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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    The Twins are average or above at most positions or have players who are set at a position. The exceptions are LF (but Wallner deserves to be given the starting job) and pitching. It hard to improve this team without paying a huge price either in trades or free agency. The cost of good pitching has hit the stratosphere and acquiring a front level starter is a huge overpay. I am not sure the Twins are in a position to take the risk of overpaying in prospects. Last year’s signing (Correa) and extension (Buxton) do have an impact on the roster flexibility. The Twins just signed Niki Goodrum to a minor league deal to provide infield depth. This possibly means that Farmer and/or Polanco are being traded. From this perspective not signing Kenta Maeda seems like a missed opportunity as he was responsibly priced and given his TJ, Covid, and how the Dodgers used him, did not have a lot of innings on his arm. Normally when the market is in overpay, it is best to be a seller. Unfortunately the Twins probably need to be buyers in this market and the players who they ideally would like to move have limited value. This is also where the lack of present value from the Berrios trade (Simon Woods Richardson) and the Jorge Lopez trade really bite.
  2. Eris
    Most frustrating was the lack of situational awareness to the hitting. When the bases are loaded with 2 outs, a single is a game changer. I think looking at SO vs HR is not a fine enough statistic. Run efficiency with RISP and 2 outs is probably what matters most (and how SO negatively impact that). looking at the top 30 fWAR players in 2023, only 5 had more than 25% K rate. Almost half of the Twins players had a K% > 25%. I am not sure I buy into SO don’t matter philosophy.
  3. Eris
    The real challenge in giving up a potentially very good hitter for pitching is that the FO can be right in their assessment but are an injury away from being a lopsided losing trade. Although these injuries happen with position players they are more likely to occur with pitchers. The question then is how to structure such a trade so that even in the worst case scenario the long term consequences for the team are minimal. I think Tampa does a lot of things correct in roster management. They mostly seem to be able to trade pitchers on expiring contracts and get exceptionally good value in return.
  4. Eris
    This is so true. The average cable bill as a result of sports bundling was $20/customer. Of course spread over the entire customer base. $100/month bills has led to the current cable cutting. If 1/3 (I think this number is high) of the households are sports watchers, The unbundled sports would need to charge users $60 or more / month to maintain the services. Very few people would pay that amount of money. I think the MLB streaming service is illustrative. It is slightly more than $20/month with local teams being blacked out. I live in NJ a can watch most of the Twins games. I would not pay $20/month if I could not watch the Twins. Even at the current price, I am thinking of switching to radio as I watch more than than half the games on the radio anyway.
  5. Eris
    I have not understood why Christian Vázquez’s contract is considered bad. Granted his offensive production was expected to be better, but he delivered 1 fWAR, which is about the average free agent cost/WAR.
  6. Eris
    The plan was to develop a pitching pipeline. Given the cost of acquiring pitching (both via trade and free agency) seems that the original plan is still the way to go.
  7. Eris
    The Rule 5 requirement is the player taken must remain on the active roster for a minimum of 90 days. This is from mlb.com. edited to add, from a 2017 article the 90 day roster requirement can be extended to the following season. https://theupsetsports.com/the-rule-5-draft-how-does-that-work/
  8. Eris
    One of the challenges with Steven Matz is that he has not put together 2 good seasons in a row.
  9. Eris
    Not sure about the why’s behind statistics but Fangraphs has Maeda at 5.2 WAR and Gaterol at 2.9 WAR since the trade.
  10. Eris
    No to a trade. There were only about 8-10 outfielders who were better in 2023 both offensively and defensively than Max Kepler. Getting an upgrade on both sides of the ball will not be easy.
  11. Eris
    I agree with your assessment, because of injuries it seems at times the Twins struggle to put together a decent outfield. The general theme of the article is that the Twins need a RH bat. I don’t necessarily agree with that as what Twins really need is for the RH bats on their roster to perform (Correa, Miranda, Buxton). However, one of the drivers for this theme is that up and down the farm system our top outfielders are LH bats. My suggestion was that we trade one of these LH hitting outfielders for an equivalent RH outfielder. Not that we trade an outfielder for a 1B.
