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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I needed to look up true lie. It seems like it would have better to simply lie. Would they have sold more tickets without telling us that the budget would be cut? Lie about the budget and sell more tickets. Would they have not signed Farmer or Santana if they didn’t think they were trying to improve the team? Adding short side platoon players or old 5th starters don’t move the needle towards improvement. Really lie and say you couldn’t get any players to sign and go with the inexpensive players.
  2. jorgenswest
    This look at the last spot highlights the need for an everyday bat. The DH against right handed pitching which they will see 75% of the time should not be the last man on the bench. They already have two short side platoon players in Farmer and Santana and some suggest they need a third in a corner OF spot. Signing someone like Taylor for that spot almost guarantees that one of these bats will be in the game most days against right handed pitching. What are the alternatives? Castro? His projections with the bat are all below league average. Vazquez? He will play at least 40% and they can use Jeffers at DH some but that isn’t a viable plan for against right handed pitcher. Jeffers at DH against a lefty works.. They need an everyday bat. There aren’t enough bench spots to carry three short side platoon players.
  3. jorgenswest
    Derek Falvey knows him well. There are several insights into their relationship in the 2019 book “The MVP Machine” by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik. I am not sure there are many in his position who know Bauer better. I will trust his assessment of whether Bauer would be an asset to the Twins.
  4. jorgenswest
    It would be awesome to get Bellinger to take a Correa like 3 year deal with opt outs but that doesn’t seem even remotely possible. I think JD Martinez is the next best solution. I think Martinez is the best everyday bat they can get on a one year deal and I am not sure they will risk beyond one. I don’t think it would be wise to add another short side platoon bat. At best that player gets only two at bats against a lefty in a game and there aren’t enough left handed starters. They need a bat that can be counted on from both sides. Will Buxton need days off from center field? Most certainly. He can DH some of those. Should he be DH when hurting? I would trust Martinez at the plate over Buxton with ailing legs. Need more money? Find someone to take Farmer and his contract for little return as well as pushing the budget towards 140 with the new tv deal. Helman or Martin might be better bench fits as right handed bats with their additional positional flexibility and speed off the bench. Farmer was 28 before finally getting a real bench shot in the majors. I can see Helman following a similar career path. If Correa is on the IL I would prefer Lee over Farmer. Castro can take the rest days at SS. It isn’t a great lineup fit and will really limit Santana to at bats against lefties. However after Bellinger, Martinez is the only option that will have a daily impact on the lineup. There isn’t anyone else after Bellinger that brings that ability.
  5. jorgenswest
    The only possible purpose for Farmer on this roster is to platoon with Julien. We certainly aren’t going to hope he starts hitting right handed pitching at this point. We can hope for the luck of BABIP or HR/FB rate but the skill is in decline. Why not save the Farmer money and start Julien against left handed pitching? Bat him ninth. He will likely still get a couple of at bats against right handed relievers. They can still sit against the best left handed pitchers and play Martin or Castro. However they chose to pay Farmer. The only way that pays off is to start him at 2B against every lefty and squeeze out every other opportunity.
  6. jorgenswest
    Couldn’t make it through this podcast. No insight or really anything that was new in the first 50 minutes. Just rant. Justifiable rant certainly but I listen for insight and entertainment. There may have been something redeeming after the 50 but I didn’t get there.
  7. jorgenswest
    Maybe elite defense at SS (or catcher) should get a player higher in these lists. One elite skill goes a long ways in getting a roster spot. Plenty of time will be given to build the rest.
  8. jorgenswest
    It would be wise to make space if he shows in spring he is one of the top 6 in the pen. I would be rostering the names of those decline phase bullpen options in pencil. They need to give Canterino, Funderburk and Alcala all a chance to win a job in the bullpen. We won’t be able to see it in games and certainly not the spring stats but the trained eyes of the staff needs to evaluate the bullpen options and bring to the season the best arms.
