That trade has the Mets sending out 3 players making $26M. The Mets are paying the penalty so they actually cost them at least $9M more than that. Gallo doesn't have to end up with the Mets but he needs to go somewhere else if the Twins are adding that much payroll.
Okay, but adding Canha, Robertson and Raley could help. Send out Gallo, Ronny Henriquez, and an A-ball pitcher like Lewis, Culpepper, Nowlin or Hidalgo
I think the Mets are a good fit. They have RH batting outfielders (Pham and Canha) and relievers (Robertson and Raley). They would probably take Gallo in return to make the money work.
How much time did you spend practicing defense every day? By not playing CF they are having Buxton avoid that time he spent practicing defense every day. He might be healthy enough to play CF for the length of a game but they would want him to practice defense every day in preparation for that. He's not healthy enough to spend the time every day practicing defense in CF.
I could argue that Julien was a "Sabato" - an all-bat player who looked great as a sophomore. Same with Wallner. Encarnacion-Strand was definitely a "Sabato" type player. They can't stop taking power bats just because one didn't pan out. Same with toolsy high school players like Cavaco. There isn't a chance to draft Brooks Lee every year.
I think this is the best way to evaluate the trade. Did they pick the right prospect return from all the available trade packages? We can't really know that unless we know the alternatives.
This year is mostly irrelevant to evaluating the trade. In 2022 Berrios was awful for the Blue Jays. Simply dumping Berrios '2022 $10.7M salary and 72 ERA+ production was a net win for the Twins. I don't know if the Twins would have tendered a contract to Berrios in 2023 after how poorly he pitched in 2022.
The winner of the Berrios trade was Jose Berrios. He found a team willing to pay him the big bucks on a contract extension. Since the trade he's produced 1.9 WAR for $26M. That has net negative value so anything they get from the prospects is a bonus.
48% of the ticket revenue is shared to the central pool. The Twins are a below average revenue team so they receive more than they put in. Each additional dollar that comes in gets offset by the Twins getting less money from the central pool.
Let's make the math easy - Twins get $100M, they share $48M and keep $52M. They're slightly below average revenue so let's say they get $52M back from the pool. That gives them $104M in revenue.
Now let's say they have a winning season and make $110M, they share $53M, keep $57M but still only get $52M back from the central pool because their extra $5M in pooled revenue is offset by someone else's drop of $5M (someone wins and someone else loses every year). That gives them $109M in revenue. Each additional dollar only nets them 50 cents.
Here's the real drag - now the Twins are a net contributor to the pool so they don't get the perks that come with being a revenue sharing recipient - draft pick compensation for Sonny Gray is not as good, they lose a higher draft pick if they sign a free agent who rejected a QO and they can't be in the draft lottery in 2024 because they moved up in the draft in 2023. They could also move from Competitive balance round A to round B.