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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Royce, go to the movies instead.
  2. DJL44
    For 2024 you'll be better off with Lewis at 3B and Martin in CF than you would be with Lewis in CF and Lee at 3B. Lee isn't as ready for the big leagues as Martin is.
  3. DJL44
    I'm actually in favor of keeping Royce away from ice.
  4. DJL44
    And yet international pitchers aren't
  5. DJL44
    I doubt it. Rosario wasn't the best LF on the market. I think it's more like Urshela last season. They'll get something about as valuable as what they traded to get Farmer, which wasn't that much.
  6. DJL44
    Farmer might be the #1 SS in free agency if he was non-tendered. He is very tradeable.
  7. DJL44
    There is a 0.8% chance of a first round bye. Not impossible but very unlikely. They have to win 5 more games than the Astros in 12 games. If the Astros go 6-6 the Twins need to go 11-1. Once the Twins clinch (likely against the Angels) we will know if there is any chance at all.
  8. DJL44
    Play him enough that he keeps his timing when batting. No day games after night games. I would plan on resting him 9/20, 9/22 (with an off day between), 9/28 and 10/1.
  9. DJL44
    Taylor should definitely be able to find two years from a different team. The free agent CF market is very weak.
  10. DJL44
    After this season we can add Bally Sports Network to the list.
  11. DJL44
    I think they're drafting well but haven't been getting much out of international free agency. They have been particularly bad at acquiring pitching through international free agency.
  12. DJL44
    The average number of successful draft picks per team per year is 1.5. That's measuring success by getting a pick who contributes more than someone you could get off the waiver wire for free. Producing 15 players every 5 years is well above average.
  13. DJL44
    I'll take the other side of that bet
  14. DJL44
    If the A's get approval to move to Las Vegas then we can finally prepare for expansion.
  15. DJL44
    Not really. He mentioned in the post-game radio interview that he's been working on specific zones, adjusting to where they have been getting him out. Making adjustments. He didn't wake up this morning and say "I should try hitting the ball instead of missing it!"
  16. DJL44
    All it takes is one extra-inning game to blow up that strategy.
  17. DJL44
    Are they really going to drop down to 11 pitchers? I keep thinking another pitcher would be more useful than Luplow.
  18. DJL44
    I think it's selection bias - it only shows up in the stats if the batter swings, which only happens on pitches batters want to hit. Batters walk a LOT on 3-1 counts but clearly they didn't get a good pitch to hit if it was a ball.
  19. DJL44
    Look at the cloud plots of balls and strikes. There are borderline pitches that are 50/50. That's a "close" pitch. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time or a ball 95% of the time is NOT a close pitch. Even a pitch that is a strike 60% of the time has an OBP of .400 on a full count.
  20. DJL44
    What's the all-time Saints record for strikeouts? He might get a shot at that one.
  21. DJL44
    Have you seen how many of his walks are on called 4th balls? (Hint, it's all of them). He is helping the team every time he gets on base with a walk. Hitters walk 50% of the time on a close pitch on a 3-2 count. If the ball is "close" it's a 50% chance to be called a ball or a strike. A pitch that is a strike 95% of the time isn't "close". I agree, you try to foul off nasty strikes but you don't expand the zone with a 3-2 count.
  22. DJL44
    It's pretty simple math. When you take a strike or swing and miss it doesn't get counted in the denominator on a 3-1 count but it does for a 3-2 count. Possible outcomes 3-1 = ball in play, walk, advance to a 3-2 count (which doesn't get counted in the batting average) Possible outcomes 3-2 = ball in play, walk, strikeout
  23. DJL44
    Then you would want Willi Castro in LF
  24. DJL44
    Expanding the zone in a 3-2 count is dumb, you can draw a walk 50% of the time on a "close" pitch. Expanding the zone in an 0-2 count is dumb, umpires usually tighten the zone in that count. So you're talking about how he hits 1-2 or 2-2. Julien's greatest strength as a batter is he doesn't chase pitches out of the zone. He doesn't hit the ball very well at the edges of the zone anyway. If he swings more often at those pitches he will be less effective - more strikeouts and double play balls, fewer walks and barrels.
  25. DJL44
    The problem there isn't when he takes, it's when he swings and makes contact. Add 200 points of batting average to his numbers and you get a slash line almost exactly like the Twins have as a team (.300 BA, 750 OBP). Taking a pitch 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average at all. Swing and miss on 3-1 doesn't affect your batting average either, it just advances the count to 3-2.
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