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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Severino had a wRC+ of 100 in AAA in his 153 PAs. Severino’s numbers in AAA look good until you realize it is typical in the run scoring context of the International League. For context, Celestino was 106 last year and no one would be lobbying for him at corner position. I think Severino needs a half season in AAA to show a wRC+ of 130 or better and put up a lower strikeout rate. The Twins had the patience for Wallner to get to that level and lower his strike out rate. They need patience with Severino. It would help if Julien can play a passable 1B.
  2. jorgenswest
    I wonder if clarity in a TV contract needs to be high on the to do list.
  3. jorgenswest
    Three thoughts… Those 40 man spots are valuable in season and it is a burden to carry anyone that won’t see the major leagues. If they add anyone in free agency they would need to DFA someone. It might be better to keep that spot open. A DFA’d player only needs to be added to the 40. They don’t need to make the opening day roster like a rule 5 pick. The risk of losing an asset is greater. If you pick an Olivar in the rule 5 draft you need to keep him on the 26. If Olivar’s spot on the 40 is needed during the season he would need to be DFA’d and would only need to be kept on another team’s 40. The options clock starts as soon as a player is put on the 40. As an international signing Celestino was put on the 40 quite young and now he is out of options at the same age as Austin Martin who hasn’t started options yet. Willi Castro is an example of another player added to the 40 quite young and then didn’t flourish until it was too late for the Tigers. Using Olivar as an example again, should they start his options clock knowing catchers can take longer to be ready?
  4. jorgenswest
    Gordon’s RAA at SS is 0 and it is 0 at 2B as well as LF. He is only below 0 is center field. Castro has a lot of innings at SS and while below average not dismal. Lewis has a lot of minor league innings at SS. Lee is close to ready. Is that enough to risk letting Farmer and his arb3 go at age 33 where decline at both the bat and glove should be expected?
  5. jorgenswest
    Possible reasons for Gordon… His wRC+ on 2022 was 111 which would have ranked ninth on the team this year. As bad as his .179 BABIP season was this year his xBA and xSLG were both better than Castro’s. His strikeout rate was a very low 11.8% and probably the only number that stabilized in his sample this year. If the argument is that his 2022 performance isn’t good enough to make the team or even be taken to spring training then I look forward to next year’s roster.
  6. jorgenswest
    Would you fill to 40?
  7. jorgenswest
    Gordon’s cost is low enough to tender an offer. I also believe the Gordon of 2022 is the one they would be giving up. His BABiP was unsustainably low in the 100s in his small sample last year. It had been 300s previously. It is possible that Julien is the 1B and they get an offer they like for Polanco. That would open 2B and utility roles for Castro, Gordon, Farmer, Martin, Prato and Lee. A platoon of Gordon and Farmer or Martin could start the year until Lee eventually takes the job. Keeping this possibility open is worth the small cost.
  8. jorgenswest
    I think if you looked at other organizations you will find a Keirsey in most of them. Others will be available as minor league free agents like Andrew Stevenson. I really don’t think he will be taken. If he is pick up a minor league free agent like Cal Stevenson for depth. There were 146 AAA outfielders that had an wRC+ better than Keirsey of 93 last year. Many are younger and 28 played CF. There were 44 AA players with a wRC+ better than his 123. Most were younger than 26. The run scoring context of both of his leagues last year was inflated giving a skewed view of batting performance. I don’t think the stats support his addition to the 40 man roster. There may be things the Twins see outside the stats that would support his addition.
  9. jorgenswest
    Larnach and Wallner also?
  10. jorgenswest
    Julien at 1B has to be the plan next year.
  11. jorgenswest
    I agree. I was looking for a pitcher with two years of control and value in the neighborhood of Lee. I also looked at teams where budgets can sometimes be a factor to the point where they will sell high when the arb figure starts to go up and control is running out. Galen is the one I found. Is there a closer comp to where Lopez was a year ago?
  12. jorgenswest
    Keirsey will be 27 and had a 93 wRC+ in AAA. They just DFA’d Celestino and he is two years younger with a better 106 wRC+. I don’t see them adding Keirsey. I am not even sure they should retain Stevenson who was so much better in AAA. I concur with the addition of Rodriguez, Martin, Severino and Camargo. I haven’t seen Prato play other than on MiLB TV. No way to judge defense on TV. Sometimes when players play lots of positions they can’t play any well. His numbers were so bad in AA and when combined with AAA he is about a 120 wRC+. Is he major league ready to the point where they would let go of Farmer and/or trade Polanco?
