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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    “The key to the Twins offseason is Buxton’s Health” Really? For the sixth year in a row that’s the key?? Just cross our fingers and hope he becomes good offensively over the coarse of a full season and also available over a full season? Not one, but TWO things he’s almost never done? When, if ever, do we acknowledge he’s no longer the best or most valuable player on the team? The team has been better with him in the past…but that’s the past…they certainly weren’t better with him last year. And it makes zero sense to wish and hope that that’s going to reverse coarse in a significant and lasting way as the physical issues pile up and he heads deeper into his 30’s. Let’s find some starting pitching. A bat, and a new center fielder. Buxton will find plenty of playing time if available. But, if the success of 2024 is riding on his performance and availability, let’s fire the FO now. I refuse to accept Buxton’s issues being a source for coulda/shoulda nonsense for yet another season. I might be a fool, but I’m not THAT much of a fool.
  2. jkcarew
    Don’t think you can hang it completely on the shoulder. He was really bad right from the beginning…well before he missed any time with the shoulder. But the main point is, given the mixed/short track record, and his health, in 2024 he shouldn’t be considered as a first-choice at any position for a team that truly wants to compete for a pennant, IMO. Depth piece only in 2024…hopefully.
  3. jkcarew
    Last year, Miranda established himself as a well-below-average AAA hitter. Maybe he figures it out eventually, but he’s not knocking on the 2024 door in any way shape or form…and seems highly questionable even as a prospect given how far the bat is from where it would need to play at 1B and/or DH. The only current motivation to ‘clear a path’ for Miranda would be to save money.
  4. jkcarew
    The ‘67 team probably should be in the top 10…even if it would knock out one of the division-winning clubs. No divisions in 1967. 2nd place in the American League. And actually won the season series against Boston 11-7. But, 2 of those 7 losses were the difference in the season-ending series at Fenway. 4 Hall-of Famers…5 guys in the top 20 for MVP. Cesar Tovar credited with appearing in 163 games…at least 6 games played at 6 different positions. Oh…and the first year I attended a Twins game. (Not that that factors into my ranking whatsoever 😉)
  5. jkcarew
    To believe these trade values for Jeffers would be to believe other teams value him more than the Twins do (or at least more than Rocco does). Rocco clearly valued Jeffers less as a catcher than he did Vasquez…playing Jeffers more than 150 innings less than Vasquez at the position…even despite Vasquez being a perpetual black hole offensively. I realize Jeffers cost/control/age add to his trade value, but I don’t think it adds up to what is generally depicted in these proposals.
  6. jkcarew
    He’s someone who was good at the high-A level at age 20. That’s great. But it’s not like he dominated. Struggled with K’s…improved as the season progressed to get his K rate just under 30% by year end. My sense from watching him on MiLB is that the defense would probably play ok. But the bat isn’t ready for major league pitching. Also, he has some moments where it seems like there could be some maturity issues. (None of this is a knock on him…he’s 20) To take that player and have him jump all the way to every-day center-fielder in the majors, would be something the 2021 Detroit Tigers might have done. It’s a total tank/rebuild move. Maybe, Longenhagen thinks that the payroll issues are such that the FO will be willing (or ‘forced’) to go directly from competing in 2023 to a tank/reset in 2024?
  7. jkcarew
    The Twins need a quality STARTING center-fielder, not a back-up. Why would Buxton’s health (as reported) heading into a season even matter? It never has. SOMETIMES, it impacts which two-thirds of the season he misses…that’s about it. Hope is wonderful. It’s not a plan.
  8. jkcarew
    I don’t think it’s complicated, or surprising. With Gray…you’re not going to lock into yet another (Buxton, Correa) $25M+ salary on a $100M-and-change payroll. And with Maeda, at this stage of his career, FO doesn’t see enough delta between him and the cheaper (and younger) guys they already have.
  9. jkcarew
    Clueless. Not a good look for Fangraphs.
  10. jkcarew
    Don’t profile similarly defensively at all. Gallo is generally good defensively…and plays the outfield. Severino is generally NOT good and plays the infield. Severino wouldn’t have a sliver of the defensive value Gallo provided. Meanwhile, we can HOPE that Severino could be more valuable offensively than Gallo.