  9. jorgenswest
    They should probably give it until June 1 if going by stats. Severino was at 100 wRC+ in AAA so sustained time around 130 with reduced strikeouts at that level should get him here. We saw him make that improvement in AA from 22 (108) to 23 (149). We also saw his strikeout rate drop in AA considerably in the 6 weeks prior to his AAA call up. In July it was under 25% when it was in the upper 30s to start. Really it was the same with Wallner last year. His strikeout rate was in the 30s into June. In the month prior to last call up it was below 25%. I think the most important in season minor league stats to watch and see if there is progress or change are the strike out and walk numbers. They stabilize pretty quickly. The improvements of both Wallner and Severino last year correlated with their move up a level. Now they need to make that same progress at their new level. I will be joining you in the call to see Miranda or Severino if Santana isn’t hitting after two months. In particular Santana needs to be crushing left handed pitching to really help this roster. League average against lefties won’t be helping this team enough.
  10. jorgenswest
    Any chance we are saying the same thing about Justin Topa, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Brock Stewart and Josh Staumont two years from now? They are in their 30s and none has a sustained track record of success or health. I guess you could add Caleb Thielbar to the list also. The best chance for sustained strength in the pen this year and two years down the road would be the emergence of Funderburk and Canterino as late game options.
  11. jorgenswest
    Isn’t suggesting that he can show his bat over sustained time in AAA giving him time?
  12. jorgenswest
    A lot of talk about Miller on BA’s Twins prospect podcast. His glove is so good that he will get a lot of time to develop the bat.
  13. jorgenswest
    I want three of them also but I doubt there are as many as twenty in the game and very few early in their career. The one they could have had is Burnes and might have him in a package with Lee. I have no idea how you get to three of this caliber pitcher. I don’t think Gray is one of them either. He worked out of many jams last year early in games. He doesn’t get that chance in an elimination game with the ability to rest the pen.
  14. jorgenswest
    Wasn’t there a day off the next day and it was an elimination game? I am guessing they would have stayed with Lopez longer. Ryan doesn’t reach the Lopez trust bar. Few would. Ober doesn’t either. They went with Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax and Duran. Most managers would be pretty confident with those 5 to carry them the rest of the game in order to stave off elimination. If the Twins were up 2-1 and Ryan pitches longer does that mean they trust him more?
  15. jorgenswest
    @DocBauer I looked at the Sands stretch of games earlier today. He pitched a long stretch n May 28 and the was back pitching in AAA June 28. In between the Twins starters routinely pitched into the 6th and 7th inning. Sometimes longer including Joe Ryan’s complete game shutout. The pen was rested and they could have done without a 13th pitcher through that stretch. Should they have had the foresight to go down to 12 pitchers in June? I can’t see how they would. The schedule wasn’t easy and there weren’t many off days. Did the miss opportunities to use Sands? There was one stretch from June 15 to June 18. Gray went 4 innings on June 15 but left with the lead. I think I would go with a better reliever they were rested. They ended up losing when Jorge Lopez blew up the ninth so I suppose they could have assessed that Sands would be more effective than Lopez. There was a bullpen game started by DeLeon two days later. I am sure he was in that plan but they pitched a shut out in this game winning 2-0 and stuck with their best relievers to finish it out. After the bullpen game they used the shuttle to bring up Balazovic and he was needed when Varland was pulled in the 5th. Balazovic held the, scoreless through the 8th inning in his best performance as a Twin. Did they really use this roster spot horribly? In order to use it horribly they needed their starters to routinely pitch deeper in games. That is a good thing. They needed their bullpen to step up and that happened in the two game stretch with DeLeon starting the bullpen game and Balazovic picking up the game in the 5th inning and shutting them down through the 8th. I wouldn’t have taken him out. The only other opportunities would be to take a starter out earlier and not let them pitch into the 6th or 7th. There were some starts where the starter was left in to work out of a jam and gave up some runs. There were more where they worked their way out of the jam. I hope that long starts create similar horrible roster use this year and that 8th spot in the pen is not needed often.
  16. jorgenswest
    I need the option that the logjam is not apparent to me yet. I also think they would be wise to prepare Lewis for the outfield. That is less due a perceived infield log jam but rather a need for more logs in the outfield.
  17. jorgenswest
    Trust is a weighty word here. I also recall that they chose and prepared Ober for that game by not putting him on the roster for the Toronto series. Should we interpret the roster omission as not trusting Ober also? Isn’t it more likely they trusted both? If both series go the full distance they lined it up so Lopez gets 3 starts, Gray and Ryan 2 starts and Ober 1 start.
