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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    According to Fangraphs the Twins defense at catcher ranks 8th in baseball. They are very good at framing the ball and that has saved runs. Jeffers has been one of the best receivers in baseball. They could rank better but the stolen base numbers have cost them two runs over 65 games this year.
  2. jorgenswest
    He will be back up soon enough. I thought he needed a long stretch in AAA to get his swing back from before the wrist injuries. I believe I said two months. Today is one month. I am probably swayed by the small sample of that month but I would bring him up when the number of pitchers is restricted to a maximum of 13. I believe that is the end of this week.
  3. jorgenswest
    The preparation to play catcher is more intense than any other position. You need to the game plan, the opposing hitters and your own ever changing staff (29 pitchers so far?). The other parts of the game are going to take time to develop.
  4. jorgenswest
    As for the pick no one picked in the 2018 second round has more WAR than Jeffers. Only 7 of the 35 have reached the majors. One of the catchers picked after him, Will Banfield, is hitting .208 in A+. Banfield was given an over slot 1.8 million compared to Jeffers’ 800K. Josh Breaux (over slot 1.5M) his hitting .224 in AA. It seems like the Twins made a very good pick with their reach. It is really hard to find and develop a catcher. I would be patient with his bat. If the Twins value throwing out runners more they can change his positioning away from one that is designed to frame the plate.
  5. jorgenswest
    After his first 14 starts Berrios had an ERA over 8. Sands is not ready but I sure would not DFA him based on a few months of bouncing back and forth this season.
  6. jorgenswest
    I certainly don’t need to know. I would prefer if the opposing teams don’t know.
  7. jorgenswest
    I look at that same list and appreciate the depth. I don’t think an Archer or Bundy type addition will be as necessary. I also believe an addition at the top like Montas would be really improve that group.
  8. jorgenswest
    He has carved out a role and is worthy of a roster spot. As for upgrade I don’t think they should aim to upgrade a bench spot with another bench player. I think you upgrade to someone who is going to knock several players down a notch and maybe it is Gordon that is left without a spot.
  9. jorgenswest
    We have nothing other than any of us who can watch routinely or read reports of those who watch routinely.
  10. jorgenswest
    We really have nothing to work with. It may take years for range factor to stabilize at the major league level. Bill James reintroduced it in 1976. He lists many problems. Among them are opportunities are not counted, outfields are sized differently, teams don’t see the same number of balls in play(due to strike outs), staffs that throw more ground balls and it doesn’t take into account the overall defensive skill of the team. Every player shares from the same pie. Team range factor is going to be about the same for every team and we know each team can’t be equally skilled defensively.
  11. jorgenswest
    There are a lot of words about range factor here. I am not sure I understand how it is helpful. It is really hard to parse out opportunities to go with the put outs. It is really hard to parse out the difficulty. There are so many factors that skew this data that I don’t see how it can have any meaning. Even if it does have meaning I think center field is a new position for Martin. You would expect struggle with the possibility of significant improvement. By my eye I see that improvement in Gordon as he gains experience. Martin is a AA player with what reports to be a high end skill of commanding the strike zone. We have seen teams like the Yankees and Astros that really value that skill. It is also appears they are pushing the limits of the defensive spectrum as well as trying to make some changes to unleash more power. Both of those changes take time. They will result in errors and some poor at bats. I would give it time to try to maximize his talents. Let’s see where he is at the end of the year.
  12. jorgenswest
    Should Baldelli have kept him the sixth inning to face the middle of the Yankee line up a third time through? I was hoping it would be Jax in that spot.
  13. jorgenswest
    ERA doesn’t do a very good job of projecting future performance but influences are perception significantly. A few other FIPs Pagán 6.14 Bundy 4.61 Archer 4.94 FIP uses home run rate which does not stabilize early so xFIP might be better projectors as a guide to who the Twins should let go. xFIP Duffey 2.88 Thielbar 4.08 Pagán 3.56 Bundy 4.01 Archer 5.07 I am unsure when xERA stabilizes Duffey 6.71 Thielbar 3.07 Pagán 4.98 Bundy 3.82 Archer 5.52 Why are Duffey’s projectors all over the place? The sample is very small and highly influenced by a 41.7% HR/FB rate. It is highly unlikely that rate going forward will be near 41.7%. Last year it was 7.4% and the previous 5 years it was in the teens.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think the are 66-42 in one run games since 2019.
