 

He is suddenly getting called strikes again. Why? Partly because he has better control, I imagine. But I don't think we should undervalue pitch framing here. Russell Martin is among the best defensive catchers in the game by any account. 

 

Anyway, I think there's a lot at play and simplifying it is dangerous, IMO

 

The other point was that the Pirates are achieving similar GB numbers with all 6 of their starters, and have done so over two seasons, not one, which presumably removes some of the randomness of the outcomes.

[Willihammer]

Watching the Tigers broadcast yesterday, the announcer commented "The Twins playing Victor Martinez straight up. They are one of the few teams who doesn't shift against him." Sure enough the third of Martinez's 3 hits was a grounder up the middle, too far to the left of Santana's reach.

 

I know its a 1 lonely data point but this isn't the first batter I've heard this about. JJ Hardy is another (which I thought was funny - didn't the Twins try to coach Hardy stop pulling the ball?). Brian McCann is a third (earlier this year Gardy said they didn't shift on McCann because they didn't have enough data on him).

 

They don't need Cal Ripken Jr at shortstop; they need to be positioned better. There is no excuse for a team as tight fisted as the Twins, not to be on the cutting edge of shifting - those outs are free.

[Badsmerf]

The media brigade against the Twins continues.....

[nicksaviking]

 Brian McCann is a third (earlier this year Gardy said they didn't shift on McCann because they didn't have enough data on him).

 

 

 

 

 

That's a bit disturbing.  The Twins may not have enough data on him, but there's plenty of data out there.  The guy's been playing pro ball since 2001.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well this is thoroughly depressing.. if there are teams that far ahead of us, it makes me wonder if we are a much longer ways from competing than I previously believed. It's one thing to have barstool arguments about how guys like Worley and Liriano have improved after leaving the Twins, it's another thing to see it quantified and backed up by a good body of data. If the Twins aren't open to changing their ways and getting some new decision makers in, it's going to be a long, long wait. 

[gil4]

Well this is thoroughly depressing.. if there are teams that far ahead of us, it makes me wonder if we are a much longer ways from competing than I previously believed. It's one thing to have barstool arguments about how guys like Worley and Liriano have improved after leaving the Twins, it's another thing to see it quantified and backed up by a good body of data. If the Twins aren't open to changing their ways and getting some new decision makers in, it's going to be a long, long wait. 

 

On another thread, someone asked if we really thought replacing Gardy wouild turn a 90 loss team into a 90 win team.  At the time, I thought that by itself, probably not, but it might get us to .500 (81 losses) and improvements elsewhere might get us there.  After reading this, my "maybe" is a stronger maybe.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

On Worley - it's possible that The Pirates had the best possible combination of coaching, teammates, ballpark dimensions, conditioning and dieticians to work in Worley's favor. He has had a much better season this year because pretty much every metric has improved for him. Some players just don't fit a team's philosophy, others are really in tune with what a team is trying to do.

 

I think it's not all that different from College QB's that are great at running the offense that a particular coach has put together, but when they move to the pros, all of that goes out the window because they are now working outside of the system that emphasized all their strengths and minimized their faults.

 

All of this is to say that the Twins should know what kind of players are right for their system, and should be able to either adjust the player to fit system, or adjust the system to fit the players.

 

Target Field is considered a pitchers park because it has a decent amount of fair territory in the OF. That means guys like Denard Span and Ben Revere could thrive defensively using their speed. Santana has been able to use his speed to really flourish out of position in CF this year. Schafer has had a nice couple of months in Left and Center as well. More athletic, fast guys in the Outfield will play to the strengths of the ballpark.

 

If you have a pitching staff that is more flyball than groundball happy, again, need to have that OF defense to be strong. Emphasize the strengths of the team and as much as possible minimize their faults.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Target Field is considered a pitchers park because it has a decent amount of fair territory in the OF. That means guys like Denard Span and Ben Revere could thrive defensively using their speed. Santana has been able to use his speed to really flourish out of position in CF this year. Schafer has had a nice couple of months in Left and Center as well. More athletic, fast guys in the Outfield will play to the strengths of the ballpark.

 

 

Reading the linked article, I also kept thinking back to the Center Field / outfield speed issue. Hicks, like Worley, seems like a guy who's not going to be successful in the system here. Yet the Twins were betting on Hicks again this year, even after last year's shaky experiment. (That bet could still pay off with Mays and Meyer let's hope.)

 

When Hicks struggled, they found Sam Fuld on waivers. When Fuld had the concussion, they tried Eduardo Escobar as center fielder. Not sure who would have been uglier, Escobar or Bartlett… in any case, in isolation I can defend Gardy's choice to keep Santana in center even among calls to work Santana at short. But the article indirectly hints at more systemic problems the Twins have than lack of CF depth, though that is important. Anyway, my two cents.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I definitely agree with the CF depth issue - it was obvious to TD readers in April that was a problem after heading North with Bartlett as the only back-up.

 

I think I read somewhere that Fly Balls are more likely to turn into outs than ground balls (and of course, more likely to turn into outs than line drives) -  if the Twins can find the right mix of fly ball pitchers and speedy outfielders, perhaps they can even improve upon the success of the Pirates.

 

I think the problem this year is that they had a lot of Line Drive pitchers instead of flyball pitchers or ground ball pitchers.

[Badsmerf]

April? You do mean April of 2013 I hope. The CF situation is more than a problem, it has been a catastrophe.... one that likely won't be fixed with Terry Ryan running things until Buxton is up (granted, could be 2015). 

 

The Twins could very well drastically improve in 2015. New manager, new LF, and elite SP. That, will get this team moving in the right direction. I would rather bring in a guy like Span/Rasmus to play CF for a few months than focus on LF. I do like Hunter though, and really wouldn't mind a stint with him in LF to end his career.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well - yeah - I could have clarified it as "still" a problem this April, after having a year of not having a solution in CF.

[Thrylos]

Big Volquez fan.  Matter of fact, last off-season, with a little analysis I did, I concluded that he would be a good match for the Twins.  (Hughes is in the list, too)

 

RE: the Twins having a couple pitchers like Liriano and Worley:

 

They did.  The pitching coach could not make it happen.  The big elephant in the room might be not the pitchers themselves, but the coach...

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think it's interesting that Worley is throwing more two-seam fastballs and less four-seam fastballs - that has to be a coaching decision, right? There was a lot of digital ink spilled over Hughes' tinkering with his repetoire and choosing to stick with the high heat and re-incorporating the curveball - It's possible Worley would have improved if the Twins had kept him on another year. 

[drjim]

I think it's interesting that Worley is throwing more two-seam fastballs and less four-seam fastballs - that has to be a coaching decision, right? There was a lot of digital ink spilled over Hughes' tinkering with his repetoire and choosing to stick with the high heat and re-incorporating the curveball - It's possible Worley would have improved if the Twins had kept him on another year. 

 

Or perhaps with a different pitching coach? Or a more strategic shift.

 

I wonder if perhaps the biggest difference between the Pirates and Twins org is a disconnect between what the FO knows in regards to acquiring talent and how it is executed on the field. Gardy does shift but as stated he doesn't seem fully committed. I don't buy the Twins haven't changed narrative, but I would certainly agree that Gardy hasn't 100% embraced it or that it is as systematically implemented as an organization like the Pirates.