Twins Video
A changing of the guard is not just underway, but nearing completion for the Minnesota Twins. In the past three years we've seen the makeup and personality of this team overhauled entirely. It's pretty wild to look back, for example, at photos from the event that took place in November of 2022 where the Twins' new branding and uniforms were unveiled.
The players featured during this marketing showcase were, at the time, framed as the present core and future foundation of the franchise: Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Jhoan Duran, Luis Arraez. The latter three have been traded. José Miranda, also presented as part of the team's core identity, has sadly sunken to sub-mediocre depths in Triple-A and will likely be moving on in the offseason.
I remember the buzz from that event that players among this group were FaceTiming with Carlos Correa, still in the early stages of his free-agency odyssey that ended with a stunning to return to Minnesota. From that point, he became a chief figurehead of the Twins' identity, both internally and externally. The future looked bright, and only brighter one year later when they celebrated their first postseason win in two decades. We all know what happened next.
Of the players who were featured in the rebranding promo materials, only Buxton and Joe Ryan remain — Buxton due sheer loyalty, and Ryan because the front office couldn't find the right deal in deadline trade talks, which they'll almost surely revisit in the offseason. While Buxton is beloved and finally getting more of the recognition he deserves, he's also turning 32 this offseason with about a decade of MLB tenure. For better or worse, he's largely associated with the "old guard."
With their fan base demoralized and starving for hope, the Twins need to prop up a new face of the franchise: a singular player who represents the credible promise of superstardom, capable of leading the next contending core. Some might argue Luke Keaschall can be that player based on the amazing start to his career; with all due respect to his game, I don't think he is quite on that level of talent.
Walker Jenkins, though, looks up to the task. He's not a good prospect. He's not a great prospect. He's a potentially generational prospect. Very few players who've come through the Minnesota Twins system have earned such a billing, and the track record for those that have is pretty good.
When you take everything into account — minor-league numbers, rate of progression, rankings from local and national sources — there's a good case to be made that Jenkins is among the top three Twins prospects of this century, alongside Joe Mauer and Buxton.
Jenkins, who turns 21 next February, was promoted to Triple-A last week. Aaron Gleeman wrote at The Athletic about the rarity of this achievement; even Buxton and Mauer did not advance to the highest level this quickly. While it guarantees nothing, the distinction of logging significant Triple-A time at age 20 tends to be a very favorable indicator for the future.
"Triple-A action at 20 has basically meant a 50/50 shot of being an All-Star," Gleeman explained. "That includes MVP winners Mike Trout, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Andrew McCutchen, plus Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Ketel Marte, Adam Jones, Junior Caminero and Riley Greene."
Is he the real deal? You never know. But the signs are all there and Jenkins is now tantalizingly close to the big leagues. This feels like the right moment in time for an all-in commitment. For a good approximation of how this might play out in practice, simply look across the border to Milwaukee.
In December of 2023, the Brewers signed a 19-year-old Jackson Chourio — viewed at the time as a consensus top-10 prospect in the game — to an eight-year contract worth $82 million. Not only did this make an emphatic statement about Chourio's place at the heart of Milwaukee's go-forward brand, while offering the potential for big long-term cost savings, but it also negated any service-time implications, and any compulsion to avoid having Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster.
Chourio was the Brewers' starting right fielder for the season opener. He went on to produce an excellent season, producing 3.9 fWAR in 148 games to finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting while even earning down-ballot MVP votes. This year he's once again been great and the Brewers are once again in first place, viewed by many as the best team in baseball.
I'm not saying it's going to go quite so swimmingly for the Twins. The Brewers were in a much better place to begin with, and in fairness, there are plenty of other examples of long-term deals inked before a major-league debut — Jon Singleton, Evan White, Eloy Jiménez, Scott Kingery — but even in the worst cases the ultimate cost was relatively negligible, and the risk is nominal in the context of say, the $70 million that Minnesota just recouped by dumping Correa.
At this moment in time, I don't think it's appropriate for the Twins to ask their fans to wait and idly hope for better days. They need to take actions and accelerate the arrival of that future. They need to energize their lagging brand. Obviously the timeline must be dictated in part by Jenkins and his readiness — he is off to a slow start in Triple-A (1-for-20), albeit with solid strike zone control — but I don't see much reason to proceed conservatively or dink around with service-time shenanigans.
Lock up Jenkins this offseason and give him every chance to win a spot on the Opening Day roster next spring. Heck, consider giving him a cameo in the majors at the end of this season. Show fans that the future is now, and give them something to buy into after the front office completely sold out on the previous core.
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