  15. jorgenswest
    If Arraez makes the play on the ball that rolled just under his glove and Duffey has a clean inning do you write the same article? Another thing that I wonder about is the 50/50. You never get to see the other side of the coin and the decision they didn’t make. Really Baldelli can only fail. Even in the game where he pulled Smeltzer after 4 and Cotton had a clean inning it is seen as a failure. We don’t get to see the side of the coin where Smeltzer pitches that inning and sees the top of the lineup the third time. We don’t have any idea how many failures have been avoided. Baldelli will continue to fail in hindsight if he only has one reliable option in the pen. When they need to get through 5 or 6 innings with this bullpen somebody is going to fail and Baldelli will have made the wrong decision. If Arraez gets that ball then it is about Megill instead or maybe Pagán. The problem is not fixed with the subtraction if Duffey. The only solution to this problem is one of addition and not subtraction. With a few good additions Baldelli’s decision making will improve.
  16. jorgenswest
    Should we be concerned about the average exit velocity? Should we be concerned about his performance last year?
  17. jorgenswest
    Sano’s traditional slash stats were awful in a sample where they should not even be considered. Looking at data that would be more stable at 65 plate appearances… career low strike out rate best walk rate since 2015 career low out of zone swing rate average exit velocity above career average in spite of changes He wasn’t rewarded for his improvement in the zone yet. I do expect he will get an opportunity in the second half and do some damage.
  18. jorgenswest
    On June 19 they go down to 13 pitchers. If his wrist is not troubling him call him up then. The playing time will work itself out.
  19. jorgenswest
    My guess is that an IL stay with rehab assignment would come first.
  20. jorgenswest
    It seems like some are very focused on pitch count. One thing that has been pretty consistent pulling back end starters before they go through the line up the third time. In his last start Archer was pulled with the lead off hitter coming up for the third time. He was only at 57 pitches and it had been taking him 15-20 more pitches to get through the line up twice in his other starts. Smeltzer has seen batters a third time but those were 2 starts against the Royals and one against the Tigers. Yesterday he was up against one of the better hitting teams in baseball with a day off the next day. I can get behind a plan that pulls him early so he doesn’t see that line up a third time in those conditions. Is it possible that Rocco is more concerned about the third time through than pitch count?
  21. jorgenswest
    It is more likely Cotton never gets in the game. You can’t just push Cotton to the 6th and assume the results are the same. They had the match up they wanted for Cotton with the 8th place hitter coming up. They decided that Cotton gave them a better chance against those three right handed batters than Smeltzer. He came in and pitched a clean inning. If they leave in Smeltzer for the 5th the plan is still Jax to the middle of the line up in the 6th, Smith for the 7th and Duran for the last two.
  22. jorgenswest
    Given that Cotton came in a clean 5th inning it is really hard to argue Smeltzer should have been left in. Did you really want him to face Springer again. His command was shaky. Do we want to hand the ball to Cotton with a runner on and Springer up? We can’t just push everyone back and imagine that Cotton would have had a clean 6th facing the middle of their line up. It still would have been Jax and Smith until their line up turned over and they gave it to Duran. I absolutely want my best pitcher pitching the last two innings against this team. Somehow this team won two games against a very good offense with many pitchers unavailable. There must be some credit we can give to the coaching staff.
  23. jorgenswest
    That was a tough match up for Smeltzer and he would have hit the line up a third time through in the 5th inning with Springer batting third. Starting Cotton with a clean inning was a reasonable move given the day off.
  24. jorgenswest
    That is a good comparison. Shoemaker’s last start was game 57. He had an ERA of 7.28 after that game. I don’t know his FIP but he pitched little after that and it was 6.57 for the year. Yesterday was game 55. Bundy’s ERA is 5.57 (FIP 4.62). Unless Winder, Gray and Ryan are all ready to return soon without rehab they don’t have a better option for his next start or two.
  25. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t need the same players but just similar as a means of retaining value. It could be Canterino instead of Woods-Richardson. They have similar value according to BTV.
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