Worley and Liriano ... A Fangraphs case study for why change is needed in Minnesota

[Mike Sixel]

They need to win. They need the Cards to lose. Then they play a tiebreaker against the Cards. What are the odds that all works out? I would say low.

[Otto von Ballpark]

They need to win. They need the Cards to lose. Then they play a tiebreaker against the Cards. What are the odds that all works out? I would say low.

I agree, I would have saved Cole.  But it seems like teams like to do anything they can to avoid elimination games (particularly when they would be scheduled to face a guy like Bumgarner in said game).

[Willihammer]

They need to win. They need the Cards to lose. Then they play a tiebreaker against the Cards. What are the odds that all works out?

About 1/10.

 

But, the payoff is, basically, a first round bye, thus (almost) doubling the chances of advancing to the ALCS.

 

I'm not sure its clear cut who the Pirates 1-2-3-4-5th best starters are.

[Mike Sixel]

About 1/10.

 

But, the payoff is, basically, a first round bye, thus (almost) doubling the chances of advancing to the ALCS.

 

I'm not sure its clear cut who the Pirates 1-2-3-4-5th best starters are.

 

Fair. It was a bad decision, imo, but not an indefensible decision.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not sure its clear cut who the Pirates 1-2-3-4-5th best starters are.

That was probably the key for Pittsburgh -- I think they liked Volquez, and Cole has underperformed his peripherals overall.

[alskntwnsfn]

Great thread... getting back to the issue at hand though. 

 

Grantland did a fantastic piece on how the Pirates use analytics: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pittsburgh-pirates-mike-fitzgerald-mit-sabermetric-road-show/ 

 

I encourage you to read that. When you're done with that, read the book "Talent is Overrated" specifically the part about deliberate practice. Or just google "deliberate practice". 

 

Then think about how the Twins do things (that is to say, if it's not in the book of TK, we don't follow it). With that you will have a full understanding of why this team has underperformed and despite some talented youth is unlikely to be in playoff contention anytime soon (if this is what the competition is doing). 

 

These things disturb me even more than the Twins record the last three years. Much more in fact.  

[Willihammer]

Great thread... getting back to the issue at hand though. 

 

Grantland did a fantastic piece on how the Pirates use analytics: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pittsburgh-pirates-mike-fitzgerald-mit-sabermetric-road-show/ 

Really interesting read. I wonder if the Twins intention in bringing in Molitor last year was to be that liason between the FO and Gardy.

[alskntwnsfn]

Really interesting read. I wonder if the Twins intention in bringing in Molitor last year was to be that liason between the FO and Gardy.

 

I doubt it. I'm sure they are using analytics in some capacity, but I think it's more at the level of spray charts and average against R/L. Those things are simple but have merit. However, the Pirates are going much deeper. And that data is used (and understood) on the field and in the GM's office. Big difference. 

 

On the coaching change... if we replace Gardy with somebody who is going to approach managing the same way, that's like showing up to work with a different tie and expecting different results. 

[Willihammer]

I doubt it. I'm sure they are using analytics in some capacity, but I think it's more at the level of spray charts and average against R/L. Those things are simple but have merit. However, the Pirates are going much deeper. And that data is used (and understood) on the field and in the GM's office. Big difference. 

 

On the coaching change... if we replace Gardy with somebody who is going to approach managing the same way, that's like showing up to work with a different tie and expecting different results. 

Do we know for a fact that the Pirates' FO is going deeper with analytics? It could be that Jack Goin's analytics are just as insightful, only that he's either failed to effectively communicate to Gardy and the field staff, or the field staff hasn't been as receptive to him as Clint Hurdle and his coaches have been to Dan Fox's analytics.

 

It looks to me like the Pirates knew they had a receptive manager but wanted to be able to investigate hypotheses on the fly in order to expoit short windows of opportunity. Thus the creation of Fitzgerald's position as a traveling sabermetrician. Its that sort of eagerness to wield analytics as a tool that I want to see in the next manager, and not a fear or ignorance of it.

[alskntwnsfn]

Do we know for a fact that the Pirates' FO is going deeper with analytics? It could be that Jack Goin's analytics are just as insightful, only that he's either failed to effectively communicate to Gardy and the field staff, or the field staff hasn't been as receptive to him as Clint Hurdle and his coaches have been to Dan Fox's analytics.

 

It looks to me like the Pirates knew they had a receptive manager but wanted to be able to investigate hypotheses on the fly in order to expoit short windows of opportunity. Thus the creation of Fitzgerald's position as a traveling sabermetrician. Its that sort of eagerness to wield analytics as a tool that I want to see in the next manager, and not a fear or ignorance of it.