  18. jorgenswest
    Farmer has a career wRC+ against right handed pitching of 76. It was better last year (92) but with a foundation of an unsustainable hr/fb rate. Take away 3 homers and he is still above his career rate going into last year but the wRC+ takes a big hit. I think we should plan and even hope for 80. His glove has declined. Is this a player that should be starting anywhere against right handed pitching? Injuries will occur and he will need to. If Correa goes down I would prefer they go with the upside of Lee.
  19. jorgenswest
    Adding to the 2B pipeline, I am looking forward to see Dameury Peña’s progress. Can he make it to low A at 18? He will,likely be in complex ball. Arraez had splits of 348/433/400 in the DsL at 17 and moved to the GCL the next year. Peña dwarfed those numbers with splits of 382/453/496. Arraez didn’t make prospects lists. He just hit everywhere he played. Will it be the same for Peña?
  20. jorgenswest
    The Vazquez decision was made when the budget wasn’t as tight and Jeffers was shaky. I can give them a pass on that. I also think the voice of that veteran catcher in those meeting with the pitchers and pitching staff was valuable to not only Jeffers but the pitchers and the coaches. It is hard to accept the other three and I hope they are willing cut their losses with any/all of the three early in the season. Need a right handed short side platoon bat at 2B? They have Martin, Helman, Prato, Goodrum and even Lee all inexpensive. Why not give Julien a few more starts against a lefty and bat him 9th? The way pitchers are used he may only need see that lefty once and certainly not three times. Need a short side platoon bat at 1B? Why not try Miranda first followed by Severino? Give Kirilloff some starts against a lefty at the bottom of the order at times. I would have combined those dollars to get an everyday bat or an upgrade to Varland in the rotation. Short side platoon addendum. Is it wise to have multiple bats whose value is in a short side platoon? The Earl Weaver platoon days of 15 rostered position players and starters pitching 7 or more innings are long gone. You can’t carry a Benny Ayala on your roster most of the season and have him face a right handed pitcher in just 9 plate appearances. Everyone on the roster needs to able to hit right handed pitching just as every bullpen arm is going to see high leverage.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think it is useful to plan to have an arm ready to go up to 50 pitches for every game is prudent. Last year Sands sat in that role for a stretch where the starters were so efficient he wasn’t used. If the 13th pitcher isn’t used often because the starters are pitching 5 or more innings routinely this is a good thing. I would still plan to have that last guy with options in the pen to take over for an early blow out or injury and save the majority for the next day. After the game shuttle them down to AAA and bring up a fresh arm. This is the modern day long reliever. They need to have confidence in the other 7 bullpen arms in high leverage situations.
  22. jorgenswest
    Before I jump in I need to be clear on the terms here. I think an opener is a bullpen arm that is used for one or two innings to start the game followed by a pitcher who might throw 5. To me this is using the pitchers in a different order but not changing the role of the pitcher. The opener would be available the next day or day after for any bullpen role. I think piggybacking starters is taking two starting pitchers and having them throw 3-5 innings depending on their performance. Neither pitcher would be available to the bullpen for the few days after the game and would probably need to be rested for their next piggyback start making them unavailable in the bullpen for the few days prior. Which of these are we talking about in relation to the Rays?
  23. jorgenswest
    The high run scoring environment in AA and particularly AAA makes it really hard to evaluate hitters. Traditional stats that normally should excite us were pretty ordinary. The speed and glove are there. I don’t think he has shown that his bat will work in the majors and that is probably why he wasn’t left available for the rule 5. Last year was only season in his last three where he had a wRC+ over 100 for the season. His 86 wRC+ in 2022 at AA was not close to projecting as a useful major league hitter. He followed it up with a wRC+ of 123 over a long stretch repeating AA last year. He then struggled in AAA with a below league average bat (wRC+ of 93) . He needs sustained success in AAA to show he has a passable bat in the majors.
  24. jorgenswest
    If Canterino shows that he can be a late inning reliever he needs to be in the pen at the expense of one of the older relievers. He needs to claim one of the top 6 spots though. The back of the pen will get inconsistent work and he will need that consistent work.
  25. jorgenswest
    I wonder if there will be a wave of signings for the lower tier free agents as teams open up roster spots with the 60 day IL moves.
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