  11. jkcarew
    I’m on board with a quality right-handed 1B/DH bat. That would go a long way toward improving/stabilizing the offense. Gotta pretend that Buxton doesn’t exist (other than the contract…sigh). He’s not a great DH regardless. Also, there’s a difference between shoulder surgery being “medically” successful, and shoulder surgery that restores the ability to hit major league pitching at a high level without regression or reinjury. Kirilloff remains a house of cards, until he proves otherwise. Meanwhile, Miranda did nothing to re-establish himself in St. Paul…in fact, he did the opposite of that.
  12. jkcarew
    Good post. Also…you need to change your handle 😀
  13. jkcarew
    True. But he was still significantly less awful offensively than expected..primarily due to the surprisingly decent SLG.
  14. jkcarew
    Rosario coming around a bit. Now with 3 HR…tied (with many) for 2nd in the league.
  15. jkcarew
    Wishful. Maybe. Not something I’d count on when constructing the 2024 roster, though.
  16. jkcarew
    Hate to say it, but Kiriloff is entering the Buxton category of “can’t count on him to be a contributor”. Sad.
  17. jkcarew
    You’re probably right. But his career OBP is 300, below league average…and his career OPS+ is 106, marginally better than league average. Next year will be his 10th year in the league. Whatever the ‘reasons’ are for the muted offensive results, they’re not at all likely to go away at this point.
  18. jkcarew
    Camargo (if they sign him), Martin, Rodriguez, Severino. I would think Severino would be drafted if not protected. IMO, he warrants a spot to see how/if he develops further. The power is too good…and he’s a switch-hitter whose RH splits are very good…something that is not that common (albeit, with the high K%). FWIW, he seems to provide SOME defensive flexibility…3B, 2B, 1B. Meanwhile, Polanco is starting to break down, Kiriloff and Miranda are question marks. I would think the log jambs at these positions will be addressed in the offseason. We’ll see. Don’t know how realistic it is that any of these names would be included in trades BEFORE the draft?
  19. jkcarew
    Maybe. But using Theilbar in the 4th was the wrong move, IMO. I’m not using my 5th (6th?) best option in an elimination game, with a day off to follow…no matter what arm he throws with. Exception being an Alvarez AB with 2-out. In that situation the risk/reward is probably worth it, since he is not required to start the next inning. If one of our right-handers comes on there and ‘only’ gives up a HR to Alvarez leading off, we’re better off. IMO Rocco has to manage the game in that spot believing that a solo HR by Alvarez in the 4th inning of a tie game isn’t going to beat you…and simply pitch one of his better arms. Doesn’t guarantee better results, but it’s a way better approach, IMO. The lack of offense is what doomed us, though…obviously.
  20. jkcarew
    If he doesn’t hit enough to add value at DH…then he’s not going to add relevant value at 1B, either. For those that say/think he’s an all-star hitter when healthy (I don’t)…do you really think 1B is going to keep him healthy? The best plan by far is to build a roster that ignores him as a starting option entirely. If he becomes an option health/ability-wise, there will be opportunities via injuries and underperformance elsewhere on the roster for him to return to relevance. Sad…and expensive, but it’s the right path forward.
  21. jkcarew
    It was a high-floor, low ceiling club from the start. I think they came pretty close to their ceiling…so a successful year for sure. They figured to have trouble scoring…and that came to fruition…despite a fairly decent run in the second half. With Rocco, it may be tough for our best players to be left-handed bats…they just don’t figure to play as much. Lee’s a switch-hitter, as is Severino. Lewis and Martin are righties. There are reasons for optimism…especially Lewis. If he can stay healthy, it’s his team.
  22. jkcarew
    I think February is a lock. March too.
  23. jkcarew
    I don’t think you can even begin to put Buxton in the same category as Correa in terms of career accomplishments. Buxton has qualified for a batting title ONE time in his entire career and was awful in brief post-season appearances. The ‘track records’ are worlds apart. Having said that, if Buxton is ready (if there is such a thing with him anymore), you add him…and then come into 2024 with a good CF plan that does not rely on Buxton.
  24. jkcarew
    The only downside I see right now… me, having to go out and buy one of those god-awful “M” hats.
  25. jkcarew
    I’m pretty sure we’ll see the best version of the Houston Astros in at least one of these two games at home. They’ve been phenomenal on the road all season. Doesn’t mean the Twins can’t beat them, though. I doubt the Twins fear Verlander as much as we do. It will be tough for him to duplicate Game 1’s performance regardless of when or if we see him again. Just play the game boys!
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