 

That's my point. I don't know anything about what Jack Goin is or isn't doing, but the coaching staff is looking into things deeper. It doesn't matter what Jack does if the field staff or FO don't use his stuff. And that's not to say analytics are to be used in every instance, but the Pirates seem to be making it work, particularly on the pitching side. 

 

I think your points are well said and I agree about our next manager... I've thought that for a long time, which is always why I've always wished the FO would explain, specifically, how the club is going about improving WRT to the methods they use. If they are trade secrets, they haven't been worth anything the last three years so you might as well talk about them. 

[TheLeviathan]

The power, strike-throwing Tigers are now down 0-2 to a relatively weak Baltimore pitching staff.  

 

Conclusion:  Don't draw sweeping conclusions about the baseball playoffs.  It's just a crapshoot.

[USAFChief]

The power, strike-throwing Tigers are now down 0-2 to a relatively weak Baltimore pitching staff.  

 

Conclusion:  Don't draw sweeping conclusions about the baseball playoffs.  It's just a crapshoot.

I might conclude that bullpens are important, good relievers really aren't cheap and easy to find, and managerial decisions really do matter.

[TheLeviathan]

I might conclude that bullpens are important, good relievers really aren't cheap and easy to find, and managerial decisions really do matter.

 

None of that explains Clayton Kershaw tonight.  Or Scherzer last night.  Or Joe Nathan in virtually every Twins playoff appearance.  

 

Baseball is a funny sport, it has a tendency to make generalizations about "the right build to win" look very silly, very often.

[USAFChief]

None of that explains Clayton Kershaw tonight.  Or Scherzer last night.  Or Joe Nathan in virtually every Twins playoff appearance.  

 

Baseball is a funny sport, it has a tendency to make generalizations about "the right build to win" look very silly, very often.

All true. Although I think even Clayton Kershaw can run out of gas, at which point I tend to point to managerial decision over random chance. One truism I've mentioned before and still believe...lose a lead late with a reliever on the mound, that's on the reliever. Lose a lead late with the starter on the mound, that's usually on the manager.

 

But yeah...trying to figure out baseball is hard.

[LaBombo]

One truism I've mentioned before and still believe...lose a lead late with a reliever on the mound, that's on the reliever. Lose a lead late with the starter on the mound, that's usually on the manager.

 

That seems even more true in the postseason.  Almost all bets are off with regard to the implications of stressing the bullpen, and managers are usually even more hesitant to be the guy who left the starter in too long.

 

Jack Morris is sort of the exception to prove the rule.  The virtually unprecedented act of having him retake the mound in the tenth would have gotten Kelly tarred and feathered in the media (and a good chunk of the fan base) if the Twins had lost on a run Morris gave up that inning.

 

Of course many people at the game would probably defend the move if it led to a loss with a simple 'you had to be there'.  The image of him taking the mound and the crowd reaction is as indelible as any play in a Series absolutely full of them.

[SarasotaBill]

Everyone - great article and thread.

 

I think the most underrated aspect is ball movement. 90Mph with movement is better than a straight 93Mph.

 

Movement creates Ks and weak hits.

 

The Pirates have maximized their pitchers' effectiveness by throwing two seamers vs four seamers. The radar gun won't like it but the results are the proof.

 

Regarding the pull shift, you can throw off speed to the outside of the plate. However, I've seen the shift beaten when the pitcher throws a FB on the outside corner. There is no magic bullet but the shift takes advantage of percentages and forces hitters into uncomfortable reactions.

[jokin]

That seems even more true in the postseason.  Almost all bets are off with regard to the implications of stressing the bullpen, and managers are usually even more hesitant to be the guy who left the starter in too long.

 

Jack Morris is sort of the exception to prove the rule.  The virtually unprecedented act of having him retake the mound in the tenth would have gotten Kelly tarred and feathered in the media (and a good chunk of the fan base) if the Twins had lost on a run Morris gave up that inning.

 

Of course many people at the game would probably defend the move if it led to a loss with a simple 'you had to be there'.  The image of him taking the mound and the crowd reaction is as indelible as any play in a Series absolutely full of them.

 

Thanks for the images.  "You had to be there"  really says it all.  Brought back some Saturday Early AM -in-October goosebumps. At the time, it was pratically an out-of-body experience for the average Twins fan...  I mean, Morris was pitching a shutout into the 10th in Game 7 of the World Series. and then, in the aftermath, not fully grasping the significane of the epic moment in baseball history, I naively just assumed we'd have many more chances to second-guess our manager's post-season pitching change strategies in the nest 23 years.    As far as Game 7s and SPs pitching into the extras and getting the complete game, this had only been successfully attempted by Christy Mathewson in 1912.... Morris and Kelly were truly treading into ground trodden only by legends.