Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

Where are the guys that can go multiple innings? This is where the Twins staff failed last year. Rocco burns these guys up one inning at a time daily. WE NEED REAL BRIDGE GUYS. Yanking starters after 4 and 5 KILLS bullpens full of one inning guys and that is what you have another collection of there.

Ober should be in the bullpen. There is ZERO need for Pagan. 

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They aren't pulling healthy good pitchers after 4 or 5 innings....They didn't last year, the year before, or the year before. I do agree, though, that with Maeda and Mahle, I'd like one bridge guy (Hoffman?) in the bullpen (not Ober, he's a legit starter). I'd prefer Ober start, and Maeda be in the pen (and just give him his starter bonus).

He will. You can take it to the bank. Rocco will not let his guys go 3 times through the order most nights. Maybe I watched a different season than you did. I understand if they are sitting at 5 complete and 75 pitches while giving up 0 or 1 runs.

If his starter is in the 4th or 5th inning and has completed 2 times through the order and given up more than 1 run, he pulls them pretty consistently. No matter which pitcher they were.

I just saw so many games be lost with last year when the Twins counted on 4-5 guys a night to be on their game most nights to win a ballgame.

7 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good, reasonable analysis, Nick. There are a lot of "ifs" in all bullpens, including the Twins' bullpen. But I think that is just the nature of baseball's most "volatile" position. Volatile is defined as, "liable to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse". Your point of management and the FO needing to be ready to make quick changes is insightful, in view of this definition. 

The most accurate way to project every bullpen in baseball is to assume they will all be average, with a few BIPs for the one's anchored by a reliable stud.

That's some paraphrasing of the great Tom Tango (IIRC).

The Twins are one of 8-10 teams that have that reliable stud anchoring it, making the top 10 projection understandable.

12 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I agree with you that all games have equal value.  BUT......   I think there is a reason why some people put more importance on games that are later in the season.  If the Twins were to lose 10 straight games in April, they would still have about 130 to 145 games to overcome this problem.  However, a 10-game losing streak in August or September would be very difficult to overcome.  So while every game counts equally, games later in the season  might appear to be more important.

When this issue comes up it makes me think of the 2017 Dodgers. They finished with a record of 104-58, but they had a stretch of losing 16 of 17 games overlapping August and September. It has to be one of the most incongruous stretches of play in baseball history. I wonder how things would have gone for them if they opened that season 1-16.

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Except for Pagan, I like the pen. I'll probably like it better once they start filtering in the former starters like Winder and Henriquez.

That's not to say I trust the pen, that'll never likely happen with me, but that's also why I don't like the idea of big ticket free agent relievers, I'd never trust them any more than the crapshoot free agent relievers, it's just an overall volatile position. Few guys are ever good for years on end. It's a rollercoaster for most, especially when changing teams.

But speaking of crapshoot free agent relievers, Jeff Hoffman is exactly the type that gets me interested. The guys who are one year removed from being a starter often break out. And if Brooks Baseball is accurate and his March velocity is 96+ MPH compared to his first year as a reliever when he was hitting 94 MPH, the Twins might have gotten a back-end reliever on the cheap.

One note on Pagan: I watched a video about Randy Johnson a few days ago. Johnson was notoriously wild in the first half of his career, until he got a golden tip from Nolan Ryan, who told him, don't land on the heal of your landing foot; instead, land on the ball of your landing foot. Suddenly, Randy Johnson was a control pitcher with power. 

Could it really be just that simple with a guy like Pagan? I wonder...

Great stuff, Nick!

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If it makes anyone feel better about a possible slow start, the Twins were the only team in the AL Central over .500 on April 30th and May 31st last year. Cleveland didn't get to .500 until June 8th last year. They won 8 out of 10 and briefly took over first at that time. So, yes, the games all count the same, but any talk of bad April and Mays ending a season is overstated. And don't forget the well documented Braves team in 2021 roaring back after a brutal April through July. They didn't reach .500 until August 5th. A good start is definitely better than a bad start. But bad starts can be overcome. Bad finishes can't be. Just ask the 2021 Mets or 2022 Twins.

I guess that depends on what you mean bad starts, Cleveland was 10-12 on May 1st(21-24 on June 1st), and the Braves were 13-14 (25-26 on June 1st). Sure not the best starts or probably what they were hoping for but, it wasn't like they went into may 5 - 17 or 8 - 19. IMO those are bad starts, if the Twins are within a few games .500 starting May it may not be the start we are hoping for but certainly a start that keeps them alive,

On 3/22/2023 at 10:02 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Understand the skepticism with Pen but this seems a bit over the top………it’s like listing the line-up and stating why each guy COULD  hit under .220……In a group of 9-11 guys there will be some disappointments, but I think we can start with just Pagán & López as the suspect choices in our Pen.

These two have been targets for replacement in my comments at TD for 3-4 months. The bullpens 2nd half resurgence was, in my opinion, due to getting rid of under-performers (Smith - Duffey - etc.) as well as, the Pen’s ability to rack up smooth, stress-free, innings from late August through September after the crunch of being in first place.

Pagan & López have good stuff, but in my opinion, they don’t have the mental toughness nor the intestinal fortitude to pitch in big spots. I know López had a nice 3 months plus last year in Baltimore……lost 2 games to Twins before the trade. His 6 year history is brutal. Within throwing their exceptional stuff they both groove fastballs routinely.

Frankly, am struggling that Hoffman is in the mix for a roster spot as well.

Somebody has to pitch well - or Ok at least. I’m assuming that’s a healthy Alcala - Jax - Moran - Thielbar - Durán - maybe Winder/Sands - López/Pagán??? Am hoping for an adjustment in management thinking  and we see SWR & Balazovic in relief sooner than later if there’s a need.

Fair enough, JD.  Totally agree that Pagán & López as the biggest suspect choices in our Pen.  I do have concerns about how Alcala bounces back from his elbow injury.

Hopefully the starters can (and are allowed to) go longer than last season which was one of the biggest issues with the bullpen - especially in the first half of the season.