tony&rodney
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Everything posted by tony&rodney
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Six of the starters in the opening day lineup will be holdovers from before Falvey. That's fine. This is year seven and maybe we pay too much attention to how players are acquired. I have noticed that the Twins have increased their expenditures in the last five years, which may have allowed the team to acquire and keep players. That is a positive move. The process of development is pretty tough. A guy like Juan Soto, signed relatively inexpensively, can change the fortunes of any team. Can you imagine how a Julio Rodriguez would have impacted the Twins roster? Currently, the Twins seem to have a nice blend of veterans and young players.
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Gleeman & The Geek: Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez
tony&rodney replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The fact that Luis Arraez is a good hitter is pretty much not worth arguing about. Arraez is a good hitter. I believe this trade was in part a belief in those players sitting on the fence waiting for an opportunity and/or recovering from injury. All of Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, and perhaps Julien could more than cover for Arraez. Brooks Lee is coming as well. The gamble is that these guys step up and that Pablo Lopez simply repeats what he did for the Marlins. Lopez should be improved as well, which is a plus for the Twins. There is risk and this trade would seem to benefit both teams, not a bad thing. Salas and Chourio are future tickets that the Twins hope pay off. As an original subscriber to BaseballAmerica and a sicko follower of minor league players across baseball, Salas does carry promise and value because he has physical talent and baseball acumen. Like all prospects, development depends on a combination of talent, health, opportunity, and how the individual handles adversity. Salas projects positively in my viewpoint. In any event, the Arraez-Lopez +2 trade was a good trade for baseball as two teams will be improved due to the exchange.- 2 replies
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Keeping the Rolls Royce in the Garage
tony&rodney replied to Alex Boxwell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Each part makes a decision at a particular time that attempts to maximize production. Sometimes this works and sometimes it does not. 2023 is a new season and Byron Buxton is healthy once again. Let him play his game. It was reasonable to make numerous accommodations with how and when Buxton played last year due to injuries and availability on any given day. There isn't any reason today to repeat that practice. I doubt Falvey and Baldelli are going into the season with plans based on Buxton being injured and needing to be sat down on a frequent basis. -
Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year
tony&rodney replied to sun's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Your opinions are not unpopular. There are many posts that wrote about their high regard for Luis Arraez. You also were not in a vast minority because the trade was received with much trepidation by numerous people. The Twins and Marlins each felt their teams would be improved with this trade which in turn raised considerable negative reactions from both fan bases. The players understand that baseball is a business and both Lopez and Arraez took a positive approach to their next job location. Until or unless a player is a free agent, the choice of where to work is tenuous at best. I wish both players the best and feel the trade was an honest move to improve each team. Vegas has odds for each of your wagers if you really want to put some money in support of your distaste for the trade. It is entertainment, both baseball and gambling. I will be just enjoying the baseball and will also tune in to a number of Miami games to watch Luis Arraez continue to do his thing. -
Stewart and Jay didn't pan out, but the disappointment is connected to them being high round one picks. Cavaco was a gamble that has not worked thus far, while Sabato was a head scratcher. The Twins have drafted decently in the overall picture. We have to wait for the emergence of a number of players and that could be this year for Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, and Lee. Gordon could take another step forward as well. Finally, Sonny Gray tell us how much Petty was worth for now. All in all, pretty good drafts.
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Keeping the Rolls Royce in the Garage
tony&rodney replied to Alex Boxwell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Let him play - well said. -
Who Will Be the Twins' Opening Day DH?
tony&rodney replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I may be on an island but after watching Reynolds a dozen times last year I came away unimpressed. Reynolds is a good player but not a superstar. If we trade with Pittsburgh, I'm asking about Endy Rodriguez.- 60 replies
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2023 Prospect Previews: Brooks Lee
tony&rodney replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Brooks Lee has high marks for his arm and power but very high for his hit projection. He rarely strikes out and also has an excellent eye at the plate. Thus Lee has a high floor and his risk of not reaching the majors is lower than other draftees. One player mentioned in this post as an exciting prospect is a catcher, Kevin Parada. Parada carries a high mark for his batting and projects to have very good power. However, he is slow, lacks a decent arm, and will need significant gains behind the plate to avoid being a DH. Yordan Alvarez is an example of a young DH, but he is as good of a batter as there is in MLB and also plays a fair LF. A prospect who can field decently, carries a very high hit tool, and consistently hits the ball hard from both sides of the plate while being selective and difficult to strike out is rare. I think this why Brooks Lee is a prospect to follow. Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis (a more toolsy prospect) present the Twins with a pair of guys that could potentially create many problems for pitchers for the next decade. -
Who Will Be the Twins' Opening Day DH?
tony&rodney replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The DH spot sure looks like it may be based on what occurs in Spring Training. Guys like Martin, Larnach, and Wallner need to play consistently. Each might work if they prove themselves ready. Julien is someone the staff will be watching because if he gets real comfortable facing the best pitchers, using him as a DH won't stall his development. If I had to guess today, I would say Gordon and then Larnach.- 60 replies
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Profar would have been a good player to sign if the Twins had traded two of Larnach, Kepler, and Gordon (not a suggestion). The current roster does not improve with a Profar addition because he hits better LH and Garlick remains effective against lefties. I thought someone would sign Profar for 3/$27M. He doesn't fit right now as a Twin.
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Agree with all of those saying the time has come to let the talent come forth from our young players. They are ready.