  12. Eris
    Adding a right handed bat is difficult from a roster construction. The Twins have plenty of RH bats on the 40 man. Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Ryan, Lewis are all capable HR threats, that 3 or more as Lewis was also out for awhile of these individuals were injured or otherwise had poor seasons is the real problem. Can they swing a trade of one of their surplus outfielders (Larnach e.g.) for an equivalent RH bat.
  13. Eris
    I’m not understanding why the Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades are excluded. Without looking these up there is also Sam Dyson, Michael Fulmer, Kenta Maeda, Chris Paddock.
  14. Eris
    I agree with your assessment. The outfield is average to slightly above average. However, upgrading from this via a trade is not so easy. If you take Kepler as an example there are only about 10 outfielders who have both better offensive and defensive metrics than Max Kepler. (Data is from Fangraphs) It may take a significant package to acquire someone better than Kepler on both sides of the ball. Our best hope for OF improvement is internally. If the criteria is improvement in either offense or defense, but not both, than that is much easier to achieve.
  15. Eris
    In an article about ownership penny-pinching, one could conclude that many of the $$ spent last season did not contribute to the team’s on field performance. Add in the $10+ million on both Gallo and Vasquez and it is easy to see why ownership might be asking the FO “what did I get for my money last year. “
  16. Eris
    Kepler, Castro and Wallner had WRC+ above league average. Larnach was close to average with a WRC+ = 99. This is without Buxton. Granted, the defense is not elite. Data is from Fangraphs. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=8 By team OF, the Twins were slightly above average, 11th or 12th depending on which metrics are used. The OF position most in need of upgrading from 2023 is CF. Because of uncertainty surrounding Buxton, this also the most difficult to manage. There is also uncertainty with regards to Kepler and Wallner maintaining this past year’s production. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&pos=of&qual=150&team=0%2Cts&sortcol=21&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
  17. Eris
    One of the challenges the Twins have is that they are above average at most positions and therefore it is hard to improve the team via trades (except possibly by adding a starting pitcher, and that also comes with risks). The players most discussed in moving (Polanco and Kepler) will not bring a decent MLB ready pitcher. Unless we get lucky as in the trade that brought Joe Ryan.
  18. Eris
    I think one of the challenges in assessing the value of Trevor Larnach is that he has not been able to stay healthy.
  19. Eris
    Not meaning for this comment to take anything away from Texas, but Fangraphs have Dusty Baker an F for his in game management. One of the reasons was for continually using the same 3 relievers until they were out of gas. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alcs-managerial-report-card-dusty-baker/
  20. Eris
    The Twins as a team need to consistently take quality at bats to advance to the next level. I don’t remember the exact numbers, but in a radio broadcast it was mentioned that the Twins lose about 2/3 of the games where the have more than 10 Ks.
  21. Eris
    Agree with everything you have written about Royce Lewis. It has been quite awhile since the Twins have had a player who could repeatedly rise to the occasion and elevate their game when it is most needed.
  22. Eris
    Could someone please comment on the defensive aspect of Prato and Helman’s game. Neither Gordon or Castro are above average defensively.
  23. Eris
    Another factor is that Brooks Lee does not need to be put on the 40 man roster this year. That is one less player that can be protected from the rule 5 draft.
  24. Eris
    I thought Blayne Enlow throws RH.
  25. Eris
    Royce Lewis is having a better season than Gunnar Henderson, who is the top candidate for AL RoY. Lewis has a better OPS (910 vs 823) WRC+ (150 vs 124) and BA (0.302 vs 0.257). The major difference is that Henderson has 502 plate appearances vs 202 for Lewis (about 2.5x more). In cumulative stats Henderson leads. HR (26 vs 14) RBI (76 vs 50) fWAR (4.2 vs 2.1). There offensive vs defensive splits are about the same in that both are offensive first player but not a liability on defense. Lewis should be in the discussion as a RoY candidate. He is clearly out playing Gunnar Henderson and should be given more consideration for RoY. Current AL Rookie of the Year Odds: (from Bleacher Report) Gunnar Henderson -215 Masataka Yoshida +330 Triston Casas +400 Tanner Bibee +1500 Josh Jung +7500 Esteury Ruiz/Royce Lewis/Edouard Julien +10000
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