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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Trying to win costs money but it also brings in attendance. When the A's weren't able to receive revenue sharing they had no choice but to try to win to bring in attendance. When MLB gave them revenue sharing money they lost the incentive to win and instead focused on reducing payroll to get a guaranteed profit. When a team receives revenue sharing money any additional revenue through ticket sales and in-person attendance reduces the amount received. This is a financial disincentive to generate revenue locally. It's a direct case study on economic incentives. It proves that MLB's revenue sharing formula needs to change to incentivize teams to increase local attendance. If not, teams like the Pirates and A's will be content to be the Washington Generals of MLB existing so the Dodgers and Yankees have someone to beat.
  2. DJL44
    And they stopped trying to win as soon as MLB took away their restrictions and made them a revenue sharing recipient again. Details On The Athletics' Revenue-Sharing Status - MLB Trade Rumors
  3. DJL44
    MLB as a whole makes over $1B more from broadcasting and advertising revenue than it does from gate receipts and concessions. It's nearly a 60/40 split with 60% of the money coming from broadcasting, licensing, etc and 40% from in-person attendance.
  4. DJL44
    Good example. I think part of the problem is they moved him back to the rotation at age 34. They might have been better off with Aguilera in the rotation in 1990 instead of David West.
  5. DJL44
    More important, the Reds games are on TV in Dayton, Lexington and Columbus. TV money dwarfs ticket revenue.
  6. DJL44
    The A's aren't trying to win. They make more money losing than winning.
  7. DJL44
    Here are the options for DirectTV and the Twins 1) Don't pay Diamond Sports, lose all of your subscribers to streaming 2) Pay Diamond Sports a little less than before because games are available on Amazon Prime. Lose some of your subscribers to streaming. There is no option available where they get exclusive rights and keep all of their current subscribers. That business model is dead. The bundlers are only going to survive if they can bundle everything for less than it costs a la carte. Bundled packages will become a niche market for hotels and people with bad internet connections.
  8. DJL44
    It depends on how bad it is but if I think Varland is a better option in the rotation than Duran I'd move him back to the bullpen by the end of May. He's not pitching for the Pirates where they can afford to give him a whole season to find out.
  9. DJL44
    There is always injury risk. He's essentially trying to get out of it with speed every time he pitches now. Wouldn't it be better for him to dial it back to 97 MPH instead of going max effort every outing? In the end the reason to keep him in the bullpen may be that Duran is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He does not have good control and doesn't hit spots but it doesn't matter because batters have a hard enough time hitting his stuff when he leaves it middle-middle. That works at 101 MPH but won't at 97 MPH. Letting him find that out and fail might actually make him better in the long run.
  10. DJL44
    Ace starters have no problem working out of the bullpen. See John Smoltz, Dennis Eckersley, Derek Lowe, etc, etc, etc. I don't necessarily trust that Bailey Ober will repeat his results in 2024. I would definitely trade Duran for Gilbert or Kirby of Seattle. You should always be willing to trade your closer for a legitimate top of the rotation starter. That's kind of the whole point of this article. If Duran could be a top of the rotation starter instead then they should move him to the rotation. There are questions about whether he can do it but you'll never know if you never try. I don't really care about WPA. It is a totally meaningless garbage statistic.
  11. DJL44
    If he goes bust in a few weeks you move him back to the bullpen where he has been very good. If he doesn't go bust you have a potential CYA candidate. I see very little downside risk.
  12. DJL44
    He'd still give you 2.5 to 3 times the innings in the rotation. Leverage is like a 10-20% multiplier, it doesn't double or triple the value of innings.
  13. DJL44
    By that logic all of the ace starting pitchers in MLB should be converted to relievers so they can improve their WPA.
  14. DJL44
    They weren't all signed in the same year. I was just pointing out that 5 years later expect that only 2 of these signings matter. Player Name / Signing Year Emmanuel Rodriguez 2019 Danny De Andrade 2020 Jose Rodriguez 2022 Ricardo Olivar 2019 Yasser Mercedes 2022 Yunior Severino 2016 (ATL, signed by the Twins in 2017)
  15. DJL44
    I would try Duran in the rotation. A top of the rotation starter is always worth more than a reliever.
  16. DJL44
    DirectTV doesn't have any Twins games at the moment. If the games aren't exclusive, they will pay Diamond Sports less to air them. How much is that exclusivity worth? $10M? The Twins could take the Brewers TV deal, subtract $10M and call it done for this season.
  17. DJL44
    The Red Sox should be looking to trade relievers Martin and Jansen but they might get a better return at the deadline when half the contract is paid down. The Twins won't want to pay the price for either of them. Looking over the Red Sox roster I think Nick Gordon for Rob Refsnyder could work but that's hardly a blockbuster deal. Nick Pivetta is a great fit for the Twins rotation on a 1 year $7.5M deal before he reaches free agency. When he's good, he's very good. If he puts together a consistently good season he could be worth a qualifying offer. That's who I'd ask about.
  18. DJL44
    Keep Vazquez. He makes all the pitchers better.
  19. DJL44
    Part of that reason was the $500M Sinclair took from them that is now being paid back in a legal settlement.
  20. DJL44
    That's still an option. MLB could broadcast games on MLB Network and MLB.tv. They can probably still get more money as a tent pole program as the major streamers fight for audience. The streamer in that case isn't looking to turn a profit on baseball games but instead use that audience to market their other offerings. I would imagine MLB games on Amazon Prime would feature a lot of ads for other Amazon products.
  21. DJL44
    This overall negotiation between Diamond, Amazon and MLB is clearly slowing down the Twins TV negotiations. In the end it makes sense to have one home for cable/satellite and another for streaming. If Amazon Prime is the home for MLB streaming for most teams I'd be fine with that.
  22. DJL44
    There are tradeoffs a catcher has to make between framing, blocking and controlling the running game. Jeffers does not have an elite arm and no amount of practice is going to change that at this point. That means with runners on base he will have to sacrifice framing for pop time. The larger bases may explain why his framing numbers dropped last season. Also, if a catcher is trying to frame the low pitch they will probably not be as good at blocking it. When you decide whether a catcher is good or bad at controlling the running game it is important to look at the number of stolen bases allowed as well as the percentage caught. A catcher can be good at controlling the running game if only the most elite base stealers make attempts. It's also important to look at the pitching staff and how good they are at holding runners. Winder, for example, is not good at holding runners which gives the runner a jump several feet more than most pitchers. In the end I think Jeffers is basically an average MLB defender behind the plate and his value will be determined by his bat and his playing time.
  23. DJL44
    Part of this is Scott Boras. He tends to get his free agents signed one at a time in priority order.
  24. DJL44
    I am also not convinced that we are measuring the impact of pitch framing correctly. We don't measure at-bats on a pitch-by-pitch basis giving the hitter credit for each ball they take or strike they miss, we only measure the result of the at-bat. I have a hard time believing Jeffers was that bad when the pitching staff led the league in strikeouts.
  25. DJL44
    5 years later and only Emmanuel Rodriguez and Ricardo Olivar make a top 40 prospect list. Malfrin Sosa washed out in 2022.
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