  13. jorgenswest
    Winter trades of multiple players for 1 are difficult because all teams have 40 man roster challenges. Head over to BTV and Kirby is valued at 90.1. That exceeds the value of Lewis and Julien combined. Is that something the Twins should pursue? The best asset the Twins have to trade for a starting pitcher is Brooks Lee. If the DBacks were interested in moving Zac Galen and his two years of control Lee might get it done. A pitcher with one year of control like Glasnow might take Rodriquez and Festa. Buy low on Alek Manoah? Control until 2028. Blue Jays might be interested in Polanco in that deal.
  14. jorgenswest
    What were the alternatives? Gallo? He plays 1B better than anyone else on the roster. Luplow? No lefties in the pen with the possible exception of Valdez. Texas has several and I look forward to that discussion. Gordon? His readiness is as unknown as Buxton’s. I do trust that Kirilloff can’t play. His glove was valuable game 2 and in spite of the error in game 3 he would still be my 1B defensively to close out the game if healthy,
  15. jorgenswest
    The Athletic reported this summer that the robo umps used in AAA had a lot of problems. It wasn’t consistent between ballparks. It didn’t adjust hitter to hitter well. It was too small and overly favored the hitters according to Royce Lewis. The 2d box we get on tv has to be worse. I look at an ump score card and wonder how it adjusts for the different strike zone of each hitter. I wonder how it deals with a 3d pentagonal prism zone with the 2d imaging. Look at the game 2 win this week. I wonder whether those two center high called strikes were from the front of the zone. Where is the ball as it exits the back of the pentagon shaped plate? Did it catch the strike zone? Reyburn also seemed very consistent in how he “missed” pitches. I wondered so I went to their site and looked. Here is their brief description. I am mathematician and love this stuff but I still strongly prefer the human zone over the automated zone. I think it will be a while before it is ready and I think they learned that in AAA this year.
  16. jorgenswest
    They might just need to walk Alvarez every time. Every split whether it is against a right handed pitcher, night game, sep/oct, fly ball pitcher shows an OPS over 1000.
  17. jorgenswest
    In this case I think analytics point to Ryan and the performance as shown by season statistics point to Ober. I would have started Ober because all of his work leading up to the ALDS were focused on this date. They both get one start.
  18. jorgenswest
    I didn’t realize splits were analytics. I thought they were just a subset the same data that has been around forever. I thought analytic measures were things like xERA and xFIP where data was analyzed and an ERA estimate is generated. The measures have been shown to be better predictors of future ERA than actual ERA. In this case Ryan shows up better in these measures as his ERA predictors xFIP and xERA were lower than Ober’s. If anything the Twins failed to use analytics in selecting the starter and instead chose the pitcher with the better actual statistics. I thought the Twins made the correct choice in Ober. He had been preparing for starting this day all week. He didn’t execute his pitches well and didn’t locate the ball as well as he usually does. I hope Ryan get’s a chance in a critical game 4.
  19. jorgenswest
    What analytics were used?
  20. jorgenswest
    I wonder about that too. He can no longer be on a minor league rehab but players have started a rehab in the past and then discontinued it staying on IL.
  21. jorgenswest
    If they get three clean innings from Ober I am looking for a fourth clean inning.
  22. jorgenswest
    Agree on Farmer’s price. Based on last year’s comps I expected it to be closer to 8. On the other hand, he is already 33 and they do have some infielders near ready. He could be a tender and like Urshela. De Leon has a good arm but the cost is the spot on the 40 over the winter before he can be put on the 60 day IL.
  23. jorgenswest
    Thoughts as I read the thread. If they do roster Buxton I have more confidence in his contribution since they were willing to sit him in the wild card series. They would sit him again u less they saw enough improvement. One pitcher can start twice in normal rest. Lopez starts games 2 and 5. The Twins OPS against lefties after the all star break is .809. *Valdez had more success against right handed batters than left handed batters in 2023. The outlook is better for this game than it was in the first half. I don’t think any decisions about the roster or rotation will be based on whether or not someone will have hurt feelings. *note: Splits for left handed starters have a skew. They tend to only face the better left handed hitters so the quality of opponent in the left half of the split is higher.
  24. jorgenswest
    Teams can win without offense from their catcher. Skill behind the plate is more important. The Twins will get offense from Jeffers. Next year Vazquez should be the 40% solution with great game calling skills. Few teams will have a secondary catcher with his skills behind the plate. The Twins are fortunate to have Carmargo. Only 4 teams made it through the season using two catchers so that depth will be important. That consistency at catcher is also critical. All 4 teams are in the playoffs.
  25. jorgenswest
    Jax was also selected in 2016. He had a military commitment so it was 2018 before he had any significant minor league time. The pitching team in the organization certainly helped develop a valuable pitcher that was hard to imagine in 2021.
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