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Rumor: Arraez turned down a Twins offer before last year
tony&rodney replied to sun's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Luis Arraez is a really good hitter. I believe he will improve in small ways and would be a tough out batting third in the Marlins lineup. I can see Arraez winning more batting titles. My constant plea was for the Twins to maneuver whatever pieces they could manage to wrestle Edward Cabrera and even (long shot) Jesus Luzardo away from the Marlins. I don't think the Marlins wanted to take that risk. The Twins pivoted and did well to hold strong for the two additional prospects plus Lopez. Miami was not going to listen on anyone other than Arraez. It was a good trade for both teams. Pablo Lopez is a really good pitcher, a true #2 on a playoff team. Like all pitchers the specter of injury will always hover. The Twins can use Sonny Gray out of the gate followed by Lopez. Most importantly, the Twins will put a competitive starting pitcher on the field in every game. This will pay off. The Twins have some good bats ready for their opportunity and the success of the team will depend on positive contributions from a couple of Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, and Larnach. These guys are ready in my opinion. Their time has come to show off their skills. The improvement of the starting staff takes some pressure off of the bats and despite how excellent Arraez was for the Twins, the guys up next are going to cover his loss even if it is in a different manner. -
Evaluating the Prospects in the Arraez/López Trade
tony&rodney replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
The Twins are counting on Alex Kirilloff to step forward this year, and I think he will.- 27 replies
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The Arraez-Lopez trade seemed inevitable for about the last month but the conversations started in 2022. Miami took a hard stand at some point with the Twins and narrowly focused on Luis Arraez as the must have player in any trade. I suspect a fair number of names were exchanged. I was hoping for a wider trade that included Edward Cabrera or just an acquisition of Cabrera. The Marlins were only interested in Arraez and the Twins felt that Cabrera was too much of a risk in exchange for Arraez. Thus it is Lopez for Arraez and the Twins also managed to also acquire two fair prospects. It's tough to lose Arraez but pitching is the main currency in MLB. The Twins look more solid with the current pitching staff today. There will be significant eyes on Alex Kirilloff and others who were either injured or underperformed last year. If the Twins were correct on their evaluations of players like Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Gordon, Larnach, Kepler, and Gallo the offense should be solid. I expect Royce Lewis to contribute this season, starting in late June. Finally, we should all keep an eye on Julien to see if his bat is ready for MLB.
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What the Recent Number Changes can Tell Us
tony&rodney commented on Greggory Masterson's blog entry in Brewed in the Trough
Miranda needs a new number. -
2023 Prospect Previews: Brooks Lee
tony&rodney replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Not very high on Parada. I doubt any move would take place where he is traded by the Mets for Kepler, which would be all the Twins would offer. Maybe the Twins don't even do that trade because Kepler is useful now whereas Parada is not. -
This seems like the rational decision but the price for Cabrera (or Luzardo, etc.) may be much higher by July. Both teams could likely benefit from a trade but the question of which players is a very difficult one for each club. My best guess is that a gamble now is the ticket for October but I'm just guessing like everyone else. I would say that Arraez is the only sure thing, which should mean his value is higher than any of the other players discussed.
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Rocco Baldelli; The Perfect Modern Manager
tony&rodney commented on Nick Hanzlik's blog entry in Twins on Wheat; Add Mayo
Dusty Baker understands and uses analytics extensively. He has spoken about this before in several interviews. There is a time to play the odds and there is a time to play the game in front of you. Francona has also talked about this same topic - when to use and when to ignore analytics. While it is more pervuasive in the game today, numbers have always been a part of the game. This is why guys like Baker and Francona are comfortable managing the game still. The post is about Baldelli, who is an emerging manager, one who appears to be very tightly tied to the game plan. Perhaps he doesn't have as free of a hand as a vet like Francona or Baker. -
2023 Prospect Previews: Brooks Lee
tony&rodney replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
If Brooks Lee plays the field with average skills his bat could push him to Target Field this summer. That is super optimistic for sure, but he does profile as a rock steady player. I believe he was passed over by some teams in the draft because the guys ahead of him are super athletic with the potential to become superstars. Keoni Cavaco is such a player, which is why he was drafted by the Twins. Luckily, Lee fell to the Twins and he looks like a player that can start for the Twins for a dozen years and be very productive with his bat while playing a very good third base. -
Trade Target: Twins Should Say "Hello" to Adell
tony&rodney replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The trade would need to be after the Twins put a couple of guys on the 60 day IL. It is a good idea worth a prospect outside of our top guys, maybe Enlow. Hard to say what the Angels see as fair value for Adell. -
Fun with Player Comps- Middle Infield Edition
tony&rodney commented on Hans Birkeland's blog entry in Hansblog
Best case for Jorge Polanci is .... Jorge Polanco in odd numbered years. -
The roster is not set yet. We need to wait until March 29 to make our predictions.
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Pablo Lopez simply rates higher than any current Twins starter. That said, he has just two years of control remaining. The guys with multiple years of control (more than two) to look at are Cabrera and Luzardo. They also project as better than what the Twins currently have in their rotation. On the other hand, all of Arraez, Miranda, Kepler, Larnach, and Jeffers would be big pickups for the Marlins. NO, not all of them. The Marlins and Twins match up nicely for a trade and fans of both teams will find fault if it occurs, when their favorite player is moved.
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Arraez is still improving as a baseball player and batsman. Miami is correct to target Luis but the Twins are right to be stubborn in their demands. That said, i do believe that both teams would benefit from a trade. The Twins need to take the gamble on the unproven starters with tremendous potential, while the Marlins get a sure thing to boost their offense. Arraez, Larnach, and two players not on the 40 person roster (Urbina, Miller) for Cabrera and Luzardo is my current deal. I would miss Arraez and Larnach, but I'm hoping for a breakout from Cabrera and Luzardo that pushes the Twins into post season baseball. Miami would also be a more balanced team.
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How Bad Did the Twins Need Andrew McCutchen?
tony&rodney replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
McCutcheon was never going to happen unless he was still unsigned in mid March and the Twins felt a need at that time.- 12